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PUSH!A F u t u r i s t ’ s G u i d e t o A n t i c i p a t i n g & L e a d i n g C h a n g e
The Falling is Sky
Cecily SommersFounder & President
The Push Institute
www.pushthefuture.org
© Cecily Sommers, 2010
PURPOSE POTENTIALS
P R O P R I E TA RY A DVA N TAG E
P R O P R I E TA RY A DVA N TAG E
© Cecily Sommers, 2010
Q: Why i s i t t ha t , even when we Know be t te r, we don ’ t Do be t te r
A: We have to learn how to New better!
© Cecily Sommers, 2010
A Futurist’s Guide
Problem Solving• KNOW:
– Study structural and systemic factors– Define issue in those terms– Determine your Best Question
• NEW:– Explore– Invent
• DO:– Execute– 5% Factor
© Cecily Sommers, 2010
Washington University’s McDermott Memory & Cognition Lab, January 2007.
The Permanent Present
Learning, Memory
Senses
Left Hemisphere
Language
Right Hemisphere
Imagery
Motivation & Emotion
Autonomic System: Pain, Arousal
D
DD
© Cecily Sommers, 2010
Forward March!L: KnowR: NewL: Do
The Antidote
© Cecily Sommers, 2010
Know
technologytechnology
resourcesresources
populationpopulation
law marketsgovernance
© Cecily Sommers, 2010
◦ Earth
◦ Ocean
◦ Space
◦ Climate
◦ Energy
◦ Water
◦ Land
◦ Food
◦ Sun
◦ Animals
◦ Habitat
◦ Minerals
◦ Forest
ResourcesFour Forces
Click icon to add picture
© Cecily Sommers, 2010
law
resourcesresources
markets
food energy water
ISSUES
TRENDS
INTEGRATION
© Cecily Sommers, 2010
◦ Genetics
◦ Robotics
◦ Information
◦ Nanotechnology
◦ Health care
◦ Education
◦ Collaboration
◦ Virtual reality
◦ Games
◦ Telephony
◦ Manufacturing
◦ Infrastructure
TechnologyFour Forces
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© Cecily Sommers, 2010
law markets
health energy
communications
technologytechnology
roboticsinfrastructur
e
© Cecily Sommers, 2010
◦ 6.1 B in 2000
◦ 9B in 2050
◦ Developing ++
◦ Industrial ---
◦ Immigration
◦ Multi-cultural
◦ Multi-lingual
◦ Nationalism
◦ Conflict
◦ Capital formation
DemographicsFour Forces
© Cecily Sommers, 2010
Div ide
© Cecily Sommers, 2010
law markets
migrati
onlabor
youth
population
mortalitymulti-ethnic
© Cecily Sommers, 2010
◦ Tribalism
◦ Market drivers
◦ Values
◦ Interests
◦ Beliefs
◦ Onlinecommunities
◦ Personalization
◦ Polarization
GovernanceFour Forces
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© Cecily Sommers, 2010
CONTENT
C O N V E R S A T I O N
© Cecily Sommers, 2010
A Shift ing TideThe Washington Consensus1. Fiscal Discipline2. Restructuring Public/Social3. Expenditure Priorities4. Tax Reform5. Liberalizing Interest Rates
Competitive Exchange Rates6. Trade Liberalization7. Liberalization of Inward
ForeignDirect Investment
8. Privatization9. Deregulation10. Property Rights
The Beijing Consensus1. Innovation
– In order to outpace the “friction losses of reform,” government must actively innovate in order to address the challenges introduced by the changing economic and social environment (Ramo, 2004: 12).
2. Dynamic Goals– Instead, the BJC suggests an
increased focus on measures such as quality-of-life and individual equity, areas that China has strongly focused its attention
3. Self-Determination– Countries can plan their own
development without having to accept the unfavorable terms of the Washington Consensus”
NowNewNext
The fast and easy answer? - All media will be social, layered (virtual + physical), and just-in-time (real-time, place-, person-, and situation-specific).
© Cecily Sommers, 2010
The Future of Media ( is socia l & dig i ta l )
• Strategy– Fluid business model– Create something fabulous and
authentic– Dimensionalize from there
© Cecily Sommers, 2010
New
ZONE OF DISCOVERY
◦ Business need◦ Futures research◦ Brand experience◦ New technologies◦ Scenario
development◦ Outside experts◦ Experiential
exploration◦ “Like That”◦ “Fill the Box”◦ Having it all◦ “Duh!,” “Love it!”,
High Risk/Reward◦ Chunking it down◦ First Movable Piece◦ Deliverables,
resource requests, Q-2-Q
© Cecily Sommers, 2010
• “Like That!”• Play• Time out
Pour & Stir
© Cecily Sommers, 2010
Marching Forward
• Best Questions• Pour & Stir• Best Practices
Know Better, New Better, Do Better
© Cecily Sommers, 2010
Do
“The to plant
a tree was ago.”best time20 years
Chinese Proverb
PURPOSE POTENTIALS
P R O P R I E TA RY A DVA N TAG E
P R O P R I E TA RY A DVA N TAG E
© Cecily Sommers, 2010
THE NEW I.P.
Duh!
Love it!OMG!
© Cecily Sommers, 2010
INNOVATION PORTFOLIO
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 (2) Q2 (2) Q3 (2) Q4 (2)
Duh! Love it! High Risk/Reward
© Cecily Sommers, 2010
C L I E N T S
Assump t ions , Ou tcomes , Resou rces
• 10 Years• 5 years• 2 years• 1 year• 6 months• 3 months…
Plan in Reverse
© Cecily Sommers, 2010
= ROI3
• Resilience• Relevance• Revenue
Know Better, New Better, Do Better
© Cecily Sommers, 2010
s T A
M P O U
T S H O R T
S I G H T E D N E S S
© Cecily Sommers, 2010
The Wisdom Principle
God grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change;
courage to change the things I can;
and wisdom to know the difference.
The Serenity Prayer
What’s yours?dream
© Cecily Sommers, 2010
© Cecily Sommers, 2010
THANK YOUTHANK YOU
CECILY SOMMERS
website www.pushthefuture.org
emailcsommers@pushthefuture.org
phone 612.374.3191
twitter cecilysommers