OCAD University Open Research RepositoryFaculty of Design
2016
Understanding bitcoin currency and
blockchain technology as a media systemPeter, Kimberley and Schaus, Michael
Suggested citation:
Peter, Kimberley and Schaus, Michael (2016) Understanding bitcoin currency and blockchain
technology as a media system. In: Relating Systems Thinking and Design Symposium (RSD), 13-
15 Oct 2016, Toronto, Canada. Available at http://openresearch.ocadu.ca/id/eprint/1940/
Open Research is a publicly accessible, curated repository for the preservation and dissemination of
scholarly and creative output of the OCAD University community. Material in Open Research is open
access and made available via the consent of the author and/or rights holder on a non-exclusive basis.
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UnderstandingBitcoinCurrencyandBlockchainTechnology
asaMediaSystem
Anintegratedsystemsandforesightmodelapproach
KimberleyPeter,MDesCandidate,StrategicForesightandInnovation,OCADUniversity
MichaelSchaus,MDesCandidate,StrategicForesightandInnovation,OCADUniversity
Abstract
ThispaperhighlightsresearchintothepeopleandcommunitiesinvolvedinBitcoin
cryptocurrencyandblockchaintechnology.ApplyingMarshallandEricMcLuhan’sLawsof
MediatetradandLanceGundersonandC.S.Holling’sPanarchyasanintegratedsystemsand
foresightmodel,thisresearchexploresthefutureofeconomicexchangeandofourfinancial
systemsinco-evolutionwiththeserevolutionaryinnovations.Buildingonareviewofthe
literatureandfieldresearchwithsubjectmatterexpertsfromToronto'sBitcoincommunity,the
authorsdevelopedaresearchframeworkandanintegratedvisualmodelformappingscenarios
andchartingsystem-levelimpactovertimethathelpsilluminatetheimpactofBitcoinasmedia
ontherealeconomy,financialservices,andtraditionalsovereigncurrency.Theresultsofthe
studyhighlighttheapplicationoftheframeworkandvisualmodelasabasisforunderstanding
phenomenon,developingscenarios,anticipatingadaptivechange,andforguidingfuturesocial
changeandinnovation.Thenarrativesthatemergedareasampleofothernarrativesthatcould
becraftedfromthemodel,usedtoguidefuturestudiesandengageaudiencediscussion.
Introduction
Inspiredbyinitialresearchintotheevolvingcomplexityofthefinancialsystem,thefutureof
opencurrencies,andthequestionofhowwemightreframemoneyasatechnologytofacilitate
andempowerthenaturalhumaninclinationtotradeandsharevalue,webecameinterestedin
thepotentialofBitcoinanditsunderlyingtechnology,blockchain,asameanstoenablingdirect
andlow-frictionexchanges.
Theideaofatechnologythatmadeitpossibletohavedirectexchangewithanotherpersonor
businesswithouttheneedforathirdparty,suchasabank;todosoacrosstransnational
borderswithoutthefinancialcostorwaittimeofthecurrentsystem;tohavecontroloverand
accesstoone’smoneyfromanywhereintheworld,atanytime;andtohavetheabilitytoeither
spendthatmoneyonline(intheformofacryptographiccurrency)ortotranslateitinto
whateverthelocalfiatcurrencyis,feltlikeatopicworthinvestigatingfurther.
ThepotentialandappealofthetechnologyisexpressedwellbyDonandAlexTapscottintheir
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bookBlockchainRevolution:HowtheTechnologyBehindBitcoinisChangingMoney,Business,and
theWorld(2016,p.28):
Imagineatechnologythatcouldpreserveourfreedomtochooseforourselvesandour
families,toexpressthesechoicesintheworld,andtocontrolourowndestiny,nomatter
wherewelivedorwereborn.Whatnewtoolsandnewjobscouldwecreatewiththose
capabilities?Whatnewbusinessandservices?Howshouldwethinkaboutthe
opportunities?Theanswerswererightinfrontofus,complimentsofSatoshiNakamoto.
SatoshiNakamotoistheelusiveauthoroftheoriginalpaper,“Bitcoin:APeer-to-PeerElectronic
CashSystem”,describinghowBitcoinallowedpeopletosendorreceivepaymentswithout
havingtoinvolveathirdparty.Thepaperalsoaddressedpreviouslyconfoundingchallenges
withcryptocurrenciesincludinghowtopreventdouble-spendingbypubliclyannouncing
transactionsandhavingasinglehistoryoftheorderoftransactionsusingatimestampserver
andproof-of-work(Nakamoto,2008)—whatcametobeknownasthe“blockchain”.
Withallthatpotential,weneededtochooseamanageablestartingpointandmadethedecision
tobeginbyunderstandingthetechnologyfromalocalcontext.
Fromlocaltoglobalcontext
Attheonsetoftheresearchproject,wesetouttodoaninitialinventoryofthecurrent
communityofinnovationaroundBitcoinandblockchaininTorontowithtwoprimary
objectivesinmind.Thefirstoftheseobjectiveswastodeepenourownlearningofsystems
mappingtechniquesbyapplyingthemtothelocalecosystem—specificallytotheevolutionand
thinkingaroundBitcoinandblockchainandhowthesemightplayoutinthefuture.This
includedtheintentiontomapthecontributorswithinthelocalcommunityandtounderstand
therelationships,influences,motivations,perspectives,andvaluesofthatcommunity.
Thesecondobjectivewastoseedfutureresearchbydevelopinganunderstandingofthe
dynamicsandinterestswithinthecommunitybeyondatechnicalfocus,andtolookfor
opportunitiestofacilitateandenablecollaborationwithinandbetweendifferentinterest
groupsandthepublic.Underlyingthisobjectivewastheassumptionthatthefocuson
technologytendedtosupersedethefocusonpublicengagement,andthatthroughenabling
broaderinteractionbetweentechnologistsandthepublictherewasanopportunitytospread
interestandadoptionofthetechnologytoaddressavarietyofneeds.
