Climate Forecasting Unit

Melanie Davis, Francisco Doblas-Reyes,Nube Gonzalez-Reviriego, Verónica Torralba Fernandez

EUPORIAS General Assembly, Toulouse, 21st October 2014

RESILIENCE PROTOTYPEStrengthening the European Energy

Network with Climate Services

Climate Forecasting Unit

If I could tell you the

average wind power generation

for the next one to three months,

could you improve your business operations?

Climate Forecasting Unit

1) Energy producers (e.g. EDF, www.edf.com)

Decision: how to adjust resource management strategies based on a foreseen total wind power capacity of several wind farms.

Climate Forecasting Unit

1) Energy producers (e.g. EDF, www.edf.com)

Decision: how to adjust resource management strategies based on a foreseen total wind power capacity of several wind farms.

2) Wind farm operators (e.g. EDP, www.edp.com)

Decision: how to plan for costly maintenance works during optimal wind conditions.

Climate Forecasting Unit

1) Energy producers (e.g. EDF, www.edf.com)

Decision: how to adjust resource management strategies based on a foreseen total wind power capacity of several wind farms.

2) Wind farm operators (e.g. EDP, www.edp.com)

Decision: how to plan for costly maintenance works during optimal wind conditions.

3) Wind farm financer (e.g. Iberdrola, www.iberdrola.com)

Decision: how to optimise the return on investments, based on a foreseen wind power capacity of an individual wind farm.

INDEX: WIND POWER ESTIMATION

0 Climate Prediction Capacity 1

RESILIENCE service

Target

In Europe In USA / Tropics

Current service

CLIMATOLOGY/PROJECTIONS

PREDICTIONS

Climate Forecasting Unit

Climate Forecasting Unit

Climate Forecasting Unit

Climate Forecasting Unit

1) SCIENTIFIC CONTRIBUTION: IC3 (Verónica Torralba)

2) END-USER GUIDANCE: various inputs (EDF, Marex Spectron, Vortex, Endesa, E.ON)

3) INTERFACE DESIGN CONTRIBUTION: External visualisor

4) ENERGY FORECAST FORUM ORGANISATION

If I could tell you the

average wind power generation

for the next one to three months,

could you improve your business operations?

Climate Forecasting Unit

RESILIENCE Applications

Anticipate market changes:

Identify vulnerabilities and risks

Facilitate strategic climate adaptation action

Climate Forecasting Unit

RESILIENCE Benefits

Anticipate market changes:

Ability to make decisions earlier

Avoid subjective decision making

Take calculated precautionary action

Potential cost saving

Climate Forecasting Unit

Climate Forecasting Unit

The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Union Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under the following projects:

CLIM-RUN, www.climrun.eu (GA n° 265192)

EUPORIAS, www.euporias.eu (GA n° 308291)

SPECS, www.specs-fp7.eu (GA n° 308378)

THANK YOUmelanie.davis@ic3.cat