OCAD University Open Research RepositoryFaculty of Design

2016

Understanding bitcoin currency and

blockchain technology as a media systemPeter, Kimberley and Schaus, Michael

Suggested citation:

Peter, Kimberley and Schaus, Michael (2016) Understanding bitcoin currency and blockchain

technology as a media system. In: Relating Systems Thinking and Design Symposium (RSD), 13-

15 Oct 2016, Toronto, Canada. Available at http://openresearch.ocadu.ca/id/eprint/1940/

Open Research is a publicly accessible, curated repository for the preservation and dissemination of

scholarly and creative output of the OCAD University community. Material in Open Research is open

access and made available via the consent of the author and/or rights holder on a non-exclusive basis.

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UnderstandingBitcoinCurrencyandBlockchainTechnology

asaMediaSystem

Anintegratedsystemsandforesightmodelapproach

KimberleyPeter,MDesCandidate,StrategicForesightandInnovation,OCADUniversity

MichaelSchaus,MDesCandidate,StrategicForesightandInnovation,OCADUniversity

Abstract

ThispaperhighlightsresearchintothepeopleandcommunitiesinvolvedinBitcoin

cryptocurrencyandblockchaintechnology.ApplyingMarshallandEricMcLuhan’sLawsof

MediatetradandLanceGundersonandC.S.Holling’sPanarchyasanintegratedsystemsand

foresightmodel,thisresearchexploresthefutureofeconomicexchangeandofourfinancial

systemsinco-evolutionwiththeserevolutionaryinnovations.Buildingonareviewofthe

literatureandfieldresearchwithsubjectmatterexpertsfromToronto'sBitcoincommunity,the

authorsdevelopedaresearchframeworkandanintegratedvisualmodelformappingscenarios

andchartingsystem-levelimpactovertimethathelpsilluminatetheimpactofBitcoinasmedia

ontherealeconomy,financialservices,andtraditionalsovereigncurrency.Theresultsofthe

studyhighlighttheapplicationoftheframeworkandvisualmodelasabasisforunderstanding

phenomenon,developingscenarios,anticipatingadaptivechange,andforguidingfuturesocial

changeandinnovation.Thenarrativesthatemergedareasampleofothernarrativesthatcould

becraftedfromthemodel,usedtoguidefuturestudiesandengageaudiencediscussion.

Introduction

Inspiredbyinitialresearchintotheevolvingcomplexityofthefinancialsystem,thefutureof

opencurrencies,andthequestionofhowwemightreframemoneyasatechnologytofacilitate

andempowerthenaturalhumaninclinationtotradeandsharevalue,webecameinterestedin

thepotentialofBitcoinanditsunderlyingtechnology,blockchain,asameanstoenablingdirect

andlow-frictionexchanges.

Theideaofatechnologythatmadeitpossibletohavedirectexchangewithanotherpersonor

businesswithouttheneedforathirdparty,suchasabank;todosoacrosstransnational

borderswithoutthefinancialcostorwaittimeofthecurrentsystem;tohavecontroloverand

accesstoone’smoneyfromanywhereintheworld,atanytime;andtohavetheabilitytoeither

spendthatmoneyonline(intheformofacryptographiccurrency)ortotranslateitinto

whateverthelocalfiatcurrencyis,feltlikeatopicworthinvestigatingfurther.

ThepotentialandappealofthetechnologyisexpressedwellbyDonandAlexTapscottintheir

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bookBlockchainRevolution:HowtheTechnologyBehindBitcoinisChangingMoney,Business,and

theWorld(2016,p.28):

Imagineatechnologythatcouldpreserveourfreedomtochooseforourselvesandour

families,toexpressthesechoicesintheworld,andtocontrolourowndestiny,nomatter

wherewelivedorwereborn.Whatnewtoolsandnewjobscouldwecreatewiththose

capabilities?Whatnewbusinessandservices?Howshouldwethinkaboutthe

opportunities?Theanswerswererightinfrontofus,complimentsofSatoshiNakamoto.

SatoshiNakamotoistheelusiveauthoroftheoriginalpaper,“Bitcoin:APeer-to-PeerElectronic

CashSystem”,describinghowBitcoinallowedpeopletosendorreceivepaymentswithout

havingtoinvolveathirdparty.Thepaperalsoaddressedpreviouslyconfoundingchallenges

withcryptocurrenciesincludinghowtopreventdouble-spendingbypubliclyannouncing

transactionsandhavingasinglehistoryoftheorderoftransactionsusingatimestampserver

andproof-of-work(Nakamoto,2008)—whatcametobeknownasthe“blockchain”.

Withallthatpotential,weneededtochooseamanageablestartingpointandmadethedecision

tobeginbyunderstandingthetechnologyfromalocalcontext.

Fromlocaltoglobalcontext

Attheonsetoftheresearchproject,wesetouttodoaninitialinventoryofthecurrent

communityofinnovationaroundBitcoinandblockchaininTorontowithtwoprimary

objectivesinmind.Thefirstoftheseobjectiveswastodeepenourownlearningofsystems

mappingtechniquesbyapplyingthemtothelocalecosystem—specificallytotheevolutionand

thinkingaroundBitcoinandblockchainandhowthesemightplayoutinthefuture.This

includedtheintentiontomapthecontributorswithinthelocalcommunityandtounderstand

therelationships,influences,motivations,perspectives,andvaluesofthatcommunity.

Thesecondobjectivewastoseedfutureresearchbydevelopinganunderstandingofthe

dynamicsandinterestswithinthecommunitybeyondatechnicalfocus,andtolookfor

opportunitiestofacilitateandenablecollaborationwithinandbetweendifferentinterest

groupsandthepublic.Underlyingthisobjectivewastheassumptionthatthefocuson

technologytendedtosupersedethefocusonpublicengagement,andthatthroughenabling

broaderinteractionbetweentechnologistsandthepublictherewasanopportunitytospread

interestandadoptionofthetechnologytoaddressavarietyofneeds.

