World Water Scenarios 2012 – 2035

William J Cosgrove & Gilberto GallopinChicago 17 July 2009

Overview

World Water Vision Scenarios 2000-2025 Why new scenarios? Proposed new scenarios Questions, suggestions and expressions of interest in participating

World Water Scenarios 2000-2025

How?

Scenario Development Panel Drivers: demographics; economic; technological; social; governance; environmental Focus Groups on Drivers

- energy- information and communications- biotechnology- institutions, society and economy

Models

core elements in the Vision approach

• participatory approach with extensive consultation: open and transparent process; stakeholders stimulated to contribute to the Vision and make it their own.

• “out-of-the-box” thinking: emphasis on getting people to think beyond the boundaries of their normal frame of reference – stimulated through qualitative global scenarios to kick off consultations.

• global analysis to assure integration and co-ordination: scenarios and subsequent simulation modeling to provide a coherent basis for the global vision.

• Emphasis on communication: information available not just for the project team but for many outside it through as many channels as possible.

Shiklomanov:1995 ref. data

water resources and use

IFPRI: IMPACT:food demand,

supply and trade

IWMI: PODIUM:Irrigated areas &irr. efficiencies

SEI: Polestar:Population and GDP

for 18 regions

Kassel: WaterGAP:2025 water and

use projected for1162 river basins

SEI: WEAP:basin level

case studies

Three Global Vision Scenarios(2nd generation)

Improved GlobalVision Scenarios

Vision Analytical

Framework

Resulting in

• Increasing the consistency and “feasibility check” on the scenarios

• Providing higher credibility through the intersection of different independent approaches

• Providing quantitative estimates of some thresholds and requirements

Anatomy of scenarios

Current situation Critical dimensions Driving forcesStrategic invariants

(predetermined elements) Critical uncertainties Plots (logics of the scenarios) Image of the future

Outcomes:

Scenarios: - Business-as-Usual- Technology, Economics

and Private Sector- Values and Lifestyles

World Water Vision (backcast)

Why new scenarios?Real Time Delphi Exercise November 2007

Analyses based on the results of the IPCC scenarios will be useful in WWDR3. Further scenario development based on the IPCC scenarios

seems warranted. New scenarios should not be started from scratch but

include new drivers that have now become apparent. Revisions to the World Water Vision scenarios should be

based on new information available. A (Real Time?) Delphi process may be useful in developing

these new scenarios, but Scientific and empirical observations should be used as

the starting point.

Drivers in WWDR3: Demographic, economic

and social Technological Policies, laws and finance Climate change

Possible futures

Opening the “water box”

Survey of 200 Decision-Makers May 2009Over the past decade there has been no comprehensive review of external forces(drivers) acting on the water sector and their interaction in possible futures . Do you agree that scenarios covering this should be included in

WWDR4?”

Strongly Agree

Agree

Neutral

Disagree

Strongly Disagree

Encouraged, often with restrictions, cautions regarding resources required & avoiding duplication

Proposed new scenarios

Output: a set of qualitative scenarios characterized by narratives and causal diagrams unfolding in time, combined, for those aspects amenable to mathematical formalization, with quantitative scenarios characterized by simulation models.

Approach: a continuous iteration between the building of the qualitative scenarios and the simulation models, engaging experts and stakeholders in the scenario-building exercise and encouraging communication and dialogue between these different actors.

Global Scenarios

In-depth discussion of the existing scenarios, followed by the development of qualitative “storylines” by a group of stakeholders and experts: understandable and transparent basis for understanding scenario assumptions attractive method for communicating the substance

of the scenarios to non-technical people distill the combined views of the stakeholders and

experts

Global Scenarios

In parallel, modelers produce quantitative scenarios which provide numerical data, and make possible a consistency check of the storylines.

Scenarios at national and sub-national scales

Scenario construction process and scenario findings more directly connected to concrete actors and decision-makers.

Global scenarios give general direction and provideperspective and a set of functional constraints for the national and sub-national scenarios.

More local scenarios provide flesh and specificity to exercise and demonstrate the diversity of situations involved in water issues.

Products:

set of qualitative and quantitative scenarios and their documentation;

document discussing the main strategic implications of the global scenarios, the identified critical nodes for action, and the insights obtained from the scenario exercise;

set of local water scenarios; tool-box for local scenario-building; and improvement in the scenario-building capacity of

local groups.

Your questions?

Suggestions re the approach?

Are you interested in participating - at the global level?- at the local level?

Thank you!