Countering Violent Extremism: How Can Behavior Analysis Help? · 4/15/13 3 Boston Marathon Bombings...

CounteringViolentExtremism:HowCanBehaviorAnalysisHelp?

SarahCasellaJones,Ph.D.,BCBA-D,LBATheChicagoSchoolforProfessionalPsychology– Washington,D.C.Campus

VirginiaAssociationforBehaviorAnalysisConference2017Richmond,VA

DataScienceProcess

RawData

Collected

DataareProcessed

CleanDataset

DataProduct

ExploratoryData

Analysis

Models&Algorithms

CommunicateVisualizeReport

MakeDecision

RealWorldEvents

Whatdataneedstoberecorded/collected?

-email-webpages-surveys-medicalrecords

HumanobservationsBiologyFinanceInternetMedicineSports

DataScienceProcess

RawData

Collected

DataareProcessed

CleanDataset

DataProduct

ExploratoryData

Analysis

Models&Algorithms

MakeDecision

RealWorldEvents

“Aspecificsignatureofacrimethatisoftenprevalentastheoffender(s)progressinthecriminalprocess”(Douglas&Munn,1992)

“UniformedCrimeReport:Crimescategorizedonthebasisoftheirseriousness,frequencyofoccurrence,pervasivenessinallgeographicareasofthecountry,andlikelihoodofbeingreported tolawenforcement.”

Burglary

Participants

•Cross-trainedswornofficers•OperationsDivision•3mainshifts:•Day:0700-1900•Night:1900-0700•Power:1500-0300

DataScienceProcess

RawData

Collected

DataareProcessed

CleanDataset

DataProduct

ExploratoryData

Analysis

Models&Algorithms

MakeDecision

RealWorldEvents

Measures• Primary:• MOFormCompletion

• Quality:• CompletenessofMOsection• DiscrepancybetweennarrativeandMOsection

DataScienceProcess

RawData

Collected

DataareProcessed

CleanDataset

DataProduct

ExploratoryData

Analysis

Models&Algorithms

MakeDecision

RealWorldEvents

TaskClarification&PSOGroupFeedback

PSOGroupFeedback+Sgt.GroupFeedbackonReportRejection

DataScienceProcess

RawData

Collected

DataareProcessed

CleanDataset

DataProduct

ExploratoryData

Analysis

Models&Algorithms

MakeDecision

RealWorldEvents

0123456789

101112131415

Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday

Day Occurred

Copper Thefts-04/20/2011-12-06/2011Common Day

0123456789

101112131415

000-300 300-600 600-900 900-1200 1200-1500 1500-1800 1800-2100 2100-000

Hour Occurred

Copper Thefts-04/20/2011-12-06/2011Common Time

000-300 600-900 1200-1500 1800-2100

HourOccurred

Copper: Common Days & Times

Monday-Times

Tuesday-Times

Wednesday-Times

Collect&AnalyzeData

Date Timeline Event DifferenceBetweenEventsLocation Country Type Deaths Injuries6/1/09 1 LittleRockRecrutingShoting 0 LittleRock,AR USA Shooting 1 111/9/09 2 Ft.HoodAttack 161 Killeen,TX USA Shooting 13 334/15/13 3 BostonMarathonBombings 1253 Boston,MA USA Bombing 3 1839/16/13 4 NavyYardShooting 154 Washington,DC USA Shooting 13 810/23/14 5 NYSubwayAttack-Hatchet 402 NYCity,NY USA HandWeapon 0 511/13/15 6 SeriesofComplexAttacks 386 Paris,France France Complex 137 36812/2/15 7 SanBernardinoCoupleAttacks 19 SanBernandino,CA USA Shooting 14 221/7/16 8 ParisPolicestationattack 36 Paris,France France HandWeapon 1 03/25/16 9 BelgiumAirport&Metroattaks 78 Belgium Belgium Bombing 35 3406/12/16 10 PulseNightclubShooting 79 Orlando,FL USA Shooting 49 536/28/16 11 AtaturkAirportAttack 16 Ataturk,Turkey Turkey Complex 45 2307/14/16 12 Truckdrivenintocrowd 16 Nice,France France Vehicle 86 43411/28/16 13 OhioStateAttack 137 Columbus,OH USA Vehicle 0 1112/19/16 14 BerlinChristmasMarketAttack 21 Berlin,Germany German Vehicle 12 56

Shooting Bombing HandWeapon Complex Vehicle

fEvents

AttackType

CategoriesofEventTypes

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

fDaysB

etweenEven

Events

DifferenceinDays

BehaviorallyInfusedDataScience

• Defensive:• HelpanalystswithpossiblebehavioralindicatorsforIndicators&Warnings/ModusOperanditoanevent

• Whatdidtheenvironmentlooklike?(Characteristicsrelatedtoevent)

• Havesimilaritiesbeenseeninthepast?(Behavioral?)• Whendiditoccur?(Timeseriesanalysis)• Wherediditoccur?(Spatialanalysis)

• Offensive:• Countermeasures:

• Anythingthateffectivelynegatesorreducesanadversary’sabilitytoexploitourvulnerabilities.

QUESTIONSorCOMMENTS?

SARAHCASELLAJONES,PHD,BCBA-D,LBAAdjunctProfessorSARAHJONES@THECHICAGOSCHOOL.EDU

Countering Violent Extremism: How Can Behavior Analysis Help? · 4/15/13 3 Boston Marathon Bombings...

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Transcript of Countering Violent Extremism: How Can Behavior Analysis Help? · 4/15/13 3 Boston Marathon Bombings...

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