The

long

road

to

reco

very

: C

omm

unity

re

spon

ses t

o in

dust

rial d

isas

ter

Not

e to

the

read

er fr

om th

e U

NU

Th

is h

oo

k i

s an

ou

tcom

e of

a re

sear

ch p

roje

ct o

n "

Co

mm

unit

y R

esponse

s to

In

dust

rial

laz

ards

" ca

rrie

d ou

t un

der

the

Env

iron

men

t P

rogr

amm

e of

the

Uni

ted

Nat

ions

Uni

vers

ity.

"1 h

e pr

ojec

t was

init

iate

d w

ith

a co

nfer

ence

of

the

sam

e ti

tle

held

in

Min

amat

a, J

apan

, in

Nov

embe

r 19

92. T

he m

ain

obje

ctiv

es o

f th

e pr

ojec

t wer

e to

st

udy

case

s w

here

soc

ieta

l di

srup

tion

has

bee

n ca

used

by

seri

ous

envi

ronm

enta

l po

llut

ion,

and

to

exch

ange

inf

orm

atio

n an

d le

sson

s co

ncer

ning

the

com

mun

ity

reco

very

pro

cess

fol

low

ing

such

dis

aste

rs. T

he e

xpli

cit

conc

ern

was

to

lear

n fr

om

thes

e ex

peri

ence

s so

as

to a

void

sim

ilar

unf

ortu

nate

epi

sode

s in

the

fut

ure

and,

w

here

they

can

not h

e av

oide

d, to

fac

ilit

ate

com

mun

ity

reha

bili

tati

on.

The

sev

en c

ase-

stud

ies

sele

cted

cov

er a

var

iety

of

geog

raph

ical

loca

tion

s in

bot

h in

dust

rial

ized

and

dev

elop

ing

coun

trie

s. T

he h

azar

ds a

naly

sed

fall

into

the

cate

gory

of

dis

aste

r "s

urpr

ises

," a

nd r

ange

fro

m i

ndus

tria

l ac

cide

nts

to t

hose

cau

sed

by w

ar.

The

boo

k fo

cuse

s on

the

rel

ativ

ely

negl

ecte

d is

sue

of l

ong-

term

rec

over

y fr

om

indu

stri

al d

isas

ters

. It

call

s fo

r a

new

sys

tem

for

con

cept

uali

zing

and

man

agin

g in

dust

rial

haz

ards

and

dis

aste

rs.

Edite

d by

Jam

es K

. Mitc

hell

r ip, U

nite

d Na

tions

Un

iver

sity

Pre

ss

TOK

YO

• N

EW Y

OR

K •

PAR

IS

C“'t

Indu

stria

l dev

asta

tion

in Ir

an

Iran

ian

reco

very

from

in

dust

rial d

evas

tatio

n du

ring

war

with

Iraq

H

oosh

ang

Am

irah

mad

i

Intr

oduc

tion

Mai

nstre

am li

tera

ture

abo

ut in

dust

rial d

isas

ters

har

dly

reco

gniz

es th

e re

leva

nce

of w

ar. Y

et w

ar is

a m

ajor

des

troye

r of i

ndus

trial

faci

litie

s.

Ong

oing

war

s in

the

form

er Y

ugos

lavi

a an

d th

e fo

rmer

USS

R n

ot

only

hav

e ki

lled

tens

of t

hous

ands

of p

eopl

e bu

t als

o ha

ve d

estro

yed

impo

rtant

indu

stria

l pla

nts

in p

lace

s su

ch a

s Sa

raje

vo, G

rozn

yy, a

nd

Sukh

umi -

with

far-

reac

hing

con

sequ

ence

s fo

r the

eco

nom

ic s

ur-

viva

l of t

hose

citi

es. T

he P

ersi

an G

ulf W

ar o

f 199

0-19

91 d

evas

tate

d th

e in

dust

rial

bas

es o

f Ir

aq a

nd K

uwai

t, ca

used

sub

stan

tial h

arm

to

hum

ans,

and

dam

aged

the

natu

ral e

nvir

onm

ent (

El-

Baz

and

M

akha

rita

1994

). O

bvio

usly

, war

may

trig

ger t

he sa

me

kind

s of i

ndus

-tri

al d

isas

ters

that

occ

ur d

urin

g pe

acet

ime

(e.g

. fire

s, e

xplo

sion

s). I

t ca

n al

so a

dd s

ome

new

dim

ensi

ons

to in

dust

rial

dis

aste

rs (e

.g. s

ys-

tem

atic

, del

iber

ate,

and

repe

ated

des

truc

tion

of th

e sa

me

faci

litie

s;

cont

amin

atio

n of

indu

stria

l pla

nts

by c

hem

ical

wea

pons

). Fi

nally

, the

in

flue

nce

of w

ar o

n in

dust

rial

dis

aste

rs m

ay b

e in

dire

ct, a

s in

the

thre

at o

f pol

lutio

n fr

om w

eapo

ns-m

anuf

actu

ring

pla

nts,

wea

pon-

test

ing

site

s, a

nd w

eapo

ns d

umps

(Sto

ckho

lm In

tern

atio

nal P

eace

R

esea

rch

Inst

itute

[SIP

RIJ

197

7, 1

980)

. W

ar is

a m

ore

com

plex

and

per

vasi

ve p

heno

men

on th

an in

dust

rial

disa

ster

, so

plan

ning

for -

and

reco

veri

ng fr

om -

war

-rel

ated

indu

s-tri

al d

isas

ters

is li

kely

to b

e a

com

plic

ated

bus

ines

s. E

xpla

natio

ns o

f

the

orig

ins

of th

e w

ar to

uch

on m

any

diff

eren

t dee

p-se

ated

and

wid

e-ra

ngin

g at

trib

utes

of s

ocie

ty. W

ars

them

selv

es a

re re

petit

ive

phe-

nom

ena

but e

very

war

is u

niqu

e. W

ars

are

also

sem

i-con

tinuo

us a

nd

mor

e or

les

s al

l-em

brac

ing.

C—

pare

d w

ith c

onve

ntio

nal i

ndus

tria

l ha

zard

s, th

e pe

riod

of a

ctiv

e th

reat

is u

sual

ly p

rolo

nged

dur

ing

war

s an

d a

larg

er p

ropo

rtio

n of

the

citiz

enry

are

aff

ecte

d. B

ecau

se w

ars

leav

e a

mor

e co

mpl

ex a

nd p

erva

sive

impr

int o

n so

ciet

y, th

ey m

ake

post

-war

reco

nstru

ctio

n m

ore

chal

leng

ing

than

rest

orat

ion

in th

e w

ake

of in

dust

rial d

isas

ters

. Th

e ch

angi

ng n

atur

e of

con

tem

pora

ry w

ar s

igna

ls a

pos

sibi

lity

of

mor

e w

ar-r

elat

ed in

dust

rial d

isas

ters

in th

e fu

ture

as

wel

l as

a w

ider

ra

nge

of o

ther

thre

ats

to th

e en

viro

nmen

t and

hum

an h

ealth

(Win

ne-

feld

and

Mor

ris 1

994)

. Thi

s is

an

outc

ome

of tr

ends

in th

ree

fact

ors

--th

e te

chni

cal s

ophi

stic

atio

n of

wea

ponr

y, th

e st

rate

gic

logi

c of

tar-

getin

g a

natio

n's

indu

stria

l cap

acity

dur

ing

war

, and

the

incr

easi

ngly

re

gion

al n

atur

e of

con

flic

t. A

dvan

ces

in w

ar-m

akin

g te

chno

logi

es

such

as

met

hods

of s

urve

illan

ce, p

reci

sion

-gui

ded

shor

t-ra

nge

mis

-si

les,

che

mic

al a

nd b

iolo

gica

l war

fare

, hel

icop

ters

, and

all-

wea

ther

an

d ni

ght v

isio

n sy

stem

s, a

mon

g ot

hers

, ens

ure

incr

ease

d de

stru

ctiv

e ca

pabi

litie

s. A

nat

ion'

s in

dust

rial

cap

acity

and

ass

ocia

ted

civi

lian

popu

latio

ns a

re in

crea

sing

ly fa

vour

ed ta

rget

s be

caus

e th

ey g

ener

ate

inco

me

and

mat

eria

ls n

eede

d to

mai

ntai

n th

e w

ar e

ffor

t. R

egio

nal

conf

lict i

s un

ques

tiona

bly

on th

e ri

se (e

.g. B

osni

a, A

rmen

ia, A

zer-

baija

n, S

omal

ia, A

fgha

nist

an, R

wan

da, P

hilip

pine

s, S

ri La

nka)

. Dur

-in

g su

ch c

onfli

cts,

dam

age

is u

sual

ly re

stric

ted

to s

mal

l are

as, w

hich

su

stai

n re

peat

ed a

ttack

s an

d di

spro

porti

onat

ely

heav

y lo

sses

. W

hat f

ollo

ws

is a

cas

e-st

udy

of in

dust

rial h

azar

ds a

ssoc

iate

d w

ith

Iran

's ei

ght-

year

war

aga

inst

Iraq

(198

0- 1

988)

. Man

y of

the

com

-m

uniti

es in

Iran

's oi

l- an

d ga

s-pr

oduc

ing

regi

ons

wer

e af

fect

ed b

y th

is

conf

lict.

The

war

's im

pact

on

indu

stry

was

mer

ely

one

face

t of t

he

wid

er c

onfli

ct, s

o th

e ca

se-s

tudy

is d

iscu

ssed

in th

e la

rger

con

text

of

the

conf

lict's

soc

io-e

cono

mic

impa

ct o

n Ir

ania

n so

ciet

y (C

orde

sman

19

90).

Bec

ause

nei

ther

an

accu

rate

nor

a fi

rst-h

and

acco

unt o

f Ira

q's

expe

rienc

e w

ith th

is w

ar is

read

ily a

vaila

ble,

the

pers

pect

ive

is c

on-

scio

usly

Iran

ian.

' Alth

ough

the

acco

unt m

ay b

e in

com

plet

e, th

e in

for-

mat

ion

is n

ever

thel

ess

belie

ved

to b

e ac

cura

te.

By

delin

eatin

g Ir

an's

expe

rienc

e w

ith th

e w

ar a

nd re

cons

truct

ion,

it

is in

tend

ed n

ot o

nly

to a

naly

se th

e re

latio

nshi

p of

war

, com

mun

ity

dest

ruct

ion,

and

indu

stri

al d

isas

ter b

ut a

lso

to s

how

how

par

ticul

ar

issu

es o

f rec

over

y fr

om in

dust

rial d

isas

ters

can

bec

ome

caug

ht u

p in

br

oade

r con

cern

s ab

out r

ecov

ery

from

oth

er e

vent

s th

at in

flict

mor

e

148

149

•1.

fahu

n D

ehlo

ran

•

Sh

im•

0

Kilo

met

ers

200

°M

IRA

N

Qm

r-e

KE

RM

AN

SH

AIIA

N•

Kerm

ansh

ah •

Ilan o

B

AG

HD

AD

•

Kho

rrut

naba

d

ILA

NI

Al A

rnar

th •

E= Wa

r dam

aged

pro

vinc

es

•Pr

ovin

cial

Cap

ital

•C

ity

•Maul

4Ifr

KIIIIZ

ES

TA

N

llove

lseh

•

(sf

ID A

lma,

.

Al B

asra

SA

UD

I A

RA

BIA

Rut

gers

Car

togr

aphy

199

3

',Ham

adan

Indu

stri

al d

evas

tatio

n in

Iran

Fig.

6.1

F

ront

-lin

e pr

ovin

ces

of I

ran,

198

0-19

88 (

Sour

ce:

Am

irah

mad

i 198

7: 1

36)

(red

raw

n)

in s

igni

fican

t num

bers

, tho

ugh

prec

ise

figur

es a

re d

iffic

ult t

o de

ter-

min

e. O

ne s

ourc

e lis

ts 2

0 ch

emic

al ro

cket

atta

cks,

284

che

mic

al a

ir at

tack

s, a

nd 7

4 ch

emic

al a

rtill

ery

atta

cks,

whi

ch k

illed

ove

r 5,7

00

peop

le, m

ostly

civ

ilian

s liv

ing

in u

rban

are

as (S

hem

irani

199

3). T

he

Iraq

i Kur

dish

tow

n of

Hal

abch

eh w

as a

lmos

t tot

ally

des

troy

ed b

y a

chem

ical

bom

bard

men

t und

erta

ken

by Ir

aq to

pre

vent

it fa

lling

into

th

e ha

nds

of Ir

ania

n tr

oops

. Eve

n no

w, m

any

year

s af

ter t

he e

nd o

f op

en h

ostil

ities

, bot

h co

untr

ies

still

reta

in s

tock

pile

s of

che

mic

al

wea

pons

.

151

Am

irah

mad

i

enco

mpa

ssin

g ty

pes

of d

amag

e. F

urth

er, t

his

chap

ter e

xplo

res

inte

r-co

nnec

tions

am

ong

loca

l-le

vel r

econ

stru

ctio

n pr

iori

ties,

nat

iona

l-le

vel g

oals

, and

inte

rven

tion

by th

e in

tern

atio

nal c

omm

unity

in th

e po

st-w

ar p

eace

and

reco

nstr

uctio

n ef

fort

s. It

is h

oped

that

the

case

-st

udy

will

als

o pr

ovid

e in

sigh

ts th

at le

ad to

war

d cr

eatio

n of

mod

els

of

indu

stria

l dis

aste

r im

pact

ass

essm

ent a

nd re

cove

ry fo

r war

-dam

aged

so

ciet

ies

and

will

iden

tify

obst

acle

s to

reco

nstr

uctio

n an

d w

ays

of

impr

ovin

g im

plem

enta

tion.

Mili

tary

and

stra

tegi

c con

text

Iraq

inva

ded

Iran

in S

epte

mbe

r 198

0 an

d in

itiat

ed a

pro

tract

ed la

nd,

sea,

and

air

conf

lict t

hat l

aste

d un

til A

ugus

t 198

8, w

hen

it w

as b

roug

ht

to a

n en

d by

Uni

ted

Nat

ions

Sec

urity

Cou

ncil

Res

olut

ion

598.

The

in

vasi

on f

ollo

wed

Sad

dam

Hus

sein

's un

ilate

ral a

brog

atio

n of

the

Tre

aty

of A

lgie

rs, w

hich

he

had

him

self

neg

otia

ted

with

the

then

Sh

ah o

f Ira

n in

197

5.2

Five

Iran

ian

prov

ince

s th

at b

orde

r Ira

q - K

huze

stan

, Ila

m, K

er-

man

shah

an, K

urde

stan

, and

Wes

t Aze

rbai

jan

- bec

ame

activ

e th

ea-

tres

of a

ir an

d gr

ound

con

flict

s, w

hile

ano

ther

11

prov

ince

s su

ffer

ed

sust

aine

d ae

rial b

omba

rdm

ent (

fig. 6

.1).

Thes

e fiv

e pr

ovin

ces

acco

unt

for 1

0.8

per c

ent o

f Ira

n's

land

are

a an

d in

clud

e th

e co

untr

y's

mos

t he

avily

pop

ulat

ed a

nd d

evel

oped

regi

on. I

n 19

80, t

he w

ar-t

orn

re-

gion

's po

pula

tion

dens

ity w

as 3

5.4

per s

quar

e m

ile, c

ompa

red

with

23

.2 fo

r the

nat

iona

l ave

rage

(Am

irah

mad

i 199

0b).

Bef

ore

the

war

, K

huze

stan

boa

sted

maj

or e

cono

mic

est

ablis

hmen

ts, i

nclu

ding

por

t fa

cilit

ies,

ste

el fa

ctor

ies,

oil

wel

ls a

nd re

finer

ies,

pet

roch

emic

al c

om-

plex

es, a

nd a

maj

or h

ydro

elec

tric

dam

and

irri

gatio

n pr

ojec

t. K

er-

man

shah

an w

as c

onsi

dere

d an

impo

rtan

t cen

tre

for a

gric

ultu

re a

nd

trad

ition

al in

dust

ry. N

earl

y 14

,000

squ

are

kilo

met

res

of Ir

ania

n te

r-rit

ory

wer

e oc

cupi

ed b

y Ir

aqi f

orce

s fo

r mos

t of t

he w

ar.

