Energy Technology Perspectives 2020 · 2020. 11. 16. · Commentary: As the Covid-19 crisis hammers...

Energy Technology Perspectives 2020:A focus on transport

Jacob Teter, Jacopo Tattini 2 November, 2020

IEA 2020. All rights reserved. Page 2

Recent IEA analyses

Reports from the Energy Technology and Policy (ETP) Division

ETP Special Report on Clean Energy Innovation

Energy Technology Perspectives 2020

ETP Clean Energy Technology Guide

CCUS in Clean Energy Transitions: ETP Special Report

Global EV Outlook 2020; Entering the decade of electric drive?

Other analyses

Article: Batteries and hydrogen technology: keys for a clean energy future

Article: Clean energy progress after the Covid-19 crisis will need reliable supplies of critical minerals

Commentary: As the Covid-19 crisis hammers the auto industry, electric cars remain a bright spot

Commentary: Changes in transport behaviour during the Covid-19 crisis

Tracking Clean Energy Progress 2020; Transport; Hydrogen

The Covid-19 Crisis and Clean Energy Progress: Impact on sectors and technologies

https://www.iea.org/reports/clean-energy-innovationGlobal EV Outlook 2020; Entering the decade of electric drive?https://www.iea.org/articles/etp-clean-energy-technology-guidehttps://www.iea.org/events/ccus-in-clean-energy-transitions-etp-special-reporthttps://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2020https://www.iea.org/articles/batteries-and-hydrogen-technology-keys-for-a-clean-energy-futurehttps://www.iea.org/articles/clean-energy-progress-after-the-covid-19-crisis-will-need-reliable-supplies-of-critical-mineralshttps://www.iea.org/commentaries/as-the-covid-19-crisis-hammers-the-auto-industry-electric-cars-remain-a-bright-spothttps://www.iea.org/articles/changes-in-transport-behaviour-during-the-covid-19-crisishttps://www.iea.org/topics/tracking-clean-energy-progresshttps://www.iea.org/reports/tracking-transport-2020https://www.iea.org/fuels-and-technologies/hydrogenhttps://www.iea.org/articles/the-impact-of-the-covid-19-crisis-on-clean-energy-progresshttps://www.iea.org/reports/the-covid-19-crisis-and-clean-energy-progress/transport

IEA 2020. All rights reserved.

Setting the scene: Despite considerable inertia,

momentum is building for the clean energy transition


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GtC

O2/y

r

No target

Under discussion

In policy document

Proposed legislation

In law

Total emissions(right axis)

Governments are setting ambitious goals…

More and more sub-national, national, and supra-national governments are

setting targets to attain net-zero greenhouse gas emissions in the coming decades.

Carbon or climate

neutrality targetGovernment net-zero targets

Net-zero emissions targets from China, Japan and South Korea

have been announced subsequent to the publication of ETP 2020


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2019 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070

GtC

O2/y

r

Focusing on the power sector is not enough to reach climate goals

Clean energy technology progress in the power sector and with electric cars is encouraging, but alone not sufficient

to reach climate goals. About half of all CO2 emissions today are from industry, transport and buildings.

Net-zero emissions

Power generation

Electric cars

Airplanes, ships, trucks,

buses, etc.

Industry

Buildings & other

Global CO2 emissions reductions in the Sustainable Development Scenario, relative to baseline trends


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- 25

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02019 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070

GtC

O2/y

rNet-zero emissions is not viable without a lot more innovation

Technologies at prototype or demonstration stage today contribute almost 35% of the emissions

reductions to 2070; a further 40% comes from technologies that are at early stages of adoption.

Global CO2 emissions reductions in the Sustainable Development Scenario, relative to baseline trends

Mature

Early adoption

Demonstration

Large prototype

Net-zero

emissions


Transport


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Heavy-duty trucks, shipping, and aviation remain net emitters

Most modes of transport are decarbonised by 2070 in the Sustainable Development Scenario,

but trucking, shipping and aviation continue to emit due to challenges decarbonizing these modes.

Global CO2 emissions in transport by mode in the Sustainable Development Scenario

2&3-wheelers

Rail

Light

commercial

vehicles

Buses and

minibuses

Passenger

cars,

Aviation

Shipping

Medium- and heavy trucks

Buses and minibuses

Passenger cars

Light commercial vehicles

Rail

2&3-wheelers


Decarbonising transport necessitates a shift to low-carbon fuels

In the Sustainable Development Scenario, electricity accounts for more than 35%, and hydrogen and hydrogen

derived fuels account for more than 30% of final energy demand in the transport sector by 2070

0%

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al e

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rgy s

hare

Ammonia

Synthetic fuels

Hydrogen

Advanced biofuels

Conventional biofuels

Electricity

CNG / LPG

Residual fuel

Fossil fuel-based jet fuel

Diesel

Gasoline

Transport final energy demand in the Sustainable Development Scenario, 2019-2070


Heavy duty trucking


Regulations for heavy-duty vehicles are a critical first step

Vehicle efficiency and CO2 emissions standards for heavy-duty vehicles

are catching up with those for light-duty vehicles.