Thefollowingresearchquestionsrepresentedourentrypointfordiscovery:

Whatareinterestingdynamicswithintheindividual,group,andconceptualcomponentsof

thecommunity?

Whatinterestsareforminginthecommunitybeyondatechnicalfocus?

Wheredothesubjectmatterexpertsseethetechnologygoing?Howdotheyseethemselves

inthatfuture?Whataretheydoingtoenableit?

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WhiletheinitialboundaryofthestudywasintendedtostaywithintheTorontocommunity,

withaneyeonhowtheTorontonodesconnecttoothercommunitiesinthenationaland

internationalcontext,wequicklylearnedthatanyconversationaboutthecommunityaround

Bitcoinandblockchaincouldnotbegeographicallybound.Asaresult,thestudyshiftedto

understandingandmappinghowthecoreconcepts,andthedifferentusesandemerging

opportunitiesforthetechnologymightplayoutinthelargerfinancialsystem.Withthisshift,

ourresearchquestionrefocusedtothatsystemlevelandfedbytheideasandinsightsthatcame

fromworkingwiththeexpertsandliteratureonthetopic:

WhatmightthepotentialimpactofBitcoinandblockchainbeatdifferentlevelsofthe

financialsystem?

Fromtopictotooldiscovery

Throughouttheprocessofdiscoveryaroundthecurrencyandtechnologywemaintainedour

objectiveofdeepeningourknowledgeandpracticeofsystemstools.Thekeydifferencewasin

movingfrom‘Systemigrams’(Boardman&Sauser,2008)—andwhatmighthaveyieldedlocal

‘systemmaquettes’—totakingabeginner’smindapproachandthediscoveryofanovel

researchframeworkthatbroughttogetherMarshallandEricMcLuhan’sLawsofMediatetrad

andLanceGundersonandC.S.Holling’sPanarchyasanintegratedsystemsandforesightmodel.

Theintegrationofthesetwotoolsallowedustoexplorethefutureofeconomicexchangeandof

ourfinancialsystemsinco-evolutionwithrevolutionarytechnologies,providingasimultaneous

viewintothesystemandthefuture.

Weofferthispaperasaninitialuseoftheintegratedtoolandencourageotherstoexploreits

potentialapplicationtoothermediaandsystems.

Context

UsefulDefinitions

Thispaperdoesnotattempttoprovideanin-depthlessononmoneyorbitcoinandblockchain,

howeveritisusefultounderstandsomebasicdefinitions.

Money—Wehaveusedtheclassiceconomist’sdefinitionofmoneyasreferencedbyMarshall

VanAlstyne(2014)asourreferencefortheattributesofbitcoin.Forfulltechnicaldefinitionsof

thecomponentsofmoney,werecommendthoseprovidedbyInvestopedia.Inbrief,moneyisa

mediumofexchangeusedasanintermediaryinstrumentintradeorpurchasesbetweentwo

partieswhoacceptthemediumashavingastandardvalue.Moneyisalsoaunitofaccount,

whichrepresentsthestandardmeasurementofthemarketvalueascribedtothemediumof

exchange.Andlastly,moneyisastoreofvalue,whichmeansitcanbesavedorstoredfora

periodoftimeandretrievedforuseagainasamediumofexchange.

Thefollowingdefinitionsforbitcoinandblockchainaresummarizedfrombitcoin.org.

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Bitcoin—Whencapitalized,isusedtodescribetheconcept,protocolornetworksupporting

Bitcoin.

bitcoin—Whenusedwithoutcapitalization,isintendedtodescribethecurrencyasamedium

ofexchangeandunitofaccount.BTCandXBTareabbreviationscommonlyusedinother

sourcestorefertothecurrency.

Blockchain(orblockchain)—Isapublicrecord,orledger,ofallBitcointransactionscapturedin

thechronologicalordertheyoccur.TheblockchainissharedacrossthenetworkofBitcoinusers

andistheverificationsystemthatcaptureseachtransactionandpreventsdoublespending.

Moregenerally,blockchainalsoreferstotheuniquetechnologicalbreakthroughthatuses

cryptographyandpeer-to-peercomputingtoincentivizetheconsensusdeterminationofthe

orderinwhichdigitaltransactionsoccuronthenetwork.

ConceptualFoundations

Asastartingpoint,therearethreeconceptsthatservedasaconceptualbasisfortheproject:

moneyasatechnology,demurrageandcomplementarycurrencies.

MONEYASATECHNOLOGY

Thefirstconceptisinseeingmoneyasatechnologyandwhatitfunctionallyaccomplishesover

time,movingfrom‘good’to‘asset’.Toillustratethisconcept,wehaveidentifiedthatthe

relationshipbetweenintrinsicvalue,whichisembodiedorinherentinagood,andinstrumental

value,whichisthemediumormeans(Brennan,2002;Callicott&Frodeman,2009)usedto

purchase,orinexchangefor,agood,hastakenfourcoarsestructuresovertime.Wehaveuseda

visual‘ring’structuretoexemplifythestructureandfunctionalrelationshipofintrinsicand

instrumentalvaluewithineachhistoricaltypeofexchange,startingwithbarter,movingthrough

togoldandtheevolvinguseoffiat-basedcurrencies.

