Conflict Analysis Conflict Analysis

Farrokh Alemi, Ph.D.Farrokh Alemi, Ph.D.

Monday, February 09, 2004Monday, February 09, 2004

ObjectivesObjectives

Turn conflict into win-win situationsTurn conflict into win-win situations Learn how to analyze conflictLearn how to analyze conflict Learn how to use the analysis for Learn how to use the analysis for

better insights into the conflictbetter insights into the conflict

Not just model building & formulas but also a process

Who Is the Decision Maker?Who Is the Decision Maker?

Several constituenciesSeveral constituencies– e.g. department heads meeting to e.g. department heads meeting to

resolve conflict on budgetresolve conflict on budget Two peopleTwo people

– e.g. negotiations between a clinician e.g. negotiations between a clinician and a manager at an HMOand a manager at an HMO

On personOn person– Role playing of an objective outsiderRole playing of an objective outsider

Analyst meets with eachparty one on one

PremisesPremises People have cognitive biases People have cognitive biases When two parties negotiate some conflict When two parties negotiate some conflict

is due to miscommunications is due to miscommunications A conflict is easier to grasp if it is broken A conflict is easier to grasp if it is broken

into components into components Individuals can specify their values and Individuals can specify their values and

prioritize them prioritize them The analyst can provide reduce conflict The analyst can provide reduce conflict

due to miscommunication, provide insight due to miscommunication, provide insight into the thinking of each party and identify into the thinking of each party and identify solutions overlooked by both parties  solutions overlooked by both parties 

A Conflict Analyzed Is A Conflict Analyzed Is a Conflict Understooda Conflict Understood

Prevent escalation of conflictPrevent escalation of conflict

Analysis Forces Analysis Forces Rationality into Rationality into

ConflictConflict

Increase self insightIncrease self insight

Steps in Analysis of ConflictSteps in Analysis of ConflictStep Phase Action1 Understand the

problem

Hold informal interviews with people informed about the conflict.

2 Identify constituencies and their spokespeople.

3 Analyze assumptions.

4 Structure the problem Perform an in-depth interview with one or more objective outsiders.

5 In separate sessions with each constituency, identify issues, and levels of resolution.

6 Assess importance of issues & value of resolution levels

7 Explore the solution Form and score treaties

8 Analyze the treaties

9 Develop a strategy of negotiation

10 Present results to all constituents.

1. Understand the problem 1. Understand the problem

Identifying constituenciesIdentifying constituencies– Not just vocal groupsNot just vocal groups– RepresentationRepresentation

Identifying spokespeopleIdentifying spokespeople– Maybe role playingMaybe role playing

Identifying assumptionsIdentifying assumptions Get the catchwordsGet the catchwords

1. Understand the problem 1. Understand the problem

Identifying constituenciesIdentifying constituencies– Not just vocal groupsNot just vocal groups– RepresentationRepresentation

Identifying spokespeopleIdentifying spokespeople– Maybe role playingMaybe role playing

Identifying assumptionsIdentifying assumptions Get the catchwordsGet the catchwords

1. Understand the problem 1. Understand the problem

Identifying constituenciesIdentifying constituencies– Not just vocal groupsNot just vocal groups– RepresentationRepresentation

Identifying spokespeopleIdentifying spokespeople– Maybe role playingMaybe role playing

Analyzing assumptionsAnalyzing assumptions

Example Assumptions Example Assumptions

2. Structure the Problem 2. Structure the Problem

Identify issuesIdentify issues– What do we have control over that can be What do we have control over that can be

changed?changed? Identify levels of resolutionIdentify levels of resolution

– What is this side’s position on the issue? What is this side’s position on the issue? – What resolutions might it accept? What resolutions might it accept? – What resolutions are totally unacceptable? What resolutions are totally unacceptable? – Why are the levels considered in this way?Why are the levels considered in this way?

2. Structure the Problem 2. Structure the Problem

Identify issuesIdentify issues– What do we have control over that can be What do we have control over that can be

changed?changed? Identify levels of resolutionIdentify levels of resolution

– What is this side’s position on the issue? What is this side’s position on the issue? – What resolutions might it accept? What resolutions might it accept? – What resolutions are totally unacceptable? What resolutions are totally unacceptable? – Why are the levels considered in this way? Why are the levels considered in this way?

Interviews Interviews

Which components of family Which components of family planning should be available to planning should be available to minors and under what conditions. minors and under what conditions.

– Education Education – Counseling Counseling – Services Services

Heart of the ConflictHeart of the Conflict Should values and morals be taught when Should values and morals be taught when

delivering family planning services? delivering family planning services? Should counseling of adolescents start from the Should counseling of adolescents start from the

position that premarital sex among adolescents is position that premarital sex among adolescents is bad? bad?

Which is more important, allowing easy access to Which is more important, allowing easy access to services or having services controlled by services or having services controlled by organizations with what are considered high organizations with what are considered high morals? morals?

What are the optimum technical qualifications of What are the optimum technical qualifications of the personnel? the personnel?

Who, if anybody, should regulate the provision of Who, if anybody, should regulate the provision of family planning services to adolescents? family planning services to adolescents?

