Comprehensive Enrollment Analysis and Projections · Comprehensive Enrollment Analysis and...

Comprehensive Enrollment Analysis and Projections

Prepared for Danbury Public Schools

November 2019

2

Introduction

Projections Comparison

Key Community Trends Demographics

Housing

Economy

Enrollment Trends

Student In-Migration Analysis

Revised Projections

3

Projections Performance

Overall, the projections from 2018-19 were 2.8% low for grades K-12 2019-20 growth returned district to decade long trend in growth 2018-19 appears to be an outlier along the trend – unusually low growth

Enrollment K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 K-5 Total 6-8 Total 9-12 Total K-12 Total

2019-20 Projected (Med) 863 909 903 891 920 908 888 919 841 930 761 807 802 5,394 2,648 3,300 11,342

2019-20 Actual 925 905 934 900 929 945 936 939 861 974 805 847 772 5,538 2,736 3,398 11,672

Deviation 62 (4) 31 9 9 37 48 20 20 44 44 40 (30) 144 88 98 330

% Difference 6.7% -0.4% 3.3% 1.0% 1.0% 3.9% 5.1% 2.1% 2.3% 4.5% 5.5% 4.7% -3.9% 2.6% 3.2% 2.9% 2.8%Enrollment data provided by Danbury Public Schools as of October 1, 2019

10,04110,186

10,34310,488 10,601

10,76210,912

11,15711,373 11,482 11,532

11,958

y = 9869.7e0.0151x

R² = 0.9943

8,000

8,500

9,000

9,500

10,000

10,500

11,000

11,500

12,000

12,500

13,000

2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20

Danbury Public Schools PK-12 Total Enrollment

Actual Enrollment and Exponential Trend Line of2008-09 through 2017-18

4

Population Estimates

DPH estimates stabilization in total population at about 85,000 Despite small estimated decrease in 2018-19 (which corresponds to low

enrollment growth year), still 2% growth over last five years According to latest Census data, 12+% of population lived in a different residence

from one year ago – significant churn in population

5

Births

Significant decrease in births in 2018 preliminary totals; 9% decrease from 2017, and 15% decrease from 2016

2019 preliminary numbers (Jan – Aug) running closer to 2018 totals than previous years Large increase in births in 2016 (2021 kindergarten class) not sustained Range of projections developed using mathematical models to feed latter half of

enrollment projection models

974

1,046 1,0421,022 1,012 1,019

974

1,022 1,014 1,007 1,005 1,008

974

1,007985 989 994 989

900

950

1,000

1,050

1,100

1,150

1,200

1,250

1,300

1,350

1,400

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017p 2018p 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Danbury Actual, Estimated and Projected Births, 2000-2024

Source: CT DPH, Actual Births 2000-2016 and Preliminary Births 2017-2018; Projections were bsaed on 1999-2018 births, Out of state births were applied to adjust 2019-2024 birth projections.Projected Births prepared by MMI 2019-2024

6

Demographics Summary

Total population estimated to have stabilized Birth rates substantially decreased in 2018 and based on

preliminary numbers remain low in 2019 Total population trends in opposition to enrollment increases

7

Employment remains strong in Danbury and Fairfield County Currently, Danbury at its lowest unemployment rate since 2001 at 3.3%

Unemployment Rate

8

Housing Permits (New Construction)

2019 year-to-date (Jan-Aug) appears to follow recent trend of decreasing permits 2015 permits near level of housing market bubble peak Since 2015 there has been a large drop off in multi-family permits issued

9

Housing Sales

Total sales are up 64% from 2011 recessionary low Since 2016, observed leveling off in total housing sales Very slight downturn in 2018, but rebound anticipated for 2019, based on Jan-Aug

sales (estimate a 6% increase year-over-year) Historically condo sales have made up on average 45% of total home sales

10

Rental Unit Vacancy Rates

Very low rental vacancy rates contribute to a strong overall local housing market

Rental vacancy rates have decreased 4% since the 2011 high and are much lower than the County and State rates

Danbury rental vacancy rates averaging 3% over last 3 years

11

Recent Housing Development

Brookview Commons, Phase II recently began construction, set to build 149 apartment units, primarily studio, one and two bedrooms

Rivington by Toll Brothers (off Saw Mill/ Mill Ridge Dist.): continued build out of 758 planned units; mix of luxury townhomes, condos, and age-restricted units

Victorian Meadows (Osborne St/ Ellsworth Dist.): recently built mixed-income and mix of supportive units, set to expand 13 additional units

Kennedy Flats (Main and Kennedy/ King St Dist.): 374 total units, primarily studios and two bedrooms

The Reserve near Rivington and Abbey Woods has completed a few phases of construction with 3 more phases to be completed that will add 346 additional units. Phase 8C was recently completed and Phase 4B is close to completion adding 121 units to the market

The Falcao/Thomas Building was recently completed adding a total of 3 single bedroom units and 5 two bedroom units

12

• Do we need to show developments on map?

