What Smartphones Can Teach Futurists

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Smartphones for futurists What Smartphones Teach Us About the Radical Future of Technology, Business, & Society Principal, Delta Wisdom Chair, London Futurists David Wood @dw2

description

Presented by David Wood The smartphone industry has seen both remarkable successes and remarkable failures over the last two decades. Developments have frequently confounded the predictions of apparent expert observers. What does this rich history have to teach futurists, technology enthusiasts, and activists for other forms of technology adoption and social improvement?

Transcript of What Smartphones Can Teach Futurists

Page 1: What Smartphones Can Teach Futurists

Smartphones for futurists

What Smartphones Teach Us About the Radical Future of Technology,

Business, & Society

Principal, Delta Wisdom Chair, London Futurists

David Wood @dw2

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Agriculture

Education

Healthcare

Retail

Media

Navigation What’s next?

What lay behind this remarkable success story?

What lessons might be applied more broadly?

http://smartphonesandbeyond.com/

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20 tech breakthrough areas by 2025?

Big Data and the Internet of Things: many fewer secrets

Brain scanning: consciousness &

creativity decoded

Mind enhancing drugs (or hardware

stimulation, e.g. tDCS)

Cryptocurrencies: decentralised

consensus systems

Nanomaterials with super-strength &

resilience

3D fabrication, with Atomically

Precise Manufacturing

Ubiquitous solar energy: major

reduction of oil usage

Wearable computers, Augmented Reality,

remote virtual avatars

Rejuvenation biotech: Stem cell therapies,

synthetic organs

Cognitive computing in healthcare: Most doctors redeployed

Automated robot workers:

nurses, soldiers…

Driverless cars, drones: much safer, greener transport

Credible cryonics: mass market suspensions

Virtual companions more compelling than

real ones

Geoengineering E.g. massive carbon

removal

Quantum computing: Moore’s Law -> Rose’s Law

Rational management of decisions

and resources

Synthetic meat: abolition of animal

suffering

Synthetic biology: reprogramming DNA,

new life forms

Sanitation & nutrition: Clean water, cities,

vaccinations…

http://anticipating2025.com/book/

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First Nokia “mobile phone” Nokia Mobira Senator (1982) Weighed about 21 pounds Designed for use in or near cars

1980s McKinsey forecast for AT&T 0.9 million mobile US subscribers by 2000

Actual figure: 109 million Worldwide 1 billion by 2002, 2B by 2005, 7B by 2012...

Hard to predict the effects of sustained tech growth! Devices increasingly numerous, lighter, and more useful

http://www.talktalk.co.uk/mobile/galleries/view/mobile/retro/browse/1 www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/02/22/AR2008022202283_2.html

Predictions of mobile phones

Positive

feedback

cycle

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Communicator_(Star_Trek)

23rd century

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Vision: 1998

7 years to profitability

8 years to 100M devices

+18 months to 200M devices

+36 months to 500M devices

Positive

feedback

cycle

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What Smartphones Teach Us About the Radical Future of Technology, Business, & Society

1. Disruptive tech can take a long time in gestation – Even though it may eventually seem to blossom quickly

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The (slow) emergence of tablets

http://joyreactor.com/post/300138

Bill Gates introduces Tablet PC. No one cares.

Steve Jobs introduces the iPad. The world pisses itself like an

excited dog.

Steve Ballmer introduces Surface. People accuse Microsoft of

stealing the idea from Apple.

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27 January, 2010 “8 Things That Suck About the iPad”

http://gizmodo.com/5458382/8-things-that-suck-about-the-ipad

1. Big, Ugly Bezel 2. No Multitasking 3. No Cameras 4. Touch Keyboard 5. No HDMI Out 6. The Name “iPad” 7. No Flash 8. Adapters, Adapters, Adapters

(“…You need an adapter for USB for god’s sake”) 9. It’s Not Widescreen 10. Doesn’t Support T-Mobile 3G

(“it uses microSIMs that literally no one else uses”) 11. A Closed App Ecosystem.

http://dw2blog.com/2010/01/28/the-ipad-more-for-less/

The (slow) emergence of tablets

“iFail”

“Not game-changing like the iPhone was” – Robert Scoble

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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ipad#Model_comparison http://thenextweb.com/apple/2012/10/02/rare-full-recording-of-1983-steve-jobs-speech-reveals-

apple-had-been-working-on-ipad-for-27-years/

iPad roadmap: Incremental delivery towards a vision

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2010 2011 2012 2013

iPad iPad 2 iPad 3rd gen iPad 4th gen iPad Air

2014

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

“Apple’s strategy is really simple. What we want to do is we want to put an incredibly great computer in a book that you can carry around with you and learn how to use in 20 minutes… “And we really want to do it with a radio link in it so you don’t have to hook up to anything and you’re in communication with all of these larger databases and other computers.”

Steve Jobs, 1983,

International Design

Conference, Aspen

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23 October, 2012

“Apple sold their 100 millionth iPad two weeks ago”

“We sold more iPads in the June quarter than any PC maker sold of

their entire line-up”

Market-cap > $620 billion

>4 years to sell 100M iPhones <3 years to sell 100M iPads

www.engadget.com/2012/10/23/apple-ipad-mini-liveblog/ www.forbes.com/sites/benzingainsights/2012/08/21/apple-now-most-valuable-company-in-history/

The (slow) emergence of tablets Apple Now Most Valuable Company in History

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20 opportunities for enormous value?

