Post on 22-Feb-2016
description
Facing our Fiscal Future
Mark Neuman-LeePolicy Analyst
Colorado Fiscal Policy Institute
www.cclponline.org
Budget Squeeze
Colorado doesn’t have the resources to fund the services we expect to receive.
Stagnant revenue combined with increasing demand for services is squeezing all services – public education, health care, human services.
www.cclponline.org
Stagnant Revenue,Rising Demand
• Between 2001 and 2010, General Fund revenue fell slightly, but Colorado had about:– Over 700,00 more Coloradans– 100,000 new K-12 pupils– 40,000 new students in higher
education– 5,800 more prisoners– 225,000 more residents on Medicaid
www.cclponline.org
However, resources do not meet need
6.6 5.5 5.5 5.8 6.1 7.0 7.5 7.7 6.7 6.5 7.1 7.34.04.55.05.56.06.57.07.58.0
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Dolla
rs in
Billio
ns
Fiscal Year
General Fund Revenue
www.cclponline.org
Muddling through
To balance the budget, the legislature has• Taken money from cash funds• Used Federal stimulus funds • Cut services
However,• Cash fund balances are running low• Stimulus money is over• We will rely more on services cuts – K-12, Higher
Education, Health Care, Human Services
www.cclponline.org
FY11-12 General Fund Spending
K-1240%
Higher Ed9%
Health Care24%
Human Sevices
9%
Judicial5%
Corrections9%
Other4%
Data from FY11-12 Appropriation Report
www.cclponline.org
Total K-12 Spending
FY07-08
FY08-09
FY09-10
FY10-11
FY11-12
$4,600,000,000
$4,800,000,000
$5,000,000,000
$5,200,000,000
$5,400,000,000
$5,600,000,000
$5,800,000,000
$6,000,000,000
$6,200,000,000
$5,068,284,706$5,349,019,294
$5,587,572,003$5,441,603,049$5,212,694,674
$129,813,999 $381,211,101 $774,414,342
K-12 Spending and CutsCuts from fully-funded School Finance ActCut State and Local
Dol
lars
(in
mill
ions
)
Data from JBC Appropriations Report
www.cclponline.org
K-12 Per pupil spendingFY
04-0
5
FY05
-06
FY06
-07
FY07
-08
FY08
-09
FY09
-10
FY10
-11
FY11
-12
$5,000
$6,000
$7,000
$8,000
$6,074 $6,168 $6,359 $6,661 $6,874 $7,077 $6,813 $6,468
$134 $423 $906
Average Per-Pupil Funding in Colorado
Average spending per pupil Cut from Amendment 23
Data from JBC Appropriation Reports
www.cclponline.org
Colorado K-12 spending falling vs. national average
FY07-08 Rankings (most recent)Per pupil 39th ($1,700 below national averageTotal spending per $1000 of income – 48th
www.cclponline.org
Funding burden shifting to state
State share 2011-12 - 64%State share 1987-1988 – 43%
www.cclponline.org
Higher Education Cuts
• Not protected constitutionally• FY11-12 Proposal – State will invest less
than FY97-98 • Higher Education cuts cushioned by
backfill from ARRA, but federal stimulus dollars ended last year
• 25,000 more students but $187 million less in state funding FY 2011 compared to FY 2009. $1553 less per student
www.cclponline.org
Cutting State Support for Higher Education
Graph from JBC Appropriation Report FY11-12
www.cclponline.org
Falling spending per college student
200
200
200
200
200
200
200
200
200
200
201
201
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
6,37
7
5,89
8
4,95
2
4,10
9
4,00
4
4,33
7
4,61
8
4,83
9
3,85
7
2,07
0 3,67
7
2,98
0
1,04
5
2,44
0 174
State support per resident student FTE, adjusted for inflation
ARRA Support per STFE Adjusted
GF Support per STFE Adjusted
Data from JBC, analysis by COFPI
www.cclponline.org
Financial Aid is helping less
From JBC Appropriation Report FY10-11
We have low taxes
State
Combined State and Local Taxes
Total State Taxes
AZ 30 40KS 18 27CO 44 49NE 14 33OKWYUT
412
21
20324
All rankings per $1000 of income, from FY 08-09
www.cclponline.org
Taxes Have Fallen
Colorado Tax FY 1998-99 FY 2008-09 Change
Individual Income $23.69 $20.74 -12.50%
Sales/Use $14.73 $10.89 -24.20%
Corporate Income $2.54 $1.55 -39.00%
Gas $4.35 $2.90 -33.30%
Liquor $0.22 $0.17 -22.70%
Tobacco $0.57 $1.02 78.90%
Legislative Council August 2010Per $1000 of Income
Starting the conversation about revenue
www.cclponline.org
Initiative 25
Senator Rollie Heath’s proposal– Raises $536 million which will go to
preschool, K-12, and public higher education
• Average about $550 for each Colorado student
– Raises state tax rates back to 1999 levels
• Income tax 4.63% to 5%• Sales tax 2.9% to 3%
– Temporary, expires after five years
www.cclponline.org
Less than a Dollar a Day
A taxpayer with a median income of $55,700 in Colorado will pay about $150 more each year, primarily in income tax.
www.brightcolorado.com
What kind of Colorado do we want?
Mark Neuman-LeePolicy Analyst
Colorado Fiscal Policy Institutemneumanlee@cclponline.org