8/2/2019 Volby v ecku, kdo je kdo (dokument v AJ)
1/6
ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ARE IN THE DISCLOSURE APPENDIX. FOR OTHER
IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, PLEASE REFER TO https://firesearchdisclosure.credit-suisse.com .
CREDIT SUISSE SECURITIES RESEARCH & ANALYTICS BEYOND INFORMATION
Client-Driven Solutions, Insights, and Access
European Economics
Preview of the Greek elections
Less than a week before the Greek general election (May 6) the outcome
remains uncertain. Support for the two main parties New Democracy (center-
right) and PASOK (socialists) is at historical lows with the share of the protest
vote and the undecided remaining very high. The latest polls published more
than a week ago, suggest that although the New Democracy party is leading the
polls, it will not be in a position to get a majority in parliament.
A coalition government between New Democracy and PASOK is the most likely
scenario in our view. Both parties have committed to support the EU/IMFprogramme. It is unclear however at this point, if such a coalition will enjoy a
strong majority in parliament. Tensions among its members and strong
opposition from the anti-bailout parties may question its stability.
In the scenario under which New Democracy and PASOK fail to create a
coalition government, a broader coalition with other parties that are not strong
supporters of the EU/IMF programme might be attempted or else another
election will follow suit. Both outcomes would add uncertainty and create doubts
on the successful implementation of the programme reforms.
Exhibit 1: Greek elections Opinion poll (Apr 19)
29.4%
12.6%
20.0%18.3%
13.1%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Left/Far left PASOK New Democracy Right/far right Undecided
32.6%
Note: Left/far left and right/far right are an aggregation of several parties with lower than 10% of the votes.Source: Credit Suisse, MRB
02 May 2012Economics Research
http://www.credit-suisse.com/researchandanalytics
Research Analysts
Yiagos Alexopoulos
+44 20 7888 7536
yiagos.alex [email protected]
Christel Aranda-Hassel
+44 20 7888 1383
Steven Bry ce
44 20 7883 7360
Violante Di C anossa
+44 20 7883 4192
Nev ille Hill
+44 20 7888 1334
Axel Lang
+44 20 7883 3738
Giovanni Zanni
+33 1 7039 0132
8/2/2019 Volby v ecku, kdo je kdo (dokument v AJ)
2/6
02 May 2012
European Econ omics 2
Preview of the Greek elections
Less than a week before the Greek general election (May 6) the outcome remains
uncertain. Support for the two main parties New Democracy and PASOK is at
historical lows (35%-40% against 78% in the 2009 election), with the share of the protest
vote and the undecided remaining very high. The latest polls published more than a week
ago (due to a restriction for publication of opinion polls two weeks before the elections),
suggest that no single party will be in a position to get a majority in parliament, so a
coalition government would be likely not something very common in the Greek political
scene.
Exhibit 2: Greek elections Opinion poll (Apr 19)% of v oters
8.5%
10.3%
3.5%
7.1%
12.6%
20.0%
2.6%
8.1%
2.7%
4.9%
6.6%
13.1%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
KKE
Syriz
a
Green
s
Dem
ocratic
Left
PASO
K
NewDe
mocracy
Dem
ocratic
Allia
nce
Inde
pend
entG
reek
s
LAOS
Golde
nDa
wn
Oth
ers
Unde
cided
32.6%
Source: Credit Suisse, MRB
Greek political system how does it work?
The Greek parliament has 300 members, elected by a system of reinforced
proportionality . Reinforced because the party that has the most votes is awarded 50
additional seats (irrespective of its share of the votes) and for a party to be represented in
parliament, it has to get at least 3% of the votes. Proportional, because the remaining
250 seats are allocated proportionally to those parties that meet the 3% threshold. Based
on the above, for a party to secure a majority of the seats (151 MPs), without having to
rely on a number of parties not meeting the 3% threshold, needs to get at least 40.5% of
the votes (i.e. 40.5% of 250 = 101 seats, plus the 50-seat majority premium). In practice,
this percentage is lower, since it is unlikely for all parties participating in the election tomake it into parliament1.
1 If for example 10% votes for parties that do not reach the 3% threshold, parliamentary seats will be allocated to the remaining90%, based on the parties respective shares.
Yiagos Alexopoulos
+44 20 7888 7536
yiagos.alex [email protected]
8/2/2019 Volby v ecku, kdo je kdo (dokument v AJ)
3/6
02 May 2012
European Econ omics 3
Main political parties
Exhibit 3 provides an overview of the main political parties in Greece and their stance
towards euro membership and the EU/IMF programme.