The

Iran

-Ira

q w

ar w

as u

nusu

al fo

r a n

umbe

r of r

easo

ns. T

houg

h it

was

the

long

est c

onve

ntio

nal w

ar o

f the

twen

tieth

cen

tury

, it w

as

conf

ined

to a

rela

tivel

y sm

all l

and

area

. A m

ixtu

re o

f anc

ient

and

m

oder

n ta

ctic

s w

ere

empl

oyed

, inc

ludi

ng in

tens

ive

"hum

an w

ave"

as

saul

ts (i

.e. t

he s

imul

tane

ous

conv

erge

nce

of th

ousa

nds

of a

rmed

tr

oops

on

one

targ

et) a

nd a

"w

ar o

n ci

ties"

that

incl

uded

the

use

of

tech

nolo

gica

lly a

dvan

ced

artil

lery

to ta

rget

dis

tant

indu

stri

es p

re-

cise

ly (S

hem

irani

199

3). I

raq

used

dire

ct m

issi

le a

ttack

s as

par

t of a

n ex

plic

it st

rate

gy to

dep

opul

ate

settl

emen

ts a

nd s

tran

gle

the

Iran

ian

econ

omy.

The

Iraq

i arm

y al

so u

sed

chem

ical

and

bio

logi

cal w

eapo

ns

150

Antir

ahm

adi

Impa

cts o

f the

war

on

hum

an h

ealth

and

long

-term

hab

itabi

lity

of th

e re

gion

Hum

an 1

,-, sse

s

Eig

ht y

ears

of i

nten

se c

onfl

ict e

xact

ed h

eavy

tolls

on

the

popu

la-

tion

of Ir

an. T

here

wer

e ap

prox

imat

ely

300,

000

Iran

ian

casu

altie

s,

incl

udin

g 61

,000

mis

sing

in a

ctio

n an

d 5,

000

in Ir

aqi p

riso

ns. T

he

relie

f and

reco

nstru

ctio

n pr

oces

s w

as fu

rther

com

plic

ated

by

the

fact

th

at a

noth

er 2

.5 m

illio

n Ir

ania

ns h

ave

beco

me

hom

eles

s, h

ave

lost

th

eir j

obs,

or a

re d

ispl

aced

. Mos

t of t

hese

hav

e ta

ken

sanc

tuar

y in

re

fuge

e ca

mps

, mak

eshi

ft s

hack

s, a

nd te

mpo

rary

she

lters

in m

ajor

ur

ban

cent

res o

r in

perip

hera

l are

as o

f war

zon

es (A

mira

hmad

i 199

0b:

63).

A g

over

nmen

t sur

vey

take

n af

ter t

he e

nd o

f hos

tiliti

es re

veal

ed

that

593

,000

civ

ilian

s w

ere

phys

ical

ly a

nd/o

r men

tally

dis

able

d by

the

war

(Uni

ted

Nat

ions

Sec

reta

ry-G

ener

al 1

991a

: 48)

. T

he fu

ture

pro

duct

ivity

of I

ran

has

been

per

man

ently

alte

red;

the

ener

gy a

nd c

apac

ity o

f mill

ions

of p

rodu

ctiv

e w

orki

ng p

eopl

e w

ho

serv

ed in

the

war

hav

e be

en ir

retr

ieva

bly

lost

. Alm

ost a

ll of

them

w

ere

youn

g an

d de

dica

ted

to th

e Ir

ania

n re

volu

tion.

Hum

an d

evel

-op

men

t inc

ludi

ng e

duca

tion

— h

as b

een

grie

vous

ly a

ffec

ted.

In th

e w

ar re

gion

alo

ne, m

ore

than

20

per c

ent (

9,30

0) o

f the

pre

-war

cla

ss-

room

s (4

4,30

0) w

ere

dam

aged

or d

estro

yed.

Ove

r a th

ird (4

50,0

00) o

f th

e re

gion

's 1.

25 m

illio

n st

uden

ts fl

ed e

lsew

here

. Thi

s pl

aced

gre

at

stra

ins

on re

ceiv

ing

scho

ol s

yste

ms,

whi

ch w

ere

forc

ed to

teac

h pu

pils

in

con

tinuo

us s

hift

s (U

nite

d N

atio

ns S

ecre

tary

-Gen

eral

199

1a: 4

5).

The

prov

isio

n of

hea

lth c

are

was

sim

ilarly

inte

rrup

ted:

" ..

. a to

tal o

f 10

2 'h

ealth

hou

ses',

84

rura

l hea

lth c

ente

rs, 8

0 ur

ban

heal

th c

ente

rs

and

12 p

rovi

ncia

l and

/or

dist

rict

hea

lth c

ente

rs w

ere

dest

roye

d"

(Uni

ted

Nat

ions

Sec

reta

ry-G

ener

al 1

991a

: 48)

. Wat

er a

nd s

ewer

age

syst

ems

in th

e ar

ea w

ere

also

hea

vily

dam

aged

. Th

e de

mog

raph

ic p

rofil

e of

Iran

has

bee

n gr

eatly

alte

red

sinc

e th

e be

ginn

ing

of th

e w

ar. M

any

of th

e ch

ange

s ar

e a

dire

ct c

onse

quen

ce

of g

over

nmen

t pol

icy

to in

crea

se th

e na

tiona

l pop

ulat

ion.

Dur

ing

the

war

yea

rs, p

opul

atio

n gr

ew a

t mor

e th

an 3

.7 p

er c

ent a

nnua

lly; b

y 19

88, t

otal

num

bers

wer

e ab

out 5

0 pe

r cen

t gre

ater

tha

n in

197

6. In

19

76, 1

7.2

per c

ent o

f Ira

n's p

opul

atio

n liv

ed in

the

five

war

-aff

ecte

d pr

ovin

ces;

by

1986

, the

pro

port

ion

had

falle

n to

15

per c

ent.

At

pres

ent,

45 p

er c

ent o

f th

e na

tiona

l pop

ulat

ion

are

unde

r the

age

of

14. C

onco

mita

nt d

eman

ds fo

r soc

ial s

ervi

ces a

nd e

duca

tiona

l fac

ilitie

s

152

Indu

stria

l dev

asta

tion

in Ir

an

pose

a c

halle

nge

for a

utho

ritie

s en

gage

d in

the

allo

catio

n of

reso

urce

s fo

r rec

onst

ruct

ion

(Uni

ted

Nat

ions

Sec

reta

ry-G

ener

al 1

991

a: 2

9). M

ore

rece

ntly

, the

gov

ernm

ent h

as a

cted

to s

low

pop

ulat

ion

grow

th. T

he

new

pol

icy

seem

s to

be

havi

ng s

ome

effe

ct, b

ut th

e co

untr

y's

pop-

ulat

ion

is st

ill g

row

ing

fast

eno

ugh

(3.2

per

cen

t in

1992

) to

caus

e se

ri-ou

s al

arm

.

Env

iron

men

tal d

amag

e

Info

rmat

ion

abou

t env

ironm

enta

l da

mag

e in

flict

ed b

y th

e w

ar is

sca

t-te

red

and

inco

nclu

sive

. Thi

s is

prim

arily

bec

ause

the

Iran

ian

auth

or-

ities

who

wer

e ch

arge

d w

ith r

econ

stru

ctio

n fo

cuse

d at

tent

ion

on

imm

edia

te re

lief e

ffor

ts a

nd o

n re

build

ing

both

the

econ

omy

and

the

mili

tary

. Mor

eove

r, in

con

trast

to th

e G

ulf W

ar o

f 199

0, th

e in

tern

a-tio

nal c

omm

unity

did

not

mon

itor e

nviro

nmen

tal e

ffec

ts o

f the

Iran

--Ir

aq w

ar. T

his

is a

ttrib

utab

le b

oth

to d

iffic

ultie

s th

at th

e m

ass

med

ia

expe

rien

ced

in re

port

ing

the

war

and

to th

e fa

ct th

at Ir

an h

ad fa

llen

out o

f fav

our w

ith W

este

rn g

over

nmen

ts th

at m

ight

oth

erw

ise

have

ta

ken

an in

tere

st.

Des

pite

the

lack

of r

elia

ble

data

on

envi

ronm

enta

l im

pact

s,

som

e ef

fect

s ar

e kn

own

(Haw

ley

1992

; Joc

hnic

k an

d N

orm

and

n.d.

). Fo

r ex

ampl

e, it

is k

now

n th

at e

xten

sive

min

efie

lds

and

unex

plod

ed w

ar

mat

eria

ls in

all

of Ir

an's

five

war

-affe

cted

pro

vinc

es h

ave

pose

d da

ily

haza

rds t

o lo

cal p

opul

atio

ns. R

eza

Mal

ekza

deh,

repr

esen

tativ

e of

the

Iran

ian

Min

istry

of H

ealth

, rep

orte

d in

199

1 th

at a

t lea

st 1

0 pe

ople

a

day

wer

e w

ound

ed, m

aim

ed, o

r kill

ed b

y liv

e w

ar m

uniti

ons (

Uni

ted

Nat

ions

Sec

reta

ry-G

ener

al 1

991a

: 29)

. It i

s al

so k

now

n th

at g

roun

d ba

ttles

and

aer

ial b

omba

rdm

ents

cau

sed

exte

nsiv

e de

stru

ctio

n of

for-

ests

— a

pro

cess

that

was

exa

cerb

ated

by

peop

le se

arch

ing

for c

ooki

ng

fuel

to re

plac

e no

rmal

sup

plie

s; ru

n-of

f and

ero

sion

hav

e in

crea

sed

as

a re

sult.

Dur

ing

the

conf

lict,

mor

e th

an 3

mill

ion

date

pal

ms a

nd 5

,000

he

ctar

es o

f orc

hard

s w

ere

dest

roye

d. S

ome

130,

000

hect

ares

of n

atu-

ral f

ores

ts a

nd 7

53,0

00 h

ecta

res

of p

astu

re la

nd in

the

war

-aff

licte

d pr

ovin

ces

wer

e al

so re

nder

ed u

nusa

ble.

Th

e im

pact

of w

ar o

n fa

rmla

nd w

as e

qual

ly s

igni

fican

t. In

Khu

ze-

stan

, ]la

m, a

nd K

erm

ansh

ahan

, " ..

. rec

onst

ruct

ion

of th

e fa

rmin

g su

b-se

ctor

invo

lves

land

-leve

ling

and

grad

ing

of a

bout

251

,000

ha

of

irrig

ated

farm

land

and

roug

h le

velin

g of

53,

700

ha o

f rai

n-fe

d la

nd"

(Uni

ted

Nat

ions

Sec

reta

ry-G

ener

al 1

991a

: 40-

41).

Farm

land

s in

the

five

war

-impa

cted

pro

vinc

es a

ppea

r to

be c

onta

min

ated

by

toxi

c m

ate-

153

Atn

eral

imad

t

rial

s em

anat

ing

from

che

mic

al a

nd b

iolo

gica

l wea

pons

. Dur

ing

the

war

, pro

duce

from

sou

ther

n Ir

an w

as c

onsi

dere

d un

heal

thy

and

coul

d no

t be

mar

kete

d, th

ereb

y dr

ivin

g up

pric

es a

nd c

reat

ing

shor

tage

s.

The

situ

atio

n w

as n

ot s

impl

y on

e of

dir

ect d

estr

uctio

n an

d co

n-ta

min

atio

n. T

he p

robl

ems

of w

arfa

re w

ere

com

poun

ded

by o

ther

pr

oble

ms,

incl

udin

g re

mov

al o

f top

soil,

com

pact

ion

and

flood

ing

of

agric

ultu

ral l

ands

, mod

ifica

tions

of r

iver

flow

s, in

terr

uptio

n of

irrig

a-tio

n w

ater

sup

plie

s, a

nd w

ater

logg

ing

and

salin

izat

ion

due

to s

alt

wat

er fl

owin

g on

to a

gric

ultu

ral l

and

whe

n irr

igat

ion

cana

ls w

ere

dest

roye

d. F

inal

ly, s

tudy

of c

onta

min

atio

n in

rura

l are

as is

ham

pere

d by

the

pres

ence

of u

nide

ntifi

ed m

inef

ield

s (U

nite

d N

atio

ns S

ecre

tary

-G

ener

al 1

991a

: 28-

48).

Leve

ls o

f env

ironm

enta

l int

oxic

atio

n ar

e m

uch

mor

e di

ffic

ult t

o as

certa

in th

an d

irect

des

truct

ion,

par

ticul

arly

bec

ause

of t

he la

ck o

f re

cord

s m

entio

ned

abov

e bu

t als

o be

caus

e in

toxi

catio

n as

sess

men

t re

quire

s fai

rly so

phis

ticat

ed te

chno

logy

that

has

bee

n ne

ither

ava

il-ab

le in

Iran

nor

sup

plie

d by

the

inte

rnat

iona

l env

ironm

enta

l com

-m

unity

. Non

e th

e le

ss, i

t is p

ossi

ble

to p

rovi

de a

gen

eral

ove

rvie

w o

f th

e im

pact

s on

a re

gion

-by-

regi

on b

asis.

Th

e so

uth-

wes

tern

pro

vinc

es h

ave

expe

rienc

ed e

xtre

me

envi

ron-

men

tal d

amag

e, p

artic

ular

ly in

the

coas

tal s

trip

and

alon

g m

ain

inla

nd

wat

erw

ays.

The

Kar

oun

Riv

er, o

nce

the

mai

nsta

y of

eco

nom

ic a

ctiv

-ity

, is

now

hea

vily

pol

lute

d an

d un

usab

le. A

mon

g th

e ru

ral p

op-

ulat

ion,

a h

igh

inci

denc

e of

dis

ease

s, es

peci

ally

eye

infe

ctio

ns, s

tom

-ac

h ill

ness

es, a

nd s

kin

ailm

ents

, has

bee

n re

porte

d (U

nite

d N

atio

ns

Secr

etar

y-G

ener

al 1

991a

: 28-

48).

The

exac

t cau

se o

f the

se a

ilmen

ts is

not k

now

n, b

ut h

ealth

off

icia

ls n

ote

that

the

rate

of i

ncid

ence

is m

uch

high

er th

an in

are

as u

naff

ecte

d by

the

war

. Sin

ce th

e w

ar's

end

ther

e ha

s bee

n an

ala

rmin

g in

crea

se in

hea

lth-th

reat

enin

g in

sect

s and

pes

ts.

Ther

e ha

s als

o be

en a

n in

crea

sed

inci

denc

e of

acu

te re

spira

tory

dis

-ea

se, p

ossib

ly a

s a re

sult

of w

ar-in

duce

d to

xins

in th

e en

viro

nmen

t, as

w

ell a

s an

incr

ease

in

the

num

ber o

f tho

se a

fflic

ted

by se

vere

dia

r-rh

oea,

whi

ch c

an b

e m

ore

dire

ctly

link

ed to

the

disr

uptio

n of

the

prov

isio

n of

fres

h w

ater

sup

plie

s.

The

coa

stal

reg

ion

betw

een

Aba

dan

and

the

Stra

it of

Hor

muz

, en

com

pass

ing

appr

oxim

atel

y 25

0 sq

uare

kilo

met

res

of b

each

, was

co

vere

d in

tar a

nd a

spha

lt. T

hese

subs

tanc

es p

osed

a g

rave

thre

at to

al

read

y en

dang

ered

spec

ies a

nd p

rote

ctiv

e ve

geta

tion.

Lea

ks fr

om o

il ta

nker

s at

tack

ed in

the

Gul

f are

bel

ieve

d to

be

the

caus

e (W

alke

r 19

89).

Oil-

rela

ted

pollu

tion

is a

lso

attri

bute

d to

the

bom

bing

of o

il pl

atfo

rms

in th

e G

ulf.

