Xuexi Tie [email protected]
Xu Tang,Fuhai Geng, and Chunsheng Zhao
Shanghai Meteorological BureauAtmospheric Chemistry Division/NCAR Peking University
Understand and Forecast the Impact of Economical Development on Air Quality in Shanghai(MIRAGE – Shanghai)
Motivations:Motivations:
Large Cities are rapidly growing (cluster)Large Cities are rapidly growing (cluster)Effect on air pollutants (regional Effect on air pollutants (regional global) global)Effect on climate (regional Effect on climate (regional global) global)
Shanghai is under rapid development Shanghai is under rapid development
Resi denti al And Non-Resi denti al Bui l di ng Stati st i c
91. 34172. 56
314. 67 342. 06383. 24
434. 32513. 75
593. 14641. 98
702. 82
324. 37
0100200300400500600700800
1980 1990 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Mill
ion
Total Number of Ci vi l Motor Vehi cl es(Mi l l i on)
0. 47 0. 54 0. 58
1. 041. 20
1. 39
1. 74
2. 032. 22
2. 38
0. 68
0. 00
0. 50
1. 00
1. 50
2. 00
2. 50
3. 00
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Auto 500%Building 350%
The impacts on environmentThe impacts on environment High Pollutants around Large Cities High Pollutants around Large Cities
Shanghai
The worst is not over (yet) ! The worst is not over (yet) !
Richter et al, Increase in tropospheric nitrogen over ChinaRichter et al, Increase in tropospheric nitrogen over Chinaobserved from space, Nature, v437, p129-132, 2005observed from space, Nature, v437, p129-132, 2005
Zhao, Tie, Ling, GRL, 2006
What is the future of Ozone ??What is the future of Ozone ??Potential high ozone ?? Potential high ozone ??
Scientific Objectives Scientific Objectives •Understand the current ozone in YRD Understand the current ozone in YRD
•Forecast the future ozone in YRDForecast the future ozone in YRD
Understand the current ozone in YRD Understand the current ozone in YRD
Ozone FormationOzone Formation Precursors (NOx, VOCs, CO, OH)Precursors (NOx, VOCs, CO, OH) Effectors (aerosols, clouds, ..)Effectors (aerosols, clouds, ..) Products (CHProducts (CH22O, HNOO, HNO33, PAN) , PAN) Impacts on Economical Development on OzoneImpacts on Economical Development on Ozone Industrial EmissionsIndustrial Emissions Biogenic EmissionsBiogenic EmissionsImpacts of Aerosols on OzoneImpacts of Aerosols on Ozone
Impacts of Surrounding Areas on OzoneImpacts of Surrounding Areas on Ozone
Impacts of Meteorology on OzoneImpacts of Meteorology on Ozone
Field measurements Field measurements (multi-measurements)(multi-measurements)
(with ACD/NCAR collaborations; MIRAGE-SH)(with ACD/NCAR collaborations; MIRAGE-SH)
(1) Ozone and precursors O3, CO, NOx, Anthropogenic VOCs, Biogenic VOCs OH, HO2, RO2
(2) The products of oxidation Organic carbon products (such as CH2O), HNO3, PAN NOy(3) Radiative parameters Aerosols, UV flux, clouds, single albedo (4) Meteorological parameters
* By Shanghai; By ACD; By both
The Measurement sitsThe Measurement sitsThe Measurement sitsThe Measurement sits
The current measurement instruments - IThe current measurement instruments - I(Shanghai ) (Shanghai ) The current measurement instruments - IThe current measurement instruments - I(Shanghai ) (Shanghai )
(1) Ozone, CO, NOx instrumentsOzone, CO, NOx instruments
(2) Ozone sounding(2) Ozone sounding(2) VOC species(2) VOC species Canister, 105 SpeciesCanister, 105 Species(3) Radiative instruments(3) Radiative instruments UV UV
(4) Aerosol instruments(4) Aerosol instruments AOD – Sunphotometer AOD – Sunphotometer SC –Nephelometer SC –Nephelometer BC - Magee AE31BC - Magee AE31 PM - GRIMM180(PM1,PM2.5,PM10)PM - GRIMM180(PM1,PM2.5,PM10)
(5) lidar(5) lidar Aerosol profilesAerosol profiles
The current measurement instruments The current measurement instruments The current measurement instruments The current measurement instruments
The current measurement instruments The current measurement instruments The current measurement instruments The current measurement instruments
13/11/2005 20/11/2005 27/11/20050
10
20
30
40
50
Date
voc
(pp
bv)
alkylaromaticityetherhalohydrocarbonketonealkenehydroxyaldehydeallyhalidehalogenated aromatic hydrocarbons
The current measurement instruments - IIThe current measurement instruments - II(US ACD & Universities) (US ACD & Universities) The current measurement instruments - IIThe current measurement instruments - II(US ACD & Universities) (US ACD & Universities)
