© Nuffield Trust 4 July 2012

Future funding scenarios for the NHS and social care in England

Adam RobertsResearch Analyst

www.nuffieldtrust.org.uk/nhs-financial-challenge

© Nuffield Trust

Background

• This presentation:

• Previous trends in health care spending

• Scenarios for health care funding

• Scenarios for social care funding

• Combined affect on other areas of public spending

• Also covered in the report:

• Assumptions

• International comparisons

© Nuffield Trust

History of UK NHS spending

© Nuffield Trust

Three NHS funding scenarios (real terms)

© Nuffield Trust

Three NHS funding scenarios (% of national income)

© Nuffield Trust

Two social care funding scenarios (real-terms)

© Nuffield Trust

Trade-off between NHS and other public service spending given health and social care spending, 2015/16 to 2021/22

© Nuffield Trust

Trade-off between NHS and other public service spending given health and social care spending, 2015/16 to 2021/22

© Nuffield Trust

Trade-off between NHS and other public service spending given health and social care spending, 2015/16 to 2021/22

© Nuffield Trust

Trade-off between NHS and other public service spending given public and social care spending, 2015/16 to 2021/22

© Nuffield Trust

Trade-off between NHS and other public service spending given public and social care spending, 2015/16 to 2021/22

© Nuffield Trust

Trade-off between non-NHS spending and tax increases/welfare cuts given various NHS/social care funding scenarios, 2015/16 to 2021/22

© Nuffield Trust

Trade-off between non-NHS spending and tax increases/welfare cuts given NHS funding levels, 2015/16 to 2021/22

© Nuffield Trust

Conclusions

• From 2010/11 to 2014/15 the NHS faces its tightest budget of last 50 years

• Beyond then, even maintaining share of national income will be tough

• Period of austerity likely to extend well into the next decade

• Only a long-term freeze in other public service budgets/large tax increases would allow NHS funding to grow at historic levels

• Pressures on health and social care likely to rise (see future reports)

• Without unprecedented productivity gains, there is likely to be a rapid growth in the gap between the demand for care and the ability to provide high-quality services

© Nuffield Trust 4 July 2012

www.nuffieldtrust.org.uk

Sign-up for our newsletterwww.nuffieldtrust.org.uk/newsletter

Follow us on Twitter:Twitter.com/NuffieldTrust

© Nuffield Trust

adam.roberts@nuffieldtrust.org.uk