Cap

ping

thes

e oi

l wel

ls h

as ta

ken

year

s of

1111

1111

1111

11 th

'Ia.V

ial1

011

Iii

Iran

effo

rt. T

he te

rrito

ry o

f Ira

n in

clud

es m

any

isla

nds

in th

e G

ulf,

20 o

f w

hich

hav

e be

en a

dver

sely

aff

ecte

d by

oil

pollu

tion

and

oil s

pills

. The

pr

awn-

fish

ing

indu

stry

has

bee

n se

vere

ly th

reat

ened

, ow

ing

to th

e de

stru

ctio

n 01

man

grov

e an

d se

a-gr

ass

cultu

res

in th

e co

asta

l reg

ions

of

the

Gul

f. Se

a gr

asse

s ar

e af

fect

ed b

y to

xic

hydr

ocar

bons

and

con

-ta

min

atio

n of

sed

imen

ts; o

ils p

enet

rate

the

stom

ata

and

kill

entir

e se

a-gr

ass c

omm

uniti

es th

at p

rovi

de n

urse

ry g

roun

ds fo

r pra

wns

(Uni

ted

Nat

ions

Sec

reta

ry-G

ener

al 1

991b

: 29)

. In

addi

tion,

the

dest

ruct

ion

of

all o

r par

t of t

he p

raw

n ye

ar c

lass

has

cum

ulat

ive

effe

cts o

n su

bseq

uent

ca

tche

s. A

noth

er s

ourc

e of

con

tam

inan

ts is

the

sunk

en s

hips

and

wre

cks

that

stil

l lie

in a

nd a

long

the

Shat

t-al-A

rab

wat

erw

ay. T

he m

agni

tude

of

the

prob

lem

incr

ease

s with

tim

e be

caus

e cu

rren

ts c

arry

con

tam

inan

t ca

rgoe

s th

roug

hout

the

wat

erw

ay s

yste

m a

nd o

ut to

the

Gul

f. T

his

pose

s a

dist

inct

thre

at to

the

fishi

ng in

dust

ry a

s w

ell a

s to

the

ecol

ogy

of th

e ar

ea, a

nd q

uite

pos

sibl

y to

the

adja

cent

wat

er-ta

ble.

The

nat

ure

of th

e ca

rgo

in th

ese

ship

s is

unk

now

n an

d on

ly a

sub

stan

tial i

nves

-tig

atio

n w

ould

reve

al th

e ex

act c

onta

min

ants

. The

est

imat

ed c

ost o

f cl

ean-

up h

as b

een

put b

y va

rious

sou

rces

at $

2 bi

llion

to $

4 bi

llion

. N

o le

ss th

an tw

o ye

ars

of c

ontin

uous

wor

k is

nee

ded

to re

habi

litat

e th

e riv

er.

Furt

her d

esta

biliz

atio

n of

the

envi

ronm

ent i

n so

uthe

rn Ir

an h

as

resu

lted

from

dis

turb

ance

s in

the

Gul

f reg

ion

durin

g th

e U

S-le

d Pe

rsia

n G

ulf W

ar o

f 199

0-19

91. S

ome

of th

e en

viro

nmen

tal e

ffec

ts th

at a

re

now

obs

erve

d in

sou

ther

n Ir

an m

ay b

e tra

ceab

le in

par

t to

that

war

.'

Dam

age

to h

uman

set

tlem

ents

and

the

econ

omy

Dam

age

to se

ttlem

ents

in Ir

an w

as e

norm

ous.

The

war

wip

ed o

ut 4

,000

vi

llage

s, da

mag

ed 5

2 ci

ties,

and

destr

oyed

abo

ut 1

20,0

00 h

ouse

s; 6

of

the

citie

s wer

e co

mpl

etel

y le

velle

d w

hile

ano

ther

15

sust

aine

d da

m-

age

of 3

0 -8

0 pe

r cen

t. Th

e ci

ty o

f Kho

rram

shah

r (19

80 p

opul

atio

n 30

0,00

0) w

as Ir

an's

mos

t im

porta

nt p

ort o

n th

e G

ulf.

It no

w li

es in

ne

ar-to

tal r

uin,

hav

ing

sust

aine

d de

stru

ctio

n of

80

per c

ent o

f its

bu

ildin

gs. I

mpa

cts i

n ru

ral a

reas

wer

e eq

ually

gre

at: o

ver 3

0 pe

r cen

t of

the

villa

ges i

n th

e fiv

e m

ost w

ar-to

rn p

rovi

nces

wer

e co

mpl

etel

y de

stro

yed;

oth

ers

sust

aine

d se

vere

dam

age.

The

mon

etar

y va

lue

of

dam

age

to h

uman

set

tlem

ents

was

est

imat

ed a

t $13

bill

ion

for t

he

peri

od S

epte

mbe

r 198

0 to

Sep

tem

ber 1

985.

For

the

entir

e w

ar,

hum

an s

ettle

men

ts d

amag

e m

ay h

ave

exce

eded

$18

bill

ion

(Am

ir-ah

mad

i 199

2a: 8

2).

154

155

I 2 eo 2 1 Si a r. O E is 5

0

•5

DU

0. '9

•g

CD N CD N 00 00 ,t 00 vn vn

.4. 4

7CI ,t 01,

00

r-

. .

. .

. .

. .

c4 r

4 en e

n

on en r

- vl

ol o

n •

A--.1

en o

n N

e. e.

rq

8 8

8 8

8 8

8 8

ei*.

•

c43 r'

g 4

n E.8

V2 g;

ch.

q; ei

47 00 c

D e

n et

un NC ,

r (s.1

Nr-

CD 00 vn vn N NO

r- e

n e.

4D

el e. e

l 410

oo

e4

-4. s

o r-

c3 c)

92

47 410 e

A o

n N u

n 0'

. 0'

st ,s

On

on In V

D VD

CD

CD N

•

et V1

wl wl

01 ,r.

ocr

r- oo

od

on v

i 7t

.zr M

on

N N

el

.er

r- on

oo C

D t".

.. r-

el CA O

n 00

•en

.1-

en CO

en on C

D

§ r-

CD

oC r-

so .9 § i

r- F,

't 71- .1-

cn c,

,-...

„ 1-..

. 01, N.

N.

00

, ,-^

„

g 4 gg * T,

g g T

-1 ;71

' N

VI

cv u

n et r- el

-. e

l

en c

4

c4

e.

e.

,-.

a 73g

g FA

‘11...ma° !!

CN

00 C- • In

0'r

CD C

A 00

en

Ch

en 0

0 cr e.

In

• r- •nch

on

,r 47 00

ri

r- e

n cD

e.

oti

,4

•vi

00

71 A I

n 2;

,r43 N

VD

Cr;

0 o

gu 0 --

a) Li 2

5g ;8

Fx1 S2

n 4

g E; 2

8 L

Cr,

Ch C

h Ch

O'

N 0

it

r. ,4

r.

r.

r.

O

GO N N

A m

irah

mad

i

Thre

e ty

pes o

f dir

ect e

cono

mic

dam

age

resu

lting

from

the

war

wer

e di

sting

uish

ed b

y th

e Ira

nian

gov

ernm

ent —

bui

ldin

gs a

nd in

stalla

tions

, m

achi

nery

and

equ

ipm

ent,

and

mat

eria

ls a

nd g

oods

(see

tabl

e 6.

1).

The

gove

rnm

ent a

lso

calc

ulat

ed a

sepa

rate

ind

irec

t eco

nom

ic d

amag

e ca

tego

ry th

at in

clud

es o

ppor

tuni

ty c

osts

but

exc

lude

s dam

age

to th

e de

fenc

e se

ctor

and

hum

an lo

sses

; a v

alue

-add

ed a

ppro

ach

was

use

d w

ithin

a n

atio

nal i

ncom

e-ac

coun

ting

fram

ewor

k. T

he se

ven

econ

omic

se

ctor

s fo

r whi

ch d

ata

are

avai

labl

e in

clud

e ag

ricu

lture

, min

ing,

m

anuf

actu

ring,

oil,

ele

ctric

ity/g

as/w

ater

, con

stru

ctio

n an

d ho

usin

g,

and

serv

ices

.' B

y th

e tim

e th

at Ir

an a

nd Ir

aq a

gree

d to

a c

ease

-fire

, Ira

n's i

ndus

-try

was

ope

ratin

g at

onl

y 20

-30

per c

ent o

f cap

acity

. Dire

ct e

cono

mic

da

mag

e (i.

e. p

hysi

cal d

estru

ctio

n) in

flict

ed o

n Ir

an a

mou

nted

to a

ye

arly

ave

rage

of 2

3.35

per

cen

t of t

he c

ount

ry's

gros

s dom

estic

pro

d-uc

t (G

DP)

. The

UN

Sec

urity

Cou

ncil

estim

ates

that

the

cost

of d

irect

ec

onom

ic d

amag

e, e

xclu

ding

mili

tary

dam

age

and

loss

of h

uman

life

, am

ount

ed to

$97

.3 b

illio

n. U

sing

a di

ffere

nt e

xcha

nge

rate

, the

Iran

ian

gove

rnm

ent p

uts t

he fi

gure

muc

h hi

gher

, at o

ver $

300

billi

on. M

ilita

ry

dam

age

was

est

imat

ed a

t $50

bill

ion.

Som

e ob

serv

ers e

stim

ate

that

th

e to

tal c

ost

of d

amag

e is

in th

e ne

ighb

ourh

ood

of U

S$1,

000

billi

on

(Ath

ari 1

991)

. O

f all

the

prod

uctiv

e se

ctor

s, th

e oi

l sec

tor s

usta

ined

by

far t

he

mos

t dam

age

(tabl

e 6.

2; fi

g. 6

.2).

This

sect

or a

ccou

nted

for 2

3.96

per

ce

nt o

f the

tota

l dire

ct e

cono

mic

dam

age

and

59.4

5 pe

r cen

t of t

he

dam

age

infli

cted

on

all p

rodu

ctiv

e se

ctor

s. In

thes

e se

ctor

s, ne

arly

86

per c

ent o

f all

the

dam

age

infli

cted

on

build

ings

and

inst

alla

tions

was

bo

rne

by th

e oi

l ind

ustry

. O

il in

stal

latio

ns in

the

Gul

f reg

ion

wer

e a

prim

ary

atta

ck ta

rget

. Th

e m

ain

Irani

an lo

adin

g te

rmin

al, l

ocat

ed in

Kha

rg Is

land

, was

bad

ly

dam

aged

in A

ugus

t 198

2, e

ffect

ivel

y ha

lvin

g Ira

nian

oil

expo

rts. B

efor

e th

e at

tack

s, K

harg

had

an

offlo

adin

g ca

paci

ty o

f 14

mill

ion

barre

ls of

oi

l per

day

at 1

4 be

rthin

g fa

cilit

ies;

its 1

993

capa

city

was

just

2 m

illio

n ba

rrel

s pe

r day

. Of 3

9 cr

ude

oil s

tora

ge ta

nks,

21

wer

e co

mpl

etel

y de

stro

yed

by fi

res r

esul

ting

from

atta

cks;

ass

umin

g fu

ll ca

paci

ty, o

il sp

ills

into

the

Gul

f fro

m th

e K

harg

faci

lity

alon

e am

ount

ed to

12

mill

ion

barr

els (

Uni

ted

Nat

ions

Sec

reta

ry-G

ener

al 1

991a

: 29)

Th

e oi

l ind

ustry

was

, and

is, e

xtre

mel

y im

porta

nt to

the

econ

omic

vi

abili

ty o

f Ira

n. O

il re

venu

es a

ccou

nted

for 5

1 pe

r cen

t of t

otal

gov

-er

nmen

t rev

enue

s in

1983

-198

4 an

d 44

per

cen

t of t

otal

gov

ernm

ent

reve

nues

in 1

986-

1987

. In

fact

, oil

reve

nues

gen

eral

ly a

ccou

nt fo

r ov

er 9

5 pe

r cen

t of I

ran'

s for

eign

exc

hang

e ea

rnin

gs a

nd p

ay fo

r the

156

157

N

00

cr,

N m

s

? gs; 'Pm

04.

a4

S' 4

6,'"

0!! 2

306%

Man

uluc

lurI

ng 5

2a%

M

lnin

p 01

2%

Agr

icul

lure

579

%

Elec

, Gas

. Wal

er 4

26%

C

onsl

ruct

ion

0.80%

Ser

vice

s 50

7%

Indu

stri

al d

evas

tatio

n in

Ira

n

c i ic.,

_q

n .." .

..--..'-'

"

N

li. (. 4 p

.. 'D

- F^ ̂ A

i'° 1

e'l

mi‘o ch

.4:

P4 '

N7as "r

. is:

g n

es;

n 0

ta. '

. 2.

g I

°1 ^1°

1 N

0

(Ni

(.4 N

-

:pi Ti

- .0

tE

l a

i". 4:

E F

:. il

°. ; ;

i ,A

°..

_. •-,,

..`g

'NF'

2,n5

;:giis

e - -

_ 2

E

41 ei 0, " -•• 0

.,i "

A ,..,,,

I

.s

•

,, 71.

,--? ° ...r t-F

-' .Nir

i 0s N

00 ,

.a.

.O ..

... .

.2

,,i --,

so &

4 .T

. ic:

8

E2 :

: ? -

0 .1

M

e%

v

N -

c,

vl v)

00

a'

ffi °..4

g ✓1

o, 2 T

1 °

'2' ' ' '

' -

4. 4

,(4 P.

4 -7

4...m.0

4,..04

v r, . 1

E2 1 ;:

rz N

"P ' yo.'4

R. n m

(-sir '''. i ''.

'

F. r

01

i N

I ..

_. ,, .

...,

42 1

r-

m w

-, m

m

•-

, R

_ -

i

11 1

g 5

'51 f

.1 i s

, 1 !

5 !!

--; t- -. N

N r

:i ,c

,

; 1

.0

13

VI

X

g

r'

VI -4

p,

., r.

4 m

. el

-

at p,

on .,,

. § .

0. 0

N

;7144

ti

, 5

§

a 4

g, 1

.--.

N

a° '"

V E

, A

c4 N g

:--:

4'

8 1

K

O CD

. N

0) .

...

X

I Br e

si

h 0

.4 6

''-i c

4 7:

v.

7,.' E

..:

1

'4 s' c

oA

a

' 7 -3 8 ." " '

4 ." , , - - .p

"

.. -g

6. A

L''̀'

I .

g '''

/ 'c:

g 3

!I R

g. i

* ?.

5 ii

1 il

" t

...:

e e F

Oa

2 12

0 =

3 .

0

o 0

Ts 2

pi 0

xi

a '-.

.4)

0 .

2

2

.0 2

.2 -‘3

.2

-g 5

T1.32 ac

i i

.S 2

.5

-.

ar

" 4

"g

2 " I

g 1 .

4 -

.v.I

00 0

....

a al

i :,.

,' -.E- d

g i i

A

u .

o .g

2 a

',.2

4 'o

""'l

-a c

, -

...g

ri

2

0

,0 I I

i l 1

i 8 a

l / .

g 4

it: 1 1

1 1

c Al

..,t0t .-

4 (-4

m ..

.. '.- ..

.) sO

(2 e

, N

m ,

13

WI

g CI3

6 i

Fig. 6

.2

Dir

ect e

cono

mic

loss

es b

y se

ctor

(Sou

rce:

Pla

n an

d B

udge

t Org

aniz

atio

n,

Isla

mic

Rep

ublic

of I

ran

1991

: 50)

bulk

of I

ran'

s in

dust

rial

inpu

ts, f

ood

impo

rts,

and

mili

tary

nee

ds.

Iran

ian

indu

strie

s de

pend

on

fore

ign

mar

kets

for o

ver 6

5 pe

r cen

t of

thei

r raw

mat

eria

ls, 7

5 pe

r cen

t of t

heir

inte

rmed

iate

inpu

ts, a

nd o

ver

90 p

er c

ent o

f the

ir ca

pita

l goo

ds. O

ne a

naly

st e

stim

ated

that

the

cost

of

the

war

abs

orbe

d 60

per

cen

t of

Iran

's gr

oss

natio

nal p

rodu

ct

(GN

P) d

urin

g th

e 19

80-1

988

perio

d (M

olid

199

0).

Furt

her b

reak

dow

n of

sec

tora

l dam

age

reve

als

that

the

man

ufac

-tu

ring

sect

or s

uffe

red

mos

t hea

vily

in te

rms

of m

achi

nery

and

equ

ip-

men

t, na

mel

y, lo

ss o

f cap

ital s

tock

: it a

ccou

nts

for t

he la

rges

t sha

re

of d

amag

e in

this

cat

egor

y, a

t 59.

