Joint Subcommittee on the Future Competitiveness of

Virginia Higher EducationDemography, Planning and Measuring Success:

Why They Matter

September 14, 2015Peter Blake

Wendy KangTod Massa

1

Agenda

2

Virginia Demographics and Trends

Virginia Plan for Higher Education

Measuring Student Success

72

41

36

17

18

12

10

12

16

32

24

7

11

11

0% 25% 50% 75% 100%

1973

2010

2020

High school or less

Some college Associate’s Bachelor’s Master’s

and above

Educational Demand for Jobs Increasing

3Source: Georgetown Center on Education and Workforce Analysis, “Recovery: Job Growth and Education Requirements through 2020”.

Employer Needs

4

It’s not just technical skills…….

96%of all occupations

require critical thinking and

active listening 70%

of all occupations require

mathematical knowledge

Source: Georgetown Center on Education and Workforce Analysis, “Recovery: Job Growth and Education Requirements through 2020”.

• Individual• Non-market

• Market• Society

Greater social cohesion, trust and tolerance

Increased tax revenues, less

burden on public finance

Higher earnings and

lower unemployment

Greater propensity to

volunteer, better health, greater life satisfaction

Benefits of Broad Based Education

5

Population in Virginia Shifting

6

25

24

24

64

64

58

11

12

19

2010

2020

2030

Under 18 18-64 65 and over

Source: US Census Bureau

High School Graduates Changing

7

2755,896

16,643

7,720

45,766

30110,098

17,236

11,727

43,335

AmericanIndian/AlaskanNative

Asian/Pacific Islander

Black, Non-Hispanic

Hispanic/Latino

White, non-

2027-28

2014-15

Source: WICHE

Financial Need Growing

8

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%Percent of Overall Enrollment Demonstrating Need

4-year average

VCCS average

Source: SCHEV staff analysis

9

Changing Higher Ed Costs

$7,881$8,430

$11,703

$8,302$8,479

$6,223 $6,471

$6,048$6,963 $6,819

$8,531

$9,935 $11,329 $11,500$12,182

$13,471

$15,727$14,872

$16,403 $16,088$16,980

1992-93 1994-95 1996-97 1998-99 2000-01 2002-03 2004-05 2006-07 2008-09 2010-11 2012-13 2014-15 2015-16

General Fund per In-State FTE Nongeneral Fund per Total FTE

Average Funding per FTE Student at Four-Year Institutions(in 2015-16 Constant Dollars)

Source: SCHEV staff analysis

Changing Higher Ed Costs

10

Changing Higher Ed Costs

11

28%

30%

32% 32% 32%31%

32%

35%36%

37%

42%42%

43%

35%

37%

39%38%

36%

32%33%

34%

36%

38%

42%

43%

47%48%

Average Public Four-Year Total Resident Undergraduate ChargesAs a Percent of Per Capita Disposable Income

Virginia

National

Source: SCHEV staff analysis

12

TOP ISSUES IN HIGHER EDUCATION, 2015ASSOCIATION OF GOVERNING BOARDS

(AGB)AMERICAN

ASSOCIATION OF STATE COLLEGES AND UNIVERSITIES

(AASCU)“Top 10 State Policy

Issuesfor 2015”

(Published in January 2015)

COUNCIL OF STATE GOVERNMENTS

“Top 5 Issues in 2015, Education”

(Published in January 2015)

EDUCATION COMMISSION OF THE

STATES (ECS)“Governors’ Top Education Issues,

2015”(Published in Feb

2015)

EDUVENTURES“Top Predictions for Higher Education in

2015”(Published in

December 2014)

“Top Public Policy Issues, 2015-16”

(Published in March 2015)

“Top 10 Strategic Issues for Boards,

2013-14” (2013)

1-Financial Challenges and Constraints

1-The Revenue Model

1-Tuition Policy1-School Readiness for All

1-Early Learning1-Competency-based direct assessment will grow.

2-College Access and Affordability

2-Productivity andEfficiency

2-State Appropriations for Higher Education

2-Experiential and Work-based Learning

2-School Finance2-Higher ed spending on IT will pick up speed.