Example Issues & Example Issues & ResolutionsResolutions

3. Explore Solutions 3. Explore Solutions

Elicit importance of different issues and Elicit importance of different issues and values of different resolutions on each issuevalues of different resolutions on each issue

Create and score treatiesCreate and score treaties– Treaty: a set of possible resolutions on each issueTreaty: a set of possible resolutions on each issue

Perform optimal analysisPerform optimal analysis– Focus on Pareto optimal treatiesFocus on Pareto optimal treaties– Logroll Logroll

Organize process of negotiationsOrganize process of negotiations Deescalate the conflictDeescalate the conflict

ValueValueModelModel

ss

Value Models ContinuedValue Models Continued

3. Explore Solutions 3. Explore Solutions

Elicit importance of different issues and Elicit importance of different issues and values of different resolutions on each issuevalues of different resolutions on each issue

Create and score treatiesCreate and score treaties– Treaty: a set of possible resolutions on each issueTreaty: a set of possible resolutions on each issue

Perform optimal analysisPerform optimal analysis– Focus on Pareto optimal treatiesFocus on Pareto optimal treaties– Logroll Logroll

Organize process of negotiationsOrganize process of negotiations Deescalate the conflictDeescalate the conflict

Sample TreatySample TreatyA2 Programs stress abstinence.

B2 Require programs to strengthen the family

C2 Adolescent parents must be notified

D2 All providers must have medical qualifications.

E2 Educational institutions will carry out programs.

F2 State governments must regulate programs. TryIt

Scoring of a TreatyScoring of a Treaty

Sample Treaty ScoredSample Treaty ScoredA2 Programs stress abstinence. (.14*30)

B2 Require programs to strengthen the family (.20 *30)

C2 Adolescent parents must be notified (.25* 80)

D2 All providers must have medical qualifications (.11*60)

E2 Educational institutions will carry out programs (.23*60)

F2 State governments must regulate programs (.07*40) Total value = 53.4

Orthogonal Design for TreatiesOrthogonal Design for Treatieswith Two Issueswith Two Issues

Issue A Issue B

Treaty 1 Best Best

Treaty 2 Best Worst

Treaty 3 Best Best

Treaty 4 Best Worst

Treaty 5 Worst Best

Treaty 6 Worst Worst

Treaty 7 Worst Best

Treaty 8 Worst Worst

Orthogonal Design for Treaties Orthogonal Design for Treaties for Three Issuesfor Three Issues

Issue A Issue B Issue C

Treaty 1 Best Best Best

Treaty 2 Best Best Worst

Treaty 3 Best Best Best

Treaty 4 Best Best Worst

Treaty 5 Best Worst Best

Treaty 6 Best Worst Worst

Treaty 7 Best Worst Best

Treaty 8 Best Worst Worst

Treaty 9 Worst Best Best

Treaty 10 Worst Best Worst

Treaty 11 Worst Best Best

Treaty 12 Worst Best Worst

Treaty 13 Worst Worst Best

Treaty 14 Worst Worst Worst

Treaty 15 Worst Worst Best

Treaty 16 Worst Worst Worst

3. Explore Solutions 3. Explore Solutions

Elicit importance of different issues and Elicit importance of different issues and values of different resolutions on each issuevalues of different resolutions on each issue

Create and score treatiesCreate and score treaties– Treaty: a set of possible resolutions on each issueTreaty: a set of possible resolutions on each issue

Perform optimal analysisPerform optimal analysis– Focus on Pareto optimal treatiesFocus on Pareto optimal treaties– Logroll Logroll

Organize process of negotiationsOrganize process of negotiations Deescalate the conflictDeescalate the conflict

Pareto OptimalPareto Optimal

Points inside the plot are different treaties

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0 20 40 60 80

Score for Constituent B

Sco

re f

or

Co

nst

itu

ent

A

Pareto Optimal

Search for Pareto Search for Pareto Optimal TreatiesOptimal Treaties

Use the information to Use the information to improve one constituents improve one constituents

situation without deteriorating situation without deteriorating the otherthe other

Example of Negotiating Every Example of Negotiating Every IssueIssue

Example of LogrollingExample of Logrolling

3. Explore Solutions 3. Explore Solutions

Elicit importance of different issues and Elicit importance of different issues and values of different resolutions on each issuevalues of different resolutions on each issue

Create and score treatiesCreate and score treaties– Treaty: a set of possible resolutions on each issueTreaty: a set of possible resolutions on each issue

Perform optimal analysisPerform optimal analysis– Focus on Pareto optimal treatiesFocus on Pareto optimal treaties– Logroll Logroll

Organize process of negotiationsOrganize process of negotiations Deescalate the conflictDeescalate the conflict

Organize Process of Organize Process of NegotiationNegotiation

De-escalate the conflictDe-escalate the conflict

Prevent the parties from negotiating Prevent the parties from negotiating on the overall treaty until some on the overall treaty until some agreements have been reached agreements have been reached

Discuss issues in a sequence that Discuss issues in a sequence that minimizes frustration minimizes frustration

Divide the conflict into component Divide the conflict into component issues increase the probability of issues increase the probability of finding a few areas of agreement finding a few areas of agreement

SummarySummary