17 p

er c

ent,

with

agr

icul

ture

a d

is-

tant

sec

ond

at 2

2.86

per

cen

t. E

lect

rici

ty, g

as, a

nd w

ater

incu

rred

th

e m

ost d

amag

e in

term

s of

mat

eria

ls a

nd g

oods

-- c

onst

itutin

g 49

.57

per c

ent o

f the

tota

l los

ses

to m

ater

ials

and

goo

ds, w

hile

agr

icul

ture

ac

coun

ts fo

r 28.

17 p

er c

ent o

f thi

s typ

e of

dam

age.

With

in a

gric

ultu

re,

farm

ing

suff

ered

the

mos

t dam

age,

follo

wed

by

fore

stry

, ani

mal

hus

-ba

ndry

, hun

ting,

and

fish

erie

s. M

ost d

amag

e in

the

cons

truct

ion

sec-

tor w

as to

bui

ldin

gs a

nd in

stal

latio

ns, w

hich

con

stitu

ted

65.4

9 pe

r cen

t of

the

dam

age

to th

at s

ecto

r. D

irect

eco

nom

ic d

amag

e to

the

natio

n's

publ

ic se

rvic

es a

lone

acc

ount

s for

51.

19 p

er c

ent o

f the

tota

l and

85.

74

per c

ent o

f the

dam

age

sust

aine

d by

the

serv

ice

sect

or a

s a

who

le.

158

159

0

N

N

N

N

in

N 00

O N 00

Ch

2 3 2

0

00

E CO tg E 445 0

in 8 N

r.

0

O N N So

1 2 is 1 I I 2 COcn 0

N N

AD

N —

N-amooquq

BIER

00,445

,4vi

r--

r183

1:.."

N.

sc..

'11

00 N

cry

ri 0,00

ma—

tm

N. 01. rid

v1

4.

8 ri

N

—_;

§ .

8

-5 E

o 1 g m

11

5.1

0 t, o

rz

161

'ex .1.

1

itc2

s.0

N

N

00 00

Amir

ahm

adi

The

trans

porta

tion,

stor

age,

and

com

mun

icat

ions

sect

or su

stai

ned

the

maj

ority

of d

amag

e to

its m

achi

nery

and

equ

ipm

ent,

at 8

3.48

per

cen

t of

its d

irect

loss

es. W

ithin

this

sect

or, t

rans

porta

tion

was

the

hard

est

hit,

owin

g to

the

dest

ruct

ion

of ro

ads,

railw

ays,

and

priv

ate

vehi

cles

(P

lan

and

Bud

get O

rgan

izat

ion

1991

). A

bre

akdo

wn

of th

e da

ta fo

r sec

tora

l dam

age

by p

rovi

nce

reve

als

that

Khu

zesta

n in

curre

d 34

.27

per c

ent o

f all

dire

ct e

cono

mic

dam

age

(tabl

e 6.

3). K

huze

stan

's la

rge

shar

e of

the

dam

age

was

not

une

x-pe

cted

: man

y pe

troch

emic

al e

stab

lishm

ents

, lig

ht in

dust

ry fa

cilit

ies,

oil i

nsta

llatio

ns, m

ajor

por

t fac

ilitie

s, an

d m

oder

n ag

ribus

ines

ses —

prim

e ta

rget

s of a

eria

l bom

bard

men

ts —

are

loca

ted

ther

e. T

he c

ity o

f K

horr

amsh

ahr a

nd th

e w

orld

's la

rges

t oil

refin

ery

at A

bada

n w

ere

alm

ost c

ompl

etel

y de

stroy

ed, w

hile

the

city

of A

bada

n its

elf s

usta

ined

50

per

cen

t dam

age.

Of t

he to

tal d

amag

e to

the

prov

ince

, app

rox-

imat

ely

40 p

er c

ent w

as a

ssoc

iate

d w

ith b

uild

ings

and

insta

llatio

ns.

Rec

over

y fr

om w

ar

Def

inin

g pr

iorit

ies f

or re

cons

truct

ion

beca

me

a fu

lcru

m fo

r par

tisan

de

bate

and

pol

itica

l con

test

in th

e Ir

ania

n go

vern

men

t. Th

is is

an

expe

rienc

e co

mm

on to

man

y so

ciet

ies t

hat h

ave

expe

rienc

ed w

ide-

spre

ad d

estru

ctio

n fro

m d

isaste

r, w

heth

er it

is w

ar, i

ndus

trial

cal

amity

, or

nat

ural

dis

aste

r. In

Iran

, diff

eren

t pol

itica

l gro

ups s

ough

t to

have

th

eir o

wn

soci

al a

nd e

cono

mic

age

ndas

refle

cted

in th

e re

cons

truct

ion

strat

egy.

Deb

ate

cent

red

arou

nd fo

ur is

sues

— re

build

ing

the

mili

tary

, re

invi

gora

ting

the

natio

nal e

cono

my,

pro

mot

ing

the

econ

omic

wel

l-be

ing

of th

e po

or, a

nd re

cons

truct

ing

war

-dam

aged

are

as. O

nly

the

mos

t rad

ical

fact

ion

of th

e go

vern

men

t was

con

cern

ed w

ith e

quity

an

d so

cial

just

ice.

Con

serv

ativ

e an

d pr

agm

atis

t fac

tions

bel

ieve

d th

at

econ

omic

gro

wth

and

effi

cien

cy sh

ould

gui

de re

cons

truct

ion,

and

it is

th

ese

view

s tha

t cam

e to

dom

inat

e of

ficia

l pol

icy.

As a

resu

lt, m

ost

reco

nstru

ctio

n ef

forts

are

dev

oted

to s

treng

then

ing

mar

ket m

echa

-ni

sms,

priv

atiz

atio

n, a

nd li

bera

lizat

ion

of tr

ade.

Im

ports

are

an

esse

ntia

l com

pone

nt o

f the

Iran

ian

econ

omy,

and

re

cons

truct

ion

of b

oth

the

civi

lian

and

mili

tary

sec

tors

can

not b

e ac

com

plish

ed w

ithou

t the

m.

But i

mpo

rts m

ust

be p

aid

for w

ith h

ard

curr

ency

and

mos

t of

this

is o

btai

ned

in e

xcha

nge

for

Iran

ian

oil.

Unf

ortu

nate

ly, I

ran'

s oil

reve

nues

hav

e bee

n in

suffi

cien

t for

the t

ask

and

gove

rnm

ent l

eade

rs a

re p

reoc

cupi

ed w

ith fi

ndin

g al

tern

ativ

e so

urce

s of h

ard

curr

ency

. Con

serv

ativ

e fac

tions

— w

hich

are

curr

ently

in

pow

er —

favo

ur o

peni

ng th

e Ira

nian

econ

omy

to fo

reig

n in

vest

ors,

160

Aln

II'ah

? la

th

limiti

ng s

tate

inte

rven

tion,

and

allo

win

g th

e m

arke

t and

the

priv

ate

sect

or to

stim

ulat

e ra

pid

econ

omic

gro

wth

. Mor

e ra

dica

l fac

tions

ha

ve a

rgue

d fo

r gro

wth

at a

slow

er p

ace

and

for g

over

nmen

t inv

est-

men

t in

dom

estic

indu

strie

s tha

t will

supp

ly c

emen

t, st

eel,

and

othe

r co

mm

oditi

es to

mee

t the

bas

ic n

eeds

of r

econ

stru

ctio

n. T

he ra

dica

ls

have

als

o fa

vour

ed a

wel

fare

relie

f pro

gram

me

that

targ

ets

the

need

iest

. Whi

le d

omes

tic in

vest

men

t and

relie

f are

incl

uded

in th

e go

vern

men

t's re

cons

truct

ion

plan

, con

serv

ativ

e po

licie

s ar

e cl

early

do

min

ant.

Sinc

e 19

89, P

resi

dent

Ali

Akb

ar H

ashe

mi R

afsa

njan

i, a

polit

ical

pr

agm

atis

t, ha

s tri

ed to

acc

omm

odat

e pu

blic

, priv

ate,

and

coo

pera

- tiv

e se

ctor

s in

the

reco

nstru

ctio

n pr

oces

s. H

is g

over

nmen

t has

relie

d on

a b

lend

of d

omes

tic re

sour

ces a

nd c

apab

ilitie

s; in

tern

atio

nal t

rade

, in

vestm

ent a

nd b

orro

win

g; e

xpan

sion

of th

e ro

le o

f the

priv

ate

sect

or;

and

utili

zatio

n of

pub

lic p

lann

ing

and

mar

ket m

echa

nism

s. Fo

llow

ing

reco

mm

enda

tions

of t

he W

orld

Ban

k an

d th

e In

tern

atio

nal M

onet

ary

Fund

(IM

F), t

he g

over

nmen

t has

impl

emen

ted

econ

omic

stab

iliza

tion

and

stru

ctur

al a

djus

tmen

t pro

gram

mes

that

are

des

igne

d to

put

the

econ

omy

on a

pea

cetim

e fo

otin

g th

at e

mph

asiz

es in

crea

sed

grow

th

and

grea

ter e

ffic

ienc

y. M

ost p

rice

cont

rols

hav

e be

en li

fted;

nat

iona

l-iz

ed in

dust

ries

are

bein

g so

ld to

the

priv

ate

sect

or; s

ubsi

dies

hav

e la

rgel

y be

en e

limin

ated

; a si

ngle

exc

hang

e ra

te h

as b

een

intro

duce

d;

the

Iran

ian

rial h

as b

een

deva

lued

and

mad

e co

nver

tible

, and

the

gove

rnm

ent's

bud

get d

efic

it ha

s be

en b

roug

ht u

nder

con

trol.

The

Iran

ian

gove

rnm

ent h

as a

lso

take

n a

serie

s of o

ther

step

s: it

has

bor

-ro

wed

upw

ards

of $

30 b

illio

n fro

m fo

reig

n go

vern

men

ts an

d fin

anci

al

and

indu

stria

l ins

titut

ions

; it h

as e

ncou

rage

d - w

ith le

ss s

ucce

ss -

fore

ign

inve

stm

ent;

and

it ha

s cr

eate

d fr

ee e

cono

mic

zon

es in

the

Pers

ian

Gul

f isl

ands

and

els

ewhe

re in

the

coun

try. ,

The

imm

edia

te

impa

cts o

f thi

s mac

roec

onom

ic p

olic

y ha

ve b

een

high

er in

flatio

n, a

w

ider

gap

bet

wee

n th

e in

com

es o

f ric

h an

d po

or, a

nd a

larg

er in

ter-

natio

nal d

ebt;

mea

nwhi

le, i

ts lo

ng-te

rm s

ucce

ss re

mai

ns in

dou

bt

whi

le th

e U

S go

vern

men

t opp

oses

the

gove

rnm

ent i

n Te

hera

n an

d th

ere

is u

ncer

tain

ty a

bout

pol

itica

l cha

nges

follo

win

g th

e en

d of

Raf

-sa

njan

i's te

rm in

199

7. H

owev

er, f

rom

the

pers

pect

ive

of e

cono

mic

gr

owth

, the

pol

icy

has

alre

ady

been

suc

cess

ful b

ecau

se th

e gr

owth

ra

te h

as a

vera

ged

abou

t 8 p

er c

ent p

er y

ear b

etw

een

1989

and

19

92. N

one

the

less

, mos

t of t

he b

enef

its o

f thi

s gr

owth

hav

e be

en

erod

ed b

y a

popu

latio

n in

crea

se ra

te o

f aro

und

3.2

per c

ent p

er y

ear

(199

2).

162

Indu

stri

al d

evas

tatio

n in

Iran

Nat

iona

l rec

onst

ruct

ion

plan

s

The

Firs

t Soc

io-E

cono

mic

and

Cul

tura

l Dev

elop

men

t Pla

n of

the

Isla

mic

Rep

ublic

pro

vide

d fo

r thr

ee, m

ore

or le

ss d

istin

ct, s

tage

s of

econ

omic

reco

nstru

ctio

n. In

dust

rial r

ecov

ery

is a

n im

porta

nt o

bjec

-tiv

e. In

the

first

stag

e, e

ffor

ts a

re d

irect

ed to

war

d fu

ll us

e of

exi

stin

g pr

oduc

tive

capa

citie

s (pa

rticu

larly

in o

il an

d ga

s), i

nfra

stru

ctur

e, a

nd

hum

an re

sour

ces.

Stro

ng e

mph

asis

is a

lso

plac

ed o

n ag

ricul

ture

and

ru

ral d

evel

opm

ent.

The

goal

at t

his

stag

e is

the

rest

orat

ion

of th

e ec

onom

y to

its

norm

al fu

nctio

ning

leve

l and

the

incr

ease

of o

il ex

-po

rts to

gen

erat

e as

muc

h fo

reig

n ex

chan

ge a

s po

ssib

le. S

truct

ural

ad

just

men

t and

sta

biliz

atio

n, a

s pr

escr

ibed

by

the

Wor

ld B

ank

and

IMF,

and

inve

stm

ent i

n th

e oi

l sec

tor a

re th

e m

ajor

gov

ernm

ent p

ro-

gram

mes

at p

rese

nt.

The

next

pla

n (1

994-

1998

) will

focu

s on

usin

g oi

l rev

enue

to a

chie

ve

econ

omic

gro

wth

and

incr

ease

d pe

r cap

ita in

com

e by

exp

andi

ng p

ro-

duct

ive

capa

citie

s and

job-

gene

ratin

g in

vestm

ents.

The

third

and

fina

l pl

an w

ill a

ttem

pt to

con

solid

ate

the

grow

th p

roce

ss a

nd m

ake

it in

de-

pend

ent o

f the

oil

sect

or. T

his

is a

sta

ge fa

r int

o th

e fu

ture

. Ira

nian

le

ader

s bel

ieve

that

onl

y th

en w

ill th

e co

untry

be

able

to a

chie

ve g

oals

of so

cial

justi

ce a

nd e

cono

mic

self-

suffi

cien

cy.

Whi

le e

cono

mic

nor

mal

izat

ion

is th

e fo

cus o

f the

firs

t nat

iona

l pla

n,

the

gove

rnm

ent h

as a

lso

been

mak

ing

prog

ress

tow

ard

the

phys

ical

re

cons

truct

ion

of w

ar-d

amag

ed a

reas

and

the

esta

blis

hmen

t of n

ew

econ

omic

act

iviti

es. B

efor

e au

thor

ities

cou

ld p

lan

for r

ebui

ldin

g ur

ban

and

indu

stria

l are

as, t

hey

need

ed to

kno

w h

ow m

any

peop

le w

ould

be

retu

rnin

g to

pre

-war

settl

emen

ts; h

ence

pop

ulat

ion

proj

ectio

ns w

ere

unde

rtake

n. S

econ

d, th

e go

vern

men

t stu

died

the

func

tions

of v

ari-

ous c

ities

in a

ntic

ipat

ion

of c

hang

ing

thei

r pre

-war

role

s. Th

ird, a

u-th

oriti

es a

dopt

ed a

regi

onal

vie

w o

f dev

elop

men

t acc

ordi

ng to

whi

ch,

citie

s an

d vi

llage

s w

ere

rega

rded

as

inte

gral

par

ts o

f pro

vinc

es th

at

wer

e th

emse

lves

par

t of a

n in

tegr

ated

nat

iona

l sta

te.

The

Nat

iona

l Spa

tial P

lann

ing

Stra

tegy

requ

ires

that

reco

nstru

c-tio

n of

rura

l set

tlem

ents

will

pre

cede

that

of t

he c

ities

. The

inte

nt is

to

prev

ent u

nwan

ted

mig

ratio

n of

rura

l peo

ple

to th

e ci

ties.

This

stra

t-eg

y is

con

sist

ent w

ith th

e go

vern

men

t's e

arlie

r pla

n to

mak

e ag

ricul

-tu

re a

n ax

is o

f dev

elop

men

t and

to re

settl

e ru

ral a

reas

. The

gov

-er

nmen

t's p

lan

calls

for g

radu

al re

cons

truct

ion

of to

wns

and

vill

ages

so

that

peo

ple

will

retu

rn to

thei

r pre

viou

s se

ttlem

ents

as

esse

ntia

l pu

blic

and

priv

ate

activ

ities

are

taki

ng sh

ape.