Thefollowingresearchquestionsrepresentedourentrypointfordiscovery:
Whatareinterestingdynamicswithintheindividual,group,andconceptualcomponentsof
thecommunity?
Whatinterestsareforminginthecommunitybeyondatechnicalfocus?
Wheredothesubjectmatterexpertsseethetechnologygoing?Howdotheyseethemselves
inthatfuture?Whataretheydoingtoenableit?
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WhiletheinitialboundaryofthestudywasintendedtostaywithintheTorontocommunity,
withaneyeonhowtheTorontonodesconnecttoothercommunitiesinthenationaland
internationalcontext,wequicklylearnedthatanyconversationaboutthecommunityaround
Bitcoinandblockchaincouldnotbegeographicallybound.Asaresult,thestudyshiftedto
understandingandmappinghowthecoreconcepts,andthedifferentusesandemerging
opportunitiesforthetechnologymightplayoutinthelargerfinancialsystem.Withthisshift,
ourresearchquestionrefocusedtothatsystemlevelandfedbytheideasandinsightsthatcame
fromworkingwiththeexpertsandliteratureonthetopic:
WhatmightthepotentialimpactofBitcoinandblockchainbeatdifferentlevelsofthe
financialsystem?
Fromtopictotooldiscovery
Throughouttheprocessofdiscoveryaroundthecurrencyandtechnologywemaintainedour
objectiveofdeepeningourknowledgeandpracticeofsystemstools.Thekeydifferencewasin
movingfrom‘Systemigrams’(Boardman&Sauser,2008)—andwhatmighthaveyieldedlocal
‘systemmaquettes’—totakingabeginner’smindapproachandthediscoveryofanovel
researchframeworkthatbroughttogetherMarshallandEricMcLuhan’sLawsofMediatetrad
andLanceGundersonandC.S.Holling’sPanarchyasanintegratedsystemsandforesightmodel.
Theintegrationofthesetwotoolsallowedustoexplorethefutureofeconomicexchangeandof
ourfinancialsystemsinco-evolutionwithrevolutionarytechnologies,providingasimultaneous
viewintothesystemandthefuture.
Weofferthispaperasaninitialuseoftheintegratedtoolandencourageotherstoexploreits
potentialapplicationtoothermediaandsystems.
Context
UsefulDefinitions
Thispaperdoesnotattempttoprovideanin-depthlessononmoneyorbitcoinandblockchain,
howeveritisusefultounderstandsomebasicdefinitions.
Money—Wehaveusedtheclassiceconomist’sdefinitionofmoneyasreferencedbyMarshall
VanAlstyne(2014)asourreferencefortheattributesofbitcoin.Forfulltechnicaldefinitionsof
thecomponentsofmoney,werecommendthoseprovidedbyInvestopedia.Inbrief,moneyisa
mediumofexchangeusedasanintermediaryinstrumentintradeorpurchasesbetweentwo
partieswhoacceptthemediumashavingastandardvalue.Moneyisalsoaunitofaccount,
whichrepresentsthestandardmeasurementofthemarketvalueascribedtothemediumof
exchange.Andlastly,moneyisastoreofvalue,whichmeansitcanbesavedorstoredfora
periodoftimeandretrievedforuseagainasamediumofexchange.
Thefollowingdefinitionsforbitcoinandblockchainaresummarizedfrombitcoin.org.
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Bitcoin—Whencapitalized,isusedtodescribetheconcept,protocolornetworksupporting
Bitcoin.
bitcoin—Whenusedwithoutcapitalization,isintendedtodescribethecurrencyasamedium
ofexchangeandunitofaccount.BTCandXBTareabbreviationscommonlyusedinother
sourcestorefertothecurrency.
Blockchain(orblockchain)—Isapublicrecord,orledger,ofallBitcointransactionscapturedin
thechronologicalordertheyoccur.TheblockchainissharedacrossthenetworkofBitcoinusers
andistheverificationsystemthatcaptureseachtransactionandpreventsdoublespending.
Moregenerally,blockchainalsoreferstotheuniquetechnologicalbreakthroughthatuses
cryptographyandpeer-to-peercomputingtoincentivizetheconsensusdeterminationofthe
orderinwhichdigitaltransactionsoccuronthenetwork.
ConceptualFoundations
Asastartingpoint,therearethreeconceptsthatservedasaconceptualbasisfortheproject:
moneyasatechnology,demurrageandcomplementarycurrencies.
MONEYASATECHNOLOGY
Thefirstconceptisinseeingmoneyasatechnologyandwhatitfunctionallyaccomplishesover
time,movingfrom‘good’to‘asset’.Toillustratethisconcept,wehaveidentifiedthatthe
relationshipbetweenintrinsicvalue,whichisembodiedorinherentinagood,andinstrumental
value,whichisthemediumormeans(Brennan,2002;Callicott&Frodeman,2009)usedto
purchase,orinexchangefor,agood,hastakenfourcoarsestructuresovertime.Wehaveuseda
visual‘ring’structuretoexemplifythestructureandfunctionalrelationshipofintrinsicand
instrumentalvaluewithineachhistoricaltypeofexchange,startingwithbarter,movingthrough
togoldandtheevolvinguseoffiat-basedcurrencies.
