www.fas.org
HansM.KristensenDirector,NuclearInforma7onProjectFedera7onofAmericanScien7sts
Phone:202-454-4695Email:[email protected]
Presenta7onto17thCas7glioncelloInterna7onalConference
Interna7onalSecurityintheTrumpEraPugwash-USPIDJointmee7ng
Cas7glioncello,ItalySeptember22,2017
TheStatusofNuclearWeapons:Arsenals,Moderniza:ons,andOpera:ons
It’sscarystuff!
www.fas.org
2
NuclearArsenalsandTrendsMorethan125,000warheadsproducedsince1945
Peakof64,500stockpiledwarheadsin1986(70,300ifincludingre7redwarheads)
• USstockpilepeakedearly(1967)• Russianstockpilepeakedlate(1986)
Enormousreduc7onssince1986peak:
• ~54,000warheadstockpilereduc7on• ~47,000+warheadsdismantled
~10,000warheadsinstockpiles(~15,000ifcoun7ngre7redwarheadsawai7ngdismantlement)
USandRussiapossess90%ofglobalinventory(94%ifcoun7ngre7redwarheads);eachhasmorethan4:mesmorewarheadsthanrestofworldcombined;157mesmorethanthird-largeststockpile(France)
Decreasing:US,Russia,Britain
Increasing:China,Pakistan,India,NorthKorea
Steady:France,Israel
Hans M. Kristensen, Federation of American Scientists, 2017 | Slide
www.fas.org
3
Withmorethan90%ofworldinventory,USandRussiahavespecialresponsibilitytoreduce
Reduc7onofdeployedstrategicwarheadsfromsome23,000in1989to3,600in2017(NewSTARTcounts3,176)
Readinesslevelofremainingstrategicforcesishigh:some1,800+warheadsonpromptalert
Noofficialde-aler7ng,butsignificantreduc7onofoverallalertnumbers:heavybombersde-alerted,USICBMsandSLBMsdownloaded,non-strategicforcesde-alerted
Trend:paceofreduc:onsisslowing
UScutonly1,273warheadsin2008-2017,comparedwith5,023warheadscutin1998-2007
Russiacutanes7mated1,629warheadsin2008-2017,comparedwith8,082in1998-2007
Insteadofcon7nuingpaceorincreasingreduc7ons,USandRussianstockpilesappeartobelevelingoutforthelonghaul;newemphasisonmoderniza7on
Newini7a7vesneededtopreventstallingofarmscontrol
NuclearArsenalsandTrends
Hans M. Kristensen, Federation of American Scientists, 2017 | Slide
www.fas.org
Largedisparityindeployedstrategiclaunchers(150inMar2017)fuelsasymmetricpostures:RussiaMIRVfocus;USlauncherfocus
Russianincreaseofdeployedwarheads2013-2016fueledspecula7onsthatRussiawouldnotimplementNewSTART
USreten7onoflargewarheaduploadcapacityand“warm”ICBMsilos,especiallywhenseentogetherwithadvancedconven7onalweaponsandgrowingmissiledefense,seenasdestabilizing
Overallmoderniza7onsdeepenEast-Westcrisisbyfuelingsuspicionandworst-casescenarioplanningonbothsides
RussianINFviola7onputstreatyfutureindoubtandpoisonsatmosphereforothertrea7es
Effortstoincreasetransparencyandreducenon-strategicweaponshavestalled
Russianincreaseofdeployedstrategicwarheadslooksbadandsendsthewrongsignal,butisnotmilitarilysignificant:
EvenifRussiadeployedaddi7onalstrategicwarheadstoconductadisarmingfirststrike,evensignificantlyabovetheNewSTARTTreatylimits,it“wouldhaveli=letonoeffectsontheU.S.assuredsecond-strikecapabili7esthatunderwriteourstrategicdeterrenceposture.”