(1) Ozone (1) Ozone (2) Nitrogen species(2) Nitrogen species NOx, HONO, HNONOx, HONO, HNO33, PAN, TPAN, PAN, TPAN(3) VOC species(3) VOC species On-line measurements of VOCs (PTRMS)On-line measurements of VOCs (PTRMS)(4) Radicals (4) Radicals OH, HOOH, HO22, RO, RO22
(5) Oxidation products(5) Oxidation products CHCH22O, PAN, HNOO, PAN, HNO33 (6) Photolysis rates(6) Photolysis rates J[OJ[O33], J[NO], J[NO22], ….], ….(7) Aerosols (7) Aerosols Composition (sulfate, nitrate, ….)Composition (sulfate, nitrate, ….) Size distributions (from nm to µm) Size distributions (from nm to µm)
Why need more measurements - I Why need more measurements - I (US ACD & Universities) (US ACD & Universities) Why need more measurements - I Why need more measurements - I (US ACD & Universities) (US ACD & Universities)
Understand the NOx/VOCs emission ratioUnderstand the NOx/VOCs emission ratio OH + NOOH + NO22 HNO HNO33 (NOx oxidation) (NOx oxidation) OH + VOC OH + VOC CH CH22O (VOC oxidation)O (VOC oxidation) OH + VOC + NOx OH + VOC + NOx PAN (NOx and VOC oxidation) PAN (NOx and VOC oxidation)
The ratios of HNOThe ratios of HNO33/NOy and PAN/NOy are the indicators of the ratio /NOy and PAN/NOy are the indicators of the ratio of NOof NOXX/VOC emission/VOC emission
Why need more measurements - II Why need more measurements - II (US ACD & Universities) (US ACD & Universities) Why need more measurements - II Why need more measurements - II (US ACD & Universities) (US ACD & Universities)
The ratios of HNOThe ratios of HNO33/NOy and PAN/NOy are the indicators of the ratio /NOy and PAN/NOy are the indicators of the ratio
NOX/VOC emission NOX/VOC emission MC (NOx/VOC = 0.1)MC (NOx/VOC = 0.1) NY (NOx/VOC=0.4)NY (NOx/VOC=0.4)
Why the ratio of NOx/VOC is important?Why the ratio of NOx/VOC is important?
NO+ONO+O33NONO22 NONO22+hv+hv O O33
Chemical ModelsChemical Models
WRF-Chem ModelWRF-Chem ModelNCAR – MM modelNCAR – MM model
WRF-Chem modelWRF-Chem model
WRF-Chem is a newly developed model has several advance features,For example:
(1) Online coupled dynamical-chemical-aerosol model (In able to study the feedbacks between climate and chemistry)
(2) Nested model (In able to study in and out flow round the SH city)
(3) Interaction between aerosols and gas-phase chemistry (In able to study the effect of aerosols on ozone
To address scientific issuesTo address scientific issues
(1) Contributions from various anthropogenic emissions (power plants, auto, etc)
(2) Contributions from anthropogenic and biogenic emissions
(3) Impacts of aerosols on the formation of ozone
(4) Changes of traffic on ozone formation (diurnal, and spatial variation (e.g., Weekend effect )
Ozone ForecastingOzone Forecasting
(1) To predict the ozone concentrations (validated with measurements to improve model)
(2) To assess the methodology to reduce ozone concentrations (reduction of emissions; changes in traffic pattern) (3) To estimate the cost /benefit ratio
(4) To study the potential ozone concentration (preventing high ozone problem in Shanghai)
Key issues – Improve emissionsKey issues – Improve emissions
(1)(1) Based on the Street’s Inventory (1/6 degree)Based on the Street’s Inventory (1/6 degree)(2)(2) Update the surface cover of ShanghaiUpdate the surface cover of Shanghai(3)(3) Update the traffic distributionUpdate the traffic distribution(4)(4) Update the population distributionUpdate the population distribution(5)(5) Update the point source distributionUpdate the point source distribution(6)(6) Update emission index, especially for trafficUpdate emission index, especially for traffic
A Fully Interactive ModelA Fully Interactive Model (A future environment model) (A future environment model)
WRF-ChemWRF-ChemEmissionsEmissions
Chemicals(ozone)Chemicals(ozone)AerosolsAerosols
Traditional ModelTraditional Model
InteractiveInteractive EnvironmentalEnvironmentalModelModel
WRF-ChemWRF-Chem
Impact ModelImpact ModelHealthHealthClimateClimateagricultureagriculture
Future Environmental Forecast Model Future Environmental Forecast Model (FEFM) (FEFM)
Applications of the FEFMApplications of the FEFM
(1)(1) To forecast and prevent potential To forecast and prevent potential high ozone in Shanghaihigh ozone in Shanghai
(2) To help for city planning(2) To help for city planning
(3)To assess environmental changes on (3)To assess environmental changes on air quality and human’s health air quality and human’s health
Top Related