Barter—Intrinsicandinstrumentalvalueareequalandinseparable
Althoughbarterisamythinthehistoricalsense(Graeber,2012),itisusefultounderstandthe
underlyingconceptofthe‘doublecoincidenceofwants’whichrequiresthattwopartiesfind
eachotherinordertotransact(Jevons,1876).Forexample,ifpersonAhasacowandislooking
foracoupleofgoatsinexchange,personAneedstofindsomeone(personB)whohastwogoats
andsimultaneouslywantsacowinexchangeforthegoats.OncepersonAandpersonBfind
eachothertomaketheexchange,theintrinsicvalue—the‘good’—ofoneobject(thecow)is
viewedasequaltotheinstrumentalvalue—the‘mediumofexchange’—oftheotherobject(the
twogoats),andviceversaintheeyesofbothpersonsAandB.
Inthistypeoftransaction,thereisnoseparationoftheintrinsicvaluefromtheinstrumental
value.Hence,thesingleringrepresentationinFigure1.
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Figure1.Bartercanberepresentedschematicallyusingasinglering.
Gold—Intrinsicandinstrumentalvalueoverlapbutarenotequal
Whengoldwasintroducedasamediumofexchangeortokenforenablingtradeithadintrinsic
valueinitselfandcouldbeusedonitsown,oritcouldbeusedinexchangeforothergoods.
Hence,theoverlappingringsshowninFigure2.Ithadtheaddedvirtueofstabilizingcurrency
exchangerates(Godden&Wankel(ed.),2016).
Figure2.Goldasamediumofexchangeusedtoacquireothergoodsorbeagoodinitselfcanberepresented
schematicallyusingoverlappingrings.
ConvertibleFiat—Intrinsicandinstrumentalvalueareseparatedandabstracted
Whenconvertiblepapercurrenciescameintovogueintheearly1800s,althoughpeggedtogold,
thecorrelationbetweengoodandmediumusedtopurchasewasfurtherabstracted(“Fiat
money,”2016).HencetheseparationofringsshowninFigure3.Throughthisdecoupling,the
controlofthemoneysupplymovedtodecree(fiat)oftheissuingnation,andtothemonopolyof
thenationstate.
Figure3.Themovetoconvertiblefiatcanberepresentedschematicallybyseparatingtheinstrumentalfrom
theintrinsicvalueasmoneybecamefurtherabstractedfromthegoodsitwasusedtoacquire.
Fiat2.0—Instrumentalvaluesupersedesthevalueofrealgoodsandisfurtherabstracted
Fiat2.0representsfinancialderivatives,highfrequencytrading,and‘exotic’financialproducts.
Thesefinancialinstrumentsseparateandabstractfurtherawayfromintrinsicvalue.Inthe
extreme,thefocusonintermediariesremovestheneedtoevenhaverealgoodsandthe
instrumentitself—themoney—becomesthegood(Mashkov,2014,p.93).Hence,thelarge
instrumentalvalueandsmallintrinsicvalueshowninringswithinFigure4.
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Figure4.Fiat2.0canberepresentedschematicallywithinstrumentalvaluehavingmorevaluethanthevalue
onceheldbyrealgoods.
Foranyfinancialassettohavetangiblevalue,theexpectationisthatitwillbetranslatedfrom
assetbackintothetraceablegoodthatismoney,andusedintradeforrealgoods.However,
overtimetheinstrumentalvaluehasbeenusedinreplacementoftheneedforgoods,deepening
theabstractionofmoney.
Figure5.Visualsummaryofmoneyasatechnologywiththeshiftofthefunctionalrelationshipofintrinsic
valuetoinstrumentalvalueovertime.
MargaretAtwoodconveysthenegativesideofhoardingassetsinherbookPayback:Debtand
theShadowSideofWealthwhenexpressingthat“Scrooge’sbigsinwastofreezehismoney;for
money,asallstudentsofitrecognize,isofuseonlywhenit’smoving,sinceitderivesitsvalue
entirelyfromwhateveritcantranslateitselfinto.”(Atwood,2007,p.99)
DEMURRAGE
Therewasatimeinthemiddleageswhencurrencieshadanexpirydate.Ifyouheldacurrency
beyondthetimeitwasconsideredusefulyoucarriedthecostofholdingit,versusrealizingits
valuebyspendingit(LietaerandBelgin,2011).Inshort,demurrageisthecarryingcostofa
particularcurrency,anditsobsolescenceincentivizesuse.
COMPLEMENTARYCURRENCIES
Atypeofcurrencythatlendsitselfwelltokeepingmoney,andthereforevalue,inmotionisthe
complementarycurrency.Complementarycurrenciesaretypicallyusedasalternativestothe
centralizedcurrencysystem,arelocalized—eithergeographicallyorwithinanetwork—and
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serveaparticulargrouporneed,andareconvertibletofiatcurrencywhenneeded(Lietaerand
Belgin,2011;“Whymoneyisn’teverything”,2015).Theyinherentlyhaveflowormovement
associatedwiththem.
Examplesofcomplementarycurrenciesinclude:
1. FureaiKippu(pronounced‘foray-eye-keepoo’)—asectoralcurrencyinJapanusedasa
tokensystemprovidingelderlycare(Hayashi,2012)
2. BristolPound—alocalcurrencytoBristolintheUKusedasrealmoneydesignedto
supportthelocaleconomyinandaroundthecity(“BristolPound”,n.d.)
3. Bitcoin—acryptocurrencyusedacrosstheInternet
Whythesethreeconcepts?Atthecoreofourfindingsistherelationshipbetweenmoney’s
functionasagoodanditsfunctionasanasset,andhowbitcoincurrencyandblockchain
technologyhaveattributesthatexemplifyandenablekeepingvalueinmotion.Althoughbitcoin
hasbeenlaudedbysomeasastrongstoreofvalue(“Storeofvalueistheprimaryfunctionofa
currency•/r/Bitcoin,”2016;Das,2016)—asanasset—othersconsideritmoreeffectiveasa
mediumofexchange(LisaGanskyinconversationwithPaulKedrosky,2016).
