Windows in the Enterprise: Looking Beyond Windows 2000John EnckVice President and Research DirectorServer StrategiesGartner
Key Issues
1. What are the road maps for Windows and IA server technologies?
2. What server roles are (and are not) suitable for Windows technology?
3. What are the future challenges and opportunities that will shape Windows?
4. What effect will .NET have on existing computing infrastructures?
Key Issues
1. What are the road maps for Windows and IA server technologies?
2. What server roles are (and are not) suitable for Windows technology?
3. What are the future challenges and opportunities that will shape Windows?
4. What effect will .NET have on existing computing infrastructures?
Server Forecast by OS
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
$ B
illio
ns
Others
NSK
OS/400
zOS
Tru64
HP-UX
AIX
Solaris
Unixware
Netware
Linux
Windows
NT
2001 = Actuals; 2002-2006 = Forecast
March 2002
Server Forecast by Processor
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
$ B
illio
ns
OtherCMOSMIPSSPARCAlphaPowerIA-32ItaniumPA-RISC
2001 = Actuals; 2002-2006 = Forecast
March 2002
Windows Road Map
Windows .NET Windows .NET Active Directory V2Active Directory V2 64-bit support64-bit support ““McKinley”-based McKinley”-based
systemssystems 16-way systems from 16-way systems from
IBMIBMWindows “Longhorn”Windows “Longhorn” Work managementWork management Partition-awarenessPartition-awareness
20022002
20032003
20042004
20052005
20062006
20072007Windows Windows
“Blackcomb”“Blackcomb” Unified data store V1?Unified data store V1?
Release Synchronization:Release Synchronization: All All packages same time? packages same time? Holidays, Holidays, back-to-school…back-to-school…
Customization:Customization: Shared vs. Shared vs. unique code? unique code? Consumer, Consumer, Datacenter, 64-bit…Datacenter, 64-bit…
Frequency:Frequency: Size of Mid-term Size of Mid-term “releases”, or longer-term major “releases”, or longer-term major releases? releases? Active Directory, Active Directory, partitioning, .NET, bonus partitioning, .NET, bonus packs…packs…
Hardware Synchronization:Hardware Synchronization: Intel processors, OEM systems? Intel processors, OEM systems? Itanium, McKinley…Itanium, McKinley…
Delivery:Delivery: Pre-installed, in-place Pre-installed, in-place upgrades, subscriptions? upgrades, subscriptions? OEM OEM delivery, Internet delivery…delivery, Internet delivery…
Microsoft’s Release Microsoft’s Release ChallengesChallenges
PerformancePerformance
’’0404’’0202 ’’0303’’0101 ’’0606’’0505 ’’0707
Itanium .25Itanium .25McKinley .18McKinley .18Madison/Deerfield .13 … .09Madison/Deerfield .13 … .09
PIII XeonPIII XeonXeon (P4) at .18, .13 and .09 with hyper-threadingXeon (P4) at .18, .13 and .09 with hyper-threading
PIIIPIII Pentium 4 at .18, .13 and .09Pentium 4 at .18, .13 and .09
PIIIPIII PIII MPIII M Alternate MobileAlternate MobileP4 MP4 M
64-bit SMP64-bit SMP
32-bit SMP32-bit SMP
32-bit mainstream uniprocessor32-bit mainstream uniprocessor
32-bit extended-addressing SMP?32-bit extended-addressing SMP?
?