Exhibit 3: Overview of the main political parties in Greece
Political party Political position/Ideology Euro membership EU/IMF programme Main proposals Poll share
New Democracy Centre-right/conservative Follow the adjustment programme,
adding more pro-growth measures
21%-25%
PASOK Centre-left/socialist Follow the adjustment programme 14%-19%
Syriza Left-w ing Unilateral default inside the euro,
abandon the adjustment programme
9%-13%
KKE Communist Default and ex it the euro 9%-11%
Independent Greeks Right-wing Unilateral default inside the euro,
abandon the adjustment programme
8%-11%
Democratic Left Centre-left to left-w ing Renegotiation of the adjustment
programme
6%-9%
Golden Dawn Far-right Default and ex it the euro 4%-6%
LAOS Right-wing Abandon the adjustment programme and
agree on an ECB loan
3%-4%
Greens Left-w ing Renegotiation of the loan agreement 3%-4%
Democratic Alliance Liberal Follow the adjustment programme,
focusing on s tructural reforms
2%-4%
Note: The shares are based on the different opinion polls, after allocati on of the undecided voters. Undecided voters r epresent 13%-20%, while other parties not in the list above account for 5%-7% of the votes.Source: Credit Suisse
Where things stand at the moment?
At the moment, New Democracy is widely expected to win the elections, without however
securing the majority in parliament, despite the 50-seat premium. If a coalition government
was decided upon, the PASOK party would be the most likely candidate, given their
common stance on the EU/IMF programme and their coexistence in the latest interimgovernment. However, some opinion polls, suggest that even in such a scenario, the two
parties would not be in a position to have a majority in parliament, or have a weak majority
at best. Adding to the complexity, the leader of the New Democracy party, Antonis
Samaras, is strongly against the idea of a coalition government with PASOK. If an
additional member for the coalition was to be looked for, Democratic Alliance a liberal
party in favour of the reforms would be a likely candidate, however it is unclear whether
it will reach the 3% threshold needed to get into parliament. From the remaining parties,
the Democratic Left a pro-European party in favour of some reforms would be a
possible candidate, however its rejection of the EU/IMF programme as it is and its refusal
to participate in a New Democracy-PASOK coalition complicates the situation.
The protest vote in this election is high, with up to ten parties getting into parliament five
of which for the first time and ranging from far-right to far-left. Also the number ofundecided at 15-20% remains at high levels and would largely determine the outcome of
the election. Political analysts suggest, that as the election date is approaching, the New
Democracy and the PASOK party will manage to get back part of their traditional voters
and hence their support would be slightly higher than what the latest opinion polls imply.
It is worth noting that no coalition of parties without the participation of New Democracy
seems likely, mainly due to the 50-seat premium that the New Democracy party will get
and due to the fact that the rest of the votes are split among a collection of parties with
strong ideological differences, ranging from far-right to far-left.
8/2/2019 Volby v ecku, kdo je kdo (dokument v AJ)
4/6
02 May 2012
European Econ omics 4
Timeline after the elections
The election result will be known late at night on Sunday 6 May. Following that, if no party
has the majority of the votes (which is the most likely scenario), the president will ask the
leader of the first party in votes to try to form a government (e.g. through a coalition) that
enjoys the confidence of the parliament. If this fails or the party withdraws from its right,
then the second party is asked to do the same and so on. The process is repeated for the
three largest parties and each one has a three-day deadline. If these attempts fail, thepresident calls the parliamentary leaders of the parties on a last attempt to form a broad
coalition government. If that is also unsuccessful an interim government is formed that
would lead the country to a new election within a month.
Post-election scenarios
Given that it is unlikely that after the elections a single party will have a clear majority,
there are several scenarios that could play out. In the list below, we highlight those
scenarios that in our view are the most likely ones.
Scenario 1: New Democracy PASOK coalition. This is the most likely scenario, in our
view. Despite their pre-election announcements in light of the international pressure and
the lack of other alternatives the two parties are likely to form a coalition government.
Based on the poll numbers if nothing fundamentally changes this would be a rather
weak coalition. It is expected to implement the EU/IMF programme, however frictions
between the coalition members are likely. It is also expected to face strong opposition by
the anti-bailout parties, especially if it does not have the majority of the votes (lack of
strong popular mandate). It would be a rather fragile government, whose stability would be
largely determined from the economic outlook and the progress of the reforms, in our view.
