Download - Ipsos MORI Scotland Indy Rock 'n' Roll

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Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential © Ipsos MORI

Welcome

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#IndyRocknRoll

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Who are the referendum swing voters? Mark Diffley, Ipsos MORI Scotland 14 August 2013

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A ‘Yes’ vote is a considerable challenge

Data taken from MORI and Ipsos MORI polling (1999-07 data taken from Scottish Social Attitudes Survey)

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10

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Su

pp

ort

fo

r in

de

pe

nd

en

ce

(%

)

Introduction of the poll tax

in Scotland Devolution referendum

Scottish Parliament opens

Devolution referendum

SNP form minority

government

SNP form majority

government

Edinburgh

Agreement

signed

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Base: All certain to vote. Data collected among c1,000 Scottish adults aged 18+ each wave.

60% 57% 50% 55% 58% 55% 59%

35% 38% 39% 35% 30% 34% 31%

Yes

No

January

2012

February

2013

June

2012

October

2012

May

2013

August

2011

December

2011

The current state of play…

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Q. Should Scotland be an independent country?

Base: All certain to vote = 74% (3,704). Data collected among quarterly among c1,000 Scottish adults 18+ Jan 2012 – May 2013

49% 61%

51% 52% 55% 64%

15%

79% 94%

84%

41% 27%

41% 35% 35% 24%

72%

11% 4% 10% Yes

No

Men Women Gen. Y Gen. X Baby

Boomers

Pre-

war

SNP Labour Cons. Lib

Dem

… and how it breaks down

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% Yes

<25%

25%>35%

35%>50%

>50%

Mapping the Yes vote

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Q. Should Scotland be an independent country?

33%

67%

Yes

No

May 2013

Base: All certain to vote and definitely decided how they will vote (558). Data collected among c1,000 Scottish adults 18+

It’s 2:1 Against among committed and decided voters

but…

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56% are certain to vote and have decided

how they will vote

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44% Scots who…

may not vote (25%)

will vote but are undecided (8%)

will vote but may change their vote (11%)

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Turnout may actually be quite high

1-4

(17%)

5-7

(38%)

8-9

(45%)

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Those who may not vote are more likely to be…

45% of undecided (potential)

voters

Generation Y

(40%)

Women

(27%)

More

deprived

areas

(27%)

Labour

supporters

(29%)

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• MAP(S)

% May not vote

>30%

25%>30%

<25%

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Those who will vote but are undecided are more likely

to be…

Women

(12%)

SNP

supporters

(14%)

More Scottish

than British

(15%)

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Those who will vote but may change their vote are

more likely to be…

Generation Y

(22%)

Generation X

(18%)

More affluent

(18%)

More Scottish

than British

(24%)

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As well as…

SNP

supporters

(22%)

Yes voters

(20%)

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Engaging uncertain and

potential voters

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Uncertain voters see the debate like this...

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They want more information about…

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Conclusion…

Engagement Events Economy Election

Paste co-

brand logo

here

Paste co-

brand logo

here

Paste co-

brand logo

here

Paste co-

brand logo

here

Thank you [email protected] | 0131 240 3269

[email protected] | 0131 240 3264

This work was carried out in accordance with the requirements of the international quality standard for market research, ISO 20252:2006. © Ipsos MORI

@IpsosMORIScot

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www.ipsos-mori.com/indyref2014

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…but happening now