How to Predict the Future

William Hertling

Defrag 2014

2015 2025 2035

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

kb/s

Video

2005

Avg Speed: 1.2mbps

320 x 200 x 16 x 20% =

1.6mbps

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

kb/s

Napster

1999

Avg Speed: 88kbps

128 encoding = 3MB

Download time: 4 ½

minutes

Video

2005

Avg Speed: 1.2mbps

320 x 200 x 16 x 20% =

1.6mbps

• Predicted: 62 Mbps

• Actual 59.3 Mbps

• Difference: 4.8%

Prediction Year Why

Last magnetic platter

hard drive

manufactured

Prediction Year Why

Last magnetic platter

hard drive

manufactured

2020 SSD capacity increasing 80%/year,

compared to 65% for magnetic

platters. SSD pulls ahead in 2020.

Prediction Year Why

Last magnetic platter

hard drive

manufactured

2020 SSD capacity increasing 80%/year,

compared to 65% for magnetic

platters. SSD pulls ahead in 2020.

Implantable

computers

Prediction Year Why

Last magnetic platter

hard drive

manufactured

2020 SSD capacity increasing 80%/year,

compared to 65% for magnetic

platters. SSD pulls ahead in 2020.

Implantable

computers

2030 Computers shrinking 24% per year.

Reaches easily implantable size by

2030.

Prediction Year Why

Last magnetic platter

hard drive

manufactured

2020 SSD capacity increasing 80%/year,

compared to 65% for magnetic

platters. SSD pulls ahead in 2020.

Implantable

computers

2030 Computers shrinking 24% per year.

Reaches easily implantable size by

2030.

Human-level general

purpose AI

Prediction Year Why

Last magnetic platter

hard drive

manufactured

2020 SSD capacity increasing 80%/year,

compared to 65% for magnetic

platters. SSD pulls ahead in 2020.

Implantable

computers

2030 Computers shrinking 24% per year.

Reaches easily implantable size by

2030.

Human-level general

purpose AI

2025-2050 Processing power growing 47%/year,

50x/decade. Depends on estimates of

complexity of human intelligence.

Even if its 1000x more complicated,

that’s only 20 years further away.

Objection #1

“Exponential growth is not enough.”

“There are hard problems to solve, and we

don’t know how.”

Objection #2

“We haven’t done it, therefore we can’t do

it.”

“We’ve had forty years of disappointments.”

Objection #3

“We’re going to run into fundamental limits.”

“The trend can’t continue.”

Intel 80386

You are

here

My Use Cases

1. Seed for creativity and brainstorming

2. Validate other people’s assumptions

1986 1997

Step 1: Calculate Annual

Increase

Compounded

Annual Growth

Rate

Step 2: Extrapolate

Sanity Check

Prediction off by ~ 2x

Step 3: Predict

Caveats

To receive the following:

▪ A copy of this presentation

▪ Sample spreadsheets

▪ Links to my books

▪ Sample chapters

Just pick up your phone, and send an email:

To: hertling@SendYourSlides.comSubject: defrag

William Hertling, @hertling

Want to Learn More?

To receive the following:

▪ A copy of this presentation

▪ Sample spreadsheets

▪ Links to my books

▪ Sample chapters

Just pick up your phone, and send an email:

To: hertling@SendYourSlides.comSubject: defrag

William Hertling, @hertling

Want to Learn More?

hertling@SendYourSlides.com

defrag