Post on 27-Sep-2020
Site and measurements Jules Results Conclusions
Assessment of the JULES model surface soilmoisture using in situ observations over the
Brazilian North East semiarid region
Marcelo Zeri, Karina Williams, Eleanor M. Blyth, Ana Paula M.A. Cunha, Toby R. Marthews, Garry D. Hayman, Marcelo V.
Galdos
CEMADEN (Brazil), University of Leeds, UK Center for Ecology & Hidrology, UKMetOffice
May 2020
Site and measurements Jules Results Conclusions
Outline
1 Site and measurements
2 Jules
3 ResultsJules evaluationModeled in situ soil moisture data
4 Conclusions
Site and measurements Jules Results Conclusions
Objectives
Compare superficialsoil water fromobservations withJules land surfacemodel
Derive relationshipsbetween model andmeasurements forapplications on:
Generate modeledsoil moisture dataCharacterizelong-term trendsof soil water anddrough events
Site and measurements Jules Results Conclusions
Brazilian Semiarid
Covering 10 states
800,000 km2 (10%Brazilian territory)
23 million inhabitants
Caatinga (uniqueecosystem with greatbiodiversity)
Site and measurements Jules Results Conclusions
Cemaden’s network
Monitoring of rainfalland soil moisture at595 stations (PCDAcqua, 10 and 20cm)
Four depths in 95stations +
Air temperature,relative humidity,wind speed, solarradiation (PCD Agro)
Hourly data viacellular network
”Rural network”
Site and measurements Jules Results Conclusions
Database
360 stations
Data coverage from2015 to 2019
2 months to 4 yearsof data
Physical consistency(other depths andrainfall)
1
1Zeri, Marcelo; Costa, Jose Maria; Urbano, Domingos; Cuartas, Luz Adriana; Ivo, Andre; Marengo, Jose;
Alvala, Regina C. S. (2020), “A soil moisture dataset over the Brazilian semiarid region”, Mendeley Data, v2http://dx.doi.org/10.17632/xrk5rfcpvg.2
Site and measurements Jules Results Conclusions
Jules Land Surface Model
JULES Land Surface Model (the Joint UK Land EnvironmentSimulator)
”Skillful seasonal prediction of key carbon cycle components: NPPand fire risk”
Philip Bett, Karina Williams, Chantelle Burton, Adam Scaife,Andrew Wiltshire, Richard Gilhamhttps://eartharxiv.org/29ve5/
Runs from 1979 to 2016
Overlap with first full year of measurements
Site and measurements Jules Results Conclusions
Original data
Site and measurements Jules Results Conclusions
Outline
1 Site and measurements
2 Jules
3 ResultsJules evaluationModeled in situ soil moisture data
4 Conclusions
Site and measurements Jules Results Conclusions
Index of agreement (d)
Site and measurements Jules Results Conclusions
Jules and stations
Site and measurements Jules Results Conclusions
Jules and stations
Site and measurements Jules Results Conclusions
Index of agreement (d)
Site and measurements Jules Results Conclusions
Correlation coefficient (r)
Site and measurements Jules Results Conclusions
Statistics and soil texture class
Fractions of sand, siltand clay
USDA soilclassification
Site and measurements Jules Results Conclusions
Statistics and soil texture class
Good agreement and correlation between measurements and modelfor different soil texture classes
Index of agreement Correlation coefficient
Site and measurements Jules Results Conclusions
Outline
1 Site and measurements
2 Jules
3 ResultsJules evaluationModeled in situ soil moisture data
4 Conclusions
Site and measurements Jules Results Conclusions
Modeled in situ soil moisture data
Generate 1979-2016soil moisture data
Locations criteria:
Significantcorrelation(p-value)Correlation higherthan 0.6
Site and measurements Jules Results Conclusions
Soil moisture 2000-2016
Site and measurements Jules Results Conclusions
Soil moisture 2000-2016 - Standardized anomaly
Site and measurements Jules Results Conclusions
Standardized anomaly - April 2012
Site and measurements Jules Results Conclusions
Standardized anomaly - April 2013
Site and measurements Jules Results Conclusions
Standardized anomaly - January 2015
Site and measurements Jules Results Conclusions
Conclusions
Good correlation between Jules superficial soil water andmeasurements
Modeling of in situ data from 1979 to 2016
Standardized soil moisture anomaly
Correct identification of drought events
Future steps
Comparison with other metrics (SPI, NDVI)
Integration with other metrics in a combined drought index
Site and measurements Jules Results Conclusions
Obrigado!
2
2Umbuzeiro tree (Spondias tuberosa L.)
Picture: Claudio Rogerio Pontes