Asamediumofexchange,bitcoinenablesindividualsandgroupsthatwouldnototherwisehave
accesstotheformaleconomyandbankingsystem(Leibowitz,2016).Accordingtoa2009
reportfromMcKinsey&Company,“Halftheworldisunbanked”.Addmasshumanmovementto
thispictureandconsiderthatgloballyweareexperiencingthe“biggestdisplacementofpeople
sincetheSecondWorldWar”(Hallett,2016).Thisprecarityshowstheburgeoningneedbutalso
opensopportunitiestohelppeopleandgroupsifnotparticipateintheeconomy,beabletoat
leastmovemoney.
WithinthisopportunityarethecurrentandpotentialimpactsofBitcoinandblockchain
technologyinservicetotheglobalremittancemarket—aprimechannelforkeepingmoneyand
valueinmotion,andathemethatemergedinboththesubjectmatterexpertinterviewsand
literatureinthefirstphaseoftheproject.
Inordertounderstandhowboththeneedsandtechnologiesplayoutatdifferentlevelsofthe
financialsystem,weneededtoenlisttoolsthatwouldprovideablendofmediaanalysis,
hierarchyandtime.MorefocuswillbegiventotheremittanceexamplewithintheFindingsand
Discussion.First,itisimportanttounderstandthephasesofthemethodologyandhowthetools
wereusedtosupportworkingwithresearchfindingsindifferentdimensions.
Methodology
Theresearchprocessconsistedoftwophases.
DiscoveryoftheConcepts,ContextsandAdoptionPotential
Thefirstofthesewasfocusedondiscoveryandunderstandingtheconcepts,contextsand
adoptionpotentialofthetechnologies.Thisphaseinvolvedaliteraturereviewandusingsemi-
structuredinterviewstoengagesixsubjectmatterexpertsintheTorontocommunitywhowere
workinginareasrelatedtoBitcoinandblockchain,andwhorepresentedabreadthof
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perspectivesfromtheareasoflaw,policyandcompliance,business,softwaredevelopment,
angelinvestmentanduserexperience.
DevelopmentoftheResearchFramework
Processingofthedatafromthefirstphaseinvolvedanalysingthecontentfromeachofthe
interviews,identifyingaffinitiesacrossparticipants,anddistillingacollectionofideasandcore
insightsacrosstheset.Theseinputsfedintothesecondphaseandthedevelopmentofa
researchframework,whichcameaboutthroughexperimentationwithMcLuhan’sMediaTetrad
andGundersonandHolling’sPanarchy.
ABOUTTHEMEDIATETRAD
ThetetradwasdevelopedbyMarshallMcLuhanasapedagogicaltoolforexplainingsocial
processesunderlyingadoptionofatechnologyormediumthataskedfourquestionsand
displayedthemsimultaneously,notsuccessivelyorchronologically:
1. Whatdoesthemediumenhance?
2. Whatdoesthemediummakeobsolete?
3. Whatdoesthemediumretrievethathadbeenobsolescedearlier?
4. Whatdoesthemediumreverseintowhenpushedtoextremes?
Figure6.EnhanceandRetrieveontheleftare‘figure’orforegroundelements—theycomeforwardor
advance.ReverseIntoandObsolesceontherightare‘ground’orbackgroundelements—theyretreatorfall
back.TheimageanddescriptionsarebasedonMcLuhan&McLuhan(1988).
Takingeachoftheideasdistilledfromthefirstphase,weaskedthefollowingquestionofeachof
theideasandplaceditinthecorrespondingquadrantonthetetrad:Doesthisideagesture
towardssomethingthatbitcoinand/ortheblockchainenhances,retrieves,obsolescesorreverses
into?Wefollowedthatrhythmofinquirythroughthreelevelsofthefinancialsystem:themicro
(realeconomy)level,themeso(financialservices)level,andthemacro(nationalcurrencyand
policy)level,plottingtheideaateachlevelitappliedandconsideredwhat‘strength’ithador
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mighthaveatthatlevel,where‘1’wasstrong,‘2’wasmedium,and‘3’wasweak.Ifanidea
didn’tapplytothelevelitwasnotplottedatthatlevel.
Figure7.Eachideawasassessedandplottedatthelevelsitappliedwithinthefinancialsystem.Thisimage
showstheideasassociatedwiththerealeconomylevel.
Thesimultaneousnatureofthetetradmeansitasksthateverythingberealandvalidinthe
samemoment,withoutchronologyorspecifiedtimebeyondthenow.Toaddressthequestionof
whattheimpactofthecurrencyandtechnology—bitcoinandBlockchainas‘media’—mightbe
overtime,webroughtinthepanarchymodelforunderstandingadaptivechangeincomplex
systems.
ABOUTTHEPANARCHY
GundersonandHollingadoptedtheconceptof‘panarchy’toencompassandunderstandthe
interactionsbetweenmultiplehierarchicallystructuredscalesofspace,timeandsocial
organization.Withthe“cross-scale,interdisciplinary,anddynamicnatureofthetheory…Its
essentialfocusistorationalizetheinterplaybetweenchangeandpersistence,betweenthe
predictableandunpredictable.”(GundersonandHolling,2002,p.5).
Anessentialpartofthetheoryandmodelisthefourphaseadaptivecyclebasedonresilienceand
adaptationinthenaturalenvironment.ThedescriptionsshowninFigure8wereexcerptedand
condensedfromGundersonandHolling’sdescriptionofaforest’scycle(2002,p.33-34).
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Figure8.Thefourphaseadaptivecycleasavisualframework.Eachcycle’squadrantbecomesacontainerfor
mappingconceptsandactivitiesastheyrelatetoGrowth,Conservation,CreativeDestructionand
Reorganization.TheimageanddescriptionsarebasedonGundersonandHolling(2002).
