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description
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Welcome
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#IndyRocknRoll
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Who are the referendum swing voters? Mark Diffley, Ipsos MORI Scotland 14 August 2013
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A ‘Yes’ vote is a considerable challenge
Data taken from MORI and Ipsos MORI polling (1999-07 data taken from Scottish Social Attitudes Survey)
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10
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Su
pp
ort
fo
r in
de
pe
nd
en
ce
(%
)
Introduction of the poll tax
in Scotland Devolution referendum
Scottish Parliament opens
Devolution referendum
SNP form minority
government
SNP form majority
government
Edinburgh
Agreement
signed
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Base: All certain to vote. Data collected among c1,000 Scottish adults aged 18+ each wave.
60% 57% 50% 55% 58% 55% 59%
35% 38% 39% 35% 30% 34% 31%
Yes
No
January
2012
February
2013
June
2012
October
2012
May
2013
August
2011
December
2011
The current state of play…
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Q. Should Scotland be an independent country?
Base: All certain to vote = 74% (3,704). Data collected among quarterly among c1,000 Scottish adults 18+ Jan 2012 – May 2013
49% 61%
51% 52% 55% 64%
15%
79% 94%
84%
41% 27%
41% 35% 35% 24%
72%
11% 4% 10% Yes
No
Men Women Gen. Y Gen. X Baby
Boomers
Pre-
war
SNP Labour Cons. Lib
Dem
… and how it breaks down
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% Yes
<25%
25%>35%
35%>50%
>50%
Mapping the Yes vote
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Q. Should Scotland be an independent country?
33%
67%
Yes
No
May 2013
Base: All certain to vote and definitely decided how they will vote (558). Data collected among c1,000 Scottish adults 18+
It’s 2:1 Against among committed and decided voters
but…
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56% are certain to vote and have decided
how they will vote
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44% Scots who…
may not vote (25%)
will vote but are undecided (8%)
will vote but may change their vote (11%)
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Turnout may actually be quite high
1-4
(17%)
5-7
(38%)
8-9
(45%)
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Those who may not vote are more likely to be…
45% of undecided (potential)
voters
Generation Y
(40%)
Women
(27%)
More
deprived
areas
(27%)
Labour
supporters
(29%)
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• MAP(S)
% May not vote
>30%
25%>30%
<25%
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Those who will vote but are undecided are more likely
to be…
Women
(12%)
SNP
supporters
(14%)
More Scottish
than British
(15%)
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Those who will vote but may change their vote are
more likely to be…
Generation Y
(22%)
Generation X
(18%)
More affluent
(18%)
More Scottish
than British
(24%)
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As well as…
SNP
supporters
(22%)
Yes voters
(20%)
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Engaging uncertain and
potential voters
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Uncertain voters see the debate like this...
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They want more information about…
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Conclusion…
Engagement Events Economy Election
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here
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Thank you mark.diffley@ipsos.com | 0131 240 3269
christopher.mclean@ipsos.com | 0131 240 3264
This work was carried out in accordance with the requirements of the international quality standard for market research, ISO 20252:2006. © Ipsos MORI
@IpsosMORIScot
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Coming soon...
www.ipsos-mori.com/indyref2014
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…but happening now