Barter—Intrinsicandinstrumentalvalueareequalandinseparable

Althoughbarterisamythinthehistoricalsense(Graeber,2012),itisusefultounderstandthe

underlyingconceptofthe‘doublecoincidenceofwants’whichrequiresthattwopartiesfind

eachotherinordertotransact(Jevons,1876).Forexample,ifpersonAhasacowandislooking

foracoupleofgoatsinexchange,personAneedstofindsomeone(personB)whohastwogoats

andsimultaneouslywantsacowinexchangeforthegoats.OncepersonAandpersonBfind

eachothertomaketheexchange,theintrinsicvalue—the‘good’—ofoneobject(thecow)is

viewedasequaltotheinstrumentalvalue—the‘mediumofexchange’—oftheotherobject(the

twogoats),andviceversaintheeyesofbothpersonsAandB.

Inthistypeoftransaction,thereisnoseparationoftheintrinsicvaluefromtheinstrumental

value.Hence,thesingleringrepresentationinFigure1.

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Figure1.Bartercanberepresentedschematicallyusingasinglering.

Gold—Intrinsicandinstrumentalvalueoverlapbutarenotequal

Whengoldwasintroducedasamediumofexchangeortokenforenablingtradeithadintrinsic

valueinitselfandcouldbeusedonitsown,oritcouldbeusedinexchangeforothergoods.

Hence,theoverlappingringsshowninFigure2.Ithadtheaddedvirtueofstabilizingcurrency

exchangerates(Godden&Wankel(ed.),2016).

Figure2.Goldasamediumofexchangeusedtoacquireothergoodsorbeagoodinitselfcanberepresented

schematicallyusingoverlappingrings.

ConvertibleFiat—Intrinsicandinstrumentalvalueareseparatedandabstracted

Whenconvertiblepapercurrenciescameintovogueintheearly1800s,althoughpeggedtogold,

thecorrelationbetweengoodandmediumusedtopurchasewasfurtherabstracted(“Fiat

money,”2016).HencetheseparationofringsshowninFigure3.Throughthisdecoupling,the

controlofthemoneysupplymovedtodecree(fiat)oftheissuingnation,andtothemonopolyof

thenationstate.

Figure3.Themovetoconvertiblefiatcanberepresentedschematicallybyseparatingtheinstrumentalfrom

theintrinsicvalueasmoneybecamefurtherabstractedfromthegoodsitwasusedtoacquire.

Fiat2.0—Instrumentalvaluesupersedesthevalueofrealgoodsandisfurtherabstracted

Fiat2.0representsfinancialderivatives,highfrequencytrading,and‘exotic’financialproducts.

Thesefinancialinstrumentsseparateandabstractfurtherawayfromintrinsicvalue.Inthe

extreme,thefocusonintermediariesremovestheneedtoevenhaverealgoodsandthe

instrumentitself—themoney—becomesthegood(Mashkov,2014,p.93).Hence,thelarge

instrumentalvalueandsmallintrinsicvalueshowninringswithinFigure4.

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Figure4.Fiat2.0canberepresentedschematicallywithinstrumentalvaluehavingmorevaluethanthevalue

onceheldbyrealgoods.

Foranyfinancialassettohavetangiblevalue,theexpectationisthatitwillbetranslatedfrom

assetbackintothetraceablegoodthatismoney,andusedintradeforrealgoods.However,

overtimetheinstrumentalvaluehasbeenusedinreplacementoftheneedforgoods,deepening

theabstractionofmoney.

Figure5.Visualsummaryofmoneyasatechnologywiththeshiftofthefunctionalrelationshipofintrinsic

valuetoinstrumentalvalueovertime.

MargaretAtwoodconveysthenegativesideofhoardingassetsinherbookPayback:Debtand

theShadowSideofWealthwhenexpressingthat“Scrooge’sbigsinwastofreezehismoney;for

money,asallstudentsofitrecognize,isofuseonlywhenit’smoving,sinceitderivesitsvalue

entirelyfromwhateveritcantranslateitselfinto.”(Atwood,2007,p.99)

DEMURRAGE

Therewasatimeinthemiddleageswhencurrencieshadanexpirydate.Ifyouheldacurrency

beyondthetimeitwasconsideredusefulyoucarriedthecostofholdingit,versusrealizingits

valuebyspendingit(LietaerandBelgin,2011).Inshort,demurrageisthecarryingcostofa

particularcurrency,anditsobsolescenceincentivizesuse.

COMPLEMENTARYCURRENCIES

Atypeofcurrencythatlendsitselfwelltokeepingmoney,andthereforevalue,inmotionisthe

complementarycurrency.Complementarycurrenciesaretypicallyusedasalternativestothe

centralizedcurrencysystem,arelocalized—eithergeographicallyorwithinanetwork—and

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serveaparticulargrouporneed,andareconvertibletofiatcurrencywhenneeded(Lietaerand

Belgin,2011;“Whymoneyisn’teverything”,2015).Theyinherentlyhaveflowormovement

associatedwiththem.

Examplesofcomplementarycurrenciesinclude:

1. FureaiKippu(pronounced‘foray-eye-keepoo’)—asectoralcurrencyinJapanusedasa

tokensystemprovidingelderlycare(Hayashi,2012)

2. BristolPound—alocalcurrencytoBristolintheUKusedasrealmoneydesignedto

supportthelocaleconomyinandaroundthecity(“BristolPound”,n.d.)

3. Bitcoin—acryptocurrencyusedacrosstheInternet

Whythesethreeconcepts?Atthecoreofourfindingsistherelationshipbetweenmoney’s

functionasagoodanditsfunctionasanasset,andhowbitcoincurrencyandblockchain

technologyhaveattributesthatexemplifyandenablekeepingvalueinmotion.Althoughbitcoin

hasbeenlaudedbysomeasastrongstoreofvalue(“Storeofvalueistheprimaryfunctionofa

currency•/r/Bitcoin,”2016;Das,2016)—asanasset—othersconsideritmoreeffectiveasa

mediumofexchange(LisaGanskyinconversationwithPaulKedrosky,2016).