32-bit low-power uniprocessor32-bit low-power uniprocessor
Intel Server Processor Road Map
Key Issues
1. What are the road maps for Windows and IA server technologies?
2. What server roles are (and are not) suitable for Windows technology?
3. What are the future challenges and opportunities that will shape Windows?
4. What effect will .NET have on existing computing infrastructures?
Operating System Landscape
2001/20022001/2002 20062006
Increasing Increasing Volume Volume
OpportunitOpportunityy
Increasing System and Application ComplexityIncreasing System and Application ComplexityAs of 2/02As of 2/02
LinuxLinuxNT/W2KNT/W2K UnixUnix Z/OSZ/OSNetWareNetWare
Enterprise-Enterprise-CriticalCritical
Specific andSpecific andCustomizedCustomized
Front-EndFront-EndApplicationsApplications
Web and Web and InfrastructureInfrastructure
Front-EndFront-EndApplicationsApplications
Specific and Specific and CustomizedCustomized
Enterprise-Enterprise-CriticalCritical
Web and Web and InfrastructurInfrastructur
ee
Operating System Landscape
Server Roles are Evolving
Old World• Monolithic computing
architectures• Rapid obsolescence• 1-to-1 resource
ownership• Workloads
disaggregated“Net Gen”• Capacity on demand (one-
to-two years)• Service-based
architectures (two-to-four years)
• IT utilities — pay per-usage (three-to-four years)
• Mixed workloads and virtual resources (five+ years)
• Zero latency business process (five+ years)
EdgeSpecific functionManage networkFast setup/low costHorizontal scaling
Caching, firewall, routers, network appliances, Web server, gatewaysSmall to midrange SMP, midtier, simple transactions
Large, mixed, complex workloads; investment protection
ApplicationGeneral purposeManage user Vertical scalingPackaged apps.
Database/TransactionExtreme scalingManage enterprise
Complex transactions
Highly available
Does one size fit all?
Horizontal Scaling
Vertical Scaling
3-D: Consolidat
ed Workloads
Capacity on Demand
Requirement Windows
Rapid, simple, inexpensive deployment, central management, reduced space/power consumption
Single image, large memory, good reliability
Share system resources without collision (mixed workload, partitions)
Rapidly and easily scale or replace failed capacity without paying for unused capacity
Application Center, appliance offerings
1,300 concurrent OLTP RDBMS users today
Job objects, work management tools, VMware, ES7000
Hardware vendor offerings for horizontal scaling
System PerformanceSystem Performance
Single System AvailabilitySingle System Availability
Workload ManagementWorkload Management
OS PartitioningOS Partitioning
BestBestWorstWorst
ISV EnthusiasmISV EnthusiasmArchitectural ViabilityArchitectural Viability
zSerieszSeriesz/OSz/OS
SunFireSunFireSolarisSolaris
8-Way8-WayWindowsWindows
ES7000ES7000WindowsWindows
TechnologyTechnology
BusinessBusinessPracticesPractices
MarketMarketMomentumMomentum
Application ChoiceApplication Choice
SupportSupport
Negotiation OpportunityNegotiation Opportunity
Professional ServicesProfessional Services
Availability of SkillsAvailability of Skills
Head to Head at the High End
Key Issues
1. What are the road maps for Windows and IA server technologies?
2. What server roles are (and are not) suitable for Windows technology?
3. What are the future challenges and opportunities that will shape Windows?
4. What effect will .NET have on existing computing infrastructures?
The Real Causes of Server Downtime
Technology Failures
•MS development process•Hardware failures •Environmental factors•Power failures and
disasters•Being addressed by
Windows development process
20%40%
40%
Operator Errors
•Inexperienced skills
•Poor/immature processes
•Being addressed by Windows Datacenter (services program)
Application Failures
•Memory leaks•Weak architecture,
design•Poor systems
integration, testing•Immature applications•Being addressed by
memory leak focus, certification push
Outstanding skills and processes could eliminate many issues, and should be the primary focus to increase availability.
Entry Skills
Availability
Retention
Cost
Everywhere!
Inexpensive
Technical growth
Experienced Data
Center Skills
Extremely hard to find
Very expensive — strong
competition (especially from
service providers)Significant
problems — strong Windows
skills are very portable
RecommendationsFocus on Skills Development
•Service providers: With skills transfer
•Internally: Mentors, apprenticesOrganize for Services, Not
Technologies•Cross-platform teams
Focus on Retention Programs
Windows Data Center Skills Gap
Sever Consolidation: The Options are Coming . . .
