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Global Economic and Energy OutlookInternational Aviation Fuel Conference and ExhibitionChristof Ruehl, Chief Economist, BP p.l.c.Beijing, April 2012
© BP 2012
Outline
Global trends
Energy markets
Transport fuel outlook
Risks and unknowns
2
© BP 2012
Income growth: The long run
3
1970-1990
1990-2010
2010-2030
GDP growth
% per year
GDP growth per capita 2010-2030
% per year
© BP 2012
Not so new: Income and population shares
World GDP shares
% of world GDP
World population shares
% of world population
*Includes UK, France, Germany, Italy
*
4
© BP 2012
Medium term growth risks
5
Fed + ECB + BoJ (rhs)
Central banks’ balance sheetsConsumption and inequality
Gini coefficient Trillion $US*% of GDP % of world GDP
*At constant 2011 exchange rates
© BP 2012
Outline
Global trends
Energy markets
Transport fuel outlook
Risks and unknowns
6
© BP 2012
Energy demand growth
OECD
Non-OECD
Billion toe
*Includes biofuels
Billion toe
7
*
© BP 2012
India and China, again
Energy
Billion toe Trillion, $2010 PPP
GDPPopulation
Billion
Rest of World
India
China
8
© BP 2012
Energy consumption follows development
ChinaIndia
Billion toe Billion toe
9
*Includes biofuels
*
© BP 2012
Patterns of economic development
Industrialisation
Industry as %GDP
Energy intensity
$2010 GDP per capita (000s)
Toe per thousand $2010 GDP
10
China
India
© BP 2012
Industry vs. transport in energy demand
Billion toeIndiaChina
Primary energy growth by fuel
11
*
China: final energy demand by sector
Billion toe
*Includes biofuels
© BP 2012
Energy: Consumption growth by sector
By sector and fuel to 2030 By sector and region to 2030
Final energy use Inputs to power
Billion toe
Final energy use Inputs to power
Billion toe
12
© BP 2012
Outline
Global trends
Energy markets
Transport fuel outlook
Risks and unknowns
13
© BP 2012
Global liquids, demand and supply
Mb/d
Demand Supply
India
Mid East
China
NGLs
IraqOther
S&C Am
Other
Saudi
Oil Sands
Biofuels
Brazil
US
2030 level
14
© BP 2012
Mb/d
Liquids supply growth - OPEC and North America
Growth from 2010 to 2030
Liquids supply by type
Mb/d
Other
Saudi Arabia
Iraq
NGLs
Brazil
US ShaleOil
Biofuels
CanadianOil Sands
Other
RoW
OPEC share (rhs)
15
© BP 2012
Liquids demand growth: non-OECD transport
Liquids demand by product group
0
15
30
45
60
75
90
105
1990 2010 2030
Biofuels
Lightdistillates
Middledistillates
Other
Fuel Oil0
15
30
45
60
75
90
105
1990 2010 2030
Non-OECDInd. & Other
Non-OECDTransport
OECD Ind. &Other
OECDTransport
Power
Mb/d
16
Liquids demand by sector
Mb/d
© BP 2012
Non-fossil fuels: Growth led by OECD renewables
Billion toe
Renewables in power
Biofuels
OECD Non-OECD
Billion toe
17
© BP 2012
Global renewables in power and transport
Share of power generation
EU
Other OECD
Non-OECD
World
Share of transport sector
18
© BP 2012
Transport fuel demand
By energy type
Billion toe
19
By Region
Billion toe
© BP 2012
Aviation fuel demand
By energy type
Billion toe
20
Aviation Demand by Region
Mb/d
Oil - aviationOil - other
© BP 2012
Outline
Global trends
Energy markets
Transport fuel outlook
Risks and unknowns
21
© BP 2012
Energy imbalances improve in the Americas
Gas
Oil
Coal
Billion toe
Key:
Europe
N. America
S. & C. America Africa
Mid-East
FSU
Other Asia Pacific
India
China
22
Net exportersNet importers
© BP 2012
Import dependency rises in Asia and Europe
Billion toe
India China USEU27
80%91%
42%
47%
94%
32%40%
80%
57%
Import share of respective fuel
23
1990 2010 2030
1990 2010 2030
1990 2010 2030
1990 2010 2030
6%
© BP 2012
Carbon emission growth: More action coming?
Billion tonnes CO2
Oil
Gas
Coal
0
10
20
30
40
1990 2010 2030
OECD
Non-OECD
Global CO2 emissions from energy use
0
10
20
30
40
2000 2010 2020 2030
Base Case
Policy Case
IEA “450 Scenario”
Billion tonnes CO2
24