Scenario 2: Broader coalition with the participation of other parties as well. Either
due to a lack of parliamentary majority of the above coalition or the need to enlarge the
popular base, a smaller party might be asked to join the coalition, e.g. the Democratic Left
or the Democratic Alliance. This will allow for a stronger parliamentary majority, but the
dynamics are not as straightforward. Taking into consideration the different programme
goals of the members of the coalition especially in the case of the Democratic Left the
government might not be flexible enough to implement the agreed reforms and a lot of the
measures might have to be watered down, in order to be passed in parliament.
Scenario 3: New elections. If there is unwillingness from the New Democracy party to
form a coalition government or attempts to do so fail, then new elections will follow suit.
This outcome would be disruptive, at least in the short term, and questions regarding the
implementation of the EU/IMF programme and Greeces existence in the euro will emerge.
In the new election it is possible that, in fear of an ungoverned country, part of the protest
vote will be shifted towards the main parties, resulting in a stronger government/coalition,
that would be in a position to implement its mandate. However, if this is not the case, the
risk of a disruptive development will materially increase.
8/2/2019 Volby v ecku, kdo je kdo (dokument v AJ)
5/6
FIXED INCOME RESEARCH > ECONOMICS RESEARCH > DEVELOPED COUNTRIES
Dr. Neal Soss, Managing DirectorChief Economist and Global Head of Economics
+1 212 325 3335
Eric Miller, Managing Director
Global Head of Fixed Income and Economic Research
+1 212 538 6480
EURO AREA AND UK ECONOMICS
Neville Hill, Director
Head of European Economics
+44 20 7888 [email protected]
Christel Aranda-Hassel, Director
+44 20 7888 [email protected]
Giovanni Zanni, Director
European Economics Paris+33 1 70 39 [email protected]
Violante di Canossa, Vice President
+44 20 7883 [email protected]
Axel Lang, Analyst
+44 20 7883 [email protected]
Steven Bryce, Analyst
+44 20 7883 [email protected]
Yiagos Alexopoulos, Analyst
+44 20 7888 7536
US ECONOMICS
Dr. Neal Soss, Managing Director
Head of US Economics+1 212 325 [email protected]
Jonathan Basile, Director
+1 212 538 [email protected]
Jay Feldman, Director
+1 212 325 [email protected]
Henry Mo, Director
+1 212 538 [email protected]
Dana Saporta, Director
+1 212 538 [email protected]
Jill Brown, Vice President
+1 212 325 [email protected]
Isaac Lebwohl, Associate
+1 212 538 [email protected]
Peggy Riordan, Assistant Vice President
+1 212 325 [email protected]
ASIA
JAPAN ECONOMICS
Hiromichi Shirakawa, Managing Director
+81 3 4550 [email protected]
Takashi Shiono, Associate
+81 3 4550 [email protected]
NON-JAPAN ECONOMICSDong Tao, Managing Director
Head of Non-Japan Asia Economics+852 2101 [email protected]
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]8/2/2019 Volby v ecku, kdo je kdo (dokument v AJ)
6/6
Disclosure AppendixAnalyst CertificationThe analysts i dentified in this report each certify, wi th respect to the companies or securities that the indi vidual analyzes, that (1) the views ex pressed in this report accurately reflect his or her personal
views about all of the subject companies and securiti es and (2) no part of his or her c ompensation was, is or will be directl y or indirectly related to the specifi c recommendations or vi ews ex pressed in
this report.
Disclaimer
References in this report to Credit Sui sse include all of the subsidiaries and affil iates of Credit Suisse AG operating under its investment banking divisi on. F or more information on our structure, pleaseuse the following link: https://www.credit-suisse.com/who_we_are/en/.
This report is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity w ho is a citiz en or resident of or located in any l ocality, state, country or other jurisdic tion where such
distribution, publication, availabili ty or use would be contrary to law or regulation or which would subject Credit Suiss e AG or its affili ates ( CS ) to any registration or licensing requirement withi n such
urisdiction. All material presented in this report, unless specifi cally indicated otherwis e, is under copyright to CS. None of the material, nor its content, nor any copy of it, may be altered in any way,transmitted to, c opied or distributed to any other party, w ithout the prior ex press written permission of CS. All trademarks, service marks and l ogos used in this report are trademarks or service marks or
registered trademarks or service marks of CS or its affiliates.