Asamediumofexchange,bitcoinenablesindividualsandgroupsthatwouldnototherwisehave

accesstotheformaleconomyandbankingsystem(Leibowitz,2016).Accordingtoa2009

reportfromMcKinsey&Company,“Halftheworldisunbanked”.Addmasshumanmovementto

thispictureandconsiderthatgloballyweareexperiencingthe“biggestdisplacementofpeople

sincetheSecondWorldWar”(Hallett,2016).Thisprecarityshowstheburgeoningneedbutalso

opensopportunitiestohelppeopleandgroupsifnotparticipateintheeconomy,beabletoat

leastmovemoney.

WithinthisopportunityarethecurrentandpotentialimpactsofBitcoinandblockchain

technologyinservicetotheglobalremittancemarket—aprimechannelforkeepingmoneyand

valueinmotion,andathemethatemergedinboththesubjectmatterexpertinterviewsand

literatureinthefirstphaseoftheproject.

Inordertounderstandhowboththeneedsandtechnologiesplayoutatdifferentlevelsofthe

financialsystem,weneededtoenlisttoolsthatwouldprovideablendofmediaanalysis,

hierarchyandtime.MorefocuswillbegiventotheremittanceexamplewithintheFindingsand

Discussion.First,itisimportanttounderstandthephasesofthemethodologyandhowthetools

wereusedtosupportworkingwithresearchfindingsindifferentdimensions.

Methodology

Theresearchprocessconsistedoftwophases.

DiscoveryoftheConcepts,ContextsandAdoptionPotential

Thefirstofthesewasfocusedondiscoveryandunderstandingtheconcepts,contextsand

adoptionpotentialofthetechnologies.Thisphaseinvolvedaliteraturereviewandusingsemi-

structuredinterviewstoengagesixsubjectmatterexpertsintheTorontocommunitywhowere

workinginareasrelatedtoBitcoinandblockchain,andwhorepresentedabreadthof

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perspectivesfromtheareasoflaw,policyandcompliance,business,softwaredevelopment,

angelinvestmentanduserexperience.

DevelopmentoftheResearchFramework

Processingofthedatafromthefirstphaseinvolvedanalysingthecontentfromeachofthe

interviews,identifyingaffinitiesacrossparticipants,anddistillingacollectionofideasandcore

insightsacrosstheset.Theseinputsfedintothesecondphaseandthedevelopmentofa

researchframework,whichcameaboutthroughexperimentationwithMcLuhan’sMediaTetrad

andGundersonandHolling’sPanarchy.

ABOUTTHEMEDIATETRAD

ThetetradwasdevelopedbyMarshallMcLuhanasapedagogicaltoolforexplainingsocial

processesunderlyingadoptionofatechnologyormediumthataskedfourquestionsand

displayedthemsimultaneously,notsuccessivelyorchronologically:

1. Whatdoesthemediumenhance?

2. Whatdoesthemediummakeobsolete?

3. Whatdoesthemediumretrievethathadbeenobsolescedearlier?

4. Whatdoesthemediumreverseintowhenpushedtoextremes?

Figure6.EnhanceandRetrieveontheleftare‘figure’orforegroundelements—theycomeforwardor

advance.ReverseIntoandObsolesceontherightare‘ground’orbackgroundelements—theyretreatorfall

back.TheimageanddescriptionsarebasedonMcLuhan&McLuhan(1988).

Takingeachoftheideasdistilledfromthefirstphase,weaskedthefollowingquestionofeachof

theideasandplaceditinthecorrespondingquadrantonthetetrad:Doesthisideagesture

towardssomethingthatbitcoinand/ortheblockchainenhances,retrieves,obsolescesorreverses

into?Wefollowedthatrhythmofinquirythroughthreelevelsofthefinancialsystem:themicro

(realeconomy)level,themeso(financialservices)level,andthemacro(nationalcurrencyand

policy)level,plottingtheideaateachlevelitappliedandconsideredwhat‘strength’ithador

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mighthaveatthatlevel,where‘1’wasstrong,‘2’wasmedium,and‘3’wasweak.Ifanidea

didn’tapplytothelevelitwasnotplottedatthatlevel.

Figure7.Eachideawasassessedandplottedatthelevelsitappliedwithinthefinancialsystem.Thisimage

showstheideasassociatedwiththerealeconomylevel.

Thesimultaneousnatureofthetetradmeansitasksthateverythingberealandvalidinthe

samemoment,withoutchronologyorspecifiedtimebeyondthenow.Toaddressthequestionof

whattheimpactofthecurrencyandtechnology—bitcoinandBlockchainas‘media’—mightbe

overtime,webroughtinthepanarchymodelforunderstandingadaptivechangeincomplex

systems.

ABOUTTHEPANARCHY

GundersonandHollingadoptedtheconceptof‘panarchy’toencompassandunderstandthe

interactionsbetweenmultiplehierarchicallystructuredscalesofspace,timeandsocial

organization.Withthe“cross-scale,interdisciplinary,anddynamicnatureofthetheory…Its

essentialfocusistorationalizetheinterplaybetweenchangeandpersistence,betweenthe

predictableandunpredictable.”(GundersonandHolling,2002,p.5).

Anessentialpartofthetheoryandmodelisthefourphaseadaptivecyclebasedonresilienceand

adaptationinthenaturalenvironment.ThedescriptionsshowninFigure8wereexcerptedand

condensedfromGundersonandHolling’sdescriptionofaforest’scycle(2002,p.33-34).

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Figure8.Thefourphaseadaptivecycleasavisualframework.Eachcycle’squadrantbecomesacontainerfor

mappingconceptsandactivitiesastheyrelatetoGrowth,Conservation,CreativeDestructionand

Reorganization.TheimageanddescriptionsarebasedonGundersonandHolling(2002).