Big Data and the Internet of Things: many fewer secrets

Brain scanning: consciousness &

creativity decoded

Mind enhancing drugs (or hardware

stimulation, e.g. tDCS)

Cryptocurrencies: decentralised

consensus systems

Nanomaterials with super-strength &

resilience

3D fabrication, with Atomically

Precise Manufacturing

Ubiquitous solar energy: major

reduction of oil usage

Wearable computers, Augmented Reality,

remote virtual avatars

Rejuvenation biotech: Stem cell therapies,

synthetic organs

Cognitive computing in healthcare: Most doctors redeployed

Automated robot workers:

nurses, soldiers…

Driverless cars, drones: much safer, greener transport

Credible cryonics: mass market suspensions

Virtual companions more compelling than

real ones

Geoengineering E.g. massive carbon

removal

Quantum computing: Moore’s Law -> Rose’s Law

Rational management of decisions

and resources

Synthetic meat: abolition of animal

suffering

Synthetic biology: reprogramming DNA,

new life forms

Sanitation & nutrition: Clean water, cities,

vaccinations…

http://anticipating2025.com/book/

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Progress by combination

Smart combination of multiple tech improvements • Cheap digital storage • Low energy screens, pleasant to look at • High-speed “Whisper net” wireless distribution • Customisable (Linux/Android) software platform • Huge catalog of books available to purchase

+ Innovative business model

Improvements in computers: Performance

Applicability (digitisation)

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What Smartphones Teach Us About the Radical Future of Technology, Business, & Society

1. Disruptive tech can take a long time in gestation – Even though it may eventually seem to blossom quickly

2. Disruptive products rely on smart combination – Smart tech, innovative business model, powerful content – Delivering a vision incrementally (roadmaps are important!)

3. There are huge amounts of hard work setting the scene

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Drama in the last five years

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Causes of corporate stumbles

Corporate inertia Loss of vision

Key skills missing

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Nokia’s biggest mistake (?) But if some ultimate cause needed to be named, Ollila says that it would be the problems that Nokia experienced in software know-how. The problem was recognised already in the 1990s. There were plans to fix them, but they were not implemented.

http://www.zdnet.com/nokia-where-it-all-went-wrong-by-the-man-who-made-it-the-worlds-biggest-mobile-company-7000023046/

http://www.hs.fi/talous/a1381973653499

Jorma Ollila, CEO of Nokia 1992-2006, interviewed in October 2013

Large-scale software? Design? Integration? The new new thing??

Knowing-doing gap!

http://dw2blog.com/2010/09/13/accelerating-nokias-renewal/

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Not spotting the change Phone-centric worldview

• Telephony was the most important app

• Phone manufacturers should prioritise meeting the requests of network operators

• Third party apps were a nice “extra”, but didn’t make any fundamental difference

• Most innovation in smartphones came from within the mobile industry, rather than from Silicon Valley

• The US market was a laggard in the adoption of smartphone technology; it was better to invest in Japan, China, or even India, than in the US.

Internet-centric worldview

• The Internet (and particularly the web browser) was now the most important application

• Phone manufacturers should prioritise meeting the requests of Silicon Valley entrepreneurs

• Third party apps – and, more generally, openness to external innovators – could bring fundamental new value

• The US market would dramatically influence the way new smartphone technology was adopted around the world.

Not being able to act on spotting the change

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Causes of corporate stumbles

Corporate inertia

Technical debt

Loss of vision

Ecosystem failure

Key skills missing

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African proverb: Travelling

If you want to go fast, go alone;

If you want to go far, go together

Products need speed

Platforms enable long-distance travel

2014

2019

Positive

feedback

cycle

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Positive feedback cycles

Design, Manufacturing

Computers

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Positive feedback cycles

Software tools (debuggers, compilers…)

Software

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Positive feedback cycles

Education

Technology

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Positive feedback cycles

Education

Technology

People Networks

=> Technology is likely to improve, faster and faster

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Positive feedback cycles

Developers

Technology Platform

Consumers Business Partners

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Leading in a world of disruptions • Platform leadership

A. Nurturing insight into technology trends

B. Flexible, future-proof, debt-free architecture

C. Interfaces that enable positive feedback cycles

• Market leadership D. Business model innovation

E. Developer motivation

F. User motivation

• Execution leadership G. Continuous integration

H. Enterprise-scale agility

I. Lean processes (focus)

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Page 27 Building a winning alliance, despite conflicts of interest

Mobile phones Mobile

networks

Positive

feedback

cycle

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Page 28 Building a winning alliance, despite conflicts of interest

Smartphones Smart

networks

Developers

It helps to have an insanely great product!

It helps to have powerful allies!

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What Smartphones Teach Us About the Radical Future of Technology, Business, & Society

1. Disruptive tech can take a long time in gestation – Even though it may eventually seem to blossom quickly

2. Disruptive products rely on smart combination – Smart tech, innovative business model, powerful content – Delivering a vision incrementally (roadmaps are important!)

3. There are huge amounts of hard work setting the scene – Platform skills, Marketing skills, Execution skills – Patient investors; the right top management (no knowing-doing gap)

4. Don’t neglect culture engineering – User expectations, successful memes, DXE, ‘political’ alliances…

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Obstacles to new technologies! 1. Underlying core technology may be too hard

E.g. nuclear fusion, links between genetics & disease, battery lifetime…

2. Applications need to be designed and developed

Real benefits; Acceptable usability; Acceptable price: Cross the chasm

3. Network infrastructure & business environment may resist change

E.g. car battery charging stations, application stores: “the value chain”

4. Legal framework may oppose change

E.g. government legislation, biased subsidies

5. Prevailing public mindsets may resist new technology

E.g. “Soul-less little devil”, “Decay is natural”, “Don’t play God”

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http://smartphonesandbeyond.com/

For more info

Available summer

2014