Inouruseofthepanarchymodel,weaddseasonaltimeasanextendedmetaphorforeachphase
andasreceptorsuponwhichtosequencetheideascapturedintheworkwiththetetrad.These
arereflectedineachcornerofFigure8,withthefollowingmappingtothefourphaseadaptive
cycle:
Exploitation(Growth)(r)phase=Summer
Conservation(Κ)phase=Autumn
Release(CreativeDestruction)(Ω)phase=Winter
Reorganization(α)phase=Spring
INTEGRATINGTHEMEDIATETRADANDPANARCHY
Inbringingthepanarchymodeltothecontentoutputsofthetetrad,weidentifiedtheconceptual
alignmentbetweenthefourquadrantsofbothmodels.Theconceptualbasisofreversesintoon
thetetradresonatedwiththeconceptofconservationwithinthepanarchycycle.Obsolesceson
thetetradfeltverycloseconceptuallytorelease(creativedestruction)onthepanarchy.Enhances
onthetetradconnectednaturallytogrowthonthepanarchy.Andretrievesonthetetrad
mappedwelltotheconceptofreorganizationonthepanarchy.
Tointegratemoreseamlesslybetweenthetetradandpanarchy,thisconceptualmappingledto
thenecessityofflippingthequadrantsontheleftsideofthetetrad.Enhancesmovedthebottom
leftandretrievesmovedtothetopleft(seeFigure9).Withthatflip,themappingacrossthefour
quadrantswhenthetetradisnestedwithinthepanarchybecame:
Enhances=Growth,orExploitation
ReversesInto=Conservation
Obsolesces=CreativeDestruction,orRelease
Retrieves=Reorganization
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Figure9.Forconceptualcoherencebetweenthetetradandpanarchymodels,itwasnecessarytoflipthe
elementsontheleftside.Enhancesmovedthebottomleftandretrievesmovedtothetopleft.
Flippingenhancesandretrievesmaintainsthefidelityofbothmodelsintheircombination
becausetheseareboth‘figure’(foreground)positions.Additionally,theseparationbetween
‘figure’ontheleftand‘ground’ontheright,reinforcestheideasofacurrencybehavinglikea
good(figure)andacurrencybehavinglikeanasset(ground).Addingtheseasonaldescriptors,
thefinalintegratedmodeltookthefollowingform(seeFigure10):
Enhances=Growth,orExploitation(Summer)
ReversesInto=Conservation(Autumn)
Obsolesces=CreativeDestruction,orRelease(Winter)
Retrieves=Reorganization(Spring)
Figure10.Thetetradandpanarchyasacombinedvisualframework.
Withthatstructureinplace,eachoftheideasplottedonthetetradateachlevelofthefinancial
system(fromrealeconomytofinancialservicesandnationalcurrency/policylevels)were
consideredagaininthecontextofthepanarchywiththeaddeddimensionoftimeateach
level—thehorizontalaxis—andthroughhierarchicallevelsofthesystem—theverticalaxis.
ThiswillbedescribedwithintheFindingsandDiscussion(seeFigure13).
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Findings and Discussion
Duringtheinterviewprocess,welearnedthatwhiletherewereadoptionchallenges,relatedin
largeparttothemessagingandthecontextofmessaging,somepeopleworkinginthisarea
werethinkingbeyondthetechnologytosocialchallengesofthecurrentsystem,andtowhatthe
technologycould,andinsomecasesdoes,address.
Boththeliteraturereviewandsubjectmatterexpertinterviewsplantedaseedearlyinthe
processtodiscussthecurrentandpotentialimpactsofthetechnologywithinthecontextofthe
globalmarketforremittancepayments.Thesocialmotivationsofsomecontributorsinthe
communityfurtherreinforcedtheglobalnatureoftheefforts,notablythatBitcoinand
blockchainenablebankingfortheunbankedandpartiallybanked,andforremittancepayments
acrossaglobeofmigratinghumansseekingabetterlifeforthemselvesandtheirfamilies.
KeyInsights
Theapplicationofthefindingstothemodelsisbestframedbythetwokeyinsightsthatcame
outoftheresearch.Thefirstoftheseinsightswasthattechnologyasleadinginnovationhitsup
againsttheslownessofpolicyinnovation.Earlycyclesoftechnologicaldevelopmentcanberapid.
Velocityisadvantageduntilthetechnologygetstoomuchattention,thenthepushforregulation
slowsitdown.Whereoncetherewasvalueinmotion,andfreedomforthecreators,thereis
nowcontrolfromexternalpartiesandeverythingslowsdown.Whenpolicytakesover,
ownershipcanshift,andittendstofavourincumbents.Thisisnotanewphenomenon.Itwas
documentedin1970byHasanÖzbekhaninareportonthePredicamentofMankindtotheClub
ofRomeasoneofthe49ContinuousCriticalProblems.
Thesecondinsightisthatsomeindividualsorgroupsareearlyadoptersoutofnecessity.Learning
abouttheuseofbitcoinforremittancepaymentsbetweenmigrantworkersandtheirlovedones
backhomewasabigillumination.Theremittancemarketishuge.Itisintegratedintonational
policies.Itcompeteswithinternationalaidasoneofthelargestinflowstodevelopingcountries.
Andthefragmentedexistenceofmigrantworkersmakesthemasoft-targetforpricegouging.
UsingbitcoinreducesthehighcostofusingWesternUnionandthebanks.Italsoreducesthe
frictionofsendingmoneywhenthesethirdpartiescutout.
KeyIdeasandHowTheyMappedtotheMediaTetrad
Whiletherewereseveralideasthatcameoutofthefirstphaseofresearch—and,asdescribedin
Methodologysection,wemappedallofthemtothetetradusingafour-questioninquirythrough
threelevelsofthefinancialsystem—wewilllimitthefocustoeightkeyideasonlyandtohow
eachmappedtothequestionsposedbythetetrad.Thefollowingeightideasflowinto,and
emergedfrom,thenarrativeprototypingphasewiththehybridmodel.Asaresult,notallthe
ideasarevisuallyhighlightedinthetetrad(seeFigure11).