Inouruseofthepanarchymodel,weaddseasonaltimeasanextendedmetaphorforeachphase

andasreceptorsuponwhichtosequencetheideascapturedintheworkwiththetetrad.These

arereflectedineachcornerofFigure8,withthefollowingmappingtothefourphaseadaptive

cycle:

Exploitation(Growth)(r)phase=Summer

Conservation(Κ)phase=Autumn

Release(CreativeDestruction)(Ω)phase=Winter

Reorganization(α)phase=Spring

INTEGRATINGTHEMEDIATETRADANDPANARCHY

Inbringingthepanarchymodeltothecontentoutputsofthetetrad,weidentifiedtheconceptual

alignmentbetweenthefourquadrantsofbothmodels.Theconceptualbasisofreversesintoon

thetetradresonatedwiththeconceptofconservationwithinthepanarchycycle.Obsolesceson

thetetradfeltverycloseconceptuallytorelease(creativedestruction)onthepanarchy.Enhances

onthetetradconnectednaturallytogrowthonthepanarchy.Andretrievesonthetetrad

mappedwelltotheconceptofreorganizationonthepanarchy.

Tointegratemoreseamlesslybetweenthetetradandpanarchy,thisconceptualmappingledto

thenecessityofflippingthequadrantsontheleftsideofthetetrad.Enhancesmovedthebottom

leftandretrievesmovedtothetopleft(seeFigure9).Withthatflip,themappingacrossthefour

quadrantswhenthetetradisnestedwithinthepanarchybecame:

Enhances=Growth,orExploitation

ReversesInto=Conservation

Obsolesces=CreativeDestruction,orRelease

Retrieves=Reorganization

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Figure9.Forconceptualcoherencebetweenthetetradandpanarchymodels,itwasnecessarytoflipthe

elementsontheleftside.Enhancesmovedthebottomleftandretrievesmovedtothetopleft.

Flippingenhancesandretrievesmaintainsthefidelityofbothmodelsintheircombination

becausetheseareboth‘figure’(foreground)positions.Additionally,theseparationbetween

‘figure’ontheleftand‘ground’ontheright,reinforcestheideasofacurrencybehavinglikea

good(figure)andacurrencybehavinglikeanasset(ground).Addingtheseasonaldescriptors,

thefinalintegratedmodeltookthefollowingform(seeFigure10):

Enhances=Growth,orExploitation(Summer)

ReversesInto=Conservation(Autumn)

Obsolesces=CreativeDestruction,orRelease(Winter)

Retrieves=Reorganization(Spring)

Figure10.Thetetradandpanarchyasacombinedvisualframework.

Withthatstructureinplace,eachoftheideasplottedonthetetradateachlevelofthefinancial

system(fromrealeconomytofinancialservicesandnationalcurrency/policylevels)were

consideredagaininthecontextofthepanarchywiththeaddeddimensionoftimeateach

level—thehorizontalaxis—andthroughhierarchicallevelsofthesystem—theverticalaxis.

ThiswillbedescribedwithintheFindingsandDiscussion(seeFigure13).

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Findings and Discussion

Duringtheinterviewprocess,welearnedthatwhiletherewereadoptionchallenges,relatedin

largeparttothemessagingandthecontextofmessaging,somepeopleworkinginthisarea

werethinkingbeyondthetechnologytosocialchallengesofthecurrentsystem,andtowhatthe

technologycould,andinsomecasesdoes,address.

Boththeliteraturereviewandsubjectmatterexpertinterviewsplantedaseedearlyinthe

processtodiscussthecurrentandpotentialimpactsofthetechnologywithinthecontextofthe

globalmarketforremittancepayments.Thesocialmotivationsofsomecontributorsinthe

communityfurtherreinforcedtheglobalnatureoftheefforts,notablythatBitcoinand

blockchainenablebankingfortheunbankedandpartiallybanked,andforremittancepayments

acrossaglobeofmigratinghumansseekingabetterlifeforthemselvesandtheirfamilies.

KeyInsights

Theapplicationofthefindingstothemodelsisbestframedbythetwokeyinsightsthatcame

outoftheresearch.Thefirstoftheseinsightswasthattechnologyasleadinginnovationhitsup

againsttheslownessofpolicyinnovation.Earlycyclesoftechnologicaldevelopmentcanberapid.

Velocityisadvantageduntilthetechnologygetstoomuchattention,thenthepushforregulation

slowsitdown.Whereoncetherewasvalueinmotion,andfreedomforthecreators,thereis

nowcontrolfromexternalpartiesandeverythingslowsdown.Whenpolicytakesover,

ownershipcanshift,andittendstofavourincumbents.Thisisnotanewphenomenon.Itwas

documentedin1970byHasanÖzbekhaninareportonthePredicamentofMankindtotheClub

ofRomeasoneofthe49ContinuousCriticalProblems.

Thesecondinsightisthatsomeindividualsorgroupsareearlyadoptersoutofnecessity.Learning

abouttheuseofbitcoinforremittancepaymentsbetweenmigrantworkersandtheirlovedones

backhomewasabigillumination.Theremittancemarketishuge.Itisintegratedintonational

policies.Itcompeteswithinternationalaidasoneofthelargestinflowstodevelopingcountries.

Andthefragmentedexistenceofmigrantworkersmakesthemasoft-targetforpricegouging.

UsingbitcoinreducesthehighcostofusingWesternUnionandthebanks.Italsoreducesthe

frictionofsendingmoneywhenthesethirdpartiescutout.

KeyIdeasandHowTheyMappedtotheMediaTetrad

Whiletherewereseveralideasthatcameoutofthefirstphaseofresearch—and,asdescribedin

Methodologysection,wemappedallofthemtothetetradusingafour-questioninquirythrough

threelevelsofthefinancialsystem—wewilllimitthefocustoeightkeyideasonlyandtohow

eachmappedtothequestionsposedbythetetrad.Thefollowingeightideasflowinto,and

emergedfrom,thenarrativeprototypingphasewiththehybridmodel.Asaresult,notallthe

ideasarevisuallyhighlightedinthetetrad(seeFigure11).

