Post on 28-Jan-2021
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Energy Technology Perspectives 2020:A focus on transport
Jacob Teter, Jacopo Tattini 2 November, 2020
IEA 2020. All rights reserved. Page 2
Recent IEA analyses
Reports from the Energy Technology and Policy (ETP) Division
ETP Special Report on Clean Energy Innovation
Energy Technology Perspectives 2020
ETP Clean Energy Technology Guide
CCUS in Clean Energy Transitions: ETP Special Report
Global EV Outlook 2020; Entering the decade of electric drive?
Other analyses
Article: Batteries and hydrogen technology: keys for a clean energy future
Article: Clean energy progress after the Covid-19 crisis will need reliable supplies of critical minerals
Commentary: As the Covid-19 crisis hammers the auto industry, electric cars remain a bright spot
Commentary: Changes in transport behaviour during the Covid-19 crisis
Tracking Clean Energy Progress 2020; Transport; Hydrogen
The Covid-19 Crisis and Clean Energy Progress: Impact on sectors and technologies
https://www.iea.org/reports/clean-energy-innovationGlobal EV Outlook 2020; Entering the decade of electric drive?https://www.iea.org/articles/etp-clean-energy-technology-guidehttps://www.iea.org/events/ccus-in-clean-energy-transitions-etp-special-reporthttps://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2020https://www.iea.org/articles/batteries-and-hydrogen-technology-keys-for-a-clean-energy-futurehttps://www.iea.org/articles/clean-energy-progress-after-the-covid-19-crisis-will-need-reliable-supplies-of-critical-mineralshttps://www.iea.org/commentaries/as-the-covid-19-crisis-hammers-the-auto-industry-electric-cars-remain-a-bright-spothttps://www.iea.org/articles/changes-in-transport-behaviour-during-the-covid-19-crisishttps://www.iea.org/topics/tracking-clean-energy-progresshttps://www.iea.org/reports/tracking-transport-2020https://www.iea.org/fuels-and-technologies/hydrogenhttps://www.iea.org/articles/the-impact-of-the-covid-19-crisis-on-clean-energy-progresshttps://www.iea.org/reports/the-covid-19-crisis-and-clean-energy-progress/transport
Page 3IEA 2020. All rights reserved.
Setting the scene: Despite considerable inertia,
momentum is building for the clean energy transition
IEA 2020. All rights reserved. Page 4
0
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0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
GtC
O2/y
r
No target
Under discussion
In policy document
Proposed legislation
In law
Total emissions(right axis)
Governments are setting ambitious goals…
More and more sub-national, national, and supra-national governments are
setting targets to attain net-zero greenhouse gas emissions in the coming decades.
Carbon or climate
neutrality targetGovernment net-zero targets
Net-zero emissions targets from China, Japan and South Korea
have been announced subsequent to the publication of ETP 2020
IEA 2020. All rights reserved. Page 5
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
2019 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070
GtC
O2/y
r
Focusing on the power sector is not enough to reach climate goals
Clean energy technology progress in the power sector and with electric cars is encouraging, but alone not sufficient
to reach climate goals. About half of all CO2 emissions today are from industry, transport and buildings.
Net-zero emissions
Power generation
Electric cars
Airplanes, ships, trucks,
buses, etc.
Industry
Buildings & other
Global CO2 emissions reductions in the Sustainable Development Scenario, relative to baseline trends
IEA 2020. All rights reserved. Page 6
- 35
- 30
- 25
- 20
- 15
- 10
- 5
02019 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070
GtC
O2/y
rNet-zero emissions is not viable without a lot more innovation
Technologies at prototype or demonstration stage today contribute almost 35% of the emissions
reductions to 2070; a further 40% comes from technologies that are at early stages of adoption.
Global CO2 emissions reductions in the Sustainable Development Scenario, relative to baseline trends
Mature
Early adoption
Demonstration
Large prototype
Net-zero
emissions
Page 7IEA 2020. All rights reserved.