The“RussianFedera7on…wouldnotbeabletoachieveamilitarilysignificantadvantagebyanyplausibleexpansionofitsstrategicnuclearforces,eveninacheaCngorbreakoutscenarioundertheNewSTARTTreaty…” DOD,ReportontheStrategicNuclearForcesoftheRussianFederaCon,2012
NuclearArsenalsandTrends
4Hans M. Kristensen, Federation of American Scientists, 2017 | Slide
www.fas.org
Un7llast-minutecutin2016,theObamaadministra7onhadreducedstockpiletheleastofanypost-ColdWarUSadministra7on.EvenwithlastcutitonlybarelyoutperformedClinton.Republica7onshavecuttwiceasmuch
NuclearArsenalsandTrends
5Hans M. Kristensen, Federation of American Scientists, 2017 | Slide
www.fas.org
InEurope:significantreduc7onssinceColdWarandmostforcespulledback
Yetsignificantforcesremain:
• 3Europeannuclearweaponstates• 5non-nuclearweaponsstateshavesemi-nuclearstatus
• Russiahas~1,850non-strategicnuclearwarheadsforair-,naval-,army-,anddefense-forces
• NATOnon-strategicweaponsinclude~150USbombsinEurope(reddots)and54Frenchair-launchedcruisemissiles(consideredstrategicbyFrance)
6Hans M. Kristensen, Federation of American Scientists, 2017 | Slide
NuclearArsenalsandTrends
www.fas.org
7
ICBM• SS-27Mod2(mobile):replacingSS-25satNovosibirsk,Tagil,Yoshkar-Ola• SS-27Mod2(silo):replacingSS-19satKozelsk• SS-27Mod2(rail):envisionedbutuncertain• RS-26(compactSS-27):toreplaceSS-25satIrkutskandVypolzovo• RS-28(Sarmat):toreplaceSS-18satDombarovskyandUzhur
SSBN/SLBM• SS-N-23SLBMlife-extension(Sineva/Layner)inDeltaIVSSBN• BoreiSSBN:8planned(possibly10-12)• SS-N-32(Bulava):fielding
Bombers• UpgradesofsomeTu-160(Blackjack)andTu-95(Bear)• Newbomber(PAKPA)indevelopment• NuclearALCM(Kh-102)indevelopment
Tac7cal• Tu-22M(Backfire)upgradeunderway• Su-34(Fullback)fielding(replacingSu-24)• Yasen(Sverodvinsk)SSGNfielding• SLCM(SS-N-30A,Kalibr)fielding• GLCM(SSC-8)fielding• SSM(SS-26,Iskander-M)fielding(replacingSS-21)• SAM(S-400/SA-21)fielding(replacingS-300);nuclear?• ABM(A-135)upgradeplanned
Moderniza:on:Russia
Russiaisreducingitsarsenal
Hans M. Kristensen, Federation of American Scientists, 2017 | Slide
Upgradeof10short-rangeballis7cmissilebrigadessince2007
FromSS-21(Tochka-U)toSS-26(Iskander-M)
Firstbrigadeopera7onalin2014atLugaSouthofSt.Petersburg
SecondSS-26brigadepossiblynearMolkinoinKrasnodarKraieastofCrimea(right)
BothLugaandMolkinohavenewuniqueweaponsdepot
Introduc7onmightbegininKaliningradaround2018
Hans M. Kristensen, Federation of American Scientists, 2017 | Slide 8
Moderniza:on:Russia
www.fas.org
ItisotensaidthattheUnitedStateshashada“procurementholiday”onnuclearforcessincetheColdWar
Andthat“everyoneismodernizingbuttheUnitedStates”
Andthat“RussiaisbuildingwarheadswhiletheUnitedStatescan’t”
Well…
Moderniza:on:UnitedStates
9Hans M. Kristensen, Federation of American Scientists, 2017 | Slide
www.fas.org