Doesthisideagesturetowardssomethingthatbitcoin/blockchainOBSOLESCES?

Idea1:Needforthirdpartiesintransactionalrelationshipsgesturestothetechnology’s

potentialtoobsolescethecurrentfinancialstructures,includingremittance.Atthe

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widerblockchainlevel,theideapointstoobsolescenceofotherinstitutionswithin

existingstructuresandsystemsthatprimarilyserveanintermediaryfunctionwitha

centralizedandhierarchicalstructure,e.g.,insuranceorlicensing.

Doesthisideagesturetowardssomethingthatbitcoin/blockchainRETRIEVES?

Idea2:Increasedintimacyoftransactionsmappedwelltotheretrievesquadrantofthe

tetradbecausetheperson-to-personnatureofthetransaction,facilitatedandwitnessed

byothersinthesamenetwork,harkenstoqualitiesoftransactionsfromthepast.

Idea3:Anonymity(pseudonymity)ofpersonaltransactions.Transactionswithinthe

Bitcoinblockchain,andpotentiallyotherblockchains,movefromonecryptographickey

(analogoustoanemailaddress)toanother,andnotfrompersonalidentifiertopersonal

identifier.Asaresult,theyareanonymouswithinthenetwork.Moreaptly,theyare

pseudonymousbecauseitispossibletoassociatethepublickeyaspectofatransaction

toanIPaddressfromwhichanidentitycouldbedetermined.Thisisrelatedtothe

intimacyoftransactionsasitretrievesa‘betweenus’qualitytothetransaction.

Idea4:Upsideofbarter(trustcontainedwithintransaction)speakstothetechnology’s

uniqueabilitytoreorientthepositionofwheretrustisinthetransaction.Atransaction

facilitatedbyabankputsthetrustinthehandsofthebank.Trustina

bitcoin/blockchaintransactionis,toagreaterdegree,withintheactualtransaction

betweentwopartiesandsupportedbythetrusteachhasinthedecentralizedrecordof

theblockchainnetwork.

Doesthisideagesturetowardssomethingthatbitcoin/blockchainENHANCES?

Idea5:Currencywithoutborderswasconsideredtoenhancethefluidityandreliabilityof

transactionsbecauseitallowsmoneytoflowinternationallyatlittleornocost.Itcanbe

transferredtoanylocalityviainternetprotocol.

Idea6:Ownershipofmoneywasalsoconsideredtoenhancebyincreasingthesenseof

connectionandsovereigntyoveraccesstoone’swealth.Aslongasabitcoinholder

knowstheirpersonalcryptographickeysandhasaninternetconnection,thetechnology

allowsdirectaccesstoallofone’swealth.Theresearchshowedthatwithnoother

intermediaryinplay,agreatersenseofownershiptothoseholdingwealthwithbitcoin.

Doesthisideagesturetowardssomethingthatbitcoin/blockchainREVERSESINTO?

Idea7:Assetonlyusedasa‘flighttosafety’andnotasagood(mediumofexchange).The

morepeopleusingbitcoin,thegreateritsvalue,thatvaluemeasuredintheupward

trajectoryoftheprice.Withhigherprices,bitcoinreversesintoasset-likebehavior

offeringaflighttosafetyforthoseholdingvalueinotherinstrumentssuchasUSdollars,

orgovernmentbonds.

Idea8:Startupculturearoundbitcoinasaremittancetoolgesturestowardswhatthis

technologyreversesintoastherestartstobesomeentrenchmentandorganization

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aroundhowthetechnologyisdeliveringvalue.ThisideaisnotinFigure11below,itwas

onefromthediscoverphasethatwerevisitedandincludedinthisquadrant

retroactivelyasweprototypednarrativedevelopmentwiththehybridmodel(see

PrototypingNarrativesbelow).

Thesimultaneityinherenttothismodelwasbothchallengingandexhilaratingtoworkwith.

Theexperienceisoneofengagingdeeplyintotheambiguityofaparticularmoment,outsidethe

thelinearjuxtapositionsandsensemakingthatsounconsciouslycomewithatimeframe.This

effectofsimultaneityloadedonemomentwithmultipletruths,leadingtoanaturalinclination

toconsiderhowtheseimpacts,these“mediaeffects”,mayplayoutovertime.Thepurposeof

usingthepanarchymodelatthispointwastomakesenseofhowtheseideasmighttriggera

subsequenteffect—orperhapsmoreinterestingly,anantecedentcause—withinatimeframe.

Figure11.Ideasmappedontothemediatetradwithresonantideas,basedontheratingsforstrength,

highlightedineachquadrant.

PrototypingNarrativesOverTimeWiththePanarchyModel

Addingtheelementoftimeandthedynamicsofthelargerfinancialsystem,weintroducethe

integratedtetrad-panarchymodelasatooltoseedscenarios.Theaboveideasmappedtothe

tetradbecometheanchorsinanarrativeframedbythehybridmodel’sseasonalsequence.To

groundthisinarealworldexample,weusedtheideasassequentialelementstotellthe

remittancemarketstorythatisalreadyoccurring.Thestoryofremittanceprovidesawayto

describehowthemodelcouldbeusedtounderstandanexistingsystemwithaneyeon

generatingnewfuturenarratives.

REMITTANCENARRATIVEATTHEMICROLEVEL

AtthisfirstormicrolevelofthemodelistheRealEconomyrepresentingtheactualandtangible

tasks,behaviours,entities,andinteractions,thatareinvolvedforapersonremittingapayment

fromonecountrytoanother.

