Addressing vulnerability toclimate variability and change

through an assessment of issuesand options

TERI studySupported by The World Bank

December 2006

Study highlights

• Rationale:– agriculture an important sector, sensitive to climate,

millions dependent• Overall goal:

– Identify issues and opportunities that enhance thecoping capacities of communities in dealingeffectively with climatic extremes including droughtsand floods

• Timeframe: started May 2005 (still continuing)

Broad objectives• Reviewing coping strategies being employed by

communities in India and assessing issues andopportunities for adaptation

» study focus on drought and flood affected regions» distinguish between reactive temporary mechanisms and

measures for strengthening the adaptive capacities» links with developmental aspects will be explored

• Assessing the effectiveness with which copingmeasures are being employed and the factorsinfluencing their implementation

• Identifying/ suggesting measures to enhanceadaptive capacities

» Incremental in nature than those currently being employedto cope during with such circumstances

Preliminary discussions and consultationsPennar in Andhra Pradesh, Mahanadi in Orissa,Godavari in Maharashtra

Basin selection and mappingof vulnerability

GIS based quantitative analysis forselection of districts within sites

1) InfrastructureDevelopment

2) Irrigated area3) Presence of

agricultural creditsocieties

1) Labourer/Cultivator Ratio

2) Land undercultivation

3) Populationdensity

1) Soil severity2) Soil cover3) Groundwater

exploitation

Economic &technologicalvulnerability

Social vulnerabilityPhysical vulnerability

Quantitative Indicators

Principles, Criteria and Indicators Approach to quantitatively assess the vulnerabilityaspects

AP VulnerabilityIndex

Focus: Chittoorand Anantapur1991: Anantapur –very high vul &Chittoor – high vul2001: Shift to high vulin AnantapurKURNOOL

ADILABAD

KHAMMAM

ANANTAPUR

PRAKASAM

CHITTOOR

NELLORECUDDAPAH

MEDAK

GUNTUR

NALGONDA

MAHBUBNAGAR

WARANGAL

KRISHNA

KARIMNAGAR

VISAKHAPATNAM

NIZAMABAD

EAST GODAVARI

RANGAREDDI

SRIKAKULAM

WEST GODAVARI

VIZIANAGARAM

HYDERABAD

Selection of villages

Gada Sampat, Deipur,Raibaidar, Tarasahi,Naugaon, Sunadia Kanda

Puri andJagatsinghpur

Orissa

Karanji, Malewadi,Hiwrebazaar, Karegaon,Korhate

Ahmednagar andNasik

Maharashtra

Katherapalli, PathpalayamHarijanwada,Chinnapongapalle,Neramatla, Manesamudram,and Brahmanapalle

Chittoor andAnantapur

AndhraPradesh

VillagesDistrictsState

Case study: Andhra Pradesh• In all 23 districts, 13

declared drought prone• Three regions: Coastal,

Telangana andRayalseema

• FOCUS REGION:Rayalseema,

• Lies in the Pennar RiverBasin

• Comprises districts ofChittoor, Anantapur,Kurnool & Cuddapah.

• FOCUS DISTRICTS:Chittoor &Anantapur

• SURVEYS: 6 villages, 2 perdistrict

Agro-climatic conditions of thePennar

• Rainfed; lies in the rain shadow of W. Ghats,lowest rainfall among the three regions (650mm/year).

• Predominantly covered by red and black soil, poornutrient quality.

• Chittoor: dry-sub-humid zone, 700-1000 mm/yearaverage rainfall, red loamy soils, cultivation ofpaddy and sugarcane possible.

• Anantapur: scarce rainfall zone, 500-700 mm/yraverage rainfall, red sandy soils, cultivation ofcoarse millets, pulses, groundnut

• Chittoor more favourable agro-climatically,irrigation (31 % as opposed to 12 % in Anantapur)

Defining the baseline

• Focus largely on agricultural dependentcommunities and households.

• Unit of investigation: land categories (LC)• Households chosen based on stratified random

sampling, and classified into four LCs: large (> 4acres), medium (1-3 acres), small/marginal (< 1acres) and landless.

• Number of households surveyed: 570• Concentration of households in the medium (47%)

and landless categories (30%)

Baseline contd….• Information on incomes of households collected for a

‘normal year’ and an ‘impact (drought) year’.• Incomes classified as Agricultural (cultivation and

agricultural labour AL) and Non Agricultural (NonAgricultural Labour NAL, Petty Business, Dairy andRemittances).

