Site and measurements Jules Results Conclusions

Assessment of the JULES model surface soilmoisture using in situ observations over the

Brazilian North East semiarid region

Marcelo Zeri, Karina Williams, Eleanor M. Blyth, Ana Paula M.A. Cunha, Toby R. Marthews, Garry D. Hayman, Marcelo V.

Galdos

CEMADEN (Brazil), University of Leeds, UK Center for Ecology & Hidrology, UKMetOffice

May 2020

Site and measurements Jules Results Conclusions

Outline

1 Site and measurements

2 Jules

3 ResultsJules evaluationModeled in situ soil moisture data

4 Conclusions

Site and measurements Jules Results Conclusions

Objectives

Compare superficialsoil water fromobservations withJules land surfacemodel

Derive relationshipsbetween model andmeasurements forapplications on:

Generate modeledsoil moisture dataCharacterizelong-term trendsof soil water anddrough events

Site and measurements Jules Results Conclusions

Brazilian Semiarid

Covering 10 states

800,000 km2 (10%Brazilian territory)

23 million inhabitants

Caatinga (uniqueecosystem with greatbiodiversity)

Site and measurements Jules Results Conclusions

Cemaden’s network

Monitoring of rainfalland soil moisture at595 stations (PCDAcqua, 10 and 20cm)

Four depths in 95stations +

Air temperature,relative humidity,wind speed, solarradiation (PCD Agro)

Hourly data viacellular network

”Rural network”

Site and measurements Jules Results Conclusions

Database

360 stations

Data coverage from2015 to 2019

2 months to 4 yearsof data

Physical consistency(other depths andrainfall)

1

1Zeri, Marcelo; Costa, Jose Maria; Urbano, Domingos; Cuartas, Luz Adriana; Ivo, Andre; Marengo, Jose;

Alvala, Regina C. S. (2020), “A soil moisture dataset over the Brazilian semiarid region”, Mendeley Data, v2http://dx.doi.org/10.17632/xrk5rfcpvg.2

Site and measurements Jules Results Conclusions

Jules Land Surface Model

JULES Land Surface Model (the Joint UK Land EnvironmentSimulator)

”Skillful seasonal prediction of key carbon cycle components: NPPand fire risk”

Philip Bett, Karina Williams, Chantelle Burton, Adam Scaife,Andrew Wiltshire, Richard Gilhamhttps://eartharxiv.org/29ve5/

Runs from 1979 to 2016

Overlap with first full year of measurements

Site and measurements Jules Results Conclusions

Original data

Site and measurements Jules Results Conclusions

Outline

1 Site and measurements

2 Jules

3 ResultsJules evaluationModeled in situ soil moisture data

4 Conclusions

Site and measurements Jules Results Conclusions

Index of agreement (d)

Site and measurements Jules Results Conclusions

Jules and stations

Site and measurements Jules Results Conclusions

Jules and stations

Site and measurements Jules Results Conclusions

Index of agreement (d)

Site and measurements Jules Results Conclusions

Correlation coefficient (r)

Site and measurements Jules Results Conclusions

Statistics and soil texture class

Fractions of sand, siltand clay

USDA soilclassification

Site and measurements Jules Results Conclusions

Statistics and soil texture class

Good agreement and correlation between measurements and modelfor different soil texture classes

Index of agreement Correlation coefficient

Site and measurements Jules Results Conclusions

Outline

1 Site and measurements

2 Jules

3 ResultsJules evaluationModeled in situ soil moisture data

4 Conclusions

Site and measurements Jules Results Conclusions

Modeled in situ soil moisture data

Generate 1979-2016soil moisture data

Locations criteria:

Significantcorrelation(p-value)Correlation higherthan 0.6

Site and measurements Jules Results Conclusions

Soil moisture 2000-2016

Site and measurements Jules Results Conclusions

Soil moisture 2000-2016 - Standardized anomaly

Site and measurements Jules Results Conclusions

Standardized anomaly - April 2012

Site and measurements Jules Results Conclusions

Standardized anomaly - April 2013

Site and measurements Jules Results Conclusions

Standardized anomaly - January 2015

Site and measurements Jules Results Conclusions

Conclusions

Good correlation between Jules superficial soil water andmeasurements

Modeling of in situ data from 1979 to 2016

Standardized soil moisture anomaly

Correct identification of drought events

Future steps

Comparison with other metrics (SPI, NDVI)

Integration with other metrics in a combined drought index

Site and measurements Jules Results Conclusions

Obrigado!

2

2Umbuzeiro tree (Spondias tuberosa L.)

Picture: Claudio Rogerio Pontes