Doesthisideagesturetowardssomethingthatbitcoin/blockchainOBSOLESCES?
Idea1:Needforthirdpartiesintransactionalrelationshipsgesturestothetechnology’s
potentialtoobsolescethecurrentfinancialstructures,includingremittance.Atthe
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widerblockchainlevel,theideapointstoobsolescenceofotherinstitutionswithin
existingstructuresandsystemsthatprimarilyserveanintermediaryfunctionwitha
centralizedandhierarchicalstructure,e.g.,insuranceorlicensing.
Doesthisideagesturetowardssomethingthatbitcoin/blockchainRETRIEVES?
Idea2:Increasedintimacyoftransactionsmappedwelltotheretrievesquadrantofthe
tetradbecausetheperson-to-personnatureofthetransaction,facilitatedandwitnessed
byothersinthesamenetwork,harkenstoqualitiesoftransactionsfromthepast.
Idea3:Anonymity(pseudonymity)ofpersonaltransactions.Transactionswithinthe
Bitcoinblockchain,andpotentiallyotherblockchains,movefromonecryptographickey
(analogoustoanemailaddress)toanother,andnotfrompersonalidentifiertopersonal
identifier.Asaresult,theyareanonymouswithinthenetwork.Moreaptly,theyare
pseudonymousbecauseitispossibletoassociatethepublickeyaspectofatransaction
toanIPaddressfromwhichanidentitycouldbedetermined.Thisisrelatedtothe
intimacyoftransactionsasitretrievesa‘betweenus’qualitytothetransaction.
Idea4:Upsideofbarter(trustcontainedwithintransaction)speakstothetechnology’s
uniqueabilitytoreorientthepositionofwheretrustisinthetransaction.Atransaction
facilitatedbyabankputsthetrustinthehandsofthebank.Trustina
bitcoin/blockchaintransactionis,toagreaterdegree,withintheactualtransaction
betweentwopartiesandsupportedbythetrusteachhasinthedecentralizedrecordof
theblockchainnetwork.
Doesthisideagesturetowardssomethingthatbitcoin/blockchainENHANCES?
Idea5:Currencywithoutborderswasconsideredtoenhancethefluidityandreliabilityof
transactionsbecauseitallowsmoneytoflowinternationallyatlittleornocost.Itcanbe
transferredtoanylocalityviainternetprotocol.
Idea6:Ownershipofmoneywasalsoconsideredtoenhancebyincreasingthesenseof
connectionandsovereigntyoveraccesstoone’swealth.Aslongasabitcoinholder
knowstheirpersonalcryptographickeysandhasaninternetconnection,thetechnology
allowsdirectaccesstoallofone’swealth.Theresearchshowedthatwithnoother
intermediaryinplay,agreatersenseofownershiptothoseholdingwealthwithbitcoin.
Doesthisideagesturetowardssomethingthatbitcoin/blockchainREVERSESINTO?
Idea7:Assetonlyusedasa‘flighttosafety’andnotasagood(mediumofexchange).The
morepeopleusingbitcoin,thegreateritsvalue,thatvaluemeasuredintheupward
trajectoryoftheprice.Withhigherprices,bitcoinreversesintoasset-likebehavior
offeringaflighttosafetyforthoseholdingvalueinotherinstrumentssuchasUSdollars,
orgovernmentbonds.
Idea8:Startupculturearoundbitcoinasaremittancetoolgesturestowardswhatthis
technologyreversesintoastherestartstobesomeentrenchmentandorganization
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aroundhowthetechnologyisdeliveringvalue.ThisideaisnotinFigure11below,itwas
onefromthediscoverphasethatwerevisitedandincludedinthisquadrant
retroactivelyasweprototypednarrativedevelopmentwiththehybridmodel(see
PrototypingNarrativesbelow).
Thesimultaneityinherenttothismodelwasbothchallengingandexhilaratingtoworkwith.
Theexperienceisoneofengagingdeeplyintotheambiguityofaparticularmoment,outsidethe
thelinearjuxtapositionsandsensemakingthatsounconsciouslycomewithatimeframe.This
effectofsimultaneityloadedonemomentwithmultipletruths,leadingtoanaturalinclination
toconsiderhowtheseimpacts,these“mediaeffects”,mayplayoutovertime.Thepurposeof
usingthepanarchymodelatthispointwastomakesenseofhowtheseideasmighttriggera
subsequenteffect—orperhapsmoreinterestingly,anantecedentcause—withinatimeframe.
Figure11.Ideasmappedontothemediatetradwithresonantideas,basedontheratingsforstrength,
highlightedineachquadrant.
PrototypingNarrativesOverTimeWiththePanarchyModel
Addingtheelementoftimeandthedynamicsofthelargerfinancialsystem,weintroducethe
integratedtetrad-panarchymodelasatooltoseedscenarios.Theaboveideasmappedtothe
tetradbecometheanchorsinanarrativeframedbythehybridmodel’sseasonalsequence.To
groundthisinarealworldexample,weusedtheideasassequentialelementstotellthe
remittancemarketstorythatisalreadyoccurring.Thestoryofremittanceprovidesawayto
describehowthemodelcouldbeusedtounderstandanexistingsystemwithaneyeon
generatingnewfuturenarratives.
REMITTANCENARRATIVEATTHEMICROLEVEL
AtthisfirstormicrolevelofthemodelistheRealEconomyrepresentingtheactualandtangible
tasks,behaviours,entities,andinteractions,thatareinvolvedforapersonremittingapayment
fromonecountrytoanother.
