Post on 26-Jan-2015
description
Mobile Games in China
August 2013
2009~2014 China’s Market Size Of Mobile Game
Source: iResearch Annual Data Report On Mobile Game 2012
? 数据 Q1-Q2 2013 Sum-up ?
Share of New Titles by Genre
38.92%
16.02%
9.34%
8.95%
8.14%
CasualStrategyCard BattleActionSportRPGCardAdventureOther
Card battle titles became the new hot spot. While casual titles are still CP’s first choice for entry to market.
Data Source: TalkingGame
Revenue Share by Genre
36.8%
11.7%
16.2%
20.9%
4.7% 5.0%
2.2% 0.8% 1.7%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Card Battle Strategy MMORPG T-RPG Action Card Tower Def Casual Other
Data Source: TalkingGame
Main stream titles are quality challenged
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Rating for main steam titles in China
Homogenization of titles are overwhelming. Copycats everywhere right after the entry of new starred titles
TalkingGame Matrix for Rating
Metrics for Rating: TalkingData Analytics Mobile Game Evaluation Matrix
Data Source: TalkingGame R
even
ue
Sh
are
AR
PD
AU
Retention Rate
Day7 Retention
%
Day
14
Ret
enti
on%
Day14
Retention%
15-day LTV
Game Mechanic
User Life time
Organic Users
UE
Marketing Forces
R&D Forces
35%
25%
22%
14%
3%
1%
0% 50%
<¥1
¥1~$2
¥2~¥3
¥3~¥5
¥5~¥10
>¥10 Titles…
Passing Line: LTV¥3
80% of all titles are Non-profitable
2.3
3.2
2013 Q1 2013 Q2
CPA nearly doubled from Q1 to Q2, 2013
60%+
80% titles still unbalanced for a new user 30 days after the acquisition
CPA¥3
Data Source: TalkingGame
盘点 ! 建议 User Behavior
Changes ?
Mobile game user playing time is fragmented
20.1
18.2 18.8
16.8 17.4
16.7
15.5 15.7
16.6
15.6
14.7 14.6 15.2
10
15
20
25
2012-6 2012-7 2012-8 2012-9 2012-10 2012-11 2012-12 2013-1 2013-2 2013-3 2013-4 2013-5 2013-6
3
4
5
6
每日游戏次数 每日游戏时长
Playing time per user spends on each game is dropping significantly from Q2, 2012 although total number of game sessions per user per day is keeping steady
Mins Sessions
Daily Game Sessions
Daily Playing Time
Data Source: TalkingGame
Day1 Retention Trend For New Plays Q1-Q2, 2013
Too many options for users in the crowded market. Significant dropping trend of the Day1 retention for each individual title
30.6%
28.4% 28.8% 28.6% 28.7%
27.1% 26.5%
25.8% 26.4%
25.6% 25.1% 25.2%
24.7%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
2012.6 2012.8 2012.10 2012.12 2013.2 2013.4 2013.6
Competition is intense. The red sea is coming?
Data Source: TalkingGame
盘点 ! 建议 Q3-Q4 Outlook
?
LTV still keeping down
1.9
2.4
2.8 3.0
1.8
2.3
2.7 2.8
0
1
2
3
4
3-Day LTV 7-Day LTV 14-DayLTV 30-Day LTV
Q1 LTV(¥) Q2 LTV(¥)
Compared with Q1,Q2 LTV fell down instead of rising up as expected
LTV : Revenue contribution after certain days since acquisition per new user
Q1LTV boosted by the Spring Festival season
The massive market does not look optimistic
Data Source: TalkingGame
0
1
2
3
4
LT-1
LT-3
LT-5
LT-7
LT-9
LT-1
1
LT-1
3
LT-1
5
LT-1
7
LT-1
9
LT-2
1
LT-2
3
LT-2
5
LT-2
7
LT-2
9
LT-3
5
LT-4
5
LT-5
5
LT-9
0
IAPs and campaigns only focus on short term, perform insufficiently for long term development. Revenue growth nearly stops after 2 weeks for new users since acquisition.
3d 1.3
7d 1.8
14d 2.7 30d 2.85 90d 2.95
Main stream titles operation is unhealthy UA-focused can not push effective monetization
Data Source: TalkingGame
盘点 ! 建议 Operation for
Chinese Market ?
UA Channels: Fragmented
3rd Party App Store Social Network
Other
Ad Network
Platform
CPA:Android ¥3~6;iOS ¥5~20 Conversion%(click->install):Android 1%~3%;iOS 1%~5%
Data Source: TalkingData Campaign
5% 30%
5% 10%
50%
0%
20%
40%
60%
Background
Relationship
MarketManual Taste
Data
Key Factors For Evaluation • Background
– CP’s branding awareness and background
influence deeply on PR and promotion
result
• Relationship
– This is must-have in China
– Especially with special resources
• Reference
– Proven references from other platforms or
the market add significant credit
• Manual Taste
– Manually test on genre, mechanic, art,
compatibility, tutorial and every aspect is
the most direct way to evaluate
• Data
– Test with trial promotion resources and the
performance data will tell the truth
Mobile Game Evaluation System For Publishing Platform
Quick Key Metrics Evaluation System
Key Metrics
Questions Answered
Calculation
Reference
Organic New Self-promotion & viral capability
Avg. daily organic installs
>200
Day1 Retention First time experience reflection
Day1 retained user counts / Day0 new user counts
30%
Day 7 Retention Sustaining activation of users
Day7 retained user counts / Day0 new user counts
12%
Monthly Paying Rate
Ratio of paid users Monthly paid user counts / MAU
Depends on genre 2~5%
14-day LTV Rev contribution after 14 days per user since acquisition
Rev. within 14 days from new users / Daily new user counts
¥2.5
60-day LTV / 30-day LTV
Long term monetization potential
60-day LTV / 30-day LTV
1.3
Data Source: TalkingGame
Key Metrics Evaluation & Comparison
41.2%
3.7%
9.0%
28.4%
21.8%
10.9%
39.8%
8.5%
16.3%
31.2%
24.2%
12.1%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
One-day user%
Day30 Retention%
Day7 Retention%
Day1 Retention%
30-day Active%
7-day Active%
Card Battle Genre Avg. Total Avg.