Transport
IEA 2020. All rights reserved. Page 8
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2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070
GtC
O2/y
r
Heavy-duty trucks, shipping, and aviation remain net emitters
Most modes of transport are decarbonised by 2070 in the Sustainable Development Scenario,
but trucking, shipping and aviation continue to emit due to challenges decarbonizing these modes.
Global CO2 emissions in transport by mode in the Sustainable Development Scenario
2&3-wheelers
Rail
Light
commercial
vehicles
Buses and
minibuses
Passenger
cars,
Aviation
Shipping
Medium- and heavy trucks
Buses and minibuses
Passenger cars
Light commercial vehicles
Rail
2&3-wheelers
IEA 2020. All rights reserved. Page 9
Decarbonising transport necessitates a shift to low-carbon fuels
In the Sustainable Development Scenario, electricity accounts for more than 35%, and hydrogen and hydrogen
derived fuels account for more than 30% of final energy demand in the transport sector by 2070
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2019 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070
Fin
al e
ne
rgy s
hare
Ammonia
Synthetic fuels
Hydrogen
Advanced biofuels
Conventional biofuels
Electricity
CNG / LPG
Residual fuel
Fossil fuel-based jet fuel
Diesel
Gasoline
Transport final energy demand in the Sustainable Development Scenario, 2019-2070
Page 10IEA 2020. All rights reserved.
Heavy duty trucking
IEA 2020. All rights reserved. Page 11
Regulations for heavy-duty vehicles are a critical first step
Vehicle efficiency and CO2 emissions standards for heavy-duty vehicles
are catching up with those for light-duty vehicles.
Share of vehicle sales in regions that have adopted fuel economy and/or CO2 emissions standards
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
LDVs HDVs LDVs HDVs LDVs HDVs
2005 2016 2019e
Others
Others with recent LDV regulations
India
European Union
Canada
United States
China
Japan
IEA 2020. All rights reserved. Page 12
Decarbonising trucks will require a broad portfolio of strategies
For heavy-duty trucks, operational and technical efficiency together contribute nearly 45%, electricity an additional 31%, and
hydrogen and biofuels together almost 35% of cumulative CO2 emission reductions in the Sustainable Development Scenario.
Global CO2 emissions from trucks by abatement measure (left) and technology readiness level (right)
in the Sustainable Development Scenario versus the Stated Policies Scenario
IEA 2020. All rights reserved. Page 13
Low-carbon fuels reduce CO2 emissions in trucking…
The fuel mix diversifies first to liquid fuels, before ultimately shifting to electricity and hydrogen.
Vehicle efficiency improvements by 40-45% as more trucks electrify or are equipped with fuel cells.
Global heavy-duty trucking energy demand and average vehicle efficiency in the Sustainable Development Scenario, 2019-70
0.0
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2019 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070
Fin
al e
ne
rgy d
em
and
(M
toe) Synthetic fuels
Hydrogen
Electricity
Biomethane
Ethanol
Biodiesel
Natural gas
Gasoline
Diesel
IEA 2020. All rights reserved. Page 14
…and zero-emission “destination” powertrains offer hope for decarbonising
Nearly half of medium-freight trucks have hybrid or full electric powertrains by 2040, while most medium- and
heavy-freight trucks operate with batteries or hydrogen fuel cells in 2070 in the Sustainable Development Scenario.
Heavy-duty truck fleet by powertrain in the Sustainable Development Scenario
0
20
40
60
80
100
MFTs HFTs MFTs HFTs MFTs HFTs
2019 2040 2070
Mill
ion
un
its
FCEV
BEV
PHEV
HEV
CNG/LNG
ICE
IEA 2020. All rights reserved. Page 15
Batteries and fuel cells fulfill different niches in road freight
The prospects for competing powertrain options hinge on improvements
in the cost and performance of batteries and fuel cells.