13

Strong housing market with continued build out of dense, multi-family Strong rental market, especially with new stock coming on

line Stabilization in sales, rental vacancy rates and permitting

Housing Summary

14

Enrollment Trends

While Connecticut’s total public-school enrollment has steadily declined over the last decade, Danbury’s has steadily increased

Statewide 2019-20 data not yet available

15

Regional Enrollment Trends Growth in Fairfield County

enrollments since 2010 Regionally, Bethel has been

increasing over the last five years, and both Brookfield and Newtown appear to have bottomed out in their decline

School District 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19

Bethel 3,073 3,042 2,938 2,970 2,975 2,989 2,928 2,971 2,996 3,059 3,112

Brookfield 2,945 2,898 2,870 2,834 2,789 2,762 2,708 2,692 2,673 2,639 2,630

Danbury 10,041 10,186 10,343 10,488 10,601 10,762 10,912 11,157 11,371 11,483 11,531

New Fairfield 3,052 3,029 2,919 2,868 2,798 2,726 2,653 2,497 2,394 2,308 2,246

New Milford 4,894 4,857 4,744 4,659 4,600 4,484 4,344 4,245 4,217 4,133 3,991

Newtown 5,602 5,490 5,429 5,278 5,115 4,878 4,731 4,588 4,470 4,407 4,306

Source: CSDE EdSight

16

PreK-12 Enrollment

Total school enrollment for Danbury schools has increased 10% over the last five years, and 17% over the last ten years

Enrollment appeared to be stabilizing last year; however 2018-19 now appears to be an anomaly

Back on trend line of the last decade in 2019-20 with 4% growth over last year

Source: Danbury Public Schools

17

K-5 Enrollment

K-5 enrollment has increased 5% over the last five years, and 13% over the last ten years

2018-19 declined slightly, though 2% rebound this year more than made up for slight decline of last year

K-5 enrollment at recent historic high this year


18

6-8 Enrollment

6-8 enrollment has increased 13% in the last five years, and 28% in the last ten years

Despite small decrease in 2017-18, 9% increase over the last two years


19

9-12 Enrollment

Strong growth rate since 2014-15 when larger cohorts began entering the high school

Enrollment has increased 14% over the last 5 years, 15% over the last 10 years

Again, slight decrease in 2018-19 followed by 6% rebound


20

5% growth in PK-12 resident student population over four years Proportion of those attending other public schools and private schools

remains very stable

Danbury Resident Student Pop

85% 85% 86% 86% 86%

3% 3% 4% 4% 4%11% 11% 11% 10% 10%

12,609 12,859 13,065 13,188 13,180

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19

Danbury Resident Student Enrollment

DPS Other Public PrivateSource: CSDE

21

Danbury Resident Student Pop.

Enrollment in other public schools consists largely of CT Technical High School Enrollment, which has increased 16% over the four-year period

Private school enrollment of Danbury resident students spread across grade groupings, with several parochial PK-8 schools and Immaculate High School accounting for a majority of this population – private school enrollment down 10% over the last four years

302 308 263 294 268

571 560 531 509 496

315 302 306 298 245

406

230

416

264

455

274

460

273

480

276

0200400600800

1,0001,2001,4001,600

OtherPublic

Private OtherPublic

Private OtherPublic

Private OtherPublic

Private OtherPublic

Private

2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19

Danbury Residents Attending Other Public and Private Schools

PK K-5 6-8 9-12Source: CSDE

22

Identified new to district students by comparing student ID’s in system from one year to next

In 2019-20, DPS had 1,192 new 1st through 12th graders enroll in the system (not accounting for those who left the system)

The number of new-to-district students represents a 42% increase over last year’s numbers – and significant increase across all grade groupings

In-Migration Trends


Source: DPS

23

In-Migration Trends

Between 2017-18 and 2019-20, almost 3,000 1st

– 12th grade students have entered the District (not accounting for those who have exited the District)

New-to-district students over the past three years show similar settlement patterns that largely mimic population density within the City

24

Highest concentrations of new-to-district students (grades 1-12) reside in Park, King and Shelter Rock attendance areas

Every area of the City experienced an increase in new-to-district students in 2019-20

In-Migration Trends by Area


Elementary Attendance Area 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 Total% of Total

New to District

Ellsworth Avenue 79 76 114 269 9%Great Plains 50 43 55 148 5%

Haystown Avenue 74 77 107 258 9%King Street 107 118 144 369 12%Mill Ridge 107 75 106 288 10%

Morris 49 46 73 168 6%Park Avenue 102 114 164 380 13%

Pembroke 64 44 75 183 6%Shelter Rock 111 84 131 326 11%South Street 85 62 111 258 9%

Stadley Rough 98 82 104 284 10%Grand Total 943 838 1,192 2,973 99%

New to District Students by Residential Address

Total off due to rounding.

25

38% of all new-to-district students in grades 1-12 live in 2-4 family housing units; 26% in single-family units; and 18% in apartments or condominiums

Other includes land classified by Tax Assessor as vacant, non-residential, or reported residence located outside of Danbury

New Students by Housing Type

26

Significant differences in types of units new-to-district students vs. total enrollment reside in: Great Plain and Mill Ridge attendance areas New students substantially more likely to be in multi-family than the total

enrollment

Enrollment by Housing Type

27

New to district students were address-matched to housing sales that occurred between October 1st, 2018 and September 30th, 2019, excluding condominium sales due to data limitations

Although sales are up from the past two years, student generation is down from single-family and 2-4 family housing units

Average generation of 0.12 new students per housing sale

Students From Housing Sales

Total Sales (Oct-Sept) Grades 1-5 Grades 6-8 Grades 9-12

2017-18 596 26 29 39 94 0.162018-19 551 16 14 22 52 0.092019-20 625 16 18 31 65 0.10