Share of vehicle sales in regions that have adopted fuel economy and/or CO2 emissions standards

0%

10%

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LDVs HDVs LDVs HDVs LDVs HDVs

2005 2016 2019e

Others

Others with recent LDV regulations

India

European Union

Canada

United States

China

Japan


Decarbonising trucks will require a broad portfolio of strategies

For heavy-duty trucks, operational and technical efficiency together contribute nearly 45%, electricity an additional 31%, and

hydrogen and biofuels together almost 35% of cumulative CO2 emission reductions in the Sustainable Development Scenario.

Global CO2 emissions from trucks by abatement measure (left) and technology readiness level (right)

in the Sustainable Development Scenario versus the Stated Policies Scenario


Low-carbon fuels reduce CO2 emissions in trucking…

The fuel mix diversifies first to liquid fuels, before ultimately shifting to electricity and hydrogen.

Vehicle efficiency improvements by 40-45% as more trucks electrify or are equipped with fuel cells.

Global heavy-duty trucking energy demand and average vehicle efficiency in the Sustainable Development Scenario, 2019-70

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toe) Synthetic fuels

Hydrogen

Electricity

Biomethane

Ethanol

Biodiesel

Natural gas

Gasoline

Diesel


…and zero-emission “destination” powertrains offer hope for decarbonising

Nearly half of medium-freight trucks have hybrid or full electric powertrains by 2040, while most medium- and

heavy-freight trucks operate with batteries or hydrogen fuel cells in 2070 in the Sustainable Development Scenario.

Heavy-duty truck fleet by powertrain in the Sustainable Development Scenario

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MFTs HFTs MFTs HFTs MFTs HFTs

2019 2040 2070

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ion

un

its

FCEV

BEV

PHEV

HEV

CNG/LNG

ICE


Batteries and fuel cells fulfill different niches in road freight

The prospects for competing powertrain options hinge on improvements

in the cost and performance of batteries and fuel cells.

The effect of battery and fuel cell prices on total cost of ownership of heavy-duty trucks in long-haul operations

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tal co

st o

f o

wn

ers

hip

(U

SD

/km

)

Vehicle range (km)

BEV

FCEV

160 USD/kWh

80 USD/kWh

176 USD/kW

60 USD/kW


Long-term technology options for transport: electricity and hydrogen

Prospects for competing powertrain options hinge on the future costs and performance of

batteries and fuel cells as well as accompanying infrastructure.

Total cost of ownership of heavy-duty trucks by low-carbon fuel in the Sustainable Development Scenario, 2040 and 2070

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FCEV BEV 700 Hybridcatenary

Dieselhybrid

FCEV BEV 700 Hybridcatenary

Dieselhybrid

2040 2070

US

D/k

m Synthetic fuel (best case)

Biofuels (best case)

Low utilisation of infrastructure

Refuelling, charging

Electricity, hydrogen, fuel: supply + T&D

Operations and maintenance

Battery, fuel cell

Base truck cost


Uncertainties in the competition and complementarity of batteries and fuel cells

1. Future trajectories of cost and performance (energy and power density,

durability, charging speed)

of batteries and fuel cells

• Future progress in battery chemistries and production processes

• Scale economies in fuel cell production

2. Future trajectories of cost and performance of producing and delivering

electricity and hydrogen.

(Variable renewables like solar and wind, batteries and other technologies for

energy storage, electolysers to make “green” hydrogen)

3. Operating and purchase costs will also be influenced by:

• The policy environment

• Costs and utilisation rate of the infrastructure (charging / hydrogen refuelling stations)

• The well-to-wheels efficiency of competing pathways


Maritime shipping


International shipping carries three-quarters of the world’s goods

Bulk carriers and container ships dominate in international shipping, together accounting for about 60% of

total energy use in the sub-sector – almost entirely in the form of oil – and CO2 emissions.

Global freight activity, energy consumption and CO2 emissions in international maritime shipping by vessel type and fuel, 2019

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By vesseltype

By fuel

Final energy demand

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By vesseltype

By fuel

CO₂ emissions

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By vesseltype

By fuel

Activity

Trilli

on to

nn

e-k

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Vessel types:

Fuels:


Reducing shipping emissions requires efficiency and alternative fuels

Biofuels and energy efficiency are the main contributors to shipping emission reductions in the Sustainable

Development Scenario in the short term, while hydrogen and ammonia contribute more in the long term.

