Global Economic and Energy OutlookInternational Aviation Fuel Conference and ExhibitionChristof Ruehl, Chief Economist, BP p.l.c.Beijing, April 2012

© BP 2012

Outline

Global trends

Energy markets

Transport fuel outlook

Risks and unknowns

2

© BP 2012

Income growth: The long run

3

1970-1990

1990-2010

2010-2030

GDP growth

% per year

GDP growth per capita 2010-2030

% per year

© BP 2012

Not so new: Income and population shares

World GDP shares

% of world GDP

World population shares

% of world population

*Includes UK, France, Germany, Italy

*

4

© BP 2012

Medium term growth risks

5

Fed + ECB + BoJ (rhs)

Central banks’ balance sheetsConsumption and inequality

Gini coefficient Trillion $US*% of GDP % of world GDP

*At constant 2011 exchange rates

© BP 2012

Outline

Global trends

Energy markets

Transport fuel outlook

Risks and unknowns

6

© BP 2012

Energy demand growth

OECD

Non-OECD

Billion toe

*Includes biofuels

Billion toe

7

*

© BP 2012

India and China, again

Energy

Billion toe Trillion, $2010 PPP

GDPPopulation

Billion

Rest of World

India

China

8

© BP 2012

Energy consumption follows development

ChinaIndia

Billion toe Billion toe

9

*Includes biofuels

*

© BP 2012

Patterns of economic development

Industrialisation

Industry as %GDP

Energy intensity

$2010 GDP per capita (000s)

Toe per thousand $2010 GDP

10

China

India

© BP 2012

Industry vs. transport in energy demand

Billion toeIndiaChina

Primary energy growth by fuel

11

*

China: final energy demand by sector

Billion toe

*Includes biofuels

© BP 2012

Energy: Consumption growth by sector

By sector and fuel to 2030 By sector and region to 2030

Final energy use Inputs to power

Billion toe

Final energy use Inputs to power

Billion toe

12

© BP 2012

Outline

Global trends

Energy markets

Transport fuel outlook

Risks and unknowns

13

© BP 2012

Global liquids, demand and supply

Mb/d

Demand Supply

India

Mid East

China

NGLs

IraqOther

S&C Am

Other

Saudi

Oil Sands

Biofuels

Brazil

US

2030 level

14

© BP 2012

Mb/d

Liquids supply growth - OPEC and North America

Growth from 2010 to 2030

Liquids supply by type

Mb/d

Other

Saudi Arabia

Iraq

NGLs

Brazil

US ShaleOil

Biofuels

CanadianOil Sands

Other

RoW

OPEC share (rhs)

15

© BP 2012

Liquids demand growth: non-OECD transport

Liquids demand by product group

0

15

30

45

60

75

90

105

1990 2010 2030

Biofuels

Lightdistillates

Middledistillates

Other

Fuel Oil0

15

30

45

60

75

90

105

1990 2010 2030

Non-OECDInd. & Other

Non-OECDTransport

OECD Ind. &Other

OECDTransport

Power

Mb/d

16

Liquids demand by sector

Mb/d

© BP 2012

Non-fossil fuels: Growth led by OECD renewables

Billion toe

Renewables in power

Biofuels

OECD Non-OECD

Billion toe

17

© BP 2012

Global renewables in power and transport

Share of power generation

EU

Other OECD

Non-OECD

World

Share of transport sector

18

© BP 2012

Transport fuel demand

By energy type

Billion toe

19

By Region

Billion toe

© BP 2012

Aviation fuel demand

By energy type

Billion toe

20

Aviation Demand by Region

Mb/d

Oil - aviationOil - other

© BP 2012

Outline

Global trends

Energy markets

Transport fuel outlook

Risks and unknowns

21

© BP 2012

Energy imbalances improve in the Americas

Gas

Oil

Coal

Billion toe

Key:

Europe

N. America

S. & C. America Africa

Mid-East

FSU

Other Asia Pacific

India

China

22

Net exportersNet importers

© BP 2012

Import dependency rises in Asia and Europe

Billion toe

India China USEU27

80%91%

42%

47%

94%

32%40%

80%

57%

Import share of respective fuel

23

1990 2010 2030

1990 2010 2030

1990 2010 2030

1990 2010 2030

6%

© BP 2012

Carbon emission growth: More action coming?

Billion tonnes CO2

Oil

Gas

Coal

0

10

20

30

40

1990 2010 2030

OECD

Non-OECD

Global CO2 emissions from energy use

0

10

20

30

40

2000 2010 2020 2030

Base Case

Policy Case

IEA “450 Scenario”

Billion tonnes CO2

24