The information, tools and material presented in this report are provided to you for information purposes only and are not to be used or considered as an offer or the solici tation of an offer to sell or tobuy or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. CS may not have taken any steps to ensure that the securities referred to in t his report are suitable for any particular i nvestor. CS wi ll not
treat recipients of this report as its customers by virtue of their receiving thi s report. The investments and services contained or referred to in this report may not be suitable for you a nd it is
recommended that you consult an independent investment advisor if you are in doubt about such investments or investment se rvices. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting or
tax advice, or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your individual circumstances, or otherwis e constitutes a personal recommendation to you. CS does notadvise on the tax consequences of investments and you are advised to contact an independent tax adviser. Please note in parti cular that the bases and levels of tax ation may change.
Information and opinions presented in this report have been obtained or derived from sources believed by CS to be reliable, but CS makes no representation as to their accuracy or co mpleteness. CS
accepts no liabili ty for loss arising from the use of the material presented in this report, exc ept that this exclu sion of liability does not apply to the extent that such liability arises under specific statutes orregulations applicable to CS. This report is not to be relied upon in substitution for the ex ercise of independent judgment. CS may have issued, and may in the future issue, other reports that are
inconsistent w ith, and reach different conclusions from, the information presented i n this report. Those reports reflect the different assumptions, vi ews and analytical methods of the analysts who
prepared them and CS is under no obligat ion to ensure that such other reports are brought to the attention of any recipi ent of this report.CS may, to the extent permitted by law, participate or invest in financing transactions with the issuer(s) of the securities referred to in this report, perform services for or solicit business from such
issuers, and/or have a position or holding, or other material interest, or effect transactions, in s uch securities or options thereon, or other i nvestments related thereto. In addition, i t may make markets in
the securities mentioned in the material presented in this report. CS may have, within the last three years, served as manager or co-manager of a public offering of securities for, or currently may make
a primary market i n issues of, any or all of the entities mentioned in this report or may be providing, or have provided w ithin the previous 12 months, signific ant advice or investment services in relationto the investment concerned or a related investment. Additional informati on i s, subject to duties of confidentiality, avai lable on request. Some investments referred to in this report wil l be offered solely
by a single entity and in the case of some i nvestments solely by CS, or an associate of CS or CS may be the only market m aker in such investments.
Past performance should not be taken as an indicati on or guarantee of future performance, and no representation or warranty, ex press or impl ied, is made regarding future performance. Information, opini onsand estimates contained in this report reflect a judgement at i ts original date of publication by CS and are subject to change without notice. The p rice, value of and income from any of the securities or financial
instruments mentioned in this report can fall as w ell as ris e. T he value of securities and financial instruments is subject to exchange rate fluctuation that may have a positive or adverse effect on the price or
income of such securities or financial instruments. Investors in securities such as ADRs, the values of wh ich are infl uenced by currency volatility, effectively assume this risk.
Structured securities are complex i nstruments, typicall y involve a high degree of risk and are intended for sale only to sophisti cated investors w ho are capable of understanding and assuming the risksinvolved. The market value of any structured security may be affected by changes in economic, financial and political factor s (including, but not limi ted to, spot and forward interest and ex change
rates), time to maturity, market c onditions and volatility, and the credit quality of any issuer or reference issuer. Any investor interested i n purchasing a structured product should conduct their own
investigation and analysis of the product and consult with their own professional advisers as to the risks invol ved in making such a purchase.Some investments dis cussed in this report may have a high level of volatility . High volatil ity investments may experience sudden and large falls in their value causing losses when that investment i s
realised. Those losses may equal your original investment. Indeed, in the case of some investments the potential loss es may ex ceed the amount of initial investment and, in such circumstances, you
may be required to pay more money to support those losses. Income yields from investments may fluctuate and, in consequence, initial capital paid to make the investment may be used as part of that
income yiel d. Some investments may not be readily realisable and i t may be difficul t to sell or realise those investments, simil arly it may prove difficul t for you to obtain reliable information about the
value, or risks, to which such an investment i s exposed.This report may provide the addresses of, or contain hyperlinks to, websi tes. Ex cept to the extent to which the report refers to website material of CS, CS has not reviewed any such site and takes no
responsibil ity for the content contained therein. Such address or hyperlink (including addresses or hyperlinks to CSs own w ebsite material) is provided solely for your convenience and information andthe content of any such website does not i n any way form part of this document. Accessi ng such website or followi ng such lin k through this report or CSs website shall be at your own risk .