Pla

nnin

g, c

ultu

ral m

at-

163

Am

irahm

adi

ters

, and

oth

er h

uman

dim

ensi

ons o

f rec

onst

ruct

ion

are

said

to h

ave

rece

ived

par

ticul

ar a

ttent

ion.

It is

judg

ed th

at, a

s ra

vage

d ar

eas

are

revi

taliz

ed, w

ar m

igra

nts

will

retu

rn a

nd h

elp

to re

build

dam

aged

st

ruct

ures

. Hou

sing

reco

nstru

ctio

n ha

s rem

aine

d a

maj

or p

aram

eter

in

the

over

all p

lan

for n

orm

aliz

atio

n of

con

ditio

ns (

tabi

'i sa

zi) i

n th

e da

mag

ed a

reas

. D

urin

g th

e w

ar, r

econ

stru

ctio

n w

as a

n em

erge

ncy

or re

plac

e-m

ent a

ctiv

ity th

at fo

cuse

d la

rgel

y on

hou

sing.

Now

it in

clud

es u

pgra

d-in

g bu

ildin

g qu

ality

, inf

rast

ruct

ure,

and

eco

nom

ic p

rodu

ctiv

ity. T

he

Supr

eme

Cou

ncil

for R

econ

stru

ctio

n an

d R

enov

atio

n of

War

-Dam

-ag

ed A

reas

is th

e hi

ghes

t-lev

el b

ody

resp

onsi

ble

for r

econ

stru

ctio

n.

It m

akes

stra

tegi

c de

cisi

ons

and

over

sees

eff

orts

to p

rom

ote

publ

ic

finan

cial

con

tribu

tions

. Ano

ther

bod

y, th

e C

entra

l Hea

dqua

rters

for

Reco

nstru

ctio

n, se

ts pr

iorit

ies,

mak

es p

olic

ies,

supe

rvise

s im

plem

enta

-tio

n of

pro

ject

s, an

d co

ordi

nate

s the

wor

k of

oth

er o

rgan

izat

ions

. The

va

rious

sect

oral

reco

nstru

ctio

n he

adqu

arte

rs c

oord

inat

e re

cons

truc-

tion

wor

ks w

ith th

e se

ctor

al p

lann

ing

com

mitt

ees a

nd su

perv

ise

proj

-ec

ts b

eing

impl

emen

ted

by c

ontra

ctor

s. F

inal

ly, t

he p

rovi

ncia

l and

co

unty

reco

nstru

ctio

n he

adqu

arte

rs a

re re

spon

sibl

e fo

r a v

arie

ty o

f ta

sks,

incl

udin

g pr

iorit

izin

g th

e re

cons

truct

ion

proj

ects

for i

mpl

e-m

enta

tion.

The

se g

over

nmen

tal i

nstit

utio

ns a

re a

ssis

ted

by o

ther

pub

-lic

and

priv

ate

orga

niza

tions

incl

udin

g th

e H

ousi

ng F

ound

atio

n, th

e M

inis

try o

f Rec

onst

ruct

ion

Cru

sade

, the

End

owm

ent f

or th

e Ei

ghth

Im

am,

Seta

dha-

ye M

o'in

(su

ppor

ting

cent

res

for p

artic

ular

pro

ject

s or

citi

es su

ch a

s Kho

rran

isha

hr's

Seta

d),

phila

nthr

opic

org

aniz

atio

ns,

and

revo

lutio

nar y

fou

ndat

ions

(ba

seej

and

kom

iteh)

. W

here

pos

sibl

e, th

e Ir

ania

n go

vern

men

t doe

s no

t rel

ocat

e or

at

tem

pt to

com

bine

dam

aged

set

tlem

ents

. Rat

her,

the

polic

y is

to

rebu

ild th

em o

n th

eir o

rigin

al s

ites

(dar

ja .s

azi).

Thi

s is

inte

nded

to

min

imiz

e co

st, s

ave

time,

and

pre

vent

unn

eces

sary

con

flict

bet

wee

n th

e pe

ople

and

the

gove

rnm

ent.

The

gove

rnm

ent a

lso

avoi

ds c

erta

in

actio

ns su

ch a

s rec

onst

ruct

ing

apar

tmen

t com

plex

es, b

uild

ing

hous

es

befo

re th

e ow

ners

hav

e re

turn

ed to

the

settl

emen

ts, a

nd u

sing

pre

-fa

bric

atio

n te

chni

ques

. Exp

erie

nce

in Ir

an in

dica

tes

that

pre

viou

sly

thos

e ac

tions

wer

e no

t pop

ular

with

the

peop

le. R

athe

r, en

doge

nous

te

chni

ques

and

one

s th

at u

se m

ore

loca

l or n

atio

nal r

esou

rces

are

pr

efer

red:

they

are

sai

d to

redu

ce th

e na

tion'

s te

chno

logi

cal d

epen

-de

ncy.

A fl

exib

le p

lann

ing

appy

bach

is a

dopt

ed so

that

feed

back

and

in

puts

from

peo

ple

are

easi

ly in

corp

orat

ed to

impr

ove

the

qual

ity o

f op

erat

ions

. In

reco

nstru

ctin

g po

pula

tion

cent

res,

the

orde

r of p

riorit

y is,

firs

t, re

siden

tial a

nd c

omm

erci

al u

nits

and

fact

orie

s pro

duci

ng c

on-

indu

stria

l dev

asta

tion

in Ir

an

stru

ctio

n m

ater

ials

, fol

low

ed b

y ot

her e

mpl

oym

ent-g

ener

atin

g ac

tiv-

ities

, par

ticul

arly

in a

gric

ultu

re a

nd sm

all i

ndus

tries

. Pro

visio

n of

hea

t, w

ater

, ele

ctric

ity, r

oads

, inf

rast

ruct

ures

, edu

catio

nal a

nd h

ealth

ser-

vice

s, co

mm

unic

atio

n lin

ks, a

nd u

rban

am

eniti

es a

re a

lso

give

n hi

gh

prio

rity.

At t

he n

atio

nal l

evel

, spe

cial

prio

rity

has

been

atta

ched

to

reco

nstru

ctio

n of

larg

e in

dust

rial u

nits

suc

h as

pet

roch

emic

al c

om-

plex

es, o

il re

finer

ies,

and

pow

er p

lant

s. Th

ere

are

thre

e le

vels

of r

econ

stru

ctio

n pl

ans.

"N

atio

nal s

ecto

r"

plan

s (b

akhs

h-e

mel

li)

incl

ude

larg

e in

dust

rial a

nd in

fras

truct

ural

pr

ojec

ts th

at a

re im

plem

ente

d by

min

istri

es. "

Popu

lar s

ecto

r" p

lans

(b

akhs

h-e

mar

dom

i)

deal

with

reco

nstr

uctio

n of

resi

dent

ial a

nd

com

mer

cial

uni

ts b

y th

eir o

wne

rs. "

Reg

iona

l sec

tor"

pla

ns (

bakh

sh-e

m

anta

qehe

i) en

com

pass

regi

onal

dev

elop

men

t pro

gram

mes

and

ur

ban

or ru

ral s

ervi

ce p

roje

cts.

They

are

impl

emen

ted

by re

cons

truc-

tion

offic

es in

the

dam

aged

are

as. T

he ro

le o

f gov

ernm

ent i

s lim

ited

to in

vest

ing

in jo

b-ge

nera

ting

prod

uctiv

e un

its, s

uper

visi

on o

f rec

on-

stru

ctio

n pr

oces

ses,

prov

isio

n of

tech

nica

l ser

vice

s, an

d fin

anci

al a

s-si

stan

ce. I

n al

l cas

es, s

ite p

repa

ratio

n is

a p

ublic

resp

onsi

bilit

y. T

he

gove

rnm

ent i

s als

o re

spon

sibl

e fo

r equ

ippi

ng p

ublic

off

ices

with

ade

-qu

ate

equi

pmen

t and

ski

lled

labo

ur, a

s w

ell a

s fo

r del

iver

ing

basi

c co

nstru

ctio

n m

ater

ials

to th

e pr

ojec

t site

s. Fi

nanc

ially

, the

pub

lic se

ctor

ass

ists

reco

nstru

ctio

n by

inve

stin

g in

in

fras

truct

ure;

pro

vidi

ng te

chni

cal a

nd m

anag

eria

l per

sonn

el; r

eim

-bu

rsin

g th

e pu

blic

for p

art o

f the

war

-rel

ated

loss

es; a

nd g

rant

ing

cred

its, l

oans

, and

oth

er b

anki

ng se

rvic

es. F

or re

build

ing

urba

n re

si-

dent

ial u

nits

(fro

m 6

0 to

120

squa

re m

etre

s), t

he g

over

nmen

t pay

s up

to 6

mill

ion

rials

, plu

s the

cos

t of c

onst

ruct

ion

mat

eria

ls.

Supp

ort f

rom

inte

rnat

iona

l org

aniz

atio

ns a

nd lo

cal

com

mun

ities

Inte

rnat

iona

l eco

nom

ic a

nd d

iplo

mat

ic c

omm

uniti

es a

re p

layi

ng a

lim

ited

but d

irect

role

in re

cons

truct

ion,

to so

me

degr

ee re

vers

ing

the

"han

ds-o

ff"

appr

oach

ado

pted

by

othe

r cou

ntrie

s du

ring

the

war

. Fi

rms f

rom

Wes

tern

Eur

ope,

Japa

n, R

ussi

a, a

nd th

e U

nite

d St

ates

(as

subc

ontra

ctor

s) a

re c

urre

ntly

invo

lved

in re

build

ing

oil i

nsta

llatio

ns

and

have

join

ed in

oth

er m

ajor

indu

stria

l and

infr

astru

ctur

al p

roje

cts.

The

Uni

ted

Nat

ions

Sec

urity

Cou

ncil

(Dec

embe

r 199

1) h

as m

ade

unsu

cces

sful

ove

rture

s to

the

Wes

t for

tech

nica

l and

fina

ncia

l ass

is-

tanc

e to

Iran

.5

The

supp

ort o

f loc

al c

itize

ns h

as b

een

cruc

ial

to fi

ghtin

g th

e w

ar

165

164

166

167

A^ n

iral

unad

i

and

rebu

ildin

g ra

vage

d co

mm

uniti

es. D

urin

g th

e w

ar's

early

yea

rs

ther

e w

as g

reat

pop

ular

ent

husi

asm

for t

he Ir

ania

n re

volu

tion,

and

ci

tizen

s w

ere

will

ing

to ta

ke th

e le

ad in

reco

nstru

ctin

g ho

uses

and

pu

blic

faci

litie

s. T

his

spiri

t con

tinue

s ev

en a

fter t

he w

ar's

end:

it

is re

flect

ed in

reco

mm

enda

tions

of t

he C

ounc

il of

Pol

icy

Mak

ing

for R

econ

stru

ctio

n. In

198

8, th

e C

ounc

il, a

ctin

g on

reco

mm

enda

tions

fr

om th

e la

te A

yato

llah

Kho

mei

ni, o

utlin

ed it

s Dire

ctiv

e on

the

Com

-pr

ehen

sive

Nat

iona

l Rec

onst

ruct

ion

Plan

. The

Dire

ctiv

e ca

lled

for a

re

cons

truct

ion

stra

tegy

that

is fo

unde

d on

the

capa

bilit

ies o

f peo

ple

in w

ar-to

rn a

reas

, and

that

stre

sses

the

impo

rtanc

e of

"ob

serv

ing

the

cultu

ral,

tradi

tiona

l, an

d ps

ycho

logi

cal c

hara

cter

istic

s of t

he p

eopl

e in

ea

ch a

rea.

..."

(Am

irahm

adi 1

990b

: 247

). D

espi

te th

e em

phas

is o

n lo

cal i

nitia

tives

, the

gov

ernm

ent a

nd so

cial

syst

ems o

f Ira

n ar

e ce

n-tra

lized

. The

nat

iona

l gov

ernm

ent i

s who

lly re

spon

sibl

e fo

r all

reco

n-st

ruct

ion

plan

s. It

deci

des w

hich

pro

duct

ive

cent

res a

re to

be

rebu

ilt,

the

pace

of r

ebui

ldin

g, a

nd la

nd-u

se p

atte

rns.

Loca

l par

ticip

atio

n w

as in

tend

ed to

be

inst

itutio

naliz

ed b

y m

eans

of

exp

ande

d pr

ovin

cial

and

mun

icip

al a

utho

ritie

s, a

s w

ell a

s to

wn

coun

cils.

How

ever

, the

re is

no

auto

nom

ous n

on-g

over

nmen

tal a

genc

y th

at e

ncou

rage

s gr

ass-

root

s in

puts

. The

nat

iona

l gov

ernm

ent's

cal

l fo

r citi

zen

parti

cipa

tion

in th

e re

build

ing

is a

top-

dow

n m

anag

emen

t st

rate

gy, w

here

in th

e ce

ntra

l aut

horit

y m

akes

the

impo

rtant

dec

isio

ns

abou

t a w

ide

rang

e of

mat

ters

, inc

ludi

ng h

ow to

refa

shio

n ci

ties,

re

invi

gora

te lo

cal i

ndus

try, a

nd c

reat

e po

st-w

ar lo

cal a

dmin

istra

tions

. O

ver t

ime,

the

gove

rnm

ent h

as a

lso

rede

fined

loca

l par

ticip

atio

n in

te

rms

of in

crea

sing

priv

atiz

atio

n of

the

publ

ic s

ecto

r by

mea

ns o

f va

rious

ince

ntiv

e pa

ckag

es. C

onse

quen

tly, t

he c

laim

that

resi

dent

s of

war

-aff

licte

d ar

eas w

ill b

e in

volv

ed in

the

rebu

ildin

g pr

oces

s has

a

hollo

w ri

ng, e

xcep

t in

the

case

of p

rivat

e ho

usin

g re

cons

truct

ion.

W

ith th

e ad

optio

n of

free

mar

ket m

echa

nism

s as t

he u

ltim

ate

arbi

ters

of

reco

nstru

ctio

n, c

omm

unity

mem

bers

bec

ome

invo

lved

in th

e pr

o-ce

ss o

nly

to th

e ex

tent

that

they

pro

vide

the

hum

an c

apita

l nec

essa

ry

for e

cono

mic

gro

wth

and

rest

ruct

urin

g. T

he g

over

nmen

t doe

s, ho

w-ev

er,

cont

inue

to p

rovi

de m

ater

ials

to in

divi

dual

s wis

hing

to re

build

. C

ompe

nsat

ion

of v

ictim

s for

loss

es in

curr

ed d

urin

g th

e w

ar is

vie

wed

as

ess

entia

l for

mai

ntai

ning

pop

ular

supp

ort o

f the

regi

me.

O

wne

rs a

re re

spon

sibl

e fo

r the

des

ign

and

reco

nstru

ctio

n of

thei

r ow

n un

its. T

he D

irect

or o

f the

Pro

vinc

ial R

econ

stru

ctio

n O

ffic

e m

ay,

at h

is d

iscr

etio

n, a

ssis

t an

owne

r with

up

to 1

80 sq

uare

met

res o

f roo

f co

vera

ge. A

n ow

ner m

ay b

e al

so a

ssis

ted

by b

ank

loan

s. F

or u

rban

co

mm

erci

al e

stab

lishm

ents

, the

gov

ernm

ent p

ays

up to

1.5

mill

ion

Indu

stri

al d

evas

tatio

n in

Iran

rials

and

ass

ists

the

owne

r with

ban

k lo

ans.

