Ipsos MORI Scotland Indy Rock 'n' Roll
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With 400 days until the referendum on Scotland’s constitutional future, Ipsos MORI teamed up with journalist and broadcaster Steve Richards to look at the state of play in the polls and what ‘game changers’ might lie ahead in the year ahead. Mark Diffley looked at the number and profile of undecided voters and the information they are looking for ahead of the vote. Steve looked at the referendum from a Westminster perspective and in light of recent referendum experience across the UK.
Transcript of Ipsos MORI Scotland Indy Rock 'n' Roll
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Welcome
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#IndyRocknRoll
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Who are the referendum swing voters? Mark Diffley, Ipsos MORI Scotland 14 August 2013
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A ‘Yes’ vote is a considerable challenge
Data taken from MORI and Ipsos MORI polling (1999-07 data taken from Scottish Social Attitudes Survey)
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Su
pp
ort
fo
r in
de
pe
nd
en
ce
(%
)
Introduction of the poll tax
in Scotland Devolution referendum
Scottish Parliament opens
Devolution referendum
SNP form minority
government
SNP form majority
government
Edinburgh
Agreement
signed
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Base: All certain to vote. Data collected among c1,000 Scottish adults aged 18+ each wave.
60% 57% 50% 55% 58% 55% 59%
35% 38% 39% 35% 30% 34% 31%
Yes
No
January
2012
February
2013
June
2012
October
2012
May
2013
August
2011
December
2011
The current state of play…
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Q. Should Scotland be an independent country?
Base: All certain to vote = 74% (3,704). Data collected among quarterly among c1,000 Scottish adults 18+ Jan 2012 – May 2013
49% 61%
51% 52% 55% 64%
15%
79% 94%
84%
41% 27%
41% 35% 35% 24%
72%
11% 4% 10% Yes
No
Men Women Gen. Y Gen. X Baby
Boomers
Pre-
war
SNP Labour Cons. Lib
Dem
… and how it breaks down
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% Yes
<25%
25%>35%
35%>50%
>50%
Mapping the Yes vote
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Q. Should Scotland be an independent country?
33%
67%
Yes
No
May 2013
Base: All certain to vote and definitely decided how they will vote (558). Data collected among c1,000 Scottish adults 18+
It’s 2:1 Against among committed and decided voters
but…
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56% are certain to vote and have decided
how they will vote
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44% Scots who…
may not vote (25%)
will vote but are undecided (8%)
will vote but may change their vote (11%)
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Turnout may actually be quite high
1-4
(17%)
5-7
(38%)
8-9
(45%)
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Those who may not vote are more likely to be…
45% of undecided (potential)
voters
Generation Y
(40%)
Women
(27%)
More
deprived
areas
(27%)
Labour
supporters
(29%)
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• MAP(S)
% May not vote
>30%
25%>30%
<25%
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Those who will vote but are undecided are more likely
to be…
Women
(12%)
SNP
supporters
(14%)
More Scottish
than British
(15%)
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Those who will vote but may change their vote are
more likely to be…
Generation Y
(22%)
Generation X
(18%)
More affluent
(18%)
More Scottish
than British
(24%)
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As well as…
SNP
supporters
(22%)
Yes voters
(20%)
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Engaging uncertain and
potential voters
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Uncertain voters see the debate like this...
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They want more information about…
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Conclusion…
Engagement Events Economy Election
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Thank you [email protected] | 0131 240 3269
[email protected] | 0131 240 3264
This work was carried out in accordance with the requirements of the international quality standard for market research, ISO 20252:2006. © Ipsos MORI
@IpsosMORIScot
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Coming soon...
www.ipsos-mori.com/indyref2014
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…but happening now