The effect of battery and fuel cell prices on total cost of ownership of heavy-duty trucks in long-haul operations
0.60
0.65
0.70
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0.90
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1.00
200 400 600 800 1000
To
tal co
st o
f o
wn
ers
hip
(U
SD
/km
)
Vehicle range (km)
BEV
FCEV
160 USD/kWh
80 USD/kWh
176 USD/kW
60 USD/kW
IEA 2020. All rights reserved. Page 16
Long-term technology options for transport: electricity and hydrogen
Prospects for competing powertrain options hinge on the future costs and performance of
batteries and fuel cells as well as accompanying infrastructure.
Total cost of ownership of heavy-duty trucks by low-carbon fuel in the Sustainable Development Scenario, 2040 and 2070
0.2
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0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
FCEV BEV 700 Hybridcatenary
Dieselhybrid
FCEV BEV 700 Hybridcatenary
Dieselhybrid
2040 2070
US
D/k
m Synthetic fuel (best case)
Biofuels (best case)
Low utilisation of infrastructure
Refuelling, charging
Electricity, hydrogen, fuel: supply + T&D
Operations and maintenance
Battery, fuel cell
Base truck cost
IEA 2020. All rights reserved. Page 17
Uncertainties in the competition and complementarity of batteries and fuel cells
1. Future trajectories of cost and performance (energy and power density,
durability, charging speed)
of batteries and fuel cells
• Future progress in battery chemistries and production processes
• Scale economies in fuel cell production
2. Future trajectories of cost and performance of producing and delivering
electricity and hydrogen.
(Variable renewables like solar and wind, batteries and other technologies for
energy storage, electolysers to make “green” hydrogen)
3. Operating and purchase costs will also be influenced by:
• The policy environment
• Costs and utilisation rate of the infrastructure (charging / hydrogen refuelling stations)
• The well-to-wheels efficiency of competing pathways
Page 18IEA 2020. All rights reserved.
Maritime shipping
IEA 2020. All rights reserved. Page 19
International shipping carries three-quarters of the world’s goods
Bulk carriers and container ships dominate in international shipping, together accounting for about 60% of
total energy use in the sub-sector – almost entirely in the form of oil – and CO2 emissions.
Global freight activity, energy consumption and CO2 emissions in international maritime shipping by vessel type and fuel, 2019
0
50
100
150
200
250
By vesseltype
By fuel
Final energy demand
Mto
e
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By vesseltype
By fuel
CO₂ emissions
Mt
CO
2
0
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60
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By vesseltype
By fuel
Activity
Trilli
on to
nn
e-k
m
Vessel types:
Fuels:
IEA 2020. All rights reserved. Page 20
Reducing shipping emissions requires efficiency and alternative fuels
Biofuels and energy efficiency are the main contributors to shipping emission reductions in the Sustainable
Development Scenario in the short term, while hydrogen and ammonia contribute more in the long term.
Global CO2 emissions reductions in shipping in the Sustainable Development Scenario relative
to the Stated Policies Scenario, 2019-70
IEA 2020. All rights reserved. Page 21
Ammonia, biofuels, and hydrogen replace oil in maritime shipping
Emissions from international shipping fall by more than four-fifths between 2019 and 2070 in the
Sustainable Development Scenario, mainly due to switching to biofuels and hydrogen-based fuels.
Global energy consumption and CO2 emissions in international shipping in the Sustainable Development Scenario, 2019-70
0
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2019 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070
Mt
CO
2
Mto
e
Hydrogen
Ammonia
Electricity
Gas
Biofuels
Oil
CO₂ emissions
IEA 2020. All rights reserved. Page 22
All these alternative low-carbon fuels and powertrains are expensive
The high cost of storing hydrogen makes it less economical than ammonia. The economics and technical
performance of electric vessels need to improve to become a competitive technology for long-distance shipping.