10
ICBM• MinutemanIIIlife-extensioncomple7ng• Warheadfuzes/interoperablewarheadplanned• GBSD(ICBMreplacement)indevelopment
SSBN/SLBM• TridentIID5SLBMlife-extensionfielding• SSBNreplacementdevelopment(12planned)• EnhancedW76-1warheadlife-extensiondeploying• W88-1warheadlife-extensiondevelopment
Bombers• UpgradeofB-2andB-52underway• B-21next-genera7onbomberindevelopment• B61-12guidedstandoffbombindevelopment• LRSO(ALCMreplacement)indevelopment
Tac7cal• F-35Anuclearcapabilityindevelopment• B61-12guidedstandoffbombindevelopment
Infrastructure• UraniumProcessingFacility(secondaries)construc7on• Plutoniumproduc7onfacili7es(primaries)construc7on• Warheadsurveillance/simula7onfacili7esupgrades
Moderniza:on:UnitedStates
TheUnitedStatesisreducingitsarsenal
Hans M. Kristensen, Federation of American Scientists, 2017 | Slide
www.fas.org
• Modifica7onofB61bombfrom“dumb”bombtoguided,standoffB61-12withguidedtailkitassemblythatincreasestarge7ngaccuracyandefficiency:onetypecancoverallbombmissions(tac7calaswellasstrategic)*
• B61-12integra7ononB-2,B-21,F-15E,F-16,F-35A,Tornado• B61-12FirstProduc7onUnitin2020;stockpilingfrom2024
• B61-12cost$8-$10billion:morethanadecadeworthofEuropeanReassuranceIni7a7ves
• TheB61-12willreplaceB61-3,(B61-4),B61-7,B61-10,B-83*Note:Digitalaircrat(B-2,B-21,F-15E,F-35A)willbeabletousetailkitforguidedemployment;olderanalogaircrat(Tornado,F-16)willuseballis7cemployment
“TheAirForcetailkitwillprovidetheB61-12withameasureofimprovedaccuracytogivethesamemilitarycapabilityasthehigheryieldbombsitreplaces.“
BrianMcKeon,OSD,July28,2016(emphasisadded)
11Hans M. Kristensen, Federation of American Scientists, 2017 | Slide
Moderniza:on:UnitedStates+NATO
www.fas.org
12
Ac7vevaultweaponstoragesystematsixbasesinfivecountries:Belgium(KleineBrogel),Germany(Buchel),Italy(Aviano,Ghedi),Netherlands(Volkel),Turkey(Incirlik).SecurityatUSbaseshasbeenupgradedatAviano(below)andIncirlik
Hans M. Kristensen, Federation of American Scientists, 2017 | Slide
Moderniza:on:UnitedStates+NATO
www.fas.org
13Hans M. Kristensen, Federation of American Scientists, 2017 | Slide
Moderniza:on:UnitedStates+NATO
www.fas.org
14
Moderniza:on:China
ICBM/IRBM• DF-31AGICBMindevelopment• DF-31A(CSS-10Mod2)ICBMfielding• DF-5B(CSS-4Mod2)ICBMwithMIRV• DF-41ICBMindevelopment(possiblyMIRV)• DF-26IRBMfielding
SSBN/SLBM• Jin(Type-094)SSBNfielding(4-5expected)• JL-2(CSS-N-14)SLBMindevelopment• Type-096SSBNpossiblyindevelopment
CruiseMissiles:• ALCM(CJ-20onH-6bomber)indevelopment*• NewALCMindevelopment,possiblynuclearop7on**
*Listedin2013AFGSCbriefingasnuclear**ListedinDIA2017briefing
Chinaisincreasingitsarsenal
Hans M. Kristensen, Federation of American Scientists, 2017 | Slide
www.fas.org
15
Moderniza:on:France
SSBN/SLBM• TNOwarheadfieldingonM51.2SLBM• M51.3SLBMindevelopment