For r

ebui

ldin

g an

d re

no-

vatin

g pr

oduc

tion

units

, the

gov

ernm

ent p

ays u

p to

6 m

illio

n ria

ls an

d pr

ovid

es c

onst

ruct

ion

mat

eria

ls a

t off

icia

l pric

es. O

ther

gov

ernm

ent

assi

stan

ce in

clud

es b

ank

loan

s and

pro

visi

on o

f for

eign

exc

hang

e to

be

use

d fo

r pur

chas

e of

mac

hine

ry a

nd e

quip

men

t. Th

e go

vern

men

t al

so re

imbu

rses

priv

ate

vict

ims

for a

long

list

of d

amag

ed it

ems,

ra

ngin

g fr

om a

gric

ultu

ral p

rodu

cts

and

palm

tree

s to

ani

mal

s an

d pr

ivat

e ve

hicl

es. B

uild

ing

perm

its a

nd a

cces

s to

wat

er a

nd e

lect

ricity

ar

e al

so p

rovi

ded

free

of c

harg

e. T

he R

econ

stru

ctio

n O

rgan

izat

ion

is

resp

onsi

ble

for c

lear

ing

and

rem

oval

of d

ebris

at n

o co

st to

ow

ners

. Fi

nally

, the

gov

ernm

ent s

ells

the

follo

win

g se

ven

"bas

ic"

hous

ehol

d ite

ms t

o w

ar m

igra

nts w

ho a

re re

turn

ing

to v

illag

es: m

achi

ne-m

ade

carp

et; r

efrig

erat

or; b

lack

and

whi

te te

levi

sion

; sto

ve; k

itche

n w

are

and

plat

es; s

ewin

g m

achi

ne, a

nd fa

n.

Urb

an re

cons

truc

tion

Citi

es a

re b

eing

reco

nstru

cted

on

thei

r pre

viou

s site

s and

with

an

eye

tow

ard

mod

erni

zatio

n. W

hile

mix

ed la

nd u

ses a

re m

aint

aine

d in

mos

t ca

ses,

indu

stria

l and

com

mer

cial

zon

es a

re se

para

ted

from

resi

dent

ial

area

s. T

his

has

led

to s

igni

fican

t cha

nges

in la

ndho

ldin

g pa

ttern

s w

ithin

reco

nstru

cted

urb

an s

ettle

men

ts. A

ttem

pts

are

bein

g m

ade

to e

nfor

ce Is

lam

ic b

uild

ing

code

s and

arc

hite

ctur

e, b

ut w

ithou

t muc

h su

cces

s. A

new

urb

an st

rate

gy is

now

in p

lace

. It f

ocus

es fi

rst o

n th

e re

cons

truct

ion

of p

rodu

ctiv

e se

ctor

s of

the

econ

omy

and

then

on

infr

astru

ctur

e, h

ousi

ng, a

nd se

rvic

es a

s bot

tlene

cks d

evel

op in

thos

e ar

eas.

The

new

stra

tegy

is in

tend

ed to

brin

g ab

out a

gra

dual

repo

pu-

latio

n of

dam

aged

settl

emen

ts, a

djus

ted

to th

e ra

te a

t whi

ch h

ousi

ng

and

jobs

are

ava

ilabl

e.

In m

any

plac

es re

cons

truct

ion

has p

roce

eded

slow

ly a

nd w

ith c

on-

side

rabl

e de

bate

. For

exa

mpl

e, th

e re

build

ing

of K

horr

amsh

ahr w

as

slow

ed b

y di

sagr

eem

ent a

bout

whe

ther

the

city

had

lost

its j

ustif

ica-

tion

as a

maj

or p

ort.

Alte

rnat

ive

ports

had

bee

n de

velo

ped

else

whe

re

durin

g th

e w

ar, s

ome

on m

ore

stra

tegi

cally

secu

re si

tes.

Whe

n re

con-

stru

ctio

n be

gan

in so

me

parts

of K

horr

amsh

ahr,

orig

inal

foun

datio

ns

wer

e ex

cava

ted

in a

n at

tem

pt to

con

firm

land

ow

ners

hip

with

surv

i-vo

rs. T

he e

ffor

t req

uire

d to

car

ry o

ut su

ch p

ains

taki

ng re

cons

truct

ion

was

judg

ed to

be

war

rant

ed b

y th

e ps

ycho

logi

cal,

soci

al, a

nd e

cono

mic

be

nefit

s tha

t acc

rued

from

wor

king

clo

sely

with

loca

l res

iden

ts (Z

arga

r an

d Po

or 1

991)

. Im

plem

enta

tion

of re

cons

truct

ion

plan

s beg

ins w

hen

the

Min

istry

Atn

irahm

adi

Indu

stria

l dev

asta

tion

in Ir

an

of H

ealth

and

the

Red

Cre

scen

t Soc

iety

hav

e fin

ishe

d di

sinf

ectin

g a

war

-dam

aged

are

a. A

t tha

t tim

e an

are

a m

anag

er is

app

oint

ed to

ov

erse

e th

e re

build

ing

of h

ouse

s. H

e (in

varia

bly

mal

e) is

the

sole

re

pres

enta

tive

of th

e H

ousi

ng F

ound

atio

n in

the

loca

lity

and

his

deci

sion

may

not

be o

vert

urne

d by

oth

er p

ublic

offi

cial

s. H

owev

er,

the a

rea

man

ager

mus

t wor

k w

ithin

the f

ram

ewor

k of

the r

elev

ant

prov

inci

al d

evel

opm

ent p

lan

and

coor

dina

te h

is ac

tiviti

es w

ith p

ro-

vinc

ial o

ffici

als a

nd a

ctiv

ities

. In

addi

tion

to a

rea

man

ager

s, ot

her

agen

ts in

volv

ed in

the t

ask

of h

ousin

g re

cons

truc

tion

incl

ude

owne

rs

of h

ouse

s, Is

lam

ic C

ounc

ils, a

uxili

ary

wor

k gr

oups

, and

pr

ovin

cial

re

pres

enta

tives

of t

he H

ousi

ng F

ound

atio

n.

Hou

sing

reco

nstru

ctio

n

The

natio

nal g

over

nmen

t put

s litt

le m

oney

into

the

reco

nstru

ctio

n of

da

niag

ed h

ouse

s. M

ost g

over

nmen

t fun

ds a

re in

vest

ed in

pub

lic se

r-vi

ces,

site

pre

para

tion,

em

ploy

men

t-gen

erat

ing

prod

uctiv

e ac

tiviti

es,

prov

isio

n of

con

stru

ctio

n m

ater

ials

, arc

hite

ctur

al d

esig

n, te

chni

cal

supe

rvis

ion,

and

bui

lder

trai

ning

. The

gov

ernm

ent h

as a

dopt

ed a

"n

ew to

wn"

dev

elop

men

t stra

tegy

and

em

ploy

s the

"si

te a

nd se

rvic

e pr

ovis

ion"

app

roac

h ad

voca

ted

by th

e W

orld

Ban

k. In

rura

l are

as,

the

Hou

sing

Foun

datio

n is

prim

arily

resp

onsib

le fo

r the

qua

lity

of th

e co

nstru

ctio

n m

ater

ials

and

bui

ldin

gs.

Som

e fin

anci

al a

ssis

tanc

e is

ava

ilabl

e to

hom

e-bu

ilder

s: it

can

take

th

e fo

rm o

f gra

nts,

cre

dit,

or b

ank

loan

s. B

ut th

e em

phas

is o

n se

lf-he

lp m

akes

hom

e-ow

ners

resp

onsib

le fo

r des

ign

and

cons

truct

ion

and

enco

urag

es th

em to

rely

on

loca

l tec

hnol

ogy

and

reso

urce

s.

Indu

stri

al re

cons

truc

tion

Maj

or e

cono

mic

ent

erpr

ises

and

indu

strie

s are

resp

onsi

ble

for r

econ

-st

ruct

ing

thei

r res

pect

ive

faci

litie

s und

er th

e di

rect

ion

of th

e M

inist

ry

of H

eavy

Indu

stries

, the

Min

istry

of (

Ligh

t) In

dustr

ies o

r the

Min

istry

of

Min

es a

nd M

etal

s. O

il, g

as, p

etro

chem

ical

indu

strie

s, b

asic

in-

dust

ries,

firm

s pro

duci

ng c

onst

ruct

ion

mat

eria

ls, m

etal

pro

duct

s, an

d ba

sic

need

s con

sum

er g

oods

hav

e be

en g

iven

top

prio

rity.

A

com

mitt

ee fi

rst d

eter

min

es if

a sp

ecifi

c fir

m s

houl

d be

scra

pped

or

rebu

ilt a

nd w

heth

er it

s fac

ilitie

s war

rant

repa

ir, r

epla

cem

ent,

or

upgr

adin

g. U

nits

that

are

unl

ikel

y to

be

rebu

ilt in

clud

e th

ose

with

m

ore

than

30

per c

ent d

amag

e, th

ose

tech

nica

lly to

o ob

sole

te o

r too

de

pend

ent,

and

units

with

littl

e pr

ospe

ct fo

r sig

nific

ant v

alue

-add

ed

capa

bilit

y. A

ttent

ion

is a

lso

paid

to la

bour

and

fina

ncia

l mar

kets

, ca

pita

l mar

kets,

pro

duct

ion

tech

nolo

gy, i

nput

s -ou

tput

s mar

kets,

trad

e pr

ospe

cts,

man

agem

ent r

equi

rem

ents

and

cap

abili

ties,

and

othe

r nec

-es

sary

inst

itutio

nal a

rran

gem

ents

. Whi

le th

ese

activ

ities

hav

e be

en

follo

wed

in th

e ca

se o

f ind

ustri

al re

build

ing,

the

natio

n as

yet

doe

s no

t hav

e a

clea

r ind

ustri

al p

olic

y or

a p

olic

y of

indu

stria

l sec

urity

in

case

of a

noth

er w

ar.

Wha

t thi

s ove

rvie

w o

f pos

t-war

reco

nstru

ctio

n sh

ows i

s tha

t ind

us-

trial

rede

velo

pmen

t is

a pr

iori

ty o

f the

Iran

ian

gove

rnm

ent,

but t

hat

ther

e is l

ittle

expl

icit

conc

ern

for i

ndus

tria

l saf

ety

as a

pla

nnin

g cr

ite-

rion

, for

add

ing

impr

oved

acc

iden

t-pre

vent

ion

syst

ems t

o th

e re

built

in

dust

rial f

acili

ties,

or fo

r mak

ing

othe

r atte

mpt

s to

miti

gate

pot

entia

l in

dust

rial d

isas

ters

. Whe

reas

pea

cetim

e in

dust

rial d

isas

ters

hav

e so

met

imes

stim

ulat

ed h

azar

d-re

duct

ion

legi

slat

ion

and

othe

r ini

tia-

tives

, one

less

on o

f Ira

n's

expe

rienc

e is

that

war

-rel

ated

indu

stria

l di

sast

ers a

re n

ot fo

llow

ed b

y su

ch c

hang

es.

Con

cept

ual f

ram

ewor

k fo

r a

mod

el o

f pos

t-war

rec

onst

ruct

ion

and

indu

stri

al h

azar

d re

cove

ry

The

best

way

to p

reve

nt w

ar-r

elat

ed in

dust

rial d

isas

ters

is to

pre

vent

w

ars f

rom

occ

urrin

g in

the

first

pla

ce. O

bvio

usly

, it i

s too

late

to p

re-

vent

the

outb

reak

of h

ostil

ities

bet

wee

n Ir

an a

nd Ir

aq: t

he d

amag

e ha

s al

read

y be

en d

one.

Reg

retta

bly,

sim

ilar s

ituat

ions

are

like

ly

to

arise

in th

e fu

ture

and

ther

e w

ill c

ontin

ue to

be

a ne

ed fo

r rec

on-

stru

ctio

n in

the

wak

e of

arm

ed c

onfli

ct. F

igur

e 6.

3 su

mm

ariz

es a

fr

amew

ork

for p

ost-w

ar re

cons

truct

ion

that

is b

ased

on

the

Iran

ian

expe

rienc

e. In

the

page

s tha

t fol

low

, the

mos

t im

porta

nt e

lem

ents

of

the

fram

ewor

k ar

e ex

plai

ned,

with

spec

ial a

ttent

ion

to th

e re

cove

ry

of in

dust

rial f

acili

ties

that

hav

e be

en d

estro

yed

or d

amag

ed a

nd o

f ad

jace

nt a

reas

and

pop

ulat

ions

tha

t hav

e be

en p

ollu

ted.

A r

econ

struc

tion

strat

egy

The

form

ulat

ion

of a

pos

t-war

reco

nstru

ctio

n st

rate

gy is

bou

nd to

be

com

e th

e ce

ntre

of f

ierc

e de

bate

, for

it m

ust s

atis

fy a

nd c

ut a

cros

s va

ryin

g id

eolo

gies

, soc

ial g

roup

s, ti

me

perio

ds, a

nd c

ultu

res.

The

ch

osen

stra

tegy

will

dep

end

in la

rge m

easu

re o

n th

e nat

ure o

f the

war

its

elf a

nd th

e ex

tent

of d

amag

e. E

ach

natio

n m

ust f

ashi

on it

s ow

n na

tiona

l rec

onstr

uctio

n str

ateg

y, b

ut th

e Ira

nian

expe

rienc

e can

serv

e as

a g

uide

to is

sues

and

alte

rnat

ives

.

169

168

Am

ira

hn

iud

i

I eco

nstr

ucti

on

/ P

lan

R

Priori

ties

Progra

mmes

Polici

es

Hum

an

Relief

Mat

eria

l dR

ecov

ery

I Im

pleme

ntatio

n (R

econst

ructio

n Pro

cess)

Input

Outpu

t F

inan

cial

dR

eplac

emen

ti

dnev

elopm

enti

Tec

hnic

al

Obs

tacl

es

Ski

ll

Lev

el

For

eign

E

xcha

nge

Pol

itic

al

Cul

ture

Fig.

6.3

Fr

amew

ork

for

post

-w

ar r

econ

stru

ctio

n

Firs

t and

fore

mos

t, a

reco

nstru

ctio

n st

rate

gy m

ust b

e ve

rsat

ile a

nd

flex

ible

. Thi

s m

eans

that

it m

ust h

e br

oad

enou

gh to

be

usab

le b

y di

ffer

ent s

ecto

rs a

nd d

iffer

ent l

evel

s of

pol

itica

l adm

inis

tratio

n, a

nd

able

to a

ccom

mod

ate

the

chan

ging

mix

of p

robl

ems

that

aris

e at

dif-

fere

nt s

tage

s of

the

reco

nstr

uctio

n pr

oces

s. It

mus

t als

o be

abl

e to

re

spon

d to

the

need

s of

diff

eren

t soc

io-e

cono

mic

gro

ups

and

to fo

cus

reso

urce

s on

urg

ent p

robl

ems

that

dem

and

quic

k ac

tion

(e.g

. ind

us-

trial

haz

ards

and

ass

ocia

ted

cont

amin

atio

n). T

he s

trate

gy m

ust a

lso

strik

e a

bala

nce

betw

een

com

petin

g de

man

ds fo

r the

imm

edia

te re

lief

of d

estru

ctio

n an

d th

e ne

ed to

inve

st in

act

iviti

es th

at w

ill e

vent

ually

re

stor

e th

e co

untry

's lo

ng-te

rm e

cono

mic

bas

e. T

ypic

ally

, in

the

post

-w

ar a

tmos

pher

e of

eco

nom

ic a

uste

rity

, man

y fo

rces

com

pete

for

scar

ce re

sour

ces,

and

gov

ernm

ents

can

be

draw

n in

to w

aste

ful s

ocia

l pr

ojec

ts th

at a

re a

ttrac

tive

on p

oliti

cal g

roun

ds.

In a

dditi

on to

thes

e ge

nera

l pri

ncip

les,

a re

cons

truc

tion

stra

tegy

Indu

stria

l tle

va.s

iiitio

n in

Iran

shou

ld in

corp

orat

e cl

ear l

ong-

term

goa

ls. T

o en

sure

suc

cess

, goa

ls

mus

t be

tran

slat

ed in

to c

lear

ly d

efin

ed o

bjec

tives

that

real

istic

ally

ta

ke in

to a

ccou

nt th

e so

ciet

y's

reso

urce

s, e

xpec

tatio

ns, c

onst

rain

ts,

and

capa

bilit

ies.