Total 1,772 58 61 92 211 0.12* Table only shows new students matched to single-family or 2-4 family units, apartment or condominums are not included due to availability of data

Source: The Warren Group, Danbury Public Schools, City of Danbury

Students Matched to SalesNew Students Matched to Home Sales

Total Students Matched to Home Sales

YearStudents Per Sale

28

New Students Generated by Home

Sales

• 7% of new-to-district students matched to home sales between 2017-18 and 2019-20

• Mill Ridge, Pembroke, Stadley Rough, and Great Plain had the most new-to-district students generated by home sales

• This includes students in grades 1-12, living in single-family and 2-4 family homes only

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3 phases of approved development to be completed at “The Reserve” have the largest potential for student generation due to number of units

In addition to the Reserve’s 3 phases there are 11 other approved multi-family developments with 6 under construction -estimated to add 218 new units

Brookview Commons, Phase II is the most recent approved development, planning to build 149 units

Approved Housing Not Yet Built

/

Source: Danbury Public Schools, City of Danbury Planning Department

30

Existing multi-family developments were analyzed to estimate students expected from future housing development

Housing Multipliers

Development NameAvearge K-12 Enrollment

(Last 3 Years)Total Units

Total Students Generated Per

Unit

Students Grades K-5 Generated

Per Unit

Students Grades 6-8 Generated

Per Unit

Students Grades 9-12 Generated

Per Unit

Abbey Woods 82 470 0.17 0.10 0.04 0.04Brookview Commons 10 138 0.07 0.06 0.01 0.00

Arlington Woods 30 99 0.30 0.18 0.07 0.0655 Oil Mill 2 42 0.04 0.02 0.00 0.02

1 Kennedy Flats 25 374 0.07 0.03 0.01 0.02The Rivington 17 721 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.01

Sterling Woods 26 434 0.06 0.03 0.01 0.02Total 192 2,278 0.08 0.05 0.02 0.02

Students Generated from Danbury Apartment/Condominium Developments

Source: City of Danbury Planning Department

Name Address Type Price Range Unit Breakdown

Abbey Woods 15 Abbey Lane Apartments $1,605-$2,210/ mo. 1,2,3 Beds

Brookview Commons 30 Crosby Street Apartments $1,240-$1,750/ mo. Studio, 2 Beds

Arlington Woods Arlington Woods Condo Complex Condos 292000 2 Beds

55 Oil Mill 55 Oil Mill Rd Condos $100,000 - $200,000 1, 2 Beds

1 Kennedy Flats 1 Kennedy Ave Apartments $1,500-$3,000/ mo. Studio, 1,2,3 Beds

The Rivington Center Meadow Ln/1 Winding Ridge Condos/Town Homes $300,000-$600,000 2 and 3 Beds

Sterling Woods 17 Silversmith Dr Condos $275,000-$425,000 2 and 3 Beds

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Students From Existing HousingNeighborhood School Year K-5 6-8 9-12 Total K-12

2016-17 33 11 12 562017-18 34 15 20 692018-19 47 17 16 802019-20 58 19 20 972016-17 24 7 6 372017-18 20 7 5 322018-19 16 6 5 272019-20 16 7 7 302016-17 8 9 7 242017-18 12 7 7 262018-19 11 6 6 232019-20 15 5 10 302016-17 6 2 1 92017-18 6 1 5 122018-19 8 2 6 162019-20 16 7 232016-17 1 1 22017-18 11 3 3 172018-19 12 3 10 252019-20 16 7 9 32

Abbey Woods (470 Units)

Arlington Woods (99

Units)

Sterling Woods (434

Units)

The Rivington (721 Units)

Kennedy Flats (374 Units)

32

The Reserve has the highest potential for student generation due to the total number of units and varied unit breakdown and varied price range

Brookview Commons, Phase II was approved in June 2019 at 333 Main St. There are 149 planned units, studio – 2 bedroom, generating an estimated 29 K-12 students at current rates

Estimated Student Generation

Source: City of Danbury Planning Department

Development Name

Total Units (With no

Certificate of Occupancy)

Estimated K-5 Students

Estimated 6-8 Students

Estimated 9-12 students

Estimated K-12 Students

The Reserve/Phase 4A 61 7 3 3 13The Reserve/Phase 4B 38 5 2 2 9The Reserve/Phase 4C 172 19 6 8 33The Reserve/Phase 11 113 13 4 5 22

Brookview Commons, Phase II 149 17 5 7 29Total 533 61 20 25 106

Estimated Students Generated From Future Development

33

Sampled two blocks to understand student generation from older multi-family stock

Much higher student generation rate than new construction: 0.86 students per unit compared to .02 students per new multi-family unit

Students From Existing Housing

Neighborhood School Year K-5 6-8 9-12 Total K-12 Student Generation Rate

2016-17 9 2 3 14 0.932017-18 9 1 2 12 0.802018-19 9 2 5 16 1.072019-20 9 3 4 16 1.072016-17 12 8 5 25 0.692017-18 12 7 5 24 0.672018-19 15 5 8 28 0.782019-20 17 6 9 32 0.89

4-Year Average 12 4 5 21 0.86

Osborne St (1-4 Fam: 15 Units)

Rowan St (1-3 Units: 36 Units)

