Digital Summit A Futurists Guide To Anticipating & Leading Change
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Presentation made by Cecily Sommers at the Digital Summit, in Dallas, February 10, 2010, to marketers who're trying to navigate a quickly changing and challenging landscape.Note: these are slides (and video) only, sans narration. An overview of the presentation structure is available in the form of a mindmap here: mindmeister.com/41903987/digital-summit-push-a-futurist-s-guide-to-anticipating-and-leading-changeIn her presentation, "PUSH: A Futurist's Guide to Anticipating and Leading Change," Cecily Sommers helps people make sense of a world gone flat, fast, and fickle. With tremendous clarity, Sommers shows how the social, economic, and environmental crises of our time spring from just four constant and predictable forces. Understand how they work together to drive change, she says, and you can stake out a territory that is yours to invent and own — for the long-term."PUSH: A Futurist's Guide to Anticipating and Leading Change" outlines what you need to be your own futurist. It is a media-rich presentation that takes the audience on a guided tour of the future, wrapped around four main ideas:1. How the brain, business, and government are wired for the "Permanent Present" and resist change2. Four constant and predictable forces shaping the future3. Three dramatic disruptions on the horizon that should be a part of every strategic conversation4. How to manage an innovation portfolio that plans on the far and future, while delivering on the near and nowOffering new tools and models for a new world, this presentation is a perfect fit for discussions on strategy and innovation in any discipline. Tailored for the interests and objectives of each group, "PUSH: A Futurist's Guide to Anticipating and Leading Change" is a refreshingly provocative and practical view of the future for a wide range of audiences.
Transcript of Digital Summit A Futurists Guide To Anticipating & Leading Change
Cecily
http://www.christofflab.ca/research/Neurological basis of daydreaming
Cecily
Affordable 3D printershttp://www.makerbot.com/
PUSH!A F u t u r i s t ’ s G u i d e t o A n t i c i p a t i n g & L e a d i n g C h a n g e
The Falling is Sky
Cecily SommersFounder & President
The Push Institute
www.pushthefuture.org
© Cecily Sommers, 2010
PURPOSE POTENTIALS
P R O P R I E TA RY A DVA N TAG E
P R O P R I E TA RY A DVA N TAG E
© Cecily Sommers, 2010
Q: Why i s i t t ha t , even when we Know be t te r, we don ’ t Do be t te r
A: We have to learn how to New better!
© Cecily Sommers, 2010
A Futurist’s Guide
Problem Solving• KNOW:
– Study structural and systemic factors– Define issue in those terms– Determine your Best Question
• NEW:– Explore– Invent
• DO:– Execute– 5% Factor
© Cecily Sommers, 2010
Washington University’s McDermott Memory & Cognition Lab, January 2007.
The Permanent Present
Learning, Memory
Senses
Left Hemisphere
Language
Right Hemisphere
Imagery
Motivation & Emotion
Autonomic System: Pain, Arousal
D
DD
© Cecily Sommers, 2010
Forward March!L: KnowR: NewL: Do
The Antidote
© Cecily Sommers, 2010
Know
technologytechnology
resourcesresources
populationpopulation
law marketsgovernance
© Cecily Sommers, 2010
◦ Earth
◦ Ocean
◦ Space
◦ Climate
◦ Energy
◦ Water
◦ Land
◦ Food
◦ Sun
◦ Animals
◦ Habitat
◦ Minerals
◦ Forest
ResourcesFour Forces
Click icon to add picture
© Cecily Sommers, 2010
law
resourcesresources
markets
food energy water
ISSUES
TRENDS
INTEGRATION
© Cecily Sommers, 2010
◦ Genetics
◦ Robotics
◦ Information
◦ Nanotechnology
◦ Health care
◦ Education