Bombers• RafaleK3toreplaceMirage2000NatIstresAirBase• Next-genera7onALCMindevelopment
Infrastructure• MegajouleatCESTAdevelopment• Airix/EpurehydrodynamictestcenteratValducdevelopment(partlyJointFrench-UKwarheadsurveillancetes7ngcenter)
Franceisneitherincreasingnorreducingitsarsenal
Hans M. Kristensen, Federation of American Scientists, 2017 | Slide
www.fas.org
16
Moderniza:on:Britain
SSBN/SLBM• SSBNDreadnoughtindevelopment(4planned)• SLBM(TridentIID5LE)SLBMfielding• Mk4A/W76-1typewarheadfielding
Infrastructure• JointUK-Frenchwarheadsurveillancetes7ngtechnology
centerdevelopment
Britainisreducingitsarsenal
Hans M. Kristensen, Federation of American Scientists, 2017 | Slide
www.fas.org
17
Moderniza:on:Pakistan
MRBM/SRBM• ShaheenIIIMRBM(Haw-6)indevelopment(MIRV?)• ShaheenIIMRBM(Haw-6)fielding• NASRSRBM(Haw-9)fielding• AbdaliSRBM(Haw-2)fielding
CruiseMissiles• GLCM(Babur/Haw-7)indevelopment• ALCM(Ra’ad/Haw-8onMirage)indevelopment• SLCM(Babur3)indevelopment
Infrastructure• Khushab-IVreactor#4construc7on• Uraniumenrichmentfacilityupgrade
Pakistanisincreasingitsarsenal
Hans M. Kristensen, Federation of American Scientists, 2017 | Slide
www.fas.org
18
Moderniza:on:India
ICBM/IRBM/MRBM• AgniVIICBMindevelopment(MIRV?)• AgniVICBMindevelopment• AgniIVIRBMindevelopment• AgniIIIIRBMfielding
SSBN/SLBM• ArihantSSBNdevelopment(3+expected)• K-15/K-4SLBMindevelopment• DhanushSLBMfielding
CruiseMissiles• GLCM(Nirbhay)indevelopment*
Infrastructure• Oneplutoniumproduc7onreactordeveloping• Breederreactors?
*Reportedbynewsmediabutnotlistedin2017NASICreport.
Indiaisincreasingitsarsenal
Hans M. Kristensen, Federation of American Scientists, 2017 | Slide
www.fas.org
19
Moderniza:on:Israel
IRBM• JerichoIIIIRBMindevelopment?
SSG/SLBM• DolphinSSGfielding• SLCM(PopeyeTurbo/Harpoon)rumored*
Bomber• F-35Afielding
*Reportedbynewsmediabutdeniedbyofficials.USpublicintelligencereportsomitreferencestoIsraelinuclearforces.
Israelisneitherincreasingnorreducingitsarsenal
Hans M. Kristensen, Federation of American Scientists, 2017 | Slide
www.fas.org
20
Moderniza:on:NorthKorea*
ICBM/IRBM/MRBM• NoDongMRBMfielding• ScudERMRBMindevelopment• Bukkeukseong-2MRBMinearlydevelopment• Hwasong-10(Musudan)IRBMindevelopment• Hwasong-12IRBMinearlydevelopment• Hwasong-13(KN-08)ICBMindevelopment• Hwasong-14ICBMindevelopment• TaepoDong2SLV(ICBM?)indevelopment
SSBN/SLBM• SSBNindevelopment• Bukkeukseong-1SLBMindevelopment
Infrastructure• Yongbyonplutoniumproduc7onreactorre-start• Uraniumenrichmentproduc7onconstruc7on
*Atersixundergroundnucleartestsandincreasinglyadvancedmissiletests,NorthKoreamightbecapableofminiaturizingitstestdevices.Itisuncleartowhatextentitshasopera7onalizeditsnuclearcapability.Sufficientfissilematerialfor30-60warheadsbutassemblednumberunknown.