Osborne St Rowan St

34

International in-migration accounts for 51% of new-to-district students identified in 2019-20

Over 90% of international in-migration comes from Central, Latin, or South American countries Source of significant ELL/bilingual educational needs

International In-Migration

35

18% of this year’s enrollment born outside of the US Brazil, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Guatemala and India are the top 5 countries

of origin, representing almost 80% of all international students

International Enrollment (PK-12)

36

Districtwide Language Needs

11% increase in ELL students from last year with 3,341 in grades K-12 in 2019-20

56% of 2019-20 ELL students are also new-to-district – need for additional resources

Primarily concentrated in the downtown area

37

ELL Students Grades K-12 in 2019-20

• High concentration in downtown Danbury

• Of total ELL population, 16% reside in Park Ave, 12% in Ellsworth Ave, and 11% in King Street areas

38

• Add map with utilization % by district

CURRENT K-5 ENROLLMENT AND CAPACITYElementary School Utilization

• Based on 2019-20 enrollment and DPS provided building capacities

• Several districts in Danbury are over 100% capacity including Hayestown, King Street, Park Ave, Ellsworth Ave, Shelter Rock, South St. and Stadley Rough

• King Street’s utilization is an average between the primary and intermediate schools

39

Projections Primer The Cohort Survival Methodology Relies on Observed Data from

the Recent Past in Order to Project the Near Future Persistency Ratios Calculated From Historic Enrollment Data to

Determine Growth or Loss in a Class as It Progresses Through School System

Persistency Ratios Account for the Various External Factors Affecting Enrollments: Housing Characteristics, Residential Development, Economic Conditions, Student Transfers In and Out of System, and Student Mobility

Changes in Population, Housing Stock and Tenure, and Economic Conditions Help Explain Persistency Ratios

40

Enrollment History For the first time, all 6 elementary cohorts are larger than 900 students Larger Kindergarten cohorts that started matriculating in the 07-08 and

08-09 school years are now juniors and seniors in high school Larger than usual 9th and 11th grade classes Unusual low growth year in 2018-19 followed by unusual high growth

year in 2019-20


Year Birth Year

Births K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 PK PK-12 Total

K-12 Total

K-5 Total

6-8 Total

9-12 Total

2001-02 1996 1,067 747 734 774 704 688 713 753 721 741 813 679 615 562 323 9,567 9,244 4,360 2,215 2,6692002-03 1997 1,076 729 773 722 757 683 692 707 757 726 809 679 693 604 166 9,497 9,331 4,356 2,190 2,7852003-04 1998 996 661 782 743 722 757 693 697 711 771 847 720 666 652 105 9,527 9,422 4,358 2,179 2,8852004-05 1999 1,076 754 728 738 715 682 752 685 706 696 906 726 660 640 168 9,556 9,388 4,369 2,087 2,9322005-06 2000 1,069 742 773 705 723 711 683 718 679 716 878 773 675 660 150 9,586 9,436 4,337 2,113 2,9862006-07 2001 1,092 766 792 775 703 717 696 691 725 705 853 724 728 662 178 9,715 9,537 4,449 2,121 2,9672007-08 2002 1,126 825 800 767 762 701 721 719 701 755 835 717 704 677 183 9,867 9,684 4,576 2,175 2,9332008-09 2003 1,196 898 856 808 769 756 708 693 713 719 843 729 680 673 196 10,041 9,845 4,795 2,125 2,9252009-10 2004 1,028 791 914 847 797 773 761 700 714 730 845 721 701 676 216 10,186 9,970 4,883 2,144 2,9432010-11 2005 1,169 842 836 915 837 803 786 758 710 741 719 835 700 724 137 10,343 10,206 5,019 2,209 2,9782011-12 2006 1,192 875 900 816 907 818 805 747 754 730 839 727 735 680 155 10,488 10,333 5,121 2,231 2,9812012-13 2007 1,213 869 917 870 813 899 810 765 752 777 826 719 692 728 164 10,601 10,437 5,178 2,294 2,9652013-14 2008 1,234 881 939 889 858 829 900 773 768 751 868 711 676 706 213 10,762 10,549 5,296 2,292 2,9612014-15 2009 1,178 881 921 929 869 863 821 846 785 784 859 752 658 714 230 10,912 10,682 5,284 2,415 2,9832015-16 2010 1,141 916 925 926 913 837 869 792 870 813 883 727 728 714 244 11,157 10,913 5,386 2,475 3,0522016-17 2011 1,076 874 921 923 926 940 840 847 822 891 900 762 725 755 247 11,373 11,126 5,424 2,560 3,1422017-18 2012 1,093 903 895 922 927 942 927 806 864 835 943 794 727 764 233 11,482 11,249 5,516 2,505 3,2282018-19 2013 1,099 901 903 894 913 922 920 896 826 879 870 823 788 718 279 11,532 11,253 5,453 2,601 3,1992019-20 2014 1,052 925 905 934 900 929 945 936 939 861 974 805 847 772 286 11,958 11,672 5,538 2,736 3,398

41

Persistency above 1 = in-migration through move-in or retention Most grades saw some in-migration this year Estimate of migration based on 1st through 7th and 2nd through 8th grade cohorts

from year to year – highest rate of in-migration of the past 17 years in 2019-20

Persistency Ratios

Year Birth-K K-1 1-2 2-3 3-4 4-5 5-6 6-7 7-8 8-9 9-10 10-11 11-12Est. of Elem Migration

