Timor-LesteCountry Risk Analysis:
A Macroeconomic risk
Tomas Freitas
Timor-Leste Country Risk Analysis
Outline
• Country & Economy Performance• Transparency and Accountability• Theoretical Framework • Economy Growth ( the elements of GDP)• Conclusion
Timor-Leste Country Risk Analysis
Item weight SourcePopulation 1.2 Million NSD (2011)
Life Expectancy 62.5 year HDR (2011)
Child Mortality under five year old
56 Per 1000 live birth
HDR (2011)
Access Clean Water 35.7% HDR (2011)
Access to Education (Primary School)
90% MoF (2012)
Growth National Income 2,704 Million (USD) IMF (2010)
GDP Per capita $805 (USD) HDR (2011)
Real GDP Growth 9.5% ADB (2010)
Urban Unemployment 42% MoF (2012)
Rural Unemployment 80% MoF (2012)
Inflation 12.4% MoF (2011)
BOP (Current Account) 1,717 Million USD BCTL (2010)
Savings +10 Billion USD BCTL (2012)
Country & Economy Performance
Timor-Leste Country Risk Analysis
Index Period Rank Score
Revenue Transparency 2010 12/40 70.5
Corruption Perceptions 2011 143/183 2.4/10
Judicial Independence 2010-2012 86/142 3.3/7
Rule of Law 2010 10% -1.2
Open Budget 2010 Minimal 34
Voice & Accountability 2010 49% 0.02
Control of Corruption 2010 18% 0.95
Human Development Report
2011 147/187 (Low)
0.495
Press Freedom 2011-2012 86/179 30.00
Timor-Leste Transparency and Accountability performance
Source: Transparency International http://www.transparency.org/country#TLS
Timor-Leste Country Risk Analysis
Theoretical Framework • Macroeconomic
– Income Approach GDP: The total income earned by the household in a
nation during a year Total Income = Rent + Wages + Interest + profit
– Expenditures Approach GDP: the total amount spent on goods and services
in a nation by households, firms, government and foreigners
GDP = C + I + G + Xn) Timor-Leste Country Risk Analysis
GDP Growth
Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook
Timor-Leste Country Risk Analysis
Fiscal Year ConsumptionBased on Consumer Price Index in Million US Dollar
Investment In Capital Asset (Million US Dollar)
Gov Exp in Health, Education, Agriculture, Infrastructure & Social Securityin Million US Dollar
Exports Imports Trade Balance
2004-05 107.5 - 52.3/79.0 105,645 146,108 -40,454
2005-06 107.5 - 46.1/112.0 43,451 109,127 -65,676
2006-07 120.0 - 142.9/328.6 60,685 100,802 -40,117
Transition 134.1 - 72.9/116.4 19,179 206,133 -186,954
2008 145.6 - 208.7/483.9 49,207 268,584 -219,377
2009 146.4 - 355.1/603.6 34,512 295,096 -260,584
2010 - 54 458.8/758.7 - - -
2011 - - 365/1,306.0 - - -
2012 - - 423.9/1,674.1 - - -
Elements Of The GDP
Timor-Leste Country Risk Analysis
Sources: Ministry of Finance & National Statistic Directorate
Elements of Consumption
Source: National Statistic Directorate Data compiled from April 2011-April 2012 Timor-Leste
Country Risk Analysis
Government Expenditures
Timor-Leste Country Risk Analysis
Sources: Ministry of Finance
Revenues contribution to State Budget
Source: Ministry of Finance Timor-Leste Country Risk Analysis
Merchandise Import of Major commodities
Commodity Value in US Dollar
Commodity Value in US Dollar
Vehicles (Cars & Motorbikes)
58,486,000 Construction materials 4,075,138
Rice 35,069,475 Tractors for Agricultures 3,186,171
Fuels 30,715,395 IT & Computers 2,972,124
Electrical Machinery(Heavy Fuel Generators)
25,198,000 Household furniture's 655,676
Aerials & Aerial reflectors, Boilers, Machinery
22,770,000 Medicines, Antibiotics & equipments
524,934
Alcohol & Tobacco 7,456,999 Vegetables, Fruits &Cooking oil
85,766
Timor-Leste Country Risk Analysis
Source: National Statistic Directorate
Exports Commodity
Commodity Quantity (in Kg)
Value (in USD)
Coffee 9,941,963 8,290,612
Re Exports Heavy Containers
26,021,000
Timor-Leste Country Risk Analysis
Source: National Statistic Directorate (2012)
Issues status Manatuto
in %
Dili
in %
Ermera
in %
Manufahi
in %
Food Consumption Less than adequate 32.0 27.7 71.3 28.9
Housing Less than adequate 27.7 23.1 62.6 45.4
Clothing Less than adequate 16.0 21.2 31.8 21.2
Health Care Less than adequate 19.2 15.1 56.2 22.5
Children education Less than adequate 22.2 28.4 54.4 20.2
Household income Less than adequate 69.0 56.2 86.8 69.1
Timor-Leste Country Risk Analysis
Timor-Leste Country Risk Analysis
Circular Flow
Timor-Leste Country Risk Analysis
Timor-LesteCircular
Flow
Conclusion
• Timor-Leste economy is high risk because:– There are no factors of production.– There are no alternative commodities to export
except coffee.– The private sector relies on government projects.– Government revenue depends on oil.– There is no legal protection for local food
production.
Timor-Leste Country Risk Analysis
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