15

Thereisahugeglobalmarketforremittance.Themarketbringsinover500billiondollarsa

year(Buenaventura,2016)anditslargestplayer,WesternUnion,chargesbetween8%and20%

tomaketransfers(Chan,2015).Thebitcoinblockchainhasbeenappliedinthisspaceandoffers

savingsandexpediencytocurrentusersofotherremittanceofferings.Whatfollowsisa

narrativedescriptionoftheideasontherealeconomylevelastheywouldplayoutoverthe

seasonaltimeframeprovidedbythepanarchy(seeFigure12).

Figure12.Selectedideasastheyrelatetoremittanceandmappedintotheintegratedmodelatthemicro,real

economy,level.

Enhances/Growth(Summer)

Idea5:Currencywithoutborders—Today,partofBitcoin’s$800(USD)price(asofthiswriting)

derivesitsvaluefromitsfunctionasacomplementarycurrency,withanincreasingabilitytobe

movedquicklyandoverbordersusingtheInternetProtocolandthentradedintothefiat

currencyofanyparticularlocality.Withinthecontextoftheremittancemarket,weseemigrant

workersusingbitcoinsometimesviaaremittancestartupandsometimesthemselvesusing

Bitcoinasawaytosendmoneybackhomeforlittleornocost.

Idea6:Ownershipofmoney—Foracustomerintheremittancemarkettoparticipateinusing

bitcoinasatransfertool,thereisnecessarilyapointinthatprocesswherethemoneytheywant

tosendwillbedenominatedinbitcoin.Evenifthisisashorttimeframe,theconnectiontoone’s

moneyprovidesagreaterdegreeofagencyandcontrolfortheremittancemarketcustomer,

oftenamigrantworkersendingwageshome.

Idea8:Startupculturearoundnewremittanceservices—Asthetechnologystartstobeusedand

theenhancementitprovidesbeginstodelivervaluetomigrantworkersandthepeoplethey

transfermoneyto,theenhancementreversesintoastartupculturearoundthisspecific

function.Thismaybeevidencedbynewstartupentitiesdeliveringservicesandresourcesfor

howbitcoinworks.Essentially,weseeaninitialiterationofanewremittancemarketmaturity

asnoticeablenumbersofpeoplebegintoactuallyusethesenewwaystoremit.

16

Obsolesces/CreativeDestruction(Winter)

Idea1:Reducedneedforthirdpartyintermediaries—Thisemergingstartupcultureleadstoan

obsolescingofthecurrentwaysinwhichmoneyistransferredbackhome.Atthisfirst

revolutionaroundtheloop,wewouldnotexpecttoseeacollapseofWesternUnion,andinfact

theyremainthelargestcompanyintheremittancespace.Thisfirstroundofobsolescencehas

manifestedastheshiftingofsomecustomersfromWesternUnionovertobitcoinasatransfer

tool,andWesternUnionremainingsecureandconfidentintheirproductoffering.Wewillsee

moreofhowthatplaysoutaswemovethroughthemesoandmacrolevelstofollow.

Retrieves/Reorganization(Spring)

Idea2:Increasedintimacyoftransactions—Inthespacecreatedfromaninitialobsolescingof

thecurrentremittanceserviceproviders,weseegreaterintimacyoftransactionsplayoutasthe

migrantworkersusedirectperson-to-persontransactionstosendmoneyhome.

Idea3:Anonymity(pseudonymity)ofpersonaltransactions—Theideaofamigrantworker

sendingmoneydirectlyhomewithouttheinvolvementofacentralizedplatformthatwould

necessarilybepartytothetransaction,meansthatthetransactionisnotonlyintimate,between

onlythetwoparties,butisalsoessentiallyanonymous.Withoutthethirdpartyplatform,what

ismoretangiblyretrievedisthe8-20%oftheremittedwagesthatgotoathirdparty

intermediaryforenablingthetransactionbyprovidingthetrustedplatform.Withthetrust

providedbytheblockchainnetwork,themigrantworkerretrieveswhatheorshewouldpay

fromwagesinordertomakeatransfer.Thisretrievalmightbesignificantenoughtoclarifyand

acceleratetheintentionsofmigrantworkers,whatevertheyhappentobe:tobereunited,to

movetothemiddleclass,toprovide,ortoprogress.

BacktoEnhances/Growth(NextSummer)

Returningtothebottomleftquadrant,weseeanotheriterationoftheideassituatedinthose

quadrants(andperhapstheemergenceofnewideas).Forexample,currencywithoutbordersis

furtherandmoredeeplyenhancedasmorepeoplehavetheexperienceofusingitandthe

degreetowhichtheoutcomesarebeneficialtothem,withintheremittancemarketandbeyond.

REMITTANCENARRATIVEATTHEMESOANDMACROLEVELS

AtthemiddleormesolevelofthemodelistheFinancialServiceslayerofthesystem.Inthe

contextofremittance,thislevelwouldcurrentlyincludewhereWesternUnionandits

competitorsoperate,theirpolicies,theirdaytodayoperationsandrelationshipstobanks,

governmentpolicy,andcustomers.

AtthetopormacrolevelofthemodelistheNationalCurrencyorGovernmentlayerofthe

system.Thiswouldincludetheelementsrelatedtohowthegovernmentofanationinteracts

withthedynamicsarounditscitizenssendingmoneybackhomefromabroad.

Toextendthemicronarrativetothemesoandmacrolevels,weusedaspecificrealworld

exampletoillustratehowthemodelmightservetobuildnewordescribeexistingnarratives

throughtheverticallevelsofthesystem.

17

Nigeriahas21millionpeopleinthediaspora,manyaresendingmoneyhometofriendsand

family(Fawehinmi,2016).Inrecentyears,theyhavebeguntousenewmodesoftransfer

enabledbybitcoin,aswellasotherdigitalalternatives.Thesemodesareworkingandpeople

likethemalot—itmeansfewerpeopleareusingWesternUnionandotherincumbents.This

narrativeisdepictedintheabovejourneythroughtherealeconomylevel.