Isolation Administration
costConfiguration
costSpace, heat
Hardware efficiency
Windows in 2001
Windows in 2004
ApplicationWindowsVMwareUnisys ES7000Intel Server
Best
RacksMixed
Workload
Hardware Partitioning
Logical Partitioni
ng
Worst
The Ultimate Showdown . . .
Windows Strengths•Competitive choices between
Intel server vendors•Configuration price•Availability of entry skills•Microsoft software and
development tools•Strength in existing
infrastructures — e.g., file/print, e-mail, directory
•Small-business accessibility, suite
Windows Challenges
•Enterprise reluctance (organization structure, existing investments)
•Proven stability•Proven scalability•Server consolidation•Availability/cost/portability of
experienced skills•Product breadth•Price and licensing vs. Linux
vs. Unix
Key Issues
1 . What are the road maps for Windows and IA server technologies?
2. What server roles are (and are not) suitable for Windows technology?
3. What are the future challenges and opportunities that will shape Windows?
4. What effect will .NET have on existing computing infrastructures?
Operating System Life Cycles
20012001 20022002 20032003 20042004 20052005 20062006
NTW v.4NTW v.4
20002000
2000 Server2000 Server
Gartner estimatesGartner estimatesGartner estimatesGartner estimates
XPXP
.NET Server.NET Server
““Longhorn” ClientLonghorn” Client
9898
NTS v.4NTS v.4Reduced Reduced channels, fixes channels, fixes for feefor feeOnline support Online support onlyonly
Product launchProduct launch
““Longhorn” ServerLonghorn” Server****
********
********
****20072007
Dot What?.NET vis-à-vis Application Developers
XML, SOAP, WSDL, UDDI, CLR, ADO.NET
.NET vis-à-vis Windows 2000
Active Directory improvements
Instant messaging infrastructure
End-user restore (self-service file recovery)
Itanium Processor Family (IPF, a.k.a. IA-64) support
New packaging (Web, Standard, Enterprise, and Datacenter)
Eight-node clustering in Datacenter; four-node in Enterprise
.NET vis-à-vis Windows NT 4
The carrot… and the stick!
Windows Server Migration: A Matter of Timing
If deployment timing fits, use Windows .NET servers If new Active Directory features are valuable, delay
deployment and use Windows .NET servers Otherwise, deploy Windows 2000
NoWindows 2000
servers
End of Support 2005? Ready for Deployment Late 2002or
Avoid mixing domain controllers; mixing others is acceptable
SomeWindows 2000
servers
AllWindows 2000
servers
Remain on Windows 2000; upgrade with hardware refresh (avoid mixing domain controllers)
Active Directory in Windows .NET
Domain rename
Forest-level root trusts
Ability to delete schema extensions
Introduction of application partitions
Support for LDAP inetOrgPerson object
Support for multiple binds over one LDAP
connection
Global catalog no longer required in each site
Support for directory initialization from media
Improved intersite replication topology
generation
Group membership replication improvements
Group size limitations removed
Improved migration and management tools
= = Only available with Only available with 100% Windows .NET 100% Windows .NET domain controllersdomain controllers
= = Available with mixed Available with mixed Windows 2000/.NET Windows 2000/.NET domain controllersdomain controllers
Copyright © 2002
RecommendationsRoles: Plan for a long-term architecture that includes several different
operating systems in various roles.
Cost: The most important factors in enterprise Windows server TCO are
experienced skills and efficient administration tools.
Application Support: Check comparable references first for any high-end
Windows-based deployments. Avoid the leading-edge.
Availability: The best way to maximize Windows availability is through skills
and processes.
Server Consolidation: Server consolidation is technically feasible, however
use extreme caution and evaluate the technology options (partitioning,
workload management, virtual servers) carefully.
Skills and Services: If Windows is or will become mission-critical for your
enterprise, then an employee cross-training and retention program should be
a top priority.
Windows in the Enterprise: Looking
Beyond Windows 2000
John EnckVice President and Research DirectorServer StrategiesGartner
QUESTIONS?
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