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Transcript of © Nuffield Trust 4 July 2012 Future funding scenarios for the NHS and social care in England Adam...
![Page 1: © Nuffield Trust 4 July 2012 Future funding scenarios for the NHS and social care in England Adam Roberts Research Analyst .](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062500/5697bf861a28abf838c884c0/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
© Nuffield Trust 4 July 2012
Future funding scenarios for the NHS and social care in England
Adam RobertsResearch Analyst
www.nuffieldtrust.org.uk/nhs-financial-challenge
![Page 2: © Nuffield Trust 4 July 2012 Future funding scenarios for the NHS and social care in England Adam Roberts Research Analyst .](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062500/5697bf861a28abf838c884c0/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
© Nuffield Trust
Background
• This presentation:
• Previous trends in health care spending
• Scenarios for health care funding
• Scenarios for social care funding
• Combined affect on other areas of public spending
• Also covered in the report:
• Assumptions
• International comparisons
![Page 3: © Nuffield Trust 4 July 2012 Future funding scenarios for the NHS and social care in England Adam Roberts Research Analyst .](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062500/5697bf861a28abf838c884c0/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
© Nuffield Trust
History of UK NHS spending
![Page 4: © Nuffield Trust 4 July 2012 Future funding scenarios for the NHS and social care in England Adam Roberts Research Analyst .](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062500/5697bf861a28abf838c884c0/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
© Nuffield Trust
Three NHS funding scenarios (real terms)
![Page 5: © Nuffield Trust 4 July 2012 Future funding scenarios for the NHS and social care in England Adam Roberts Research Analyst .](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062500/5697bf861a28abf838c884c0/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
© Nuffield Trust
Three NHS funding scenarios (% of national income)
![Page 6: © Nuffield Trust 4 July 2012 Future funding scenarios for the NHS and social care in England Adam Roberts Research Analyst .](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062500/5697bf861a28abf838c884c0/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
© Nuffield Trust
Two social care funding scenarios (real-terms)
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© Nuffield Trust
Trade-off between NHS and other public service spending given health and social care spending, 2015/16 to 2021/22
![Page 8: © Nuffield Trust 4 July 2012 Future funding scenarios for the NHS and social care in England Adam Roberts Research Analyst .](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062500/5697bf861a28abf838c884c0/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
© Nuffield Trust
Trade-off between NHS and other public service spending given health and social care spending, 2015/16 to 2021/22
![Page 9: © Nuffield Trust 4 July 2012 Future funding scenarios for the NHS and social care in England Adam Roberts Research Analyst .](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062500/5697bf861a28abf838c884c0/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
© Nuffield Trust
Trade-off between NHS and other public service spending given health and social care spending, 2015/16 to 2021/22
![Page 10: © Nuffield Trust 4 July 2012 Future funding scenarios for the NHS and social care in England Adam Roberts Research Analyst .](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062500/5697bf861a28abf838c884c0/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
© Nuffield Trust
Trade-off between NHS and other public service spending given public and social care spending, 2015/16 to 2021/22
![Page 11: © Nuffield Trust 4 July 2012 Future funding scenarios for the NHS and social care in England Adam Roberts Research Analyst .](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062500/5697bf861a28abf838c884c0/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
© Nuffield Trust
Trade-off between NHS and other public service spending given public and social care spending, 2015/16 to 2021/22
![Page 12: © Nuffield Trust 4 July 2012 Future funding scenarios for the NHS and social care in England Adam Roberts Research Analyst .](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062500/5697bf861a28abf838c884c0/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
© Nuffield Trust
Trade-off between non-NHS spending and tax increases/welfare cuts given various NHS/social care funding scenarios, 2015/16 to 2021/22
![Page 13: © Nuffield Trust 4 July 2012 Future funding scenarios for the NHS and social care in England Adam Roberts Research Analyst .](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062500/5697bf861a28abf838c884c0/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
© Nuffield Trust
Trade-off between non-NHS spending and tax increases/welfare cuts given NHS funding levels, 2015/16 to 2021/22
![Page 14: © Nuffield Trust 4 July 2012 Future funding scenarios for the NHS and social care in England Adam Roberts Research Analyst .](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062500/5697bf861a28abf838c884c0/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
© Nuffield Trust
Conclusions
• From 2010/11 to 2014/15 the NHS faces its tightest budget of last 50 years
• Beyond then, even maintaining share of national income will be tough
• Period of austerity likely to extend well into the next decade
• Only a long-term freeze in other public service budgets/large tax increases would allow NHS funding to grow at historic levels
• Pressures on health and social care likely to rise (see future reports)
• Without unprecedented productivity gains, there is likely to be a rapid growth in the gap between the demand for care and the ability to provide high-quality services
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© Nuffield Trust 4 July 2012
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