2002-03 0.6775 1.0348 0.9837 0.9780 0.9702 1.0058 0.9916 1.0053 1.0069 1.0918 0.8352 1.0206 0.9821 -0.71%2003-04 0.6637 1.0727 0.9612 1.0000 1.0000 1.0146 1.0072 1.0057 1.0185 1.1667 0.8900 0.9809 0.9408 0.76%2004-05 0.7007 1.1014 0.9437 0.9623 0.9446 0.9934 0.9885 1.0129 0.9789 1.1751 0.8571 0.9167 0.9610 -2.01%2005-06 0.6941 1.0252 0.9684 0.9797 0.9944 1.0015 0.9548 0.9912 1.0142 1.2615 0.8532 0.9298 1.0000 -1.12%2006-07 0.7015 1.0674 1.0026 0.9972 0.9917 0.9789 1.0117 1.0097 1.0383 1.1913 0.8246 0.9418 0.9807 0.43%2007-08 0.7327 1.0444 0.9684 0.9832 0.9972 1.0056 1.0330 1.0145 1.0414 1.1844 0.8406 0.9724 0.9299 1.21%2008-09 0.7508 1.0376 1.0100 1.0026 0.9921 1.0100 0.9612 0.9917 1.0257 1.1166 0.8731 0.9484 0.9560 -0.30%2009-10 0.7695 1.0178 0.9895 0.9864 1.0052 1.0066 0.9887 1.0303 1.0238 1.1752 0.8553 0.9616 0.9941 0.63%2010-11 0.7203 1.0569 1.0011 0.9882 1.0075 1.0168 0.9961 1.0143 1.0378 0.9849 0.9882 0.9709 1.0328 0.94%2011-12 0.7341 1.0689 0.9761 0.9913 0.9773 1.0025 0.9504 0.9947 1.0282 1.1323 1.0111 0.8802 0.9714 -1.00%2012-13 0.7164 1.0480 0.9667 0.9963 0.9912 0.9902 0.9503 1.0067 1.0305 1.1315 0.8570 0.9519 0.9905 -0.64%2013-14 0.7139 1.0806 0.9695 0.9862 1.0197 1.0011 0.9543 1.0039 0.9987 1.1171 0.8608 0.9402 1.0202 -0.61%2014-15 0.7479 1.0454 0.9894 0.9775 1.0058 0.9903 0.9400 1.0155 1.0208 1.1438 0.8664 0.9255 1.0562 -0.98%2015-16 0.8028 1.0499 1.0054 0.9828 0.9632 1.0070 0.9647 1.0284 1.0357 1.1263 0.8463 0.9681 1.0851 -0.37%2016-17 0.8123 1.0055 0.9978 1.0000 1.0296 1.0036 0.9747 1.0379 1.0241 1.1070 0.8630 0.9972 1.0371 1.13%2017-18 0.8262 1.0240 1.0011 1.0043 1.0173 0.9862 0.9595 1.0201 1.0158 1.0584 0.8822 0.9541 1.0538 0.06%2018-19 0.8198 1.0000 0.9989 0.9902 0.9946 0.9766 0.9666 1.0248 1.0174 1.0419 0.8727 0.9924 0.9876 -0.59%2019-20 0.8793 1.0044 1.0343 1.0067 1.0175 1.0249 1.0174 1.0480 1.0424 1.1081 0.9253 1.0292 0.9797 2.59%

Long Term Avg. 0.7480 1.0436 0.9871 0.9896 0.9955 1.0009 0.9784 1.0142 1.0222 1.1286 0.8779 0.9601 0.9977

5-Year Avg. 0.8281 1.0168 1.0075 0.9968 1.0044 0.9997 0.9766 1.0318 1.0271 1.0883 0.8779 0.9882 1.0287

3-Year Avg. 0.8418 1.0095 1.0114 1.0004 1.0098 0.9959 0.9812 1.0310 1.0252 1.0695 0.8934 0.9919 1.0070

3-Year Wgt Avg. 0.8506 1.0062 1.0170 1.0008 1.0098 1.0024 0.9908 1.0356 1.0296 1.0778 0.9006 1.0044 0.9947

2-Year Avg 0.8496 1.0022 1.0166 0.9985 1.0061 1.0008 0.9920 1.0364 1.0299 1.0750 0.8990 1.0108 0.9837

Kindergarten through 12th Grade Persistency Ratios by School Year2002-2003 to 2019-20


42

Narrowing of gap between births and K enrollments continues Narrower gap

indicates more in-migration of families with children Birth – K ratios in

Danbury typical of more suburban school districts

Kindergarten Enrollment

Year Danbury Derby Hamden Meriden Norwalk Shelton2008-09 0.7508 0.9925 0.6557 0.7969 0.6920 0.95942009-10 0.7695 0.8242 0.6977 0.8123 0.7200 0.78962010-11 0.7203 0.8562 0.7211 0.8024 0.7020 0.90832011-12 0.7341 0.7143 0.6611 0.7500 0.7290 0.82962012-13 0.7164 0.7952 0.6519 0.8479 0.7410 0.92662013-14 0.7139 0.8146 0.6513 0.7981 0.7120 0.78492014-15 0.7479 0.7794 0.6525 0.8329 0.7110 0.90222015-16 0.8028 0.7863 0.6192 0.8053 0.7510 1.00312016-17 0.8123 0.7313 0.5915 0.8261 0.6890 1.04172017-18 0.8262 0.7165 0.6201 0.7751 0.7110 0.99672018-19 0.8198 0.5425 0.6261 0.8204 0.7320 1.0233