Afte

r an

eval

uatio

n of

thes

e fa

ctor

s, a

hie

rarc

hy o

f go

als

mus

t be

form

ed, b

ased

on

a se

t of n

atio

nal p

rior

ities

. In

post

-w

ar so

ciet

ies t

hese

goa

ls g

ener

ally

incl

ude

rest

orat

ion

of h

uman

hea

lth

and

long

-term

hab

itabi

lity,

reco

nstru

ctio

n of

the

econ

omy,

rebu

ildin

g of

nat

iona

l def

ence

, reh

abili

tatio

n of

war

-dam

aged

are

as, a

nd th

e co

rrec

tion

of s

ocia

l im

bala

nces

cau

sed

by w

ar.'

Nat

iona

l pla

nnin

g is

bas

ed o

n an

ass

umpt

ion

that

"th

e de

tails

" ca

n be

left

to re

gion

al, l

ocal

, or s

ecto

ral p

lans

. But

wha

t hap

pens

whe

n th

ere

is w

ides

prea

d lo

caliz

ed d

estr

uctio

n of

indu

stri

al fa

cilit

ies

that

ha

ve th

e po

tent

ial t

o cr

eate

per

vasi

ve, l

ong-

runn

ing

haza

rds

for

regi

ons,

cou

ntri

es, o

r the

ent

ire

eart

h? P

erha

ps it

will

be

nece

ssar

y to

dev

ise

new

form

s of

nat

iona

l pla

nnin

g or

to c

once

ptua

lize

loca

l-na

tiona

l—gl

obal

eve

nts

and

stra

tegi

es in

new

way

s. F

or th

e m

ore

focu

sed

task

of i

ndus

trial

revi

val,

such

pro

cedu

ral a

ppro

ache

s ha

ve to

be

com

e ev

en m

ore

spec

ific

, allo

win

g fo

r im

plem

enta

tion

of ta

sks

rela

ting

to v

ario

us re

sour

ces

and

com

mod

ity m

arke

ts, a

nd o

rgan

iza-

tiona

l arr

ange

men

ts w

ithin

and

out

side

the

indu

stri

es. P

artic

ipat

ion

of e

mpl

oyee

s in

the

revi

val o

f ind

ustri

es is

a c

ritic

al n

eed

that

may

be

met

by

orga

nizi

ng th

em in

var

ious

con

sulta

tive

and

exec

utiv

e bo

dies

. Im

plem

enta

tion

is b

ette

r ach

ieve

d if

acco

mpa

nied

by

wel

l-def

ined

an

d sp

ecif

ic p

olic

ies

conc

erni

ng e

nvir

onm

enta

l, ec

onom

ic, s

ocia

l, po

litic

al, i

deol

ogic

al, c

ultu

ral,

infr

astru

ctur

al, t

errit

oria

l, ed

ucat

iona

l, te

chni

cal,

and

lega

l cha

nges

. Env

iron

men

tal p

olic

ies

not o

nly

mus

t ta

ke in

to c

onsi

dera

tion

exis

ting

prob

lem

s bu

t als

o m

ust a

ddre

ss th

e fu

ture

sec

urity

of

indu

stri

al p

lant

s an

d su

rrou

ndin

g po

pula

tions

ag

ains

t int

erna

l and

ext

erna

l haz

ards

. Eco

nom

ic p

olic

ies

need

to

acco

unt f

or b

udge

t def

icits

incu

rred

in a

war

eff

ort,

whi

ch g

ener

ate

infla

tion,

une

mpl

oym

ent,

and

pove

rty. T

he g

over

nmen

t mus

t als

o be

re

spon

sibl

e fo

r gen

erat

ing

ince

ntiv

e pa

ckag

es th

at w

ill in

duce

the

priv

ate

sect

or to

inve

st in

pro

duct

ive

activ

ities

, whi

le a

t the

sam

e tim

e cu

rbin

g no

n-pr

oduc

tive

uses

of c

apita

l thr

ough

sel

ectiv

e m

easu

res

such

as

taxe

s an

d cu

mbe

rsom

e lic

ensi

ng re

quire

men

ts. T

he g

over

n-m

ent c

ould

als

o se

ek o

ut d

irec

t for

eign

inve

stm

ent f

or re

vita

lizin

g in

dust

ries.

Soci

al p

olic

ies m

ust b

e di

rect

ed to

war

d th

e pr

ovis

ion

of b

asic

nee

ds

in s

uch

area

s as

hea

lth,

edu

cati

on, h

ousi

ng, a

nd r

ecre

atio

n, w

ith

expl

icit

emph

asis

on

serv

ices

for

thos

e w

ho w

ere

phys

ical

ly o

r m

en-

tally

trau

mat

ized

dur

ing

the

war

. Hou

sing

pol

icy

is th

e m

ost c

ritic

al

170

171

Strate

gy

A nz

irahm

adi

com

pone

nt o

f the

gov

ernm

ent's

soc

ial p

olic

y du

ring

reco

nstru

ctio

n af

ter t

he w

ar: t

he h

ousi

ng s

ecto

r nor

mal

ly re

ceiv

es th

e m

ost d

amag

e an

d su

ffer

s fr

om s

horta

ges

even

in p

eace

time.

Impl

emen

ting

a po

licy

that

allo

ws

for a

sus

tain

able

hou

sing

pro

cess

is th

e m

ost i

mpo

rtan

t as

pect

of a

mor

e ef

fect

ive

soci

al p

olic

y. H

ere,

inco

me

gene

ratio

n sh

ould

bec

ome

the

prim

ary

goal

. Edu

catio

n po

licy

play

s a

very

sig

-ni

fican

t rol

e in

reco

nstru

ctio

n, p

artic

ular

ly in

the

third

wor

ld w

here

pr

ofes

sion

al a

nd te

chni

cal e

duca

tion

leve

ls re

mai

n lo

w. A

mor

e ef

fec-

tive

educ

atio

n pr

ogra

mm

e sh

ould

be

spec

ifica

lly d

irect

ed a

t tra

inin

g po

licy

mak

ers,

pla

nner

s, m

anag

ers,

and

loca

l lea

ders

, as

wel

l as

tow

ard

trans

form

ing

fight

ers

into

pro

duce

rs a

nd p

ollu

ters

into

env

i-ro

nmen

talis

ts! C

ultu

ral p

olic

ies

are

need

ed to

mai

ntai

n di

vers

ity a

nd

unity

dur

ing

the

high

ly d

isru

ptiv

e an

d tr

ansf

orm

ativ

e pr

oces

s of

re

cons

truct

ion.

A

fter

hou

sing

, inf

rast

ruct

ure

is th

e se

ctor

of s

ocie

ty th

at is

mos

t se

vere

ly a

ffec

ted

by w

ar. T

here

fore

, the

suc

cess

of a

reco

nstru

ctio

n st

rate

gy h

inge

s on

wel

l-de

sign

ed in

fras

truc

tura

l pol

icie

s th

at ta

ke

into

acc

ount

futu

re n

eeds

of c

omm

uniti

es a

nd s

tren

gthe

n lin

kage

s be

twee

n th

em. I

nfra

stru

ctur

al p

olic

ies

are

best

impl

emen

ted

in c

on-

junc

tion

with

set

tlem

ent p

olic

ies.

The

se c

an b

enef

it fr

om a

n in

te-

grat

ed re

gion

al a

ppro

ach

in w

hich

a h

iera

rchy

of r

ural

and

urb

an

area

s ar

e lin

ked

toge

ther

func

tiona

lly, a

s w

ell a

s by

tran

spor

tatio

n an

d co

mm

unic

atio

n ne

twor

ks. T

arge

ting

spec

ific

citi

es a

s m

arke

t ce

ntre

s or

oth

er fu

nctio

nal c

entr

es m

ay re

quir

e re

stru

ctur

ing

of th

e pr

e-w

ar u

rban

sys

tem

. Sm

all-s

cale

rura

l ind

ustri

es th

at s

timul

ate

the

agric

ultu

ral s

ecto

r (e.

g. fo

od p

roce

ssin

g) c

ould

be

linke

d to

indu

strie

s at

hig

her l

evel

s of

the

terr

itoria

l hie

rarc

hy.

An

esse

ntia

l par

t of t

he im

plem

enta

tion

proc

ess

is th

e co

dific

atio

n of

all

the

polic

ies

men

tione

d ab

ove,

in th

e fo

rm o

f an

appr

opri

ate

lega

l fra

mew

ork.

The

reco

nstr

uctio

n pl

an it

self

mus

t be

mad

e in

to

law

if it

s im

plem

enta

tion

is tr

uly

to b

e ca

rrie

d ou

t. L

ast,

but b

y no

m

eans

leas

t, re

cons

truc

tion

stra

tegy

mus

t dea

l with

pol

itica

l iss

ues

that

per

mea

te e

very

asp

ect o

f rec

onst

ruct

ion:

ther

e is

a g

reat

dea

l of

pote

ntia

lly d

estru

ctiv

e am

bigu

ity a

bout

the

role

s of

pos

t-war

mili

tary

fo

rces

, abo

ut fa

ctio

nalis

m, a

nd a

bout

sta

te—

soci

ety

rela

tions

. Whi

le

dem

ocra

tizat

ion

and

publ

ic p

artic

ipat

ion

are

the

only

mea

ns f

or

crea

ting

polit

ical

legi

timac

y, m

ost p

ost-

war

sta

tes

are

too

frag

ile

and

unst

able

to a

llow

for t

heir

impl

emen

tatio

n in

the

shor

t ter

m if

th

ey w

ere

not f

irmly

ent

renc

hed

in th

e po

litic

al s

yste

m b

efor

e w

ar

bega

n. M

ost p

ost-w

ar so

ciet

ies a

re c

hara

cter

ized

by

polit

ical

dis

cord

an

d na

tiona

l con

flict

s. In

spite

of t

his,

ther

e si

mpl

y is

no

alte

rnat

ive

Indu

stria

l dev

asta

tion

in Ir

an

to n

atio

nal r

econ

cilia

tion

if r

econ

stru

ctio

n is

to b

e im

plem

ente

d su

cces

sful

ly.

The

reco

nstr

uctio

n pr

oces

s

To so

me

degr

ee, t

he re

cons

truct

ion

proc

ess

exhi

bits

pre

dict

able

cha

r-ac

teris

tics.

The

se in

clud

e th

e te

nden

cy fo

r dam

aged

citi

es a

nd in

dus-

trie

s to

be

rebu

ilt o

n th

e sa

me

site

s, c

ontin

uatio

n of

pre

-war

tren

ds

in p

opul

atio

n gr

owth

and

urb

an e

xpan

sion

, con

tinua

tion

of p

redo

m-

inan

ce o

f cer

tain

indu

strie

s, a

nd c

ontin

uatio

n of

pre

viou

s so

cial

stra

t-ifi

catio

n pa

ttern

s (H

aas,

Kat

es, a

nd B

owde

n 19

77).

The

tend

ency

for

a so

ciet

y to

retu

rn to

the

stat

us q

uo a

nte

afte

r war

can

be

expl

aine

d by

tw

o po

wer

ful f

orce

s — fe

ar o

f cha

nge

(par

ticul

arly

in a

soci

ety

that

has

al

read

y se

en s

o m

uch

nega

tive

tran

sfor

mat

ion)

and

the

desi

re o

f th

ose

who

con

trol e

xist

ing

inst

itutio

ns to

hol

d on

to p

ower

. If m

arke

t m

echa

nism

s ar

e re

lied

upon

too

heav

ily d

urin

g po

st-w

ar re

cons

truc-

tion,

cla

ss c

leav

ages

may

bec

ome

even

mor

e pr

onou

nced

than

bef

ore

the

war

. Und

erpr

ivile

ged

mem

bers

of s

ocie

ty a

re th

e m

ost v

ulne

rabl

e in

a d

isas

ter:

they

are

the

leas

t lik

ely

to li

ve in

wel

l-con

stru

cted

she

l-te

rs th

at m

ay s

urvi

ve a

ttack

s, a

nd th

e le

ast l

ikel

y to

hav

e sa

ving

s to

fa

ll ba

ck o

n fo

r the

repl

acem

ent o

f des

troy

ed p

osse

ssio

ns. S

ome

owne

rs a

nd m

erch

ants

, on

the

othe

r han

d, a

re a

ble

to b

enef

it fr

om

the

busi

ness

boo

ms

gene

rate

d by

the

floo

d of

res

ourc

es in

to th

e re

cons

truct

ion

effo

rt. T

hese

circ

umst

ance

s m

ust h

e bo

rne

in m

ind

at

ever

y st

age

of th

e pl

anni

ng p

roce

ss.

An

acce

ptab

le re

cons

truc

tion

proc

ess

muc

h lik

e an

app

ropr

iate

re

cons

truct

ion

stra

tegy

— w

ill, o

f cou

rse,

var

y fr

om c

ase

to c

ase.

Fur

-th

er r

esea

rch

into

the

criti

cally

impo

rtan

t pro

pert

ies

of p

ost-

war

re

cons

truc

tion

will

pro

vide

soc

ietie

s w

ith b

ette

r in

form

atio

n fo

r de

cisi

on-m

akin

g. T

he fo

llow

ing

set o

f hyp

othe

ses

is b

ased

on

exis

ting

liter

atur

e an

d th

e au

thor

's ex

peri

ence

with

dis

aste

r pl

anni

ng a

nd

post

-war

reco

nstr

uctio

n, a

nd is

off

ered

as

a fr

amew

ork

for f

urth

er

anal

ysis.

1.

Reco

nstr

uctio

n te

nds

to b

ecom

e po

litic

ized

and

fact

iona

lism

tend

s to

del

ay th

e re

cons

truc

tion

of w

ar-d

amag

ed a

reas

. W

ar s

imul

ta-

neou

sly

plac

es d

eman

ds o

n a

coun

try'

s re

sour

ces

and

incr

ease

s pu

blic

exp

ecta

tions

of p

ost-

war

eco

nom

ic im

prov

emen

ts. T

he

shor

tage

s th

at o

ccur

gen

erat

e so

ciet

al te

nsio

n an

d in

tens

ify p

res-

sure

on

the

stat

e to

impl

emen

t im

med

iate

cor

rect

ive

mea

sure

s.

Fact

ions

stru

ggle

ove

r rec

onst

ruct

ion

stra

tegy

(pla

nned

ver

sus

mar

ket a

ppro

ach)

and

ther

e is

redu

ced

polit

ical

will

for r

econ

- 173

172

A m

irahm

adi

Indu

stri

al d

evas

tatio

n in

Iran

stru

ctio

n of

war

-dam

aged

are

as. A

lthou

gh th

ere

is g

ener

al a

gree

-m

ent a

bout

the

need

to re

solv

e ec

onom

ic c

rises

, pol

itica

l fa

ctio

n-ali

sm m

ay p

reve

nt s

peci

fic

mea

sure

s fr

om b

eing

impl

emen

ted.

E

nvir

onm

enta

l dib

asic

's —

incl

udin

g th

ose

that

are

con

nect

ed

with

indu

strie

s — a

re, h

owev

er, a

mor

e se

rious

mat

ter t

hat c

anno

t lo

ng b

e ig

nore

d. A

s a

resu

lt, th

ey te

nd to

requ

ire e

xpen

ditu

re o

f na

tiona

l res

ourc

es in

the

post

-war

per

iod.

2.

Rec

onst

ruct

ion

is e

ssen

tial t

hera

py fo

r a

wou

nded

soc

iety

. So

cial

th

erap

y ce

ntre

s on

peo

ple

rebu

ildin

g th

eir c

omm

uniti

es, b

oth

phys

ical

ly a

nd e

mot

iona

lly, a

nd th

is p

roce

ss c

an s

ucce

ed o

nly

if th

ere

is a

nat

iona

l com

mitm

ent t

o he

alin

g. L

ong-

term

hab

itabi

lity

mus

t bec

ome

a pr

iorit

y an

d th

e gu

idin

g go

al o

f the

reco

nstru

ctio

n.

3.E

nfor

cem

ent o

f leg

al s

afet

y co

des

and

prov

isio

n of

soc

ial i

nsur

-an

ce a

re e

ssen

tial t

o re

cons

truc

tion.

Thi

s is

par

ticul

arly

true

whe

n in

dust

rial h

azar

ds a

re p

erva

sive

and

env

ironm

enta

l deg

rada

tion

has

beco

me

thre

aten

ing.