• Agriculture (climate-sensitive) main source of income(82% in Chittoor, 95% in Anantapur). This means thatvulnerability to climatic stress is congruously high.

• However, differential vulnerabilities exist givena.geographical location, agro-climatic conditionsb.degree of dependence on agriculture, safety nets,

infrastructural facilities, institutions/social networks etc

Sources of Income

• Average annual NY incomes higher in Chittoor (Rs32650), than Anantapur (Rs 22300).

• LC 1: 81% of income from cultivation. Second largestsource is NAL (higher incomes obtained, as educationallows for taking up jobs as teachers, doctors, ingovernment etc). Income diversification (income apartfrom agriculture) limited, as reliant on safety nets builtup in a normal year.

• LC 2: little more than half of their income fromcultivation, with the rest divided between AL and NAL.

• LC3 and LC 4: AL is major source of income.• LC1 and LC 4: extreme cases.

Impacts, Coping and AdaptiveStrategies

• Terms cannot be clubbed into water-tightcompartments, define for each case study. E.g.,distress sale as an impact or as a coping measure.

• Impacts: drops in agricultural production/productivity,water scarcity, food intake, consumption expenditure,drop out of school and health status.

• Coping : short-term/proactive: distress sale, shift inoccupation, temp migration, availing of credit/loan,changes in cropping pattern

• Adaptive: long-term/reactive/boosts resilience: incomediversification (one main activity, with a cluster ofactivities supplementing it).

Impact indicators• Fall in acreage, water availability and crop

production– 44 to 100 % (acreage)– Production only 4 % on comparison with normal

year– Depth of water 300 to 400 feet

• Health and education, varies acrosslandholdings– 12 % reported ill-health and 10 % fall-out on

education• Sharp decline in incomes

– Highest impact on cultivators (large landholders)• Monotonic relationship between large

landholdings and proportion of incomes

Impact on Incomes

• A vast drop in total average incomes of 65%• Drop in incomes decreasing from larger to smaller

land categories• Drops in income from cultivation are 92 %. All land

owning categories experience similar drops• Drops in income from dairy activities are 40%• Labour incomes increases by 46% for households

that fall in the large land category• Remittance income registers a marginal increase of

3 %

World Bank Study – droughts in AP

• Income proxy of wellbeing.

• Income Impact Indexacross land categoriesand villages

• Coping Variables:Distinguish b/w ‘reactivetemporary’ & ‘long-term’measures.

• Identifying significantvariables that helphouseholds ‘maintain’income levels, i.e., cope.

Income Impact IndexMean income = (Normal+Impactincome)/2Variance =

Standard deviation = square root(variance)Coefficient of Variation = (Standarddeviation/mean)*100

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Income Impact Index

• Quantitative Assessment of vulnerability.• Assumption: households undertaking ‘income-

smoothening activities’ (coping/adaptive), exhibitlower deviation in incomes from normal year.

• Values obtained maybe incongruous withperception (e.g., Brahmanapalle). But, credibilityin facts, since perceptions may be misleading!

• Significant strategies: availing credit/loans(68%), distress sale (33%, mainly jewellery), andshift in occupation (28%)

Community responses• Strategies deployed/developed by

communities– Change in cropping intensity– Income diversification– Distress sale of cattle, land and jewellery– Credits/ loans

• External factors that aid response to climaticstress– Infrastructure development

• Village Neramatla and its dependence on agriculture• Village Mansamudram and connectivities

– Income diversification• Proximity to a town/ city; village Katherapalli

– Ability to diversify cropping patterns

Institutional/ non-institutionalfactors

• Role of government departments in enhancingadaptive capacities through implementation of plansand programmes

• Policies of the government to help communities copewith current climatic variability and drought and floodmitigation

• Role of local institutions in strengthening capacities:SHGs, banks and agricultural credit societies

• Role of community institutions and their strengths• Role of private sector

Issues for consideration

• Obtained from the simultaneous regressionequation.

• Identifies variables that can lower the III (deviationsbetween NY and DY incomes), and hence can feedinto policy interventions.

• Significant variables:• Education(formal/skillsets): increases ability to

diversify.a. No. of working members in the family (especially

for LC4): more helping hands, brings in moreincome.

b. Indebtedness ratio (credit/loan:NY income): higherthe ratio, the lesser the gap, as this amount is usedto tide over the stress period.

Thank you