Post on 30-Dec-2015
1
Emergency Management and Risk Analysis for Hazardous Materials Transport
Shashi Nambisan
Professor of Civil Engineering
Dept of Civil & Environmental Engineering
Transportation Research Center
UNLV
Seminar at the
Dept. of Civil, Construction, and Environmental Engineering
Center for Transportation Research & Education
Iowa State University
November 5, 2004
3
Natural Disasters
• Earthquakes
• Fires
• Floods and Dam failures
• Hurricanes / Tornadoes
• Land slides / Mudslides
• Volcanoes
4
Man Made Disasters
• Accidental, Intentional– Chemical releases, spills– Explosions– Radioactive: power plant– Transportation: air,
pipeline, road, rail, water
• Fire
5
Emergency Management Phases
• Preparedness
• Response
• Recovery
• Mitigation
Transportation is always a factor
6
Analyses to Support Emergency Management
• Hazard Analysis
• Risk Assessment
• Vulnerability Assessment
• Criticality Analysis
9
Key Terms
• Susceptibility: How prone is a system to weaknesses
• Vulnerability: The susceptibility to losses due to exposure to hazard
• Reliability: The complement to vulnerability; describes adequate serviceability under the operating conditions encountered at a given time
• Resiliency: The ability to recover to normal or near normal state of operations
10
Risk Assessment
• Risk Assessment =
f (Event, Probability, Consequence)– Probability of event “i”, Pi
– Consequence of events, Ci
– Risk of one event, Ri = Pi * Ci (?)• Other Models (Non-linear, Exponential, … )
– Risk of all events = Ri ?
11
Vulnerability Assessment
• Analysis of a system for weaknesses
• Probability of an attack on the weaknesses
• Factors– Ease of access– Ability and time required to
“harden” the system / element
12
Criticality Considerations
• Impacts on human life
• Environmental impacts
• Economic impacts
• Duration of impact
13
Radioactive Materials Transport
• Nuclear Waste Policy Act (1982) & Amendments
• High Level Waste, Spent Nuclear Fuel
• Routing Issues– Public Safety– Emergency
Preparedness
14
Background
• Nuclear Power / HLRW– Origins
• 76 power plants• 4 DOE facilities
• NWPA, NWPAA• Investigate Yucca Mountain as the Only Potential Site• Designated Yucca Mountain as THE repository site
– Transport Modes:• Highway• Rail• Combination of Both
16
Transport Related Issues
• Risk Analysis / Minimization– Population– Environment– Infrastructure– Emergency Response
17
Population
• Resident• Non-Resident / Visitor
– Resort Corridor– Proximity to I-15 and Union Pacific RR Track– ~100,000 hotel rooms
• Special Populations– Schools– Hospitals, Health Care Facilities– Assisted Living Facilities– Prisons
18
Environmental Issues
• F&F? – Plants & Animals– Habitats– Foraging Patterns– Migration Patterns
• Endangered, Threatened, …
19
Infrastructure• Networks
– Transport– Utility
• Structural Adequacy– Carriage Way (Pavement / Track Structure)– Bridges, Tunnels
• Functional Adequacy– Load– Geometrics (Clearances)
• Impacts: Operations, Life Cycle Costs• System Safety• System Redundancy
20
Emergency Response: Performance Indicators (MOEs)
• Incident assessment time• First responder time• First qualified responder time• Evacuation time• Extent of impact
– Population and classes of population– Area (square miles, number of blocks, towns, cities)– Environment
• Extent of “avoided” impact
21
Risk Assessment
• Scenarios:– Routine Operations– Accident / Incident
• Consequences– Radiological– Non-radiological
• Identify all Events for Each Scenario
• Estimate Pi and Ci; then Ri
Scenario
RoutineAccident / Incident
Radiological
Non-Rad.
22
Risk Assessment
Consequence, C
Scenario
RoutineAccident / Incident
Radiological
Non-Rad.
Probability, P
Scenario
RoutineAccident / Incident
Radiological
Non-Rad.
32
Summary
• Emergency Preparedness
• Risk Assessment
• SNF & HLW Transport – Population– Environment– Infrastructure– Emergency Response
• Communications