15
Thereisahugeglobalmarketforremittance.Themarketbringsinover500billiondollarsa
year(Buenaventura,2016)anditslargestplayer,WesternUnion,chargesbetween8%and20%
tomaketransfers(Chan,2015).Thebitcoinblockchainhasbeenappliedinthisspaceandoffers
savingsandexpediencytocurrentusersofotherremittanceofferings.Whatfollowsisa
narrativedescriptionoftheideasontherealeconomylevelastheywouldplayoutoverthe
seasonaltimeframeprovidedbythepanarchy(seeFigure12).
Figure12.Selectedideasastheyrelatetoremittanceandmappedintotheintegratedmodelatthemicro,real
economy,level.
Enhances/Growth(Summer)
Idea5:Currencywithoutborders—Today,partofBitcoin’s$800(USD)price(asofthiswriting)
derivesitsvaluefromitsfunctionasacomplementarycurrency,withanincreasingabilitytobe
movedquicklyandoverbordersusingtheInternetProtocolandthentradedintothefiat
currencyofanyparticularlocality.Withinthecontextoftheremittancemarket,weseemigrant
workersusingbitcoinsometimesviaaremittancestartupandsometimesthemselvesusing
Bitcoinasawaytosendmoneybackhomeforlittleornocost.
Idea6:Ownershipofmoney—Foracustomerintheremittancemarkettoparticipateinusing
bitcoinasatransfertool,thereisnecessarilyapointinthatprocesswherethemoneytheywant
tosendwillbedenominatedinbitcoin.Evenifthisisashorttimeframe,theconnectiontoone’s
moneyprovidesagreaterdegreeofagencyandcontrolfortheremittancemarketcustomer,
oftenamigrantworkersendingwageshome.
Idea8:Startupculturearoundnewremittanceservices—Asthetechnologystartstobeusedand
theenhancementitprovidesbeginstodelivervaluetomigrantworkersandthepeoplethey
transfermoneyto,theenhancementreversesintoastartupculturearoundthisspecific
function.Thismaybeevidencedbynewstartupentitiesdeliveringservicesandresourcesfor
howbitcoinworks.Essentially,weseeaninitialiterationofanewremittancemarketmaturity
asnoticeablenumbersofpeoplebegintoactuallyusethesenewwaystoremit.
16
Obsolesces/CreativeDestruction(Winter)
Idea1:Reducedneedforthirdpartyintermediaries—Thisemergingstartupcultureleadstoan
obsolescingofthecurrentwaysinwhichmoneyistransferredbackhome.Atthisfirst
revolutionaroundtheloop,wewouldnotexpecttoseeacollapseofWesternUnion,andinfact
theyremainthelargestcompanyintheremittancespace.Thisfirstroundofobsolescencehas
manifestedastheshiftingofsomecustomersfromWesternUnionovertobitcoinasatransfer
tool,andWesternUnionremainingsecureandconfidentintheirproductoffering.Wewillsee
moreofhowthatplaysoutaswemovethroughthemesoandmacrolevelstofollow.
Retrieves/Reorganization(Spring)
Idea2:Increasedintimacyoftransactions—Inthespacecreatedfromaninitialobsolescingof
thecurrentremittanceserviceproviders,weseegreaterintimacyoftransactionsplayoutasthe
migrantworkersusedirectperson-to-persontransactionstosendmoneyhome.
Idea3:Anonymity(pseudonymity)ofpersonaltransactions—Theideaofamigrantworker
sendingmoneydirectlyhomewithouttheinvolvementofacentralizedplatformthatwould
necessarilybepartytothetransaction,meansthatthetransactionisnotonlyintimate,between
onlythetwoparties,butisalsoessentiallyanonymous.Withoutthethirdpartyplatform,what
ismoretangiblyretrievedisthe8-20%oftheremittedwagesthatgotoathirdparty
intermediaryforenablingthetransactionbyprovidingthetrustedplatform.Withthetrust
providedbytheblockchainnetwork,themigrantworkerretrieveswhatheorshewouldpay
fromwagesinordertomakeatransfer.Thisretrievalmightbesignificantenoughtoclarifyand
acceleratetheintentionsofmigrantworkers,whatevertheyhappentobe:tobereunited,to
movetothemiddleclass,toprovide,ortoprogress.
BacktoEnhances/Growth(NextSummer)
Returningtothebottomleftquadrant,weseeanotheriterationoftheideassituatedinthose
quadrants(andperhapstheemergenceofnewideas).Forexample,currencywithoutbordersis
furtherandmoredeeplyenhancedasmorepeoplehavetheexperienceofusingitandthe
degreetowhichtheoutcomesarebeneficialtothem,withintheremittancemarketandbeyond.
REMITTANCENARRATIVEATTHEMESOANDMACROLEVELS
AtthemiddleormesolevelofthemodelistheFinancialServiceslayerofthesystem.Inthe
contextofremittance,thislevelwouldcurrentlyincludewhereWesternUnionandits
competitorsoperate,theirpolicies,theirdaytodayoperationsandrelationshipstobanks,
governmentpolicy,andcustomers.
AtthetopormacrolevelofthemodelistheNationalCurrencyorGovernmentlayerofthe
system.Thiswouldincludetheelementsrelatedtohowthegovernmentofanationinteracts
withthedynamicsarounditscitizenssendingmoneybackhomefromabroad.
Toextendthemicronarrativetothemesoandmacrolevels,weusedaspecificrealworld
exampletoillustratehowthemodelmightservetobuildnewordescribeexistingnarratives
throughtheverticallevelsofthesystem.
