Exploring Migration Futures through ‘megatrends’

What are relative certainties?

14 September 2011 1

International Migration InstituteOxford Department of International DevelopmentOxford Martin SchoolUniversity of Oxford

Hein de Haashein.dehaas@qeh.ox.ac.uk

Global migration futures

• Focus on North Africa and Europe

• Broader implications and generalizations

North African migration trends

The guest-worker boom (1963-1972)

Large-scale labour migration from Maghreb to northwest Europe

The 1973 Oil Crisis turning point

•Increasing family migration from the Maghreb to Europe instead of massive return •increasing migration to Libya and the Gulf, particularly from Egypt

The 1991-1992 turning point (Gulf War; Libya embargo; Algerian civil war; S-EU visas)

Persistence and diversification•Oil countries: Repatriation, indigenisation and resumption•Resumption of labour migration to Europe; increasingly irregular character•Increasing sub-Saharan migration to North Africa

Numbers of North-African descendants according to destination region

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

Morocco(2004)

Algeria(2003)

Tunisia(2003)

Egypt(2000)

Americas and other

Arab

Other Europe

France

Source: Fargues P, Cassarino J-P, and Latreche A, ed. 2005. Mediterranean Migration - 2005 Report. Florence: EUI-RSCAS, CARIM.

European migration trends

• 1950-1973: Postcolonial and ‘guestworker’ migration to NW Europe

• Post 1973: structural growth of permanent immigration (business cycles, labour market shifts)

• Outward shift of the European ‘migration frontier’: o South-European migration transitions o Most immigrants now from MENA and E-Europe

• Highly skilled increasingly welcomed, continuing family migration irregular migration of low-skilled workers

What lies ahead? ....

• Business as usual?

• Or can we expect major transformations in the European and North African migration landscapes?

relative certainties and the identification of “megatrends”

• Which contextual factors are relatively certain when thinking about migration from, to and within North Africa and Europe between now and 2035?

• What impact may these factors have on future migration? (in their interaction with other contextual factors)

Relative certainties and the identification of “megatrends”

• Identification of ‘megatrends’: long-term driving forces or development trends that influence almost everything at all levels of society*

• Megatrends underpin all scenarios.

• Importance of by looking at the past in order to identify continuities and discontinuities, and to assess what is plausible to occur within our time horizon (up to 2035)

* Strategic Futures Studies, Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies, 2008.

The contextual environmentEconomic growth and inequality

The contextual environmentEconomic growth and inequality

The contextual environmentQuality of life and health

The contextual environmentHealth

The contextual environmentkey trends so far: education

The contextual environmentEducation

The contextual environmentGender inequality in education

The contextual environmentUrbanization

The contextual environmentde-agrarization

The contextual environmentRapid spread of telecom

The contextual environmentRapid spread of telecom

The contextual environmentFertility decline

Source: United Nations Population Division; World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision

The contextual environmentDeclining population growth

Source: United Nations Population Division; World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision; (>2010 figures according to medium fertility variant)

The contextual environmentDependency ratio

Source: United Nations Population Division; World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision

The contextual environmentchanging demographic composition

Source: United Nations Population Division; World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision; (>2010 figures according to medium fertility variant)

Exploring relative certainties and megatrends

• Increasing literacy and education increasing aspirations

• Economic diversification, urbanization and “de-agrarization” slowdown internal migration?

• Advances in communication and transportation technology ambiguous impacts

• Differential demographic transitions and population ageing demographic window of opportunities

Eventual effects on migration are uncertain because they are mediated by crucial economic and political uncertainties.