Health Impacts of Climate Change

“ Climate Change is the biggest global health threat of the 21st Century”

Lancet, 2009

Doctors for the Environment, Australia (DEA) is a voluntary, doctor’s organisation, formed in 2001, with members in all States and Territories. The aim of the organisation is to inform and educate the public, the medical profession and policy makers about the relationships between health and the environment. Our priority issue at the present time is the health effects of climate change. DEA is a member of the International Society of Doctors for the Environment.

Scientific committee: Prof. Stephen Boyden AMProf. Peter Doherty ACProf. Bob Douglas AOProf. Frank Fenner ACProf. Michael Kidd AMProf. Steve Leeder AO Prof. Ian Lowe AOProf. Tony Mc MichaelProf. Peter NewmanSir Gustav Nossal ACProf. Hugh PossinghamProf. Lawrie Powell ACProf. Fiona Stanley ACNorman SwanProf. David Yencken AO

Overview: Science of climate change Health effects of climate change Case for urgent action Solutions

Climate Science 101 The accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere

causes the trapping of heat from the sun hence a rise in the temperature of the earth’s climate

Greenhouse gases include CO2, water vapour, methane and nitrous oxide

The increase in temperature is proportional to the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere

CO2 concentration has increased from: Pre-industrial- 280ppm 1958- 316ppm 2008- 387ppm

Average global temperature rise so far 0.76 deg C

The Greenhouse EffectThe Greenhouse Effect

Solar energy passes through

Radiant heat is trapped

Greenhouse gases in atmosphere

Source: Williams DL. Global Warming: The Greatest Threat. Alaska Conservation Solutions, 2006.

The Earth is WarmingThe Earth is Warming

Brohan 2006

CO2 = temperature

The increase in temperature is proportional to the increasing concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere

CO2 increase over time

IPCC 1990

Per capita emissions due to electricity, 2005

Source: IEA; Department of Climate Change

Current impacts at 0.76 deg rise

Arctic: The floating sea-ice is headed towards rapid

summer disintegration as early as 2013, a century ahead of the IPCC projections

“albedo flip” as described by James Hansen (NASA) leads to a positive feedback loop as the arctic sea warms

Greenland ice sheet melt and thawing of permafrost predicted for this century

Revkin, 2007Hansen et al, 2007Hansen, 2006Westbrook et al, 2009

Ice-free summer as early as 2013?

Beck,A. 2007

Current impacts at 0.76 deg riseCurrent impacts at 0.76 deg rise

Victoria: Hottest day ever recorded 7th Feb. 2009 Driest start to year for 150years 2009 Record 12 year low rainfall Fire danger rating for Victoria on 7th Feb. 2009

ranged between 120-190 (previous record was Black Saturday in 1939 of 100) where 100=catastrophic rating

374 deaths from heat stress in first week of Feb.

David Karoly. 16/2/09

January 2009 heatwave in Victoria report-Chief Health Officer, Victoria.

Water storages at lowest point ever

How Doctors assess risk and make decisions: Scenario One Hx:25 yo male presents

with 24hr history of central abdominal pain localizing to RIF. Associated with anorexia, nausea, fever

Ex: T 37.5 deg C pr 120 rebound tenderness over Mc Burney’s point

Ix: high wcc & crp

Dx: appendicitis

Scenario Two Hx: increasing frequency of

severe weather events, changing patterns of plant and animal behaviour

Ex: loss of polar sea ice, global glacial retreat, increase in earth’s temperature, rising sea levels and acidification of ocean

Ix: atmospheric CO2 increasing at rate proportional to increase in earth’s temperature

Dx: climate change Anthropogenic climate change is now

incontrovertibleLancet

Comparison of risks

Scenario One Scenario Two

Provisional Dx Appendicitis Climate Change

Diagnostic Certainty

10-90% >90%

Risk of inactionRuptured appendix

DeathExtinction of

human species

Risk of actionOperative risk for

incorrect Dx???? ECONOMIC

Health effects of climate change Changing patterns of disease Water and food insecurity Vulnerable shelter and human settlements Extreme climate events Population migration

These effects are both direct and indirect

Changing patterns of disease

Vector borne disease increases with temperature temperature is vector

reproduction; parasite development and bite frequency

increase in malaria, tick-borne encephalitis and dengue fever

Heatwaves increase death due to heat stress ie. Europe summer 2003-

70,000 deaths Lancet, 2009

Mosquito abundance increases by a factor of 10 for every 0.1 deg C increase in temperature

Water and food insecurity Famine:

Climate change is likely to compound existing food insecurityFood emergencies have increased from 15/year in 80’s to >30/year : UN World Food Program

Corn and soybean yields in USA reduced by 17% for every 1 deg C temp rise

Drought: 1/6 world population live in glacial fed water

catchments which are vulnerable to climate change increased water temp and reduced water flow lead to

reduced water qualityLancet, 2009

Vulnerable Shelter and Human Settlements

Due to abandonment of flooded or arid land

United Nations 2006 revision of population predicts movement from climate affected lands in developing countries to developed countries to be 2.3 million every year after 2010

Number of climate change related migrants expected to be 100’s of millions by 2050

Extreme climate events Floods

Related infectious diseases ie. cholera, dengue, malaria, leptospirosis increased after hurricane in Nicuragua in 1998

Reduction in water quality and sanitation Loss of property, farmlands, direct loss of life Psychological trauma

Cyclones and hurricanes Direct loss of life, property, farmlands Reduction in water quality and sanitation Psychological trauma

Bushfires Direct loss of life, property, farmlands Psychological trauma

Heatwaves

Psychological effects Direct

Grief as reaction to loss; PTSD

Indirect Depression, anxiety

in the face of dire predictions

Moral issues Climate change raises the moral issues of :

Intergenerational justice Health equity

ie. those responsible for historical CO2 (rich) are less likely to suffer than the poor

“ On a balance of probabilities, the failure of our generation on climate change mitigation would lead to consequences that would haunt humanity until the end of time.” Garnaut, 2008

Health impacts of climate change

Density equalling cartogram. WHO regions scaled according to estimated mortality (per million people) in the year 2000, attributable to the climate change that occurred from 1970s to 2000. Patz et al, in press

Emissions of greenhouse gases

Density equalling cartogram. Countries scaled according to cumulative emissions in billion tonnes carbon equivalent in 2002. Patz et al

Solutions Mitigation:

move to post carbon economy Draw down CO2 to achieve a “safe climate” with

a CO2 of 350ppm

Adaptation Improve education amongst doctors of current

climate science, health impacts and solutions Move to develop skill share and educational

relationships with the developing world

Primary Health Care Strategies

Blashki McMichael Karoly 2007

Danger

Opportunity

Solutions Our capacity to respond to the negative effects

of climate change relies on the generation of reliable, relevant and current information

“There’s a call for a public health movement that frames the threat of climate change for humankind as a health issue.” Lancet 2009

Video... There is also a fantastic video relating to the

effects of climate change available for viewing or dowload - Click here after reading directions below.There are two versions available, one for Windows (the .wmv file) and one for Mac (the .mp4 file). To download simply right-click the appropriate version and select "Download linked file as..." (or an equivalent command).