17
Nigeriahas21millionpeopleinthediaspora,manyaresendingmoneyhometofriendsand
family(Fawehinmi,2016).Inrecentyears,theyhavebeguntousenewmodesoftransfer
enabledbybitcoin,aswellasotherdigitalalternatives.Thesemodesareworkingandpeople
likethemalot—itmeansfewerpeopleareusingWesternUnionandotherincumbents.This
narrativeisdepictedintheabovejourneythroughtherealeconomylevel.
Ascustomerswanttousebitcoinandrelatedofferingsmoreonthismicrolevel,weseean
increaseinthespeedandintensitythroughthefourquadrantsoftherealeconomyadaptive
loop.Thepanarchymodeldescribesthatwhenthemicroloopreachesalevelofhighintensity,
thereisa‘revolt’(“Panarchy”,2016)fromthegrowth/enhancesquadrantonthemicrolevelup
totheconservation/reversesquadrantonthefinancialserviceslevel(seeFigure13).Inthis
example,wecoulddescribethisnarrativelyasnewstartupsprovidingnewservicesthatare
nowinvisiblecompetitionwithsimilarfunctionalofferingsatthefinancialserviceslevel.Said
anotherway,therevolthappenswhenbitcoinasalowtonocostalternativetoremitreachesa
criticalmassofcustomers,andisthereforeseenonthefinancialserviceslevelasaviable
alternative,andthreat,tothecurrentofferings.
Fromthenationallevelthepanarchydescribesthephenomenonof‘remember’(“Panarchy”,
2016)wherethemacrolevelofasystemwillrespondtorebalanceachangingsystem,moving
fromtheconservation/reversesquadrantatthetopleveldowntothereorganization/retrieves
quadrantonthemesolevel.Thenarrativeofwhatactuallyhappenedseemstofitwellintothe
dynamicsdescribedbythemodel.TheCentralBankofNigeriainJuly2016imposedapolicy
thatrequiresthoseofferingremittalservicestohavea1billiondollarmarketcapandhave
officesin20countries(Fawehinmi,2016).Thisisthesystem,fromthetop,invokingremember
inaparticularlyovertandbrazenway.Onlyonecompany,WesternUnion,wouldbeableto
complywiththelegislation,soitisveryobviousthesignalbeingtriggered:torememberthe
current,andincumbent,offerings.
Thetwokeyinsightsintroducedearlier—thattechnologyasleadinginnovationhitsupagainst
theslownessofpolicyinnovation,andthatsomeindividualsorgroupsareearlyadoptersoutof
necessity—areatthecoreofthisnarrative.InthecaseofNigeria,thetechnologyisnotsimply
‘hittingupagainst’,butwiththebrazennessofthepolicyitwouldseemtobeaggressivelybeing
shovedback.Thehigherlevelofsystemissaying‘remember’tothe‘revolt’fromthereal
economylevel.Andformigrantworkersspendinglargeamountsjusttosendthosewageshome
actoutofnecessity,onthemicrolevel,toensuretheireffortsabroadarenotinvain.
18
Figure13.Themicro,mesoandmacrolevelsofthehybridmodeldescribingtherevoltandremember
dynamicsoftheNigerianremittanceindustry.
Conclusion
Ourprojectbeganwithanobjectivetomapthelocalcommunityofbitcoinandthenshifted
focustopursueanunderstandingandmappinghowthecoreconceptsandthedifferentuses
andemergingopportunitiesforthetechnologymightplayoutinthelargerfinancialsystem.In
conclusionwerevisittheresearchquestion:
WhatmightthepotentialimpactofBitcoinandblockchainbeatdifferentlevelsofthefinancial
system?
Whatemergedinourprojecttoanswerthisquestionwasthedevelopmentofaframeworkand
methodologyintoahybridmodelthatcombinesthesimultaneityofMcLuhan’sMediaTetrad
withtheseasonaltimeframeinGundersonandHolling’sPanarchymodel.
Oneofthebenefitsofusingthetetradanddoingtheanalysisatdifferentlevelsofasystemisthe
aggregateemergence.Thesimultaneityofthetetradenabledseeingconnectionsoutsideofa
timeframeofalltheideasgeneratedfromtheliteraturereview,theprocessedinterviews,our
conversationswitheachotherandwithouradvisor,PeterJones.
19
Thebenefitwefoundinusingthepanarchywasthentotakethoseemergentideasthroughtime
horizontallythroughoneleveloftheadaptivecycle,andverticallythroughmultiplelevelsof
systems(micro,mesoandmacro).
Thecontentandinsightsgeneratedfromthemodelthatemergedopenedthedoortofuture
studyinthearenaofremittance.Intheremittancedynamicdepictedinthenarrative,itis
currentlynecessarytoconvertbitcointolocalfiatcurrencytorealizethevalueasagood.The
moreonecanactuallyspendbitcoinonlinetogetthelocalgoodsoneneedsorwants,theless
oneneedstorealizeitsvalueasagoodthroughlocalfiat.Weseethisdynamicasajumpingoff
pointforfurtherstudy.ItispossiblethatthisalreadysustainableapplicationofBitcoincouldbe
theentrypointforBitcoin’spotentialtobanktheunbankedtowardstheemergenceofa‘digital
middleclass’.
Weofferthisasafirstuseofanascentintegratedmodelandwouldencourageotherstotrythe
approach.Wewouldbedelightedtohearaboutanyofthesefurtherexperiments.
Contact
KimberleyPeter([email protected])
MichaelSchaus([email protected])
Acknowledgements
WewishtothankDr.PeterJones,AssociateProfessoratFacultyofDesignatOCADUniversity,
forhisadvisoryroleonthisresearchproject.Dr.Jonesplayedacriticalandcatalyticroleinthe
toolsexplorationandinbroadeningourthinkingaboutcurrencies.
Wearealsoindebtedtothesixsubjectmatterexpertswhogaveustheirtimeforinterviewsand
providedvaluablesourcematerialandinspirationforexploringtheconceptsingreaterdepth.
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