IEA© OECD/IEA 2018

Understanding the materials

implications of the 2°C scenarioJohn Dulac and Araceli Fernandez

Experts’ Dialogue on Material Trends in Buildings, Paris, 9 March 2018

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Buildings goes live !

Now playing in theatres near you at www.iea.org/buildings !

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IEA’s Buildings team: engagement and collaborations

Partners and initiatives

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Taking tabs: we’re not making enough progress on buildings

Despite some positive developments in the last two years,

more assertive action is still needed to put the global buildings sector on track.

Source: IEA Tracking Clean Energy Progress 2017

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Global buildings policy coverage is weak

Nearly two-thirds of buildings today still do not have comprehensive mandatory building energy codes.

Source: GABC Global Status Report 2017

Building energy codes by country, state and province, 2016-2017

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Capturing the enormous energy efficiency potential in buildings

Going from RTS to B2DS would save the equivalent of twice global energy production in 2014.

Buildings final energy consumption by scenario and fuel type

0.0

0.6

1.3

1.9

2.5

3.1

3.8

4.4

5.0

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2014 2030 2045 2060 2030 2045 2060 2030 2045 2060

RTS 2DS B2DS

MW

h p

er p

erso

n

EJ

Renewables

Commercial heat

Electricity

Natural gas

Oil

Coal

Biomass (traditional)

Energy intensity

85 GtCO2

Cumulative

60 GtCO2

cumulative

Emissions

reduction

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SBTs for buildings and construction: challenges

Boundaries for performances metrics (e.g. upstream power generation, building energy communities,

off-site renewables) are not adequately captured in performance metrics.

- 2

0

2

4

6

8

10

Gt

CO

2

Direct emissions

reduction

Envelope

improvement

Technology

performance

Technology

choice

Indirect (power)

2DS

RTS

B2DS

Key contributions to CO2 emissions reduction in buildings

Buildings

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Scope 3: buildings construction and renovation

• What are the implications of design and material choices in broader

energy/emissions portfolio?

• What role do / can buildings play in supporting economy-wide target?

• Are there strategies for building material demand intensities?

• What are opportunities for sustainable buildings (re)construction?

© OECD/IEA 2018

IEA energy technology activities

1. Where do we need to go?

2. Where are we today?

3. How do we get there?

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The 2DS implications

Achieving the 2DS will require a significant decoupling between energy use and economic growth, with

the decarbonisation of the energy mix occurring in parallel.

0

100

200

300

400

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

Ind

ex 2

01

4 =

10

0

2DS

GDP TPED CO2

Decarbonisation

Decoupling GDPand energy

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Sustainable strategies

Optimal use of service

Energy efficiency

Technology innovation

Fuel switching

Electrifying

System-level synergies

Future materials

demand??

Technology

innovation

progress??

© OECD/IEA 2018

Managing uncertainty: IEA project exploring 2DS What-if variants

• General principle: analysed variants should meet 2DS carbon budget and similar

annual CO2 emissions in 2060

• Specific 2DS variants

• Variant A: Limited CCS 2DS variant

• Variant B: Materials flow and efficiency 2DS variant

• Global coverage but building on regional specific analysis

• Strong engagement with international stakeholders and research institutions

• Expected launch Q1 2019

© OECD/IEA 2018

Energy Technology Perspectives (ETP) modelling framework

End-use sectors Service demands

TIMES models

Industry

Long-term simulationBuildings

Mobility Model (MoMo)

Transport

Primary energy Conversion sectors Final energy

Electricity

Gasoline

Diesel

Natural gas

Heat

etc.

Passenger mobilityFreight transport

…

Space heatingWater heating

Lighting…

Material demands…

Renewables

Fossil

Nuclear

Electricity T&D

Fuel conversion

Fuel/heat deliveryETP-TIMES Supply model

Electricity and heat generation

© OECD/IEA 2018

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 … … … … … 2060

Ind

ex 1

99

4 =

10

0

Steel percapita

Cementper capita

Primaryaluminiumper capita

GDP/capita

Urbanpopulationshare

Projecting materials demand from socio-economic indicators…

a difficult question!

Global materials production and socio-economic indicators evolution

?

Key materials demand responds differently across countries to per capita income and urbanisation

trends depending on industrial structures, infrastructure development needs and other factors.

Source: USGS and Worldsteel statistic yearbooks, IMF, UNDESA databases

© OECD/IEA 2018

Understanding existing complex supply value chains is needed…

Source: Allwood and Cullen, Sustainable Materials – Both eyes open web pres., p.7

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…but supply value chains are also continuously evolving

Source: Allwood and Cullen, Sustainable Materials – Both eyes open web pres., p.7

© OECD/IEA 2018

…and materials efficiency strategies also impact supply chains

Industry Transport Buildings Supply

Light-weighting (using less materials for

same service)

Producing less dense office paper or

lighter plastic bottles. Using less

detergent for same cleanliness level

Optimal component design strategies to reduce materials

mass for same service; more shared transport and building

services?; improved construction techniques

Optimum distribution

grids routing

Reducing yield lossesSemi-manufacturing and

manufacturing yields improvements

Extending product life time or using

products more intensively (related to users)

Longer-lasting industrial facilities

Consumer products being used for

a longer-time

Longer-lasting vehicles,

including modular designs

Longer-lasting buildings and

appliances; including modular

designs

Longer-lasting

infrastructures

Finding alternative ways of using scrap

without remelting (scrap diversion)Limited application

Others Clinker-to-cement ratio reduction

RecycleSteel, aluminium, plastics scrap

recycling

Steel, aluminium, plastics

scrap recycling

Steel, aluminium, plastics

scrap recycling

Reuse

Post-consumer scrap fed directly to

manufacturing processes. Re-use of

plastic consumer products (e.g.

bottles, packaging)

Remanufacturing; reuse/repurposing of

components (e.g., batteries)

Reusable building

components and assemblies

Reuse of components, e.g.

remanufacturing of wind

turbines

© OECD/IEA 2018

Material efficiency opens opportunities for energy and CO2 savings

Wider implementation of material efficiency strategies lead to a reduced demand of materials, as well

as to increased shares of secondary routes production in the B2DS.

Normalised global materials production to 2014 levels

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

RTS 2060 B2DS 2060 RTS 2060 B2DS 2060

Aluminium Crude steel

1 =

Mt

pro

du

ctio

n in

20

14

Secondary

Primary

© OECD/IEA 2018

Improving the analysis of future materials demand

MACRO ECONOMIC INPUTS

- GDP projection

- Population projection

MARKET DYNAMICS

- Base material production

- Material demand historical

dynamics

MATERIAL EFFICIENCY STRATEGIES

- Post-consumer scrap recycling

and reuse

- Manufacturing yields

improvement

- Clinker substitution

PRODUCTION

MODULE

MATERIAL PRODUCTION PROJECTIONS

HIGH and LOW demand variants by

SCENARIO

- Crude steel

- Cement

- Aluminium

- Ethylene, Propylene, Benzene, Toluene,

Xylene, Ammonia and Methanol

- Different types of pulp and paper

Additional insights from

bottom-up developed

material demand curves

Expand the scope of

material efficiency

strategies in materials

demand impact

NEW NEW

© OECD/IEA 2018

Leveraging knowledge and providing a platform for exchange

Material

producers

Connecting

different

supply value

chains

Material

users

Life-cycle

analysis

Material

flow

analysis

Scenario

modelling

© OECD/IEA 2018

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