◦ Collaboration
◦ Virtual reality
◦ Games
◦ Telephony
◦ Manufacturing
◦ Infrastructure
TechnologyFour Forces
Click icon to add picture
© Cecily Sommers, 2010
law markets
health energy
communications
technologytechnology
roboticsinfrastructur
e
© Cecily Sommers, 2010
◦ 6.1 B in 2000
◦ 9B in 2050
◦ Developing ++
◦ Industrial ---
◦ Immigration
◦ Multi-cultural
◦ Multi-lingual
◦ Nationalism
◦ Conflict
◦ Capital formation
DemographicsFour Forces
© Cecily Sommers, 2010
Div ide
© Cecily Sommers, 2010
law markets
migrati
onlabor
youth
population
mortalitymulti-ethnic
© Cecily Sommers, 2010
◦ Tribalism
◦ Market drivers
◦ Values
◦ Interests
◦ Beliefs
◦ Onlinecommunities
◦ Personalization
◦ Polarization
GovernanceFour Forces
Click icon to add picture
© Cecily Sommers, 2010
CONTENT
C O N V E R S A T I O N
© Cecily Sommers, 2010
A Shift ing TideThe Washington Consensus1. Fiscal Discipline2. Restructuring Public/Social3. Expenditure Priorities4. Tax Reform5. Liberalizing Interest Rates
Competitive Exchange Rates6. Trade Liberalization7. Liberalization of Inward
ForeignDirect Investment
8. Privatization9. Deregulation10. Property Rights
The Beijing Consensus1. Innovation
– In order to outpace the “friction losses of reform,” government must actively innovate in order to address the challenges introduced by the changing economic and social environment (Ramo, 2004: 12).
2. Dynamic Goals– Instead, the BJC suggests an
increased focus on measures such as quality-of-life and individual equity, areas that China has strongly focused its attention
3. Self-Determination– Countries can plan their own
development without having to accept the unfavorable terms of the Washington Consensus”
NowNewNext
The fast and easy answer? - All media will be social, layered (virtual + physical), and just-in-time (real-time, place-, person-, and situation-specific).
© Cecily Sommers, 2010
The Future of Media ( is socia l & dig i ta l )
• Strategy– Fluid business model– Create something fabulous and
authentic– Dimensionalize from there
© Cecily Sommers, 2010
New
ZONE OF DISCOVERY
◦ Business need◦ Futures research◦ Brand experience◦ New technologies◦ Scenario
development◦ Outside experts◦ Experiential
exploration◦ “Like That”◦ “Fill the Box”◦ Having it all◦ “Duh!,” “Love it!”,
High Risk/Reward◦ Chunking it down◦ First Movable Piece◦ Deliverables,
resource requests, Q-2-Q
© Cecily Sommers, 2010
• “Like That!”• Play• Time out
Pour & Stir
© Cecily Sommers, 2010
Marching Forward
• Best Questions• Pour & Stir• Best Practices
Know Better, New Better, Do Better
© Cecily Sommers, 2010
Do
“The to plant
a tree was ago.”best time20 years
Chinese Proverb
PURPOSE POTENTIALS
P R O P R I E TA RY A DVA N TAG E
P R O P R I E TA RY A DVA N TAG E
© Cecily Sommers, 2010
THE NEW I.P.
Duh!
Love it!OMG!
© Cecily Sommers, 2010
INNOVATION PORTFOLIO
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 (2) Q2 (2) Q3 (2) Q4 (2)
Duh! Love it! High Risk/Reward
© Cecily Sommers, 2010
C L I E N T S
Assump t ions , Ou tcomes , Resou rces
• 10 Years• 5 years• 2 years• 1 year• 6 months• 3 months…
Plan in Reverse
© Cecily Sommers, 2010
= ROI3
• Resilience• Relevance• Revenue
Know Better, New Better, Do Better
© Cecily Sommers, 2010
s T A
M P O U
T S H O R T
S I G H T E D N E S S
© Cecily Sommers, 2010
The Wisdom Principle
God grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change;
courage to change the things I can;
and wisdom to know the difference.
The Serenity Prayer
What’s yours?dream
© Cecily Sommers, 2010
© Cecily Sommers, 2010
THANK YOUTHANK YOU
CECILY SOMMERS
website www.pushthefuture.org
phone 612.374.3191
twitter cecilysommers