Examples of Birth-K Ratios from Other Communities

43

Projections Assumptions Federal immigration policies persist High projections: continuation of 2019-20 year trends, including in-

migration rates Medium projections: averages divergent trends of last two years Low projections: average trend of last three years Other specific assumptions built into the models:

Current private and other public school enrollment trends persist PK enrollments remain at current levels AIS Magnet total enrollment remains at 400 students starting 2019-20 Westside enrollment will be held at 250 students per grade from 2020-21

onward Hayestown Early Academy Skills classes (K) remain in place

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Medium and high projections show continued 5-7% increase in total PK-12 enrollment over the next five years prior to stabilizing or slightly decreasing Low projections project a 3% increase over the next five years

before returning to current levels

PK-12th Enrollment Projections

10,04110,18610,34310,48810,60110,76210,91211,157

11,37311,48211,53211,958

9,000

9,500

10,000

10,500

11,000

11,500

12,000

12,500

13,000

13,500

PK - 12 Actual and Projected Enrollments

High Med Low Actual

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All three models project growth in K-12 over next five years, and all three are provided for planning purposes

In-migration of students needs to be monitored closely, both in terms of net migration across grade groupings, and numbers of students entering the District for the first time

For facilities planning, recommend using the high projection model for planning, and updating regularly during design phases

Stability in most recent sales, rental vacancy and permitting activity suggests medium model best fits data; however, in-migration not necessarily responsive to these metrics

PK-12th Enrollment Projections

PK-12 Total

K-12 Total

K-5 Total

6-8 Total

9-12 Total

# 791 787 79 149 559% 6.6% 6.7% 1.4% 5.4% 16.5%# 847 843 -92 247 688% 7.1% 7.2% -1.7% 9.0% 20.2%

Change

Five Years

Ten Years

High Model

PK-12 Total

K-12 Total

K-5 Total

6-8 Total

9-12 Total

# 563 559 -72 103 528% 4.7% 4.8% -1.3% 3.8% 15.5%# 344 340 -319 123 536% 2.9% 2.9% -5.8% 4.5% 15.8%

Medium Model

Five Years

Ten Years

Change

PK-12 Total

K-12 Total

K-5 Total

6-8 Total

9-12 Total

# 370 366 -111 56 421% 3.1% 3.1% -2.0% 2.0% 12.4%# 9 5 -446 51 400% 0.1% 0.0% -8.1% 1.9% 11.8%

Change

Five Years

Ten Years

Low Model

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High Model

PK-12th Projection - High

YearBirth Year

Births K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 PKPK-12 Total

K-12 Total

K-5 Total

6-8 Total

9-12 Total

2019-20 2014 1,052 925 905 934 900 929 945 936 939 861 974 805 847 772 286 11,958 11,672 5,538 2,736 3,3982020-21 2015 1,067 919 938 921 939 916 934 934 968 966 933 880 798 861 290 12,197 11,907 5,567 2,868 3,4722021-22 2016 1,140 982 932 955 926 955 921 923 966 996 1,046 843 873 811 290 12,419 12,129 5,671 2,885 3,5732022-23 2017 1,074 925 996 948 960 942 960 910 954 994 1,079 945 836 888 290 12,627 12,337 5,731 2,858 3,7482023-24 2018 974 839 938 1,014 953 977 947 949 941 982 1,077 975 937 850 290 12,669 12,379 5,668 2,872 3,8392024-25 2019 974 839 851 955 1,020 970 982 936 981 968 1,064 973 967 953 290 12,749 12,459 5,617 2,885 3,9572025-26 2020 1,046 901 851 866 960 1,038 975 971 968 1,010 1,049 962 965 983 290 12,789 12,499 5,591 2,949 3,9592026-27 2021 1,042 898 914 866 871 977 1,044 964 1,004 996 1,094 948 954 981 290 12,801 12,511 5,570 2,964 3,9772027-28 2022 1,022 881 911 930 871 886 982 1,032 997 1,033 1,079 989 940 970 290 12,791 12,501 5,461 3,062 3,9782028-29 2023 1,012 872 894 927 935 886 891 971 1,067 1,026 1,119 975 981 956 290 12,790 12,500 5,405 3,064 4,0312029-30 2024 1,019 878 884 910 932 951 891 881 1,004 1,098 1,111 1,011 967 997 290 12,805 12,515 5,446 2,983 4,086