3-College Completion 3-Student Aid3-Campus Sexual Assault

3-Academic Success for At-risk Populations

3-School Choice3-Online learning will grow modestly.

4-Institutional Performance Metrics

4-Educational Delivery

4-Veterans Education Benefits

4-Innovative State Accountability Systems

4-Teaching Quality4-Institutional debt will bubble over.

5-Sexual Assault 5-Student Learning5-Undocumented Students

5-Advance Attainment of Degrees, Certificates and High-quality Credentials

5-Workforce Development / Career and Technical Education

5-Reliance on non-alumni philanthropic support will grow.

6-Increased Scrutiny of Collegiate Athletics

6-Student Success 6-Guns on Campus6-Postsecondary Funding, Affordability and Access

6-Outcomes will continue to lead the conversation.

7-Affirmative Action 7-Market and Mission7-Secondary--Postsecondary Standards Alignment

8-Data Privacy8-The Academic Workforce

8-State Student Aid Programs

9-Change in the Regulatory Landscape

9-Globalization9-Performance Based Funding

10-Institutional Risk10-Free Community College

13

Best Educated State by

2030

Virginia Plan for Higher

Education

Agenda

14

Virginia Student Demographics and Trends

Virginia Plan for Higher Education

Measuring Student Success

Stakeholder Input: Five Themes and Their Success Factors

15

Enhance Culture of LearningAccessible Pathways

Seamless Transfer/ArticulationAffordable Tuition/Net Price

Needs-Based AidManage Total Price of Completion

Accelerate Completion TimeRecognize Regional Variations

Respond to Changing DemographyNurture Pre-K-20 Pipeline

High School Bridge ProgramsImprove College ReadinessElevate Completion RatesDegree Completion Tracks

Institutional LeadershipDependable State Funding

Streamline Mandates/RegulationDeliver Expected Outcomes/Value

Improve Productivity/EfficiencyAchieve Innovation at Scale

Collaboration/Collective ActionShared Services

New Revenue StreamsLeverage Technology-Based Tools/

Practices/ExperiencesRefine Capital Construction Model

Institutional LeadershipDistinctiveness of Virginia Institutions

Excellence in Performance/Outcomes/Value

Academic QualityCompetitive Salaries & CompensationInnovation in New Modes of Learning

Resilience/Responsiveness

Higher Education is Critical to P&EVAchieve a Well-Prepared Workforce,

at All LevelsSupport Regional

Distinctiveness/DevelopmentIncrease/Leverage Research Activity

Accelerate Entrepreneurship/InnovationCommercialize Ideas/VenturesEliminate Impediments/Barriers

Support Clusters/Centers of Excellence

Access/Affordability Student Success Excellence

Sustainability Prosperity & Economic Vitality

Among Stakeholders who contributed:

• College and HS students, teachers and administrators

• Business and Community Leaders, VBHEC, VA Chamber of Commerce

• Legislative and Executive Leaders and Staff

• SCHEV Council and Staff• COP Presidents Advisory Group• FAC and IPAC

Graduates Prepared for Useful Lives:

-Critical Thinking Skills-Active Citizens

-Employability/Work Habits-Capacity for Perpetual

Learning

GOAL: Provide Affordable Access for All

• Expand outreach to PK-12 and traditionally underserved populations

• Improve the college readiness of all students

• Cultivate affordable postsecondary education pathways for traditional, non-traditional and returning students

• Align state appropriations, financial aid and tuition and fees such that students have broader access to postsecondary education opportunities regardless of their ability to pay

16

GOAL: Optimize Student Success for Work and Life

• Strengthen curricular options to ensure that graduates are prepared with the competencies necessary for employment and civic engagement

• Provide effective academic and student services infrastructures focused on persistence and completion

• Increase on-time completion of certificates and degrees

• Engage adults and veterans in certificate and degree completion and lifelong learning

17

GOAL: Drive Change and Improvement through Investment and Innovation

• Identify and implement public funding strategies to sustain long-term planning and responsiveness

• Cultivate innovations that enrich quality, promote collaboration and improve efficiency

• Foster faculty excellence, scholarship and diversity

• Enhance higher education leadership, governance and accountability

18

GOAL: Advance the Economic and Cultural Prosperity of the Commonwealth and its Regions

