IEA© OECD/IEA 2018
Understanding the materials
implications of the 2°C scenarioJohn Dulac and Araceli Fernandez
Experts’ Dialogue on Material Trends in Buildings, Paris, 9 March 2018
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Buildings goes live !
Now playing in theatres near you at www.iea.org/buildings !
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IEA’s Buildings team: engagement and collaborations
Partners and initiatives
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Taking tabs: we’re not making enough progress on buildings
Despite some positive developments in the last two years,
more assertive action is still needed to put the global buildings sector on track.
Source: IEA Tracking Clean Energy Progress 2017
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Global buildings policy coverage is weak
Nearly two-thirds of buildings today still do not have comprehensive mandatory building energy codes.
Source: GABC Global Status Report 2017
Building energy codes by country, state and province, 2016-2017
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Capturing the enormous energy efficiency potential in buildings
Going from RTS to B2DS would save the equivalent of twice global energy production in 2014.
Buildings final energy consumption by scenario and fuel type
0.0
0.6
1.3
1.9
2.5
3.1
3.8
4.4
5.0
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2014 2030 2045 2060 2030 2045 2060 2030 2045 2060
RTS 2DS B2DS
MW
h p
er p
erso
n
EJ
Renewables
Commercial heat
Electricity
Natural gas
Oil
Coal
Biomass (traditional)
Energy intensity
85 GtCO2
Cumulative
60 GtCO2
cumulative
Emissions
reduction
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SBTs for buildings and construction: challenges
Boundaries for performances metrics (e.g. upstream power generation, building energy communities,
off-site renewables) are not adequately captured in performance metrics.
- 2
0
2
4
6
8
10
Gt
CO
2
Direct emissions
reduction
Envelope
improvement
Technology
performance
Technology
choice
Indirect (power)
2DS
RTS
B2DS
Key contributions to CO2 emissions reduction in buildings
Buildings
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Scope 3: buildings construction and renovation
• What are the implications of design and material choices in broader
energy/emissions portfolio?
• What role do / can buildings play in supporting economy-wide target?
• Are there strategies for building material demand intensities?
• What are opportunities for sustainable buildings (re)construction?
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IEA energy technology activities
1. Where do we need to go?
2. Where are we today?
3. How do we get there?
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The 2DS implications
Achieving the 2DS will require a significant decoupling between energy use and economic growth, with
the decarbonisation of the energy mix occurring in parallel.
0
100
200
300
400
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
Ind
ex 2
01
4 =
10
0
2DS
GDP TPED CO2
Decarbonisation
Decoupling GDPand energy
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Sustainable strategies
Optimal use of service
Energy efficiency
Technology innovation
Fuel switching
Electrifying
System-level synergies
Future materials
demand??
Technology
innovation
progress??
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Managing uncertainty: IEA project exploring 2DS What-if variants
• General principle: analysed variants should meet 2DS carbon budget and similar
annual CO2 emissions in 2060
• Specific 2DS variants
• Variant A: Limited CCS 2DS variant
• Variant B: Materials flow and efficiency 2DS variant
• Global coverage but building on regional specific analysis
• Strong engagement with international stakeholders and research institutions
• Expected launch Q1 2019
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Energy Technology Perspectives (ETP) modelling framework
End-use sectors Service demands
TIMES models
Industry
Long-term simulationBuildings
Mobility Model (MoMo)
Transport
Primary energy Conversion sectors Final energy
Electricity
Gasoline
Diesel
Natural gas
Heat
etc.
Passenger mobilityFreight transport
…
Space heatingWater heating
Lighting…
Material demands…
Renewables
Fossil
Nuclear
Electricity T&D
Fuel conversion
Fuel/heat deliveryETP-TIMES Supply model
Electricity and heat generation
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100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 … … … … … 2060
Ind
ex 1
99
4 =
10
0
Steel percapita
Cementper capita
Primaryaluminiumper capita
GDP/capita
Urbanpopulationshare
Projecting materials demand from socio-economic indicators…
a difficult question!
Global materials production and socio-economic indicators evolution
?
Key materials demand responds differently across countries to per capita income and urbanisation
trends depending on industrial structures, infrastructure development needs and other factors.
Source: USGS and Worldsteel statistic yearbooks, IMF, UNDESA databases
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Understanding existing complex supply value chains is needed…
Source: Allwood and Cullen, Sustainable Materials – Both eyes open web pres., p.7
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…but supply value chains are also continuously evolving
Source: Allwood and Cullen, Sustainable Materials – Both eyes open web pres., p.7
© OECD/IEA 2018
…and materials efficiency strategies also impact supply chains
Industry Transport Buildings Supply
Light-weighting (using less materials for
same service)
Producing less dense office paper or
lighter plastic bottles. Using less
detergent for same cleanliness level
Optimal component design strategies to reduce materials
mass for same service; more shared transport and building
services?; improved construction techniques
Optimum distribution
grids routing
Reducing yield lossesSemi-manufacturing and
manufacturing yields improvements
Extending product life time or using
products more intensively (related to users)
Longer-lasting industrial facilities
Consumer products being used for
a longer-time
Longer-lasting vehicles,
including modular designs
Longer-lasting buildings and
appliances; including modular
designs
Longer-lasting
infrastructures
Finding alternative ways of using scrap
without remelting (scrap diversion)Limited application
Others Clinker-to-cement ratio reduction
RecycleSteel, aluminium, plastics scrap
recycling
Steel, aluminium, plastics
scrap recycling
Steel, aluminium, plastics
scrap recycling
Reuse
Post-consumer scrap fed directly to
manufacturing processes. Re-use of
plastic consumer products (e.g.
bottles, packaging)
Remanufacturing; reuse/repurposing of
components (e.g., batteries)
Reusable building
components and assemblies
Reuse of components, e.g.
remanufacturing of wind
turbines
© OECD/IEA 2018
Material efficiency opens opportunities for energy and CO2 savings
Wider implementation of material efficiency strategies lead to a reduced demand of materials, as well
as to increased shares of secondary routes production in the B2DS.
Normalised global materials production to 2014 levels
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
RTS 2060 B2DS 2060 RTS 2060 B2DS 2060
Aluminium Crude steel
1 =
Mt
pro
du
ctio
n in
20
14
Secondary
Primary
© OECD/IEA 2018
Improving the analysis of future materials demand
MACRO ECONOMIC INPUTS
- GDP projection
- Population projection
MARKET DYNAMICS
- Base material production
- Material demand historical
dynamics
MATERIAL EFFICIENCY STRATEGIES
- Post-consumer scrap recycling
and reuse
- Manufacturing yields
improvement
- Clinker substitution
PRODUCTION
MODULE
MATERIAL PRODUCTION PROJECTIONS
HIGH and LOW demand variants by
SCENARIO
- Crude steel
- Cement
- Aluminium
- Ethylene, Propylene, Benzene, Toluene,
Xylene, Ammonia and Methanol
- Different types of pulp and paper
Additional insights from
bottom-up developed
material demand curves
Expand the scope of
material efficiency
strategies in materials
demand impact
NEW NEW
© OECD/IEA 2018
Leveraging knowledge and providing a platform for exchange
Material
producers
Connecting
different
supply value
chains
Material
users
Life-cycle
analysis
Material
flow
analysis
Scenario
modelling
© OECD/IEA 2018
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