Download - World Oil Outlook 2045

World Oil Outlook 2045

Launch of 2020 edition

Presented by OPEC SecretariatVienna, 8 October 2020

World Oil Outlook 2045

Launch presentation sponsored by OMV and WU Executive Academy

OPEC WOO - essential and detailed analysis of the prospects for the global oil industry

The WOO OPEC’s flagship annual publication, combining the

expertise of the OPEC Secretariat and professionals in OPEC

Member Countries.

The WOO is now also available as an APP for Android and iOS.

© 2020 Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 4

• Global energy demand projected to increase by around 25% between 2019 and 2040

• Demand increases in non-OECD regions and drops in OECD

All energy sources needed to facilitate economic recover, meet future demand and eradicate energy poverty

Primary energy demand by fuel Primary energy demand by region


Shifting time horizon to 2045 amplifies the role of other renewables in future energy demand mix

Growth in primary energy demand by fuel, 2019-2045

• Other renewables projected

to experience the largest

growth (+25.5 mboe/d)

• Gas also expected to see a

large demand increase (+24

mboe/d)

• Coal demand set to decline

• Oil will retain the highest

share in the energy mix


• Oil demand projected to increase by

– 4.0 mb/d between 2019 and 2025

– almost 10 mb/d between 2019

and 2045

• Demand growth in non-OECD

(+22.5 mb/d) countries will more

than offset declines in OECD (-13.1

mb/d)

• Healthy demand growth in the first

part of the forecast period will be

followed by plateauing oil demand

in the second part

Global oil demand, 2019-2045

Long-term oil demand is projected to reach 109 mb/d by 2045


Transport and petrochemicals remain the key to future demand

99.7

109.1

2.6

3.7

2.8

0.3 0.5

1.3

91

94

97

100

103

106

109

112

Demand in 2019

Growth intransportation

Growth in industry

Growth in other sectors

Demandin 2045

mb/d

Others*

Aviation

Road

Other industry

Petrochemicals Resid/ Comm/Agr-1.1Electricity generation

Resid/ Comm/Agr

Oil demand growth by sector between 2019 and 2045• Various transport modes will continue

providing basis for oil demand growth

– Aviation sector +2.8 mb/d

– Road transport +2.6 mb/d

– Marine bunkers +0.8 mb/d

• Petrochemicals will be the largest

source of incremental demand

(+3.7 mb/d)

• Some demand increase also in ‘other

industry’ and res./comm./agriculture

• Electricity generation: demand

decline of more than 1 mb/d


The share of EVs is projected to reach more than 16% in 2045

Composition of the global vehicle fleet, 2019–2045• 2.6 billion vehicles on the road by

2045

• Around 430 million will be EVs

• The share of EVs projected to

reach around 5% in 2030, 13% in

2040 and more than 16% in 2045

• NGVs will account for around 120

million vehicles in 2045

• Oil demand in the road transport

sector at a relatively stable level

around 47 mb/d after 2030


• After declining sharply in 2020, in the medium-term, non-OPEC supply is expected to mostly recover from the

pandemic-related shut-ins seen this year

• However, only a handful of non-OPEC producers will see growth beyond the late 2020s, meaning by 2045, supply

will return to levels seen in 2019

• Thus over the long-term, OPEC liquids will need to make up the balance, growing from 34 mb/d in 2019 to 44

mb/d by 2045

Long-term Non-OPEC liquids supply OPEC total liquids supply

Long-term, ample scope for OPEC total liquids supply


• Distillation additions in the LT following the demand growth in developing regions

• Towards the end of the projection period average annual addition rate at around 0.35 mb/d

• Almost 85% of new additions projected in Asia-Pacific, the Middle East and Africa

Long-term total distillation capacity additions estimated at 15.6 mb/d

Distillation capacity additions and oil demand growth,

2020-2045

Distillation capacity additions,

2020–2045


• Recent upstream investment cuts are a concern

• Upstream spending needs to average $380 billion per year

Cumulative long-term oil-related investment requirements will be $12.6 trillion

Annual upstream investment requirements Cumulative oil-related investment requirements

2020–2045


Energy consumption per capita vs. GDP ($1,000 PPP)

per capita, 2019-2045• Energy consumption per capita

remains an area of inequality

between OECD and non-OECD

countries

• Global energy poverty is declining

but the gap is still wide

• Non-OECD is expected to see

rapid gains in energy consumption

per capita, but this will remain

below OECD levels

Energy poverty will continue to decline, but remains an issue

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