NorthKoreaisincreasingitsarsenal
Hans M. Kristensen, Federation of American Scientists, 2017 | Slide
www.fas.org
Long-rangebomberflightsresumedin2004;non-strategicnuclear-capablefighter-bombersclosertoNATOcountriesincreasedsharplysince2012;“snap”exercisesincreasinginfrequency,size,visibility;occasionalexplicitnuclearthreatsissuedbyofficials
NuclearstrategysimilartoUSbutmoreemphasisonnon-strategicweaponsandearly/firstuse
Maynotalwaysbeexplicitnuclearsignal,butotenseenassuch
Bal7cSea:Su-24fighter-bomberintercept Bal7cSea:Tu-22MbombersreportedlysimulatednuclearstrikeagainstSwedenin2013
NorthSea:Tu-95bomberintercept Bal7cSea:SS-N-9SLCMloading
TelevisedICBM/SLBMlaunches
Luga:SS-26returnfromKaliningraddeployment
NuclearOpera:ons:Russia
21Hans M. Kristensen, Federation of American Scientists, 2017 | Slide
www.fas.org
F-16 deployments to Estonia, Poland, Sweden
B-52 over Latvia B-52, B-2 deployment to United Kingdom
B-52s over BALTOPS exercise SSBN visit to Scotland
NuclearOpera:ons:UnitedStates
Long-rangebombersintegratedmoreprominentlyintoEUCOMstrikeplanning;ColdWar-likebomberstrikeexercisesoverNorthPoleandNorthSeaintoBal7cSea;exercisesinEasternEuropeincreasinginfrequency,size,visibility;fighter-bomberrota7onaldeploymentsandexercisesinBal7cStates,Poland,Sweden;occasionalSSBNportvisitstoScotland
2013nuclearstrategyreaffirmedcounterforce,rejectedminimumdeterrence
22Hans M. Kristensen, Federation of American Scientists, 2017 | Slide
www.fas.org
Aspartof“maintainingtheU.S.nucleardeterrentwithNATO”toprovidethe“supremeguaranteeofthesecurityoftheAllies,”USEuropeanCommand“hasforgedalinkbetweenSTRATCOMBomberAssuranceandDeterrencemissionstoNATOregionalexercises.”
GeneralPhilipBreedlove,SACEUR,February2015
PerhapsthemostsignificantchangeinUSopera7onshasbeentheresump7onofbomberstrikeexercisesovertheNorthernHemisphere
ExercisePolarGrowlonApril1,2015sawdeploymentoffourB-52sovertheNorthPoleandNorthSea.Thebomberswentallthewaytotheirlaunchpointsforair-launchedcruisemissiles.
ExercisePolarRoaronAugust1,2016sawdeploymentofsixbombers(4B-52and2B-2)overtheNorthPacific,NorthPole,NorthSea,andBal7cSea.Thedeterrenceexerciserequired24tankers.
23Hans M. Kristensen, Federation of American Scientists, 2017 | Slide
NuclearOpera:ons:UnitedStates
www.fas.org
Conclusions
GlobalnuclearforceshavebeenreducedsignificantlysinceColdWar,but…
Thepaceofreduc7onsisdecreasing
Fournuclear-armedstatesareincreasingthesizeofarsenals
Allnuclear-armedstatesaremodernizingtheirforces
Nuclear-armedstatesarereaffirmingtheimportanceandroleofnuclearweapons
Nuclearplanning(signaling,readiness,plans)isbeingrevitalized
Manynon-nuclearweaponstatescon7nuetorelyonnuclearweaponsstatesforna7onalsecurity
Noneofthenuclear-armedhaveplanstoeliminatenucleararsenalsbutseemintentonkeepingthem
Therearecurrentlynonego7a7onsaboutadop7ngnewsarmscontroltrea7es
24Hans M. Kristensen, Federation of American Scientists, 2017 | Slide
www.fas.org
25
QUESTIONS?
Addi:onalinforma:onandresourcesfromFASNuclearInforma:onProject:
FASStatusofWorldNuclearForcesOverviewhzps://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/
FASNuclearNotebookSeries(ColumninBulle:noftheAtomicScien:sts):hzp://thebulle7n.org/search/feature-type/nuclear-notebook
FASStrategicSecurityBlog:hzps://fas.org/blogs/security/
ThisBriefingandOtherNuclearRelatedFASPublica:ons:hzps://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/nuclear-informa7on-project-publica7ons/
Hans M. Kristensen, Federation of American Scientists, 2017 | Slide
Top Related