Post on 25-Jan-2022
Enrollment ProjectionsMarch 9, 2021
• Review previous year’s enrollment/housing trends • Review recent enrollment/demographic data• Discuss future years’ enrollment
Presentation Objective
Fulton County Schools Enrollment
2
90,066
91,67192,500
93,818
95,095 95,505 95,688 96,048 95,61094,665
93,948
90,376
82,000
84,000
86,000
88,000
90,000
92,000
94,000
96,000
98,000
2009
-10
2010
-11
2011
-12
2012
-13
2013
-14
2014
-15
2015
-16
2016
-17
2017
-18
2018
-19
2019
-20
2020
-21
Fulton Enrollment Trends
3
48,787 49,578 49,919 50,201 49,887 49,582 50,101 49,815 49,452 49,11246,764
9,642 9,982 10,527 10,623 10,583 10,389 10,190 10,414 10,342 10,115 9,693
33,242 32,940 33,372 34,271 35,035 35,717 35,757 35,381 34,871 34,721 33,919
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
55,00020
10-1
1
2011
-12
2012
-13
2013
-14
2014
-15
2015
-16
2016
-17
2017
-18
2018
-19
2019
-20
2020
-21
Stud
ent E
nrol
lmen
t
North Fulton
Sandy Springs
South Fulton
Grade Level Enrollment Trends
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Fulton New Home Closings
5
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
4Q07
2Q08
4Q08
2Q09
4Q09
2Q10
4Q10
2Q11
4Q11
2Q12
4Q12
2Q13
4Q13
2Q14
4Q14
2Q15
4Q15
2Q16
4Q16
2Q17
4Q17
2Q18
4Q18
2Q19
4Q19
2Q20
4Q20
Quarterly New Home Closings by FCS Region
Closed units - SF Closed units - SS Closed units - NF
Fulton Private School Trends
6
Fulton Home School Trends
7
Regional Enrollment Trends
8
2018-19 2019-20 2020-21First Month First Month Enrollment Change First Month Enrollment ChangeEnrollment* Enrollment* 2018-19 to 2019-20 Enrollment* 2019-20 to 2020-21
North FultonElementary 20,781 20,618 -163 18,782 -1,836
Middle 11,699 11,571 -128 11,049 -522High 16,972 16,923 -49 16,933 10
NF Total 49,452 49,112 -340 46,764 -2,348
Sandy SpringsElementary 5,022 4,785 -237 4,417 -368
Middle 2,046 1,986 -60 2,008 22High 3,274 3,344 70 3,268 -76
SS Total 10,342 10,115 -227 9,693 -422
South FultonElementary 16,997 16,614 -383 15,538 -1,076
Middle 7,984 8,215 231 8,134 -81High 9,890 9,892 2 10,247 355
SF Total 34,871 34,721 -150 33,919 -802
Fulton County Elementary 42,800 42,017 -783 38,737 -3,280
Middle 21,729 21,772 43 21,191 -581High 30,136 30,159 23 30,448 289
FCS Total 94,665 93,948 -717 90,376 -3,572Data note(s): Figures include FCS charter and alternative schools except for GA Baptist and Wellspring schools
2020-21 Forecast Accuracy
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First Month Forecasted Over/Under % Over/UnderEnrollment Enrollment Forecast Forecast
North FultonElementary 18,782 20,442 -1,660 -8.12%
Middle 11,049 11,325 -276 -2.44%High 16,933 17,038 -105 -0.62%
NF Total 46,764 48,805 -2,041 -4.18%
Sandy SpringsElementary 4,417 4,651 -234 -5.03%
Middle 2,008 1,995 13 0.65%High 3,268 3,333 -65 -1.95%
SS Total 9,693 9,979 -286 -2.87%
South FultonElementary 15,538 16,410 -872 -5.31%
Middle 8,134 8,294 -160 -1.93%High 10,247 10,198 49 0.48%
SF Total 33,919 34,902 -983 -2.82%
Fulton County Elementary 38,737 41,503 -2,766 -6.66%
Middle 21,191 21,614 -423 -1.96%High 30,448 30,569 -121 -0.40%
FCS Total 90,376 93,686 -3,310 -3.53%Data note(s): Figures include FCS charter and alternative schools except for GA Baptist and Wellspring schools
2020-21
Metro Area Enrollment Trends
10
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
200,000
Gwinnett ( -1.80% )
Cobb ( -4.39% )
Dekalb ( -5.70% )
Fulton ( -3.98% )
Clayton ( -4.36% )
Atlanta ( -2.57% )
Cherokee ( -3.37% )
Forsyth ( + 1.19% )
Henry ( -1.47% )
North Fulton Housing Trends
11
Sandy Springs Housing Trends
12
South Fulton Housing Trends
13
Forecast ObservationsDistrictwide• Reset enrollment at Kindergarten and First Grade to Fall 2019*• Adjusted school level totals to accommodate the opening of 3 new schools
– Global Impact– Innovation Academy– Fulton Academy of Virtual Excellence
• Developed an “adjustment factor” for students in Grade 2 through Grade 8 who may have opted for private/home school in Fall 2020 that potentially could return Fall 2021
North Fulton• North Fulton residential closings are slightly down from last year • Continue to track grade-level mobility changesSandy Springs• 9th grade enrollment/mobility continues to be the strongest cohort for the region• Very little Covid-driven enrollment impact• Development, which is below last year’s closing rate, is not having a positive effect on
enrollmentSouth Fulton• Middle and high school enrollment were not significantly impacted due to pandemic
enrollment concerns; cohorts remain strong• The housing market in the region is moving aggressively with new developments and
strong absorption rates. Assumption for new student yields may need adjusting moving forward
14
2021-25 Forecasted Enrollment
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2020-21 2021-22 Projected 2025-26 Projected First Month Forecasted 1-Year Forecasted 5-YearEnrollment Enrollment* Growth Enrollment* Growth
North FultonElementary 18,782 19,777 995 20,180 1,398
Middle 11,049 10,484 -565 10,372 -677High 16,933 16,721 -212 15,229 -1,704
NF Total 46,764 46,982 218 45,781 -983
Sandy SpringsElementary 4,417 4,565 148 4,451 34
Middle 2,008 2,017 9 1,638 -370High 3,268 3,140 -128 2,875 -393
SS Total 9,693 9,722 29 8,964 -729
South FultonElementary 15,538 15,808 270 16,137 599
Middle 8,134 7,972 -162 7,445 -689High 10,247 10,472 225 10,188 -59
SF Total 33,919 34,252 333 33,770 -149
Fulton County Elementary 38,737 40,150 1,413 40,768 2,031
Middle 21,191 20,473 -718 19,455 -1,736High 30,448 30,333 -115 28,292 -2,156
FCS Total 90,376 91,946 1,570 89,505 -871*Forecast is subject to change.
Data note(s): Figures include FCS charter and alternative schools except for GA Baptist and Wellspring schools