• Build a competitive, future-ready workforce for all regions

• Be a catalyst for entrepreneurship and a model for business incubation

• Target funding, resources and partnerships to support research and development

• Expand participation and engagement in public and institutional service to the community

19

• Demonstrate the impact of higher education on state and regional economic development

Measuring our progress

20

Awards Research

Student Success Price

Affordability Economic Prosperity

State Level Measures and Targets

Awards

21

Grant 1.5 million degrees and workforce credentials by 2030, including those that close the gap in unfilled jobs

-

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

-

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

Annual awards Cumulative Awards

Success

22

Annually improve completion rates that close the gap between underrepresented populations and

traditional students by 2030

8263

42

7155

32

Public 4-year Private 4-year 2-year

Traditional students Underrepresented

11

11

10

*2006-07 cohort for 4-year/2008-09 cohort for 2-year). Completion rates based on Student Success Index

Affordability

23

Meet half of the cost of attendance for low- and middle-income students through expected family contribution and

state and federal grant aid by 2030

Cost of Attendance

50%

Work, institutional aid, loans

50%Expected family

contribution, state and

federal aid

Affordability

24

Meet half of the cost of attendance for low- and middle-income students through expected family contribution and

state and federal grant aid by 2030

Cost of Attendance

Current state

Research

25

Increase Virginia’s research expenditures as a percent of national totals by 30 percent by 2030

2.14 2.75

2013-14 2029-30

Source: National Science Foundation, Institution reported expenditures from all sources for Federal Fiscal Year 2013

$1.4B

$2.4B(estimated)

(% of US total)

Price

26

Keep undergraduate net tuition and fees as a percentage of family income lower the national average and less than 10% of low- and middle-income students

$0

$50,000

$100,000

Low Middle

Net Tuition and Fees

TotalIncome10.1%

8.7%

Economic Prosperity

27

Ensure that 75% of graduates earn sustainable wages after 3 years

Goal

75%

Current State

72%

Agenda

28

Virginia Student Demographics and Trends

Virginia Plan for Higher Education

Measuring Student Success

Student Success

29

Measures: Traditional graduation ratesStudent success index (SSI)

Average time to degree

Initiatives:State and institution

Graduation Rates by State

14%15%

18%26%27%

29%38%38%

40%41%42%

43%43%43%44%

45%46%46%47%48%48%48%48%49%49%49%50%

52%53%53%53%

54%54%55%56%56%57%57%57%58%58%

60%61%61%61%61%61%62%62%

63%65%

67%69%70%70%

73%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%American Samoa

Northern Marianas

Guam

Idaho

Arkansas

Puerto Rico

Oklahoma

Georgia

Kentucky

Hawaii

Tennessee

South Dakota

Florida

Mississippi

Ohio

Indiana

Wyoming

Oregon

Nebraska

Rhode Island

Minnesota

Michigan

South Carolina

Connecticut

Vermont

California

New Hampshire

Virginia

Six-Year Graduation Rates at Public Four-Year InstitutionsDelaware

Iowa

30

Traditional Graduation Rates (1998, 2001)

31

Traditional Graduation Rates (2008, 2011)

32

Change in Six-Year Graduation Rates (1998, 2008)

33

Student Success Index, 4-Years

34

Student Success Index, 2-Years

35

SSI by Institution

36

Average Time-to-Degree

37

Differences in Student Success (public four-years)

38

Family Income and Graduation Rate

39

Unmet Financial Need and Graduation Rates

40

The Impact of Student Effort

41

Initiatives Focused on Student Success

42

Data analysis: Identify factors that correlate with student success

Promising practices: Identify and support practices that create affordable pathways and student success

Policy review: Identify opportunities to strengthen financial aid and other polices

Sample Institutional Practices

43

Pathway Programs

Predictive Analytics

Living Learning

Communities

High Impact Education

TechnologySpecial terms/

Summer Schools

Joint Subcommittee on the Future Competitiveness of

Virginia Higher EducationDemography, Planning and Measuring Success:

Why They Matter

September 14, 2015Peter Blake

Wendy KangTod Massa

44