Global CO2 emissions reductions in shipping in the Sustainable Development Scenario relative

to the Stated Policies Scenario, 2019-70


Ammonia, biofuels, and hydrogen replace oil in maritime shipping

Emissions from international shipping fall by more than four-fifths between 2019 and 2070 in the

Sustainable Development Scenario, mainly due to switching to biofuels and hydrogen-based fuels.

Global energy consumption and CO2 emissions in international shipping in the Sustainable Development Scenario, 2019-70

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Biofuels

Oil

CO₂ emissions


All these alternative low-carbon fuels and powertrains are expensive

The high cost of storing hydrogen makes it less economical than ammonia. The economics and technical

performance of electric vessels need to improve to become a competitive technology for long-distance shipping.

Total cost of ownership of hydrogen, ammonia and electric vessels by ship type, 2030

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VLSFO FChydrogen

ICEammonia

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ICEammonia

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ICEammonia

Electric

Tanker Container ship Bulk carrier

US

D/k

m

Base vessel ICE / Fuel cell Storage

Infrastructure H2 / NH3 / electricity Battery

Fossil fuel Carbon price (USD 100/t CO2)


Aviation


Aviation activity is set to rebound by the mid-2020s

Despite strong policy measures, including taxes that reduce overall demand, air passenger traffic increases

by about 350% through to 2070 in the Sustainable Development Scenario.

Passenger aviation activity by region in the Sustainable Development Scenario, 2019-70

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on r

pk

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Latin America and Caribbean

Middle East

Europe

North America

Asia and Pacific

STEPS


Long-term efficiency and fuel opportunities depend on distance

Technology potential for CO2 emissions reduction declines as distances increase

Flights

Fuel

Orange: li-S battery (800 Wh/kg, pack level)

Blue: ASSB battery (400 Wh/kg, pack level)

Full electrification

Hybrid electric

Advanced aircraft and engines, SAF

Example efficiency opportunities

in operations and technology

Current generation• Single engine or electric taxiing

• Cabin weight reduction

• Congestion management

• Optimised departures / approaches

• Reduced cruise inefficiency

• Increased engine / aero maintenance

• Increased use of composites

Next gen• Ultra-high bypass ratio

• Double-bubble

• Open rotor

Disruptive (likely 2040 at earliest)• Hybrid-electric aircraft

(Boundary layer ingestion)

• Blended wing-body aircraft

• Full electric aircraft

• Hydrogen jet engine aircraft

• H2 fuel cell aircraft


Sustainable Aviation Fuels are critical to reducing aviation emissions

Rigorous policies to promote the development and adoption of sustainable aviation fuels play the leading role

in reducing the climate impacts of aviation in the Sustainable Development Scenario.

Global aviation fuel consumption in the Sustainable Development Scenario

and total fuel use in the Stated Policies Scenario, 2019-70

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Mto

e/y

r

Synthetic fuels

Biofuels

Fossil jet kerosene

STEPS


Strong policies will be needed to reduce aviation emissions

Rigorous polices that promote sustainable aviation fuels, efficiency and shifts to alternative

transport modes reduce emissions substantially in the Sustainable Development Scenario.

Global CO2 emissions in aviation by abatement measure (left) and technology readiness level (right) in the

Sustainable Development Scenario relative to the Stated Policies Scenario


Policies will be needed to incentivise alternatives to fossil-derived jet fuel

With a carbon price of USD 150/tonne, sustainable aviation fuels begin to compete with oil-based jet kerosene,

though policy support will need to account for the volatility and uncertainty of future feedstock costs and oil prices.

Levelised production costs of sustainable aviation fuels in 2050

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$50/bbl crude

HEFA BTL BTL w CCUS Synthetic fuels from

biogenic CO₂ and

electrolysis

Synthetic fuels from

DAC CO₂ and

electrolysis

Fossil jet kerosene

USD

/L

CAPEX OPEX Fossil fuel cost

Biofuels feedstock cost - low Biofuel feedstock cost - high Electricity cost - low

Electricity cost - high CO₂ feedstock CO₂ price impact USD 150/tCO₂

Energy Technology Perspectives 2020 · 2020. 11. 16. · Commentary: As the Covid-19 crisis hammers...

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Transcript of Energy Technology Perspectives 2020 · 2020. 11. 16. · Commentary: As the Covid-19 crisis hammers...