Data Source: TalkingGame
数据观察 Succeed with Data !
Data-driven Success
20
Data-driven Success A
A
R R
R
• Metrics System
• Tool to power up
• Workflow
TalkingData AARRR Metric System
21
Refer
Revenue
Retention
Activation
Acquisition
Monetization
Conversion
Engagement
Acquisition
TalkingData AARRR Metric System
22
• Install / Sign-ups By campaign/channel CAC(Channel) Conversion (Channel) • Organic Users • Marketing Users • Click -to- Install -to- Sync • Fake Users • New User Perception Perception by Channel
• DAU • MAU • Next Day Activities • Usage Login times Login length • Monthly Active Days
• DAU/MAU • Retention 1 day/ 7day 30day • Engagement
Monthly Logins per User Lifetime sessions 1~10-day activity after Install • User lifetime
Retention Activation Acquisition
ACQ = F(Campaign,channel, Users,CAC, Conv%)
ACT = F(First time Experience,Usage,Design/UX)
RET = F(User guide,operation,task,alert)
Players & Channels Engagement
TalkingData AARRR Metric System
23
• ARPU(Monthly) • ARPPU(Avg. Revenue per Paying
User
• LTV (lifetime value) • Virtual currency purchased/spent
By level/By date By types purchased • Paying users(%) • New paying users • Time/level of first charge • Whale
Revenue Refer
REV = F(Charge trap,whale, Conv%)
• K-factor • Invites Per DAU Per who send invite • Invite accept(%) • Times By type Massages E-mail • Cohort by invitee Revenue ARPU
REF = F(Excitation,UX)
Monetization Viral
TalkingData White Paper For Mobile Game Data Analysis
24
• Standard and unified definitions
of all the Key metrics based on AARRR model system
• Benchmarking enabled to help generate valuable insight of your data
Key Metrics
New Player Acquisition & Tutorial
Activation & Retention
Engagement & Behavior
IAP Drill-down
Player Segmentation
Right Tool to Power up
Real- time
Best
Practices
Retention is KING!
A Data-driven F2P Card Battle Game
Red Infinity was established in 2010 and has rich experience in product development and publishing. The company has become one of the industry leaders in just one year.
MAU 4,000,000
Data-driven Workflow
Description ★ TouchArcade.com HOT NEW GAME ★
Versions Initial release:Sep 14, 2012 Enhanced version:Nov 1, 2012
F2P Puzzle + Battle + Collection
DAU/MAU
Day 1 retention
Day 7 retention
Conversions(%)
Virtual Expense
Behavior
KPIs
Tracking
Measure & Analysis
Solution Optimize
Testify
The key metric to track during initial stage
First time experience and impression
Acceptance of the theme, content, visual quality, arts…
Day 1 Retention
18.6% VS Avg.
Day 1 Retention for card games
~30%
Benchmark:
Bad Day1 retention rate, but steady for Day2 and subsequence.
Something must be wrong with the new player initialization stage!
34
Load
Sign up
Create Character
Start Tutorial
Finish Tutorial
Conversion Funnel for initial stage
Frequent Connectivity Failure Tutorial suddenly lost
Step 1 – Enhancement
Move to more stable IDC
Dedicated server for domestic players
Simplify and enhance tutorial
Polish UI to gain more visual attraction
Solutions
Step 2 – Optimization
Localize to fulfill local players’ preference
Theme Core UX Art
Testify & Ongoing Optimization
Result of daily incentive boost, e.g. Login bonus
How are core players growing in game
Acceptance of difficulty settings for gaming
The key metric to reflect gameplay acceptance and performance of player engaging operations
Plenty of incentive activities
Mission complete bonus
Daily login bonus
Free cards offer
Friends alliance
⋯⋯
But
Day 7 Retention
9.2% VS Avg.
Day 7 Retention for card games
~15%
Benchmark:
Significant player Drop off at the growing levels(16-30)
Something wrong with the gameplay design at these levels
Analysis by Churning Level Distribution
Option1: Players Power-up
Higher winning rate of powerful card lottery
Stronger friend alliance for early stage players
More chance to get enhancing virtual items
Solutions
Option2: Weaken Challenges
Lower monster’s numbers to bring down mission completion difficulty
Easier player advancing at growing stages
Day 7 Retention
13.6% Avg.
A/B Analysis & Ongoing Optimization
Test in App store,Without Marketing.
Thanks
www.TalkingGame.com
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