Descriptive Statistics: Part One Farrokh Alemi Ph.D. Kashif Haqqi M.D.
Introduction to Causal Analysis Farrokh Alemi Ph.D.
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Transcript of Introduction to Causal Analysis Farrokh Alemi Ph.D.
![Page 1: Introduction to Causal Analysis Farrokh Alemi Ph.D.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062518/5697bf951a28abf838c9111f/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Introduction to Causal Analysis
Introduction to Causal Analysis
Farrokh Alemi Ph.D.
![Page 2: Introduction to Causal Analysis Farrokh Alemi Ph.D.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062518/5697bf951a28abf838c9111f/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
What is a cause?What is a cause?
Farrokh Alemi Ph.D.
![Page 3: Introduction to Causal Analysis Farrokh Alemi Ph.D.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062518/5697bf951a28abf838c9111f/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
What is a cause?What is a cause?
Farrokh Alemi Ph.D.
for exercise
![Page 4: Introduction to Causal Analysis Farrokh Alemi Ph.D.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062518/5697bf951a28abf838c9111f/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
• “Causes” are misunderstood – Not goals– Not reasons why– Not your motivation
What is a Cause?
![Page 5: Introduction to Causal Analysis Farrokh Alemi Ph.D.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062518/5697bf951a28abf838c9111f/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
• “Causes” are misunderstood – Not goals– Not reasons why– Not your motivation
What is a Cause?
Fitting in clothes one size smaller
![Page 6: Introduction to Causal Analysis Farrokh Alemi Ph.D.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062518/5697bf951a28abf838c9111f/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
• “Causes” are misunderstood – Not goals– Not reasons why– Not your motivation
What is a Cause?
… because I want to be healthy.
![Page 7: Introduction to Causal Analysis Farrokh Alemi Ph.D.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062518/5697bf951a28abf838c9111f/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
• “Causes” are misunderstood – Not goals– Not reasons why– Not your motivation
What is a Cause?
My commitment and will power makes me exercise.
![Page 8: Introduction to Causal Analysis Farrokh Alemi Ph.D.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062518/5697bf951a28abf838c9111f/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
• “Causes” are misunderstood – Not goals– Not reasons why– Not your motivation
What is a Cause?
![Page 9: Introduction to Causal Analysis Farrokh Alemi Ph.D.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062518/5697bf951a28abf838c9111f/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
• “Causes” are misunderstood – Not goals– Not reasons why– Not your motivation
What is a Cause?Root
Cause
Immediate cause
Relapse
Analyze & Understan
d
Change
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• Events– Not physical objects
• Absent before, present now
Cause and Effects Are Events
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My spouse makes me exercise
My spouse reminded me to exercise
Causes are Temporary Events
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All Causes Describe a Mechanism
Root caus
e… Direct
causeEffec
t
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All Causes Describe a Mechanism
Watching a late
show
Sleeping late
Waking up late
No exercise before work
![Page 14: Introduction to Causal Analysis Farrokh Alemi Ph.D.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062518/5697bf951a28abf838c9111f/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
• No sure relationship
The Impact of a Cause Is Not Certain
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• No sure relationship
The Impact of a Cause Is Not Certain
Watching a late
show
Sleeping late
Waking up late
Exercise
before work
![Page 16: Introduction to Causal Analysis Farrokh Alemi Ph.D.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062518/5697bf951a28abf838c9111f/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
• ↑ effect
Causes Increase Likelihood of Effects
Vacation
Exercise
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Causes Precede Effects
Vacation
Exercise
![Page 18: Introduction to Causal Analysis Farrokh Alemi Ph.D.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062518/5697bf951a28abf838c9111f/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Causes Precede Effects
Anticipation of going on vacation
Exercise
![Page 19: Introduction to Causal Analysis Farrokh Alemi Ph.D.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062518/5697bf951a28abf838c9111f/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Effect
Cause
Other cause
s
Everything Is Not a Cause
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Exercise
Bike to
work
Make a bike route
Everything Is Not a Cause
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Exercise
Bike to
work
Everything Is Not a Cause
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• Absent cause– Almost– I could if I wanted to– I would have …– Instead of …
Counterfactual
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• Absent cause– Almost– I could if I wanted to– I would have …– Instead of …
Counterfactual
Got up early
Phone call
No exercise
I got up early and almost did my morning exercise before I got interrupted by a call.
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• Absent cause– Almost– I could if I wanted to– I would have …– Instead of …
Counterfactual
I could have exercised if I had gotten up early.
![Page 25: Introduction to Causal Analysis Farrokh Alemi Ph.D.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062518/5697bf951a28abf838c9111f/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
• Absent cause– Almost– I could if I wanted to– I would have …– Instead of …
Counterfactual
I would have exercised if I were on vacation.
![Page 26: Introduction to Causal Analysis Farrokh Alemi Ph.D.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062518/5697bf951a28abf838c9111f/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
• Absent cause– Almost– I could if I wanted to– I would have …– Instead of …
Counterfactual
Instead of getting up early to exercise I took my time and made a good breakfast.
![Page 27: Introduction to Causal Analysis Farrokh Alemi Ph.D.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062518/5697bf951a28abf838c9111f/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
• Absent cause– Almost– I could if I wanted to– I would have …– Instead of …
Counterfactual
![Page 28: Introduction to Causal Analysis Farrokh Alemi Ph.D.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062518/5697bf951a28abf838c9111f/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
Get a
ball
Invite friends
Play soccer
Get right cloth
es
Causes Working In Concert
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Sell car and
bike to work
Give up space and park at far end of the lot
Exercise
Alternative Causes
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Take Home LessonTake Home Lesson
New Thinking
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Take Home LessonTake Home Lesson
A cause is an event that occurs sometimes
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Take Home LessonTake Home Lesson
Precedes the effect
![Page 33: Introduction to Causal Analysis Farrokh Alemi Ph.D.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062518/5697bf951a28abf838c9111f/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
Take Home LessonTake Home Lesson
Co-occurs frequently with the effect
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Take Home LessonTake Home Lesson
Absent cause, absent effect
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Take Home LessonTake Home Lesson
Directly leads to the effect
![Page 36: Introduction to Causal Analysis Farrokh Alemi Ph.D.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062518/5697bf951a28abf838c9111f/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
Take Home LessonTake Home Lesson
Describes a mechanism
![Page 37: Introduction to Causal Analysis Farrokh Alemi Ph.D.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062518/5697bf951a28abf838c9111f/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
Take Home LessonTake Home Lesson
Can be modified
![Page 38: Introduction to Causal Analysis Farrokh Alemi Ph.D.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062518/5697bf951a28abf838c9111f/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
Take Home LessonTake Home Lesson
Search for Causes
An event that occurs sometimes
Frequently precedes the effect
Describes a mechanism
Can be modified