Total cost of ownership of hydrogen, ammonia and electric vessels by ship type, 2030
0
20
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80
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VLSFO FChydrogen
ICEammonia
Electric VLSFO FChydrogen
ICEammonia
Electric VLSFO FChydrogen
ICEammonia
Electric
Tanker Container ship Bulk carrier
US
D/k
m
Base vessel ICE / Fuel cell Storage
Infrastructure H2 / NH3 / electricity Battery
Fossil fuel Carbon price (USD 100/t CO2)
Page 23IEA 2020. All rights reserved.
Aviation
IEA 2020. All rights reserved. Page 24
Aviation activity is set to rebound by the mid-2020s
Despite strong policy measures, including taxes that reduce overall demand, air passenger traffic increases
by about 350% through to 2070 in the Sustainable Development Scenario.
Passenger aviation activity by region in the Sustainable Development Scenario, 2019-70
0
5
10
15
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25
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2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070
Trilli
on r
pk
Africa
Latin America and Caribbean
Middle East
Europe
North America
Asia and Pacific
STEPS
IEA 2020. All rights reserved. Page 25
Long-term efficiency and fuel opportunities depend on distance
Technology potential for CO2 emissions reduction declines as distances increase
Flights
Fuel
Orange: li-S battery (800 Wh/kg, pack level)
Blue: ASSB battery (400 Wh/kg, pack level)
Full electrification
Hybrid electric
Advanced aircraft and engines, SAF
Example efficiency opportunities
in operations and technology
Current generation• Single engine or electric taxiing
• Cabin weight reduction
• Congestion management
• Optimised departures / approaches
• Reduced cruise inefficiency
• Increased engine / aero maintenance
• Increased use of composites
Next gen• Ultra-high bypass ratio
• Double-bubble
• Open rotor
Disruptive (likely 2040 at earliest)• Hybrid-electric aircraft
(Boundary layer ingestion)
• Blended wing-body aircraft
• Full electric aircraft
• Hydrogen jet engine aircraft
• H2 fuel cell aircraft
IEA 2020. All rights reserved. Page 26
Sustainable Aviation Fuels are critical to reducing aviation emissions
Rigorous policies to promote the development and adoption of sustainable aviation fuels play the leading role
in reducing the climate impacts of aviation in the Sustainable Development Scenario.
Global aviation fuel consumption in the Sustainable Development Scenario
and total fuel use in the Stated Policies Scenario, 2019-70
0
200
400
600
800
2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070
Mto
e/y
r
Synthetic fuels
Biofuels
Fossil jet kerosene
STEPS
IEA 2020. All rights reserved. Page 27
Strong policies will be needed to reduce aviation emissions
Rigorous polices that promote sustainable aviation fuels, efficiency and shifts to alternative
transport modes reduce emissions substantially in the Sustainable Development Scenario.
Global CO2 emissions in aviation by abatement measure (left) and technology readiness level (right) in the
Sustainable Development Scenario relative to the Stated Policies Scenario
IEA 2020. All rights reserved. Page 28
Policies will be needed to incentivise alternatives to fossil-derived jet fuel
With a carbon price of USD 150/tonne, sustainable aviation fuels begin to compete with oil-based jet kerosene,
though policy support will need to account for the volatility and uncertainty of future feedstock costs and oil prices.
Levelised production costs of sustainable aviation fuels in 2050
-1.0
-0.5
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0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
$50/bbl crude
HEFA BTL BTL w CCUS Synthetic fuels from
biogenic CO₂ and
electrolysis
Synthetic fuels from
DAC CO₂ and
electrolysis
Fossil jet kerosene
USD
/L
CAPEX OPEX Fossil fuel cost
Biofuels feedstock cost - low Biofuel feedstock cost - high Electricity cost - low
Electricity cost - high CO₂ feedstock CO₂ price impact USD 150/tCO₂
IEA 2020. All rights reserved. Page 29