The

imm

edia

te p

ost-w

ar p

erio

d ge

ner-

ates

hig

h em

otio

ns a

nd p

ress

ures

for r

apid

resp

onse

, and

ther

e is

an

und

erst

anda

ble

tend

ency

tow

ard

quic

k fix

es. H

owev

er, q

uick

fi

xes

may

ulti

mat

ely

be m

uch

mor

e co

stly

than

mor

e co

mpr

e-he

nsiv

e re

pairs

. Uns

afe

indu

stria

l site

s an

d po

orly

reco

nstru

cted

bu

ildin

gs p

ose

dang

erou

s ha

zard

s fo

r rec

onst

ruct

ion

wor

kers

and

re

side

nts,

with

bot

h m

oral

and

mat

eria

l con

sequ

ence

s.

4.Ju

st a

s re

cons

truc

tion

afte

r na

tura

l dis

aste

r m

ust b

e us

ed to

pre

-pa

re fo

r or

miti

gate

the

effe

cts

of th

e ne

xt d

isas

ter,

so

mus

t pos

t-w

ar r

econ

stru

ctio

n be

use

d to

red

uce

the

risk

of a

noth

er w

ar a

nd

its c

onse

quen

t ind

ustr

ial h

azar

ds b

y in

corp

orat

ing

the

caus

es o

f th

e w

ar in

to th

e st

rate

gy it

self.

In

add

ition

to w

ar-re

duct

ion

stra

t-eg

ies,

a n

atio

n m

ust a

lso

adop

t pre

vent

ive

stra

tegi

es th

at re

duce

in

dust

rial

haz

ard.

The

refo

re, n

atio

nal a

nd in

dust

rial

sec

urity

sc

hem

es, a

nd d

efen

sive

and

pre

vent

ive

mea

sure

s, b

ecom

e m

ajor

co

mpo

nent

s of

the

post

-war

reco

nstru

ctio

n. T

hese

mea

sure

s ar

e be

st a

chie

ved

by e

mph

asiz

ing

peac

e an

d by

reno

unci

ng w

ar a

s a

mea

ns to

set

tle d

ispu

te. S

ever

al s

trat

egie

s ca

n he

use

d to

ope

r-at

iona

lize

this

goa

l. Fi

rst,

ther

e m

ust b

e w

ide

reco

gniti

on o

f the

fa

ct th

at a

goo

d de

fenc

e po

licy

mus

t be

base

d on

dip

lom

acy,

as

wel

l as

on th

e fa

ct th

at m

aint

aini

ng a

n of

fens

ive

forc

e at

the

expe

nse

of e

cono

mic

dev

elop

men

t doe

s lit

tle to

war

d in

crea

sing

a

natio

n's

shar

e of

the

inte

rnat

iona

l bal

ance

of p

ower

. Sec

ond,

pe

ople

's at

titud

es to

war

d th

e en

emy

as w

ell a

s to

war

d th

e w

ar

and

envi

ronm

enta

l saf

ety

mus

t be

trans

form

ed. T

his

may

pro

ve

diff

icul

t, pa

rtic

ular

ly a

fter

a d

efea

t, bu

t rec

onst

ruct

ioni

sts

can

174

play

an

impo

rtan

t rol

e as

pea

ce a

ctiv

ists

, as

wel

l as

envi

ron-

men

talis

ts, a

nd e

duca

tion

can

be ta

rget

ed to

war

d re

duci

ng th

e co

untr

y's

zeal

for w

ar a

nd in

crea

sing

its

appr

ecia

tion

of e

co-

logi

cal s

afet

y. R

ealis

tic d

efen

sive

mea

sure

s th

at a

re d

esig

ned

to

impr

ove

a na

tion'

s pe

rcep

tion

of s

ecur

ity c

an b

e bu

ilt in

to th

e re

cons

truct

ion

proc

ess,

as

can

prev

entiv

e m

easu

res

that

impr

ove

indu

stria

l sec

urity

. Bor

der a

reas

mus

t be

repo

pula

ted

and

phys

i-ca

lly re

cons

truct

ed w

ith th

e ex

plic

it go

al o

f sec

urity

, whi

le s

tra-

tegi

c ec

onom

ic a

ctiv

ities

and

indu

stri

al p

lant

s ca

n be

relo

cate

d to

saf

er p

lace

s. R

egio

nal g

over

nmen

t and

mili

tary

inst

alla

tions

m

ust b

e re

forg

ed w

ith a

n ey

e to

terr

itori

al b

alan

ce a

nd c

ultu

ral

inte

grat

ion.

5.

War

dam

age,

indu

stri

al h

azar

ds, a

nd r

econ

stru

ctio

n ne

eds

mus

t be

care

fully

det

erm

ined

and

ass

esse

d. A

n as

sess

men

t of w

ar d

amag

e an

d in

dust

rial h

azar

ds re

quire

s an

inte

rdis

cipl

inar

y ap

proa

ch, f

or

dam

age

and

haza

rd s

ituat

ions

diff

er in

term

s of

thei

r phy

sica

l and

ch

emic

al n

atur

e, th

e so

cial

con

sequ

ence

s th

ey g

ener

ate,

and

the

econ

omic

feas

ibili

ty o

f the

ir re

pair

and

cle

an-u

ps. S

kille

d pr

o-fe

ssio

nals

in a

ll di

scip

lines

, as

wel

l as

the

popu

latio

n at

larg

e,

mus

t joi

n to

geth

er to

form

a c

onse

nsus

on

rebu

ildin

g pr

iorit

ies.

R

ecor

d ke

epin

g of

dam

age

and

haza

rds

is e

ssen

tial.

Am

ong

othe

r th

ings

, car

eful

ly k

ept r

ecor

ds o

f dam

age

avoi

d co

nfus

ion

over

ow

ners

hip

and

prov

ide

help

in d

eter

min

ing

com

pens

atio

n fo

r war

vi

ctim

s, ta

rget

ing

prio

rity

reco

nstr

uctio

n pr

ojec

ts, a

nd lo

catin

g re

sour

ces.

6.

Exi

stin

g an

d po

tent

ial r

esou

rces

far

reco

nstr

uctio

n an

d cl

ean-

ups

mus

t be

quic

kly

iden

tifie

d an

d m

obili

zed.

Th

e m

obili

zatio

n of

res

ourc

es m

ust b

egin

with

an

iden

tific

atio

n of

thei

r ty

pe,

qual

ity, a

mou

nt, d

istr

ibut

ion,

cos

ts, f

unct

ion,

eas

e of

use

, and

im

pact

. Ind

igen

ous

reso

urce

s m

ust b

e di

stin

guis

hed

from

ext

er-

nal r

esou

rces

, and

thes

e re

sour

ces

mus

t be

wei

ghed

in te

rms

of th

eir p

oten

tial t

o ca

use

depe

nden

cy, u

nwan

ted

cont

rol o

ver

deve

lopm

ent,

and

unev

en d

evel

opm

ent.

Aft

er r

esou

rces

are

id

entif

ied

and

anal

ysed

, the

y m

ust b

e m

obili

zed.

Mob

iliza

tion

will

dep

end

larg

ely

on g

over

nmen

t act

ion,

but

can

eff

ectiv

ely

be

augm

ente

d th

roug

h th

e ut

iliza

tion

of g

rass

-roo

ts o

rgan

izat

ions

su

ch a

s se

lf-h

elp

proj

ects

, wom

en's

grou

ps, a

nd c

oope

rativ

es

desi

gned

to tr

ain

peop

le a

nd p

rovi

de m

ater

ials

for r

ebui

ldin

g.

Mili

tary

per

sonn

el c

an b

ecom

e cl

ean-

up c

rew

s an

d re

build

ers.

Pu

blic

and

priv

ate

initi

ativ

es, s

uch

as th

e se

lling

of w

ar b

onds

and

se

lf-fin

anci

ng, w

ill h

elp

the

gove

rnm

ent t

ap p

erso

nal w

ealth

for

175

A m

irah

mad

i

mob

iliza

tion.

Mat

eria

l res

ourc

es c

an b

e m

obili

zed

by ex

pand

in

min

eral

expl

orat

ion

and

by re

lyin

g on

loca

l mat

eria

ls fo

r bui

ld.

ing.

Effe

ctiv

e co

mm

unic

atio

n an

d tra

nspo

rtatio

n sy

stem

s are

vita

l fo

r re

sour

ce m

obili

zatio

n.

7.Su

cces

sful

rec

onst

ruct

ion

and

haza

rd r

educ

tion

depe

nd o

n ac

cu-

rate

tim

ing.

Sp

eed

is es

sent

ial i

n ha

rnes

sing

polit

ical

will

an

d pu

blic

enth

usia

sm b

efor

e allo

catio

n of

dw

indl

ing

reso

urce

s ind

u ce

s pes

simism

. The

firs

t ste

p in

pos

t-disa

ster

pla

nnin

g is

an a

nal-

ysis

to d

eter

min

e the

caus

e and

cons

eque

nces

of t

he d

isast

er. T

he

optim

al ti

me

for

reco

nstr

uctio

n an

d cl

ean-

ups i

s afte

r th

e w

ar,

whe

n pe

ople

are

ret

urni

ng to

war

-dam

aged

are

as a

nd c

an b

e in

volv

ed in

the p

roce

ss. T

he b

est t

ime t

o pl

an, h

owev

er, i

s dur

ing

the w

ar so

that

the n

atio

n is

read

y to

rebu

ild a

s soo

n as

the w

ar

is ov

er. I

t is

doub

tful i

f the

exist

ing

indu

stri

al d

isast

er re

spon

se

plan

s (lik

e a U

S Su

perf

und-

style

prog

ram

me)

inte

nded

for p

eace

-tim

e use

will

wor

k du

ring

or a

fter a

war

. 8.

Reco

nstr

uctio

n sh

ould

be

defin

ed, p

lann

ed, a

nd im

plem

ente

d in

sta

ges.

Acc

ordi

ng to

exist

ing

liter

atur

e abo

ut d

isast

er p

lann

ing,

th

e m

ain

stag

es a

re e

mer

genc

y, r

esto

ratio

n, r

epla

cem

ent,

and

deve

lopm

enta

l rec

onst

ruct

ion

(Am

irah

mad

i l99

0b: 2

68).

Thes

e st

ages

are

not

nec

essa

rily

chr

onol

ogic

al, n

or a

re th

ey m

utua

lly

excl

usiv

e. Th

e dur

atio

n of

each

stag

e will

var

y ac

cord

ing

to th

e sc

ale

of th

e di

sast

er, t

he le

vel o

f com

mitm

ent t

o cl

ean-

up a

nd

reco

nstr

uctio

n, a

nd th

e ab

ility

of a

soci

ety

to c

ope

with

the

dis-

aste

r an

d to

form

ulat

e st

rate

gies

. Oth

er fa

ctor

s inc

lude

ava

il-ab

ility

of r

esou

rces

and

the

gove

rnm

ent's

abi

lity

to m

obili

ze

them

, qua

lity

of le

ader

ship

, the

spee

d at

whi

ch d

ecis

ions

are

m

ade a

nd im

plem

ente

d, ex

isten

ce o

f pop

ular

and

hum

anita

rian

or

gani

zatio

ns, a

nd in

tern

atio

nal c

oope

ratio

n.

The g

oal o

f the

em

erge

ncy

stage

is to

cop

e w

ith th

e di

saste

r and

to

hel

p vi

ctim

s sur

vive

. The

urg

ency

of t

his

stag

e pre

clud

es a

ny

real

pla

nnin

g; in

this

case

the

plan

ning

mus

t com

e be

fore

the

disa

ster.

It in

clude

s suc

h ac

tiviti

es a

s sea

rch,

resc

ue, m

ass f

eedi

ng,

clea

ranc

e of

deb

ris,

para

med

ical

hel

p, a

nd p

rovi

sion

of sh

elte

r an

d ot

her b

asic

nee

ds fo

r the

vic

tim. T

he p

rim

ary

reso

urce

s for

th

e em

erge

ncy

stag

e are

com

mun

ity em

erge

ncy

serv

ices

and

self-

help

, alth

ough

inte

rnat

iona

l rel

ief a

genc

ies o

ften

may

pro

vide

as

sista

nce.

The e

mer

genc

y st

age o

verl

aps w

ith th

e res

tora

tion,

or

reco

very

, sta

ge, i

n w

hich

the

goal

is to

mak

e th

e co

mm

unity

at

leas

t par

tially

func

tiona

l. D

amag

ed st

ruct

ures

are

pat

ched

up

or

retr

ofitt

ed a

nd m

ade u

sabl

e aga

in. T

his s

tage

obv

ious

ly in

volv

es

Indu

stria

l dev

asta

tion

in Ir

an

mor

e co

mpr

ehen

sive

pla

nnin

g, a

s w

ell a

s gr

eate

r nee

d fo

r re-

sour

ces,

par

ticul

arly

con

stru

ctio

n m

ater

ialu

res. I

tem

pora

ry, a

nd

nves

tmen

ts a

nd

expe

nditu

res

duri

ng th

is s

tage

are

by

nat

repa

irs g

ener

ally

requ

ire a

seco

nd, m

ore

perm

anen

t inv

estm

ent.

The

goal

of t

he re

plac

emen

t sta

ge is

to re

turn

the

com

mun

ity

to its

pre

-disa

ster

stat

e thr

ough

the c

reat

ion

serv

ices,

of p

erm

anen

t hou

s-

ing,

the r

etur

n of

disp

lace

d pe

rson

s, re

sum

ptio

n of

pub

lic re

quire

s re

viva

l of i

ndus

trie

s, an

d th

e cr

eati

wel

l as m

assiv

e re

sour

ces.

on as

of j

obs.

This

stage

subs

tant

ial c

ompr

ehen

sive p

lann

ing

It

shou

ld b

e fol

lowe

d —

or e

ven

acco

mpa

nied

— b

y a

four

th st

age,

deve

lopm

enta

l rec

onstr

uctio

n, in

whi

chve

l e l t

heC

ombi

ning

pol

icy

and

goal

is to

dev

elop

the

com

mun

ity b

eyon

d th

e pre

-disa

ster

.

reso

urce

s for

the r

epla

cem

ent a

nd d

evel

opm

ent

staof

ten

lead

s ge

s may

miti

-

gate

the t

ende

ncy

to p

atch

thin

gs q

uick

ly, w

hich

to

doub

le in

vest

men

t and

was

te. T

h st

e de

velo

pmen

t rec

onru

ctio

n

stag

e is v

ery

diffi

cult

in a

war

-torn

soci

ety,

for w

ars

do n

ot si

m-

reve

nt so

ciet

y fr

om

o ac

tion

capa

city

and

pl

y de

stro

y pa

rt o

f wha

t exi

sts:

they

also

p

mak

ing

new

inve

stm

ents

, fro

m u

tiliz

ingd

tech

nica

l cap

abili

ties.

prd

reso

urce

s, an

d fr

om d

evel

opin

g sk

ills a

n

9.Re

cons

truc

tion

and

haza

rd r

emov

al m

ust b

e pr

oper

ly a

nd e

ffi-

cien

tly m

anag

ed.

The

gove

rnm

ent m

ust,

of c

ours

e, a

ssum

e ul

ti-

mat

e res

pons

ibili

ty fo

r man

agem

ent,

yet c

erta

in lo

cal f

unct

ions

co

uld

be a

ssum

ed b

y gr

ass-

root

s org

aniz

atio

ns. A

com

preh

ensiv

e m

anag

emen

t sys

tem

can

be

embo

died

in o

ne o

f thr

ee fo

rms o

f

gove

rnm

ent b

urea

ucra

cy —

esta

blish

men

t of

a sp

ecia

lized

new

lammi

ng,

lann

ing,

cre

atio

n of

m

inist

ry fo

r re

cons

truc

tion

and

disa

ster

p

reco

nstr

uctio

n an

d di

saste

r-m

anag

emen

t offi

ces w

ithin

th

e ex

ist-

uarte

rs

ing

min

istri

es, o

r for

mat

ion

of a

hea

dq

with

in th

e ex

ecu-

tive

offic

e fo

r the

jobs

. 10

.Pr

ogre

ss m

ade

tow

ard

reco

nstr

uctio

n an

d cl

ean-

upll