Ascustomerswanttousebitcoinandrelatedofferingsmoreonthismicrolevel,weseean

increaseinthespeedandintensitythroughthefourquadrantsoftherealeconomyadaptive

loop.Thepanarchymodeldescribesthatwhenthemicroloopreachesalevelofhighintensity,

thereisa‘revolt’(“Panarchy”,2016)fromthegrowth/enhancesquadrantonthemicrolevelup

totheconservation/reversesquadrantonthefinancialserviceslevel(seeFigure13).Inthis

example,wecoulddescribethisnarrativelyasnewstartupsprovidingnewservicesthatare

nowinvisiblecompetitionwithsimilarfunctionalofferingsatthefinancialserviceslevel.Said

anotherway,therevolthappenswhenbitcoinasalowtonocostalternativetoremitreachesa

criticalmassofcustomers,andisthereforeseenonthefinancialserviceslevelasaviable

alternative,andthreat,tothecurrentofferings.

Fromthenationallevelthepanarchydescribesthephenomenonof‘remember’(“Panarchy”,

2016)wherethemacrolevelofasystemwillrespondtorebalanceachangingsystem,moving

fromtheconservation/reversesquadrantatthetopleveldowntothereorganization/retrieves

quadrantonthemesolevel.Thenarrativeofwhatactuallyhappenedseemstofitwellintothe

dynamicsdescribedbythemodel.TheCentralBankofNigeriainJuly2016imposedapolicy

thatrequiresthoseofferingremittalservicestohavea1billiondollarmarketcapandhave

officesin20countries(Fawehinmi,2016).Thisisthesystem,fromthetop,invokingremember

inaparticularlyovertandbrazenway.Onlyonecompany,WesternUnion,wouldbeableto

complywiththelegislation,soitisveryobviousthesignalbeingtriggered:torememberthe

current,andincumbent,offerings.

Thetwokeyinsightsintroducedearlier—thattechnologyasleadinginnovationhitsupagainst

theslownessofpolicyinnovation,andthatsomeindividualsorgroupsareearlyadoptersoutof

necessity—areatthecoreofthisnarrative.InthecaseofNigeria,thetechnologyisnotsimply

‘hittingupagainst’,butwiththebrazennessofthepolicyitwouldseemtobeaggressivelybeing

shovedback.Thehigherlevelofsystemissaying‘remember’tothe‘revolt’fromthereal

economylevel.Andformigrantworkersspendinglargeamountsjusttosendthosewageshome

actoutofnecessity,onthemicrolevel,toensuretheireffortsabroadarenotinvain.

18

Figure13.Themicro,mesoandmacrolevelsofthehybridmodeldescribingtherevoltandremember

dynamicsoftheNigerianremittanceindustry.

Conclusion

Ourprojectbeganwithanobjectivetomapthelocalcommunityofbitcoinandthenshifted

focustopursueanunderstandingandmappinghowthecoreconceptsandthedifferentuses

andemergingopportunitiesforthetechnologymightplayoutinthelargerfinancialsystem.In

conclusionwerevisittheresearchquestion:

WhatmightthepotentialimpactofBitcoinandblockchainbeatdifferentlevelsofthefinancial

system?

Whatemergedinourprojecttoanswerthisquestionwasthedevelopmentofaframeworkand

methodologyintoahybridmodelthatcombinesthesimultaneityofMcLuhan’sMediaTetrad

withtheseasonaltimeframeinGundersonandHolling’sPanarchymodel.

Oneofthebenefitsofusingthetetradanddoingtheanalysisatdifferentlevelsofasystemisthe

aggregateemergence.Thesimultaneityofthetetradenabledseeingconnectionsoutsideofa

timeframeofalltheideasgeneratedfromtheliteraturereview,theprocessedinterviews,our

conversationswitheachotherandwithouradvisor,PeterJones.

19

Thebenefitwefoundinusingthepanarchywasthentotakethoseemergentideasthroughtime

horizontallythroughoneleveloftheadaptivecycle,andverticallythroughmultiplelevelsof

systems(micro,mesoandmacro).

Thecontentandinsightsgeneratedfromthemodelthatemergedopenedthedoortofuture

studyinthearenaofremittance.Intheremittancedynamicdepictedinthenarrative,itis

currentlynecessarytoconvertbitcointolocalfiatcurrencytorealizethevalueasagood.The

moreonecanactuallyspendbitcoinonlinetogetthelocalgoodsoneneedsorwants,theless

oneneedstorealizeitsvalueasagoodthroughlocalfiat.Weseethisdynamicasajumpingoff

pointforfurtherstudy.ItispossiblethatthisalreadysustainableapplicationofBitcoincouldbe

theentrypointforBitcoin’spotentialtobanktheunbankedtowardstheemergenceofa‘digital

middleclass’.

Weofferthisasafirstuseofanascentintegratedmodelandwouldencourageotherstotrythe

approach.Wewouldbedelightedtohearaboutanyofthesefurtherexperiments.

Contact

KimberleyPeter(kimberpeter@gmail.com)

MichaelSchaus(schausmike@gmail.com)

Acknowledgements

WewishtothankDr.PeterJones,AssociateProfessoratFacultyofDesignatOCADUniversity,

forhisadvisoryroleonthisresearchproject.Dr.Jonesplayedacriticalandcatalyticroleinthe

toolsexplorationandinbroadeningourthinkingaboutcurrencies.

Wearealsoindebtedtothesixsubjectmatterexpertswhogaveustheirtimeforinterviewsand

providedvaluablesourcematerialandinspirationforexploringtheconceptsingreaterdepth.

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