This report is issued and distributed in Europe (except Switzerland) by Credit Suisse Securities (Europe) Li mited, One Cabot Square, London E14 4QJ, England, wh ich is regulated in the United
Kingdom by T he Financial Services Authority (F SA ). This report is being distributed i n Germany by Credit Suisse Securities (Europe) Limited Niederlassung F rankfurt am Main regulated by the
Bundesanstalt fuer Fi nanzdienstleistungsaufsicht ("BaFi n"). This report is being distributed i n the United States and Canada by Credit Sui sse Securities (USA) LLC; i n Switzerland by Credit Sui sse AG;in Brazil by Banco de Investimentos Credit Suisse (Brasil) S.A ; in Mex ico by Banco Credit Suis se (Mxi co), S.A. (transactions related to the securities mentioned i n this report wi ll only be effected in
compliance with applicable regulation); in Japan by Credit Suisse Securities (Japan) Limited, Financial Instruments F irm, Director-General of Kanto Local Fi nance Bureau (Kinsho) No. 66, a member of
Japan Securities Dealers Association, The Financial Futures Association of Japan, Japan Securities Investment Advisers Association, Type II Financial Instruments Firms Association; elsewhere inAsia/ Pacifi c by whi chever of the fol lowi ng is the appropriately authorised entity in the relevant jurisdicti on: Credit Sui ss e (Hong Kong) Limited, Credit Suisse Equities (Australia) Limited, Credit Suisse
Securities (Thailand) Limited, Credit Suis se Securities (Malaysi a) Sdn Bhd, Credit Suisse AG, Si ngapore Branch, and elsewhere in the world by the relevant authorised affil iate of the above. Research
on Taiw anese securities produced by Credit Sui sse AG, T aipei Branch has been prepared by a registered Senior Business Person. Research provided to residents of Malaysia is authorised by the Headof Research for Credit Suisse Securities (Malaysia) Sdn Bhd, to whom they should di rect any queries on +603 2723 2020.This research may not conform to Canadian disclosure requirements.
In jurisdicti ons where CS is not already registered or li censed to trade in securities, transactions wil l only be effec ted in accordance wi th applicable securities legislation, w hich will vary from jurisdiction
to jurisdicti on and may require that the trade be made in accordance with applicable ex emptions from registration or licensin g requirements. Non-U.S. customers wishi ng to effect a transaction should
contact a CS entity in their local jurisdicti on unless governing law permits otherwise. U.S. customers wi shing to effect a t ransaction should do so only by contacting a representative at Credit SuisseSecurities (USA) LLC in the U.S.
This material is not for distribution to retail cli ents and is directed ex clusiv ely at Credit Suisse's market professional an d instituti onal cli ents. Recipients who are not market professional or institutional
investor cli ents of CS should s eek the advice of their independent fi nancial advisor prior to taking any investment deci sion based on this report or for any necessary ex planation of its contents. Thisresearch may relate to investments or services of a person outside of the UK or to other matters which are not regulated by the F SA or in respect of which the protections of the FSA for private
customers and/or the UK compensation scheme may not be avail able, and further detail s as to where this may be the case are av ailable upon request in respect of this report.
CS may provide various services to US munici pal entities or obligated persons ("municipalities" ), including suggesting indivi dual transactions or trades and entering into such transactions. Any services
CS provides to municipalities are not viewed as advice within the meaning of Section 975 of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer P rotection Ac t. CS is providing any such services andrelated i nformation solely on an arms length basis and not as an advisor or fiduci ary to the municipality . In connection with the provision of the any such services, there is no agreement, direct or
indirect, between any municipali ty (including the officials, management, employees or agents thereof) and CS for CS to provid e advice to the municipality. Municipaliti es should consult with their
financial, accounting and legal advis ors regarding any such services provided by CS. In addition, CS i s not acting for direct or indirect compensation to soli cit the municipali ty on behalf of an unaffili atedbroker, dealer, munici pal securities dealer, munic ipal advisor, or investment adviser for the purpose of obtaining or retaini ng an engagement by the municipality for or in connection w ith Municipal
Financial Products, the issuance of municipal securities, or of an investment adviser to provide investment advisory services to or on behalf of the municipality.
Copyright 2012 CREDIT SUISSE AG and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Investment principal on bonds can be eroded depending on sale price or market price. In addition, there are bonds on whichinvestment principal can be eroded due to changes in redemption amounts. Care is required when investing in such instruments.When you purchase non-listed Japanese fix ed income securities (Japanese government bonds, Japanese municipal bonds, Japanese government guaranteed bonds, Japanese corporate bonds) from
CS as a seller, you will be requested to pay purchase price only.
https://www.credit-suisse.com/who_we_are/en/https://www.credit-suisse.com/who_we_are/en/https://www.credit-suisse.com/who_we_are/en/https://www.credit-suisse.com/who_we_are/en/