Joint Subcommittee on the Future Competitiveness of Higher...
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Joint Subcommittee on the Future Competitiveness of Virginia Higher Education Demography, Planning and Measuring Success: Why They Matter September 14, 2015 Peter Blake Wendy Kang Tod Massa 1
Transcript of Joint Subcommittee on the Future Competitiveness of Higher...
Joint Subcommittee on the Future Competitiveness of
Virginia Higher EducationDemography, Planning and Measuring Success:
Why They Matter
September 14, 2015Peter Blake
Wendy KangTod Massa
1
Agenda
2
Virginia Demographics and Trends
Virginia Plan for Higher Education
Measuring Student Success
72
41
36
17
18
12
10
12
16
32
24
7
11
11
0% 25% 50% 75% 100%
1973
2010
2020
High school or less
Some college Associate’s Bachelor’s Master’s
and above
Educational Demand for Jobs Increasing
3Source: Georgetown Center on Education and Workforce Analysis, “Recovery: Job Growth and Education Requirements through 2020”.
Employer Needs
4
It’s not just technical skills…….
96%of all occupations
require critical thinking and
active listening 70%
of all occupations require
mathematical knowledge
Source: Georgetown Center on Education and Workforce Analysis, “Recovery: Job Growth and Education Requirements through 2020”.
• Individual• Non-market
• Market• Society
Greater social cohesion, trust and tolerance
Increased tax revenues, less
burden on public finance
Higher earnings and
lower unemployment
Greater propensity to
volunteer, better health, greater life satisfaction
Benefits of Broad Based Education
5
Population in Virginia Shifting
6
25
24
24
64
64
58
11
12
19
2010
2020
2030
Under 18 18-64 65 and over
Source: US Census Bureau
High School Graduates Changing
7
2755,896
16,643
7,720
45,766
30110,098
17,236
11,727
43,335
AmericanIndian/AlaskanNative
Asian/Pacific Islander
Black, Non-Hispanic
Hispanic/Latino
White, non-
2027-28
2014-15
Source: WICHE
Financial Need Growing
8
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%Percent of Overall Enrollment Demonstrating Need
4-year average
VCCS average
Source: SCHEV staff analysis
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Changing Higher Ed Costs
$7,881$8,430
$11,703
$8,302$8,479
$6,223 $6,471
$6,048$6,963 $6,819
$8,531
$9,935 $11,329 $11,500$12,182
$13,471
$15,727$14,872
$16,403 $16,088$16,980
1992-93 1994-95 1996-97 1998-99 2000-01 2002-03 2004-05 2006-07 2008-09 2010-11 2012-13 2014-15 2015-16
General Fund per In-State FTE Nongeneral Fund per Total FTE
Average Funding per FTE Student at Four-Year Institutions(in 2015-16 Constant Dollars)
Source: SCHEV staff analysis
Changing Higher Ed Costs
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Changing Higher Ed Costs
11
28%
30%
32% 32% 32%31%
32%
35%36%
37%
42%42%
43%
35%
37%
39%38%
36%
32%33%
34%
36%
38%
42%
43%
47%48%
Average Public Four-Year Total Resident Undergraduate ChargesAs a Percent of Per Capita Disposable Income
Virginia
National
Source: SCHEV staff analysis
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TOP ISSUES IN HIGHER EDUCATION, 2015ASSOCIATION OF GOVERNING BOARDS
(AGB)AMERICAN
ASSOCIATION OF STATE COLLEGES AND UNIVERSITIES
(AASCU)“Top 10 State Policy
Issuesfor 2015”
(Published in January 2015)
COUNCIL OF STATE GOVERNMENTS
“Top 5 Issues in 2015, Education”
(Published in January 2015)
EDUCATION COMMISSION OF THE
STATES (ECS)“Governors’ Top Education Issues,
2015”(Published in Feb
2015)
EDUVENTURES“Top Predictions for Higher Education in
2015”(Published in
December 2014)
“Top Public Policy Issues, 2015-16”
(Published in March 2015)
“Top 10 Strategic Issues for Boards,
2013-14” (2013)
1-Financial Challenges and Constraints
1-The Revenue Model
1-Tuition Policy1-School Readiness for All
1-Early Learning1-Competency-based direct assessment will grow.
2-College Access and Affordability
2-Productivity andEfficiency
2-State Appropriations for Higher Education
2-Experiential and Work-based Learning
2-School Finance2-Higher ed spending on IT will pick up speed.
3-College Completion 3-Student Aid3-Campus Sexual Assault
3-Academic Success for At-risk Populations
3-School Choice3-Online learning will grow modestly.
4-Institutional Performance Metrics
4-Educational Delivery
4-Veterans Education Benefits
4-Innovative State Accountability Systems
4-Teaching Quality4-Institutional debt will bubble over.
5-Sexual Assault 5-Student Learning5-Undocumented Students
5-Advance Attainment of Degrees, Certificates and High-quality Credentials
5-Workforce Development / Career and Technical Education
5-Reliance on non-alumni philanthropic support will grow.
6-Increased Scrutiny of Collegiate Athletics
6-Student Success 6-Guns on Campus6-Postsecondary Funding, Affordability and Access
6-Outcomes will continue to lead the conversation.
7-Affirmative Action 7-Market and Mission7-Secondary--Postsecondary Standards Alignment
8-Data Privacy8-The Academic Workforce
8-State Student Aid Programs
9-Change in the Regulatory Landscape
9-Globalization9-Performance Based Funding
10-Institutional Risk10-Free Community College
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Best Educated State by
2030
Virginia Plan for Higher
Education
Agenda
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Virginia Student Demographics and Trends
Virginia Plan for Higher Education
Measuring Student Success
Stakeholder Input: Five Themes and Their Success Factors
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Enhance Culture of LearningAccessible Pathways
Seamless Transfer/ArticulationAffordable Tuition/Net Price
Needs-Based AidManage Total Price of Completion
Accelerate Completion TimeRecognize Regional Variations
Respond to Changing DemographyNurture Pre-K-20 Pipeline
High School Bridge ProgramsImprove College ReadinessElevate Completion RatesDegree Completion Tracks
Institutional LeadershipDependable State Funding
Streamline Mandates/RegulationDeliver Expected Outcomes/Value
Improve Productivity/EfficiencyAchieve Innovation at Scale
Collaboration/Collective ActionShared Services
New Revenue StreamsLeverage Technology-Based Tools/
Practices/ExperiencesRefine Capital Construction Model
Institutional LeadershipDistinctiveness of Virginia Institutions
Excellence in Performance/Outcomes/Value
Academic QualityCompetitive Salaries & CompensationInnovation in New Modes of Learning
Resilience/Responsiveness
Higher Education is Critical to P&EVAchieve a Well-Prepared Workforce,
at All LevelsSupport Regional
Distinctiveness/DevelopmentIncrease/Leverage Research Activity
Accelerate Entrepreneurship/InnovationCommercialize Ideas/VenturesEliminate Impediments/Barriers
Support Clusters/Centers of Excellence
Access/Affordability Student Success Excellence
Sustainability Prosperity & Economic Vitality
Among Stakeholders who contributed:
• College and HS students, teachers and administrators
• Business and Community Leaders, VBHEC, VA Chamber of Commerce
• Legislative and Executive Leaders and Staff
• SCHEV Council and Staff• COP Presidents Advisory Group• FAC and IPAC
Graduates Prepared for Useful Lives:
-Critical Thinking Skills-Active Citizens
-Employability/Work Habits-Capacity for Perpetual
Learning
GOAL: Provide Affordable Access for All
• Expand outreach to PK-12 and traditionally underserved populations
• Improve the college readiness of all students
• Cultivate affordable postsecondary education pathways for traditional, non-traditional and returning students
• Align state appropriations, financial aid and tuition and fees such that students have broader access to postsecondary education opportunities regardless of their ability to pay
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GOAL: Optimize Student Success for Work and Life
• Strengthen curricular options to ensure that graduates are prepared with the competencies necessary for employment and civic engagement
• Provide effective academic and student services infrastructures focused on persistence and completion
• Increase on-time completion of certificates and degrees
• Engage adults and veterans in certificate and degree completion and lifelong learning
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GOAL: Drive Change and Improvement through Investment and Innovation
• Identify and implement public funding strategies to sustain long-term planning and responsiveness
• Cultivate innovations that enrich quality, promote collaboration and improve efficiency
• Foster faculty excellence, scholarship and diversity
• Enhance higher education leadership, governance and accountability
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GOAL: Advance the Economic and Cultural Prosperity of the Commonwealth and its Regions
• Build a competitive, future-ready workforce for all regions
• Be a catalyst for entrepreneurship and a model for business incubation
• Target funding, resources and partnerships to support research and development
• Expand participation and engagement in public and institutional service to the community
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• Demonstrate the impact of higher education on state and regional economic development
Measuring our progress
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Awards Research
Student Success Price
Affordability Economic Prosperity
State Level Measures and Targets
Awards
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Grant 1.5 million degrees and workforce credentials by 2030, including those that close the gap in unfilled jobs
-
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
-
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
Annual awards Cumulative Awards
Success
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Annually improve completion rates that close the gap between underrepresented populations and
traditional students by 2030
8263
42
7155
32
Public 4-year Private 4-year 2-year
Traditional students Underrepresented
11
11
10
*2006-07 cohort for 4-year/2008-09 cohort for 2-year). Completion rates based on Student Success Index
Affordability
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Meet half of the cost of attendance for low- and middle-income students through expected family contribution and
state and federal grant aid by 2030
Cost of Attendance
50%
Work, institutional aid, loans
50%Expected family
contribution, state and
federal aid
Affordability
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Meet half of the cost of attendance for low- and middle-income students through expected family contribution and
state and federal grant aid by 2030
Cost of Attendance
Current state
Research
25
Increase Virginia’s research expenditures as a percent of national totals by 30 percent by 2030
2.14 2.75
2013-14 2029-30
Source: National Science Foundation, Institution reported expenditures from all sources for Federal Fiscal Year 2013
$1.4B
$2.4B(estimated)
(% of US total)
Price
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Keep undergraduate net tuition and fees as a percentage of family income lower the national average and less than 10% of low- and middle-income students
$0
$50,000
$100,000
Low Middle
Net Tuition and Fees
TotalIncome10.1%
8.7%
Economic Prosperity
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Ensure that 75% of graduates earn sustainable wages after 3 years
Goal
75%
Current State
72%
Agenda
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Virginia Student Demographics and Trends
Virginia Plan for Higher Education
Measuring Student Success
Student Success
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Measures: Traditional graduation ratesStudent success index (SSI)
Average time to degree
Initiatives:State and institution
Graduation Rates by State
14%15%
18%26%27%
29%38%38%
40%41%42%
43%43%43%44%
45%46%46%47%48%48%48%48%49%49%49%50%
52%53%53%53%
54%54%55%56%56%57%57%57%58%58%
60%61%61%61%61%61%62%62%
63%65%
67%69%70%70%
73%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%American Samoa
Northern Marianas
Guam
Idaho
Arkansas
Puerto Rico
Oklahoma
Georgia
Kentucky
Hawaii
Tennessee
South Dakota
Florida
Mississippi
Ohio
Indiana
Wyoming
Oregon
Nebraska
Rhode Island
Minnesota
Michigan
South Carolina
Connecticut
Vermont
California
New Hampshire
Virginia
Six-Year Graduation Rates at Public Four-Year InstitutionsDelaware
Iowa
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Traditional Graduation Rates (1998, 2001)
31
Traditional Graduation Rates (2008, 2011)
32
Change in Six-Year Graduation Rates (1998, 2008)
33
Student Success Index, 4-Years
34
Student Success Index, 2-Years
35
SSI by Institution
36
Average Time-to-Degree
37
Differences in Student Success (public four-years)
38
Family Income and Graduation Rate
39
Unmet Financial Need and Graduation Rates
40
The Impact of Student Effort
41
Initiatives Focused on Student Success
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Data analysis: Identify factors that correlate with student success
Promising practices: Identify and support practices that create affordable pathways and student success
Policy review: Identify opportunities to strengthen financial aid and other polices
Sample Institutional Practices
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Pathway Programs
Predictive Analytics
Living Learning
Communities
High Impact Education
TechnologySpecial terms/
Summer Schools
Joint Subcommittee on the Future Competitiveness of
Virginia Higher EducationDemography, Planning and Measuring Success:
Why They Matter
September 14, 2015Peter Blake
Wendy KangTod Massa
44
