World Water Scenarios 2012 – 2035
William J Cosgrove & Gilberto GallopinChicago 17 July 2009
Overview
World Water Vision Scenarios 2000-2025 Why new scenarios? Proposed new scenarios Questions, suggestions and expressions of interest in participating
World Water Scenarios 2000-2025
How?
Scenario Development Panel Drivers: demographics; economic; technological; social; governance; environmental Focus Groups on Drivers
- energy- information and communications- biotechnology- institutions, society and economy
Models
core elements in the Vision approach
• participatory approach with extensive consultation: open and transparent process; stakeholders stimulated to contribute to the Vision and make it their own.
• “out-of-the-box” thinking: emphasis on getting people to think beyond the boundaries of their normal frame of reference – stimulated through qualitative global scenarios to kick off consultations.
• global analysis to assure integration and co-ordination: scenarios and subsequent simulation modeling to provide a coherent basis for the global vision.
• Emphasis on communication: information available not just for the project team but for many outside it through as many channels as possible.
Shiklomanov:1995 ref. data
water resources and use
IFPRI: IMPACT:food demand,
supply and trade
IWMI: PODIUM:Irrigated areas &irr. efficiencies
SEI: Polestar:Population and GDP
for 18 regions
Kassel: WaterGAP:2025 water and
use projected for1162 river basins
SEI: WEAP:basin level
case studies
Three Global Vision Scenarios(2nd generation)
Improved GlobalVision Scenarios
Vision Analytical
Framework
Resulting in
• Increasing the consistency and “feasibility check” on the scenarios
• Providing higher credibility through the intersection of different independent approaches
• Providing quantitative estimates of some thresholds and requirements
Anatomy of scenarios
Current situation Critical dimensions Driving forcesStrategic invariants
(predetermined elements) Critical uncertainties Plots (logics of the scenarios) Image of the future
Outcomes:
Scenarios: - Business-as-Usual- Technology, Economics
and Private Sector- Values and Lifestyles
World Water Vision (backcast)
Why new scenarios?Real Time Delphi Exercise November 2007
Analyses based on the results of the IPCC scenarios will be useful in WWDR3. Further scenario development based on the IPCC scenarios
seems warranted. New scenarios should not be started from scratch but
include new drivers that have now become apparent. Revisions to the World Water Vision scenarios should be
based on new information available. A (Real Time?) Delphi process may be useful in developing
these new scenarios, but Scientific and empirical observations should be used as
the starting point.
Drivers in WWDR3: Demographic, economic
and social Technological Policies, laws and finance Climate change
Possible futures
Opening the “water box”
Survey of 200 Decision-Makers May 2009Over the past decade there has been no comprehensive review of external forces(drivers) acting on the water sector and their interaction in possible futures . Do you agree that scenarios covering this should be included in
WWDR4?”
Strongly Agree
Agree
Neutral
Disagree
Strongly Disagree
Encouraged, often with restrictions, cautions regarding resources required & avoiding duplication
Proposed new scenarios
Output: a set of qualitative scenarios characterized by narratives and causal diagrams unfolding in time, combined, for those aspects amenable to mathematical formalization, with quantitative scenarios characterized by simulation models.
Approach: a continuous iteration between the building of the qualitative scenarios and the simulation models, engaging experts and stakeholders in the scenario-building exercise and encouraging communication and dialogue between these different actors.
Global Scenarios
In-depth discussion of the existing scenarios, followed by the development of qualitative “storylines” by a group of stakeholders and experts: understandable and transparent basis for understanding scenario assumptions attractive method for communicating the substance
of the scenarios to non-technical people distill the combined views of the stakeholders and
experts
Global Scenarios
In parallel, modelers produce quantitative scenarios which provide numerical data, and make possible a consistency check of the storylines.
Scenarios at national and sub-national scales
Scenario construction process and scenario findings more directly connected to concrete actors and decision-makers.
Global scenarios give general direction and provideperspective and a set of functional constraints for the national and sub-national scenarios.
More local scenarios provide flesh and specificity to exercise and demonstrate the diversity of situations involved in water issues.
Products:
set of qualitative and quantitative scenarios and their documentation;
document discussing the main strategic implications of the global scenarios, the identified critical nodes for action, and the insights obtained from the scenario exercise;
set of local water scenarios; tool-box for local scenario-building; and improvement in the scenario-building capacity of
local groups.
Your questions?
Suggestions re the approach?
Are you interested in participating - at the global level?- at the local level?
Thank you!
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