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Medium Model

PK-12th Projection - Medium

School Year

Birth Year


K-12 Total

K-5 Total

6-8 Total

9-12 Total

2019-20 2014 1,052 925 905 934 900 929 945 936 939 861 974 805 847 772 286 11,958 11,672 5,538 2,736 3,3982020-21 2015 1,067 910 927 920 933 905 930 936 969 967 926 876 814 833 290 12,136 11,846 5,525 2,872 3,4492021-22 2016 1,140 972 912 942 919 939 906 921 969 998 1,040 832 885 801 290 12,326 12,036 5,590 2,888 3,5582022-23 2017 1,074 916 974 927 941 925 940 898 954 998 1,073 935 841 871 290 12,483 12,193 5,623 2,850 3,7202023-24 2018 974 831 918 990 926 947 926 931 930 982 1,073 965 945 827 290 12,481 12,191 5,538 2,843 3,8102024-25 2019 974 831 833 933 989 932 948 917 964 958 1,056 965 975 930 290 12,521 12,231 5,466 2,839 3,9262025-26 2020 1,022 872 833 847 932 995 933 939 950 993 1,030 949 975 959 290 12,497 12,207 5,412 2,882 3,9132026-27 2021 1,014 865 874 847 846 938 996 924 972 978 1,067 926 959 959 290 12,441 12,151 5,366 2,874 3,9112027-28 2022 1,007 859 867 889 846 851 939 987 957 1,001 1,051 959 936 943 290 12,375 12,085 5,251 2,945 3,8892028-29 2023 1,005 857 861 881 888 851 852 930 1,022 985 1,076 945 969 921 290 12,328 12,038 5,190 2,937 3,9112029-30 2024 1,008 860 859 875 880 893 852 844 963 1,052 1,059 967 955 953 290 12,302 12,012 5,219 2,859 3,934

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Low Model

PK-12th Projection - Low

YearBirth Year


K-12 Total

K-5 Total

6-8 Total

9-12 Total

2019-20 2014 1,052 925 905 934 900 929 945 936 939 861 974 805 847 772 286 11,958 11,672 5,538 2,736 3,3982020-21 2015 1,067 898 934 915 934 909 925 927 965 963 921 870 798 853 290 12,102 11,812 5,515 2,855 3,4422021-22 2016 1,140 960 907 945 915 943 905 908 956 989 1,030 823 863 804 290 12,238 11,948 5,575 2,853 3,5202022-23 2017 1,074 904 969 917 945 924 939 888 936 980 1,058 920 816 869 290 12,355 12,065 5,598 2,804 3,6632023-24 2018 974 820 913 980 917 954 920 921 916 960 1,048 945 913 822 290 12,319 12,029 5,504 2,797 3,7282024-25 2019 974 820 828 923 980 926 950 903 950 939 1,027 936 937 919 290 12,328 12,038 5,427 2,792 3,8192025-26 2020 1,007 848 828 837 923 990 922 932 931 974 1,004 918 928 944 290 12,269 11,979 5,348 2,837 3,7942026-27 2021 985 829 856 837 837 932 986 905 961 954 1,042 897 911 934 290 12,171 11,881 5,277 2,820 3,7842027-28 2022 989 833 837 866 837 845 928 967 933 985 1,020 931 890 917 290 12,079 11,789 5,146 2,885 3,7582028-29 2023 994 837 841 847 866 845 842 911 997 957 1,053 911 923 896 290 12,016 11,726 5,078 2,865 3,7832029-30 2024 989 833 845 851 847 874 842 826 939 1,022 1,024 941 904 929 290 11,967 11,677 5,092 2,787 3,798

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K-5 Projected Enrollments - High

Note: Great Plain Self-Contained Bilingual program students and Hayestown EAS students are returned to home schools in these 2016-17 figures

School 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 TrendAIS Magnet 393 396 376 365 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400Ellsworth 454 469 469 522 544 572 605 622 634 610 605 591 583 589Great Plain 235 257 252 223 215 221 223 221 217 222 220 215 214 215Hayestown 408 424 402 422 418 429 441 440 455 450 450 443 436 440King St 793 839 822 841 842 856 869 829 818 831 829 799 782 793Mill Ridge 353 339 374 382 392 396 379 382 372 364 361 366 369 365Morris St 378 361 332 334 340 331 321 310 300 303 301 294 292 295Park Ave 603 627 639 638 637 653 663 665 632 639 637 623 619 626Pembroke 347 344 342 363 364 388 413 414 412 407 406 398 394 399Shelter Rock 548 543 542 524 496 482 477 458 455 452 452 445 440 444South St 404 407 390 393 388 394 386 385 381 375 374 366 363 365Stadley Rough 505 507 511 531 530 544 553 544 535 536 533 521 515 520TOTAL: 5,421 5,513 5,451 5,538 5,566 5,666 5,730 5,670 5,611 5,589 5,568 5,461 5,407 5,451

# % # %AIS Magnet 35 9.6% 35 9.6%Ellsworth 112 21.5% 67 12.8%Great Plain -6 -2.7% -8 -3.6%Hayestown 33 7.8% 18 4.3%King St -23 -2.7% -48 -5.7%Mill Ridge -10 -2.6% -17 -4.5%Morris St -34 -10.2% -39 -11.7%Park Ave -6 -0.9% -12 -1.9%Pembroke 49 13.5% 36 9.9%Shelter Rock -69 -13.2% -80 -15.3%South St -12 -3.1% -28 -7.1%Stadley Rough 4 0.8% -11 -2.1%

Five Year Projected Change

Ten Year Projected Change

DPS placement of programming significantly impacts neighborhood school district trends

Projections assume current programming remains in place

Growth at Ellsworth, Pembroke, Hayestown –difference of how much growth between high, medium and low models

Totals do not match district-wide due to rounding.

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K-5 Projected Enrollments - Medium



# % # %AIS Magnet 35 9.6% 35 9.6%Ellsworth 94 18.0% 39 7.5%Great Plain -12 -5.4% -18 -8.1%Hayestown 20 4.7% -1 -0.2%King St -48 -5.7% -86 -10.2%Mill Ridge -18 -4.7% -32 -8.4%Morris St -44 -13.2% -53 -15.9%Park Ave -22 -3.4% -41 -6.4%Pembroke 39 10.7% 17 4.7%Shelter Rock -81 -15.5% -100 -19.1%South St -22 -5.6% -44 -11.2%Stadley Rough -11 -2.1% -35 -6.6%




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K-5 Projected Enrollments - Low



# % # %AIS Magnet 35 9.6% 35 9.6%Ellsworth 89 17.0% 26 5.0%Great Plain -13 -5.8% -23 -10.3%Hayestown 17 4.0% -12 -2.8%King St -53 -6.3% -104 -12.4%Mill Ridge -22 -5.8% -42 -11.0%Morris St -46 -13.8% -60 -18.0%Park Ave -28 -4.4% -57 -8.9%Pembroke 35 9.6% 6 1.7%Shelter Rock -86 -16.4% -112 -21.4%South St -25 -6.4% -53 -13.5%Stadley Rough -14 -2.6% -48 -9.0%




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6-8 Projected Enrollments - High

# % # %Broadview 40 4.0% 83 8.4%Rogers Park 53 5.0% 108 10.3%Westside 58 8.4% 58 8.4%



1,011968

977 991 1,011 1,046 1,028 1,023 1,031 1,062 1,0681,116 1,115

1,074

950 932

9811,051

1,107 1,089 1,080 1,099 1,104 1,137 1,1461,196 1,199

1,159

595 601 639692

750 750 750 750 750 750 750 750 750 750

400500600700800900

1,0001,1001,2001,300

Danbury Middle Schools Projected 6-8 Enrollment - High

Broadview Rogers Park Westside

Assume Westside enrolls 250 per grade starting next year

Rogers Park growth outpaces Broadview’s in all models

Difference between high and medium models is degree of growth


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6-8 Projected Enrollments - Medium

1,011968

977 991 1,013 1,047 1,025 1,010 1,009 1,030 1,025 1,060 1,0541,014

950 932

9811,051

1,110 1,091 1,075 1,083 1,080 1,102 1,0991,135 1,133

1,095

595 601639

692750 750 750 750 750 750 750 750 750 750

400500600700800900

1,0001,1001,200

Danbury Middle Schools Projected 6-8 Enrollment - Medium


# % # %Broadview 18 1.8% 23 2.3%Rogers Park 29 2.8% 44 4.2%Westside 58 8.4% 58 8.4%




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6-8 Projected Enrollments - Low

1,011968

977 991 1,006 1,030 1,002 988 986 1,008 999 1,031 1,019979950 932

9811,051

1,102 1,073 1,052 1,059 1,056 1,079 1,071 1,104 1,0961,058

595 601639

692750 750 750 750 750 750 750 750 750 750

400500600700800900

1,0001,1001,200

Danbury Middle Schools Projected 6-8 Enrollment - Low


# % # %Broadview -5 -0.5% -12 -1.2%Rogers Park 5 0.5% 7 0.7%Westside 58 8.4% 58 8.4%


Ten Year Projected Change Low model projects very stable enrollments

at both Broadview and Rogers Park out five years, despite increases at both schools next year


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All three models project growth due to large middle and elementary cohorts already in the system

Ranges from 12 to 17% growth out five years

9-12 Enrollment Projections

Year 9 10 11 129-12 Total

2019-20 974 805 847 772 3,3982020-21 921 870 798 853 3,4422021-22 1,030 823 863 804 3,5202022-23 1,058 920 816 869 3,6632023-24 1,048 945 913 822 3,7282024-25 1,027 936 937 919 3,8192025-26 1,004 918 928 944 3,7942026-27 1,042 897 911 934 3,7842027-28 1,020 931 890 917 3,7582028-29 1,053 911 923 896 3,7832029-30 1,024 941 904 929 3,798

Low Model

Year 9 10 11 129-12 Total

2019-20 974 805 847 772 3,3982020-21 926 876 814 833 3,4492021-22 1,040 832 885 801 3,5582022-23 1,073 935 841 871 3,7202023-24 1,073 965 945 827 3,8102024-25 1,056 965 975 930 3,9262025-26 1,030 949 975 959 3,9132026-27 1,067 926 959 959 3,9112027-28 1,051 959 936 943 3,8892028-29 1,076 945 969 921 3,9112029-30 1,059 967 955 953 3,934

Medium Model

Year 9 10 11 129-12 Total

2019-20 974 805 847 772 3,3982020-21 933 880 798 861 3,4722021-22 1,046 843 873 811 3,5732022-23 1,079 945 836 888 3,7482023-24 1,077 975 937 850 3,8392024-25 1,064 973 967 953 3,9572025-26 1,049 962 965 983 3,9592026-27 1,094 948 954 981 3,9772027-28 1,079 989 940 970 3,9782028-29 1,119 975 981 956 4,0312029-30 1,111 1,011 967 997 4,086

High Model

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In-migration needs to be closely monitored through collaboration between City and Schools – City Health, Building, and Planning Departments and School District – all of whom assisted with this analysis

Facilities planning should begin with high projections model, remain flexible, and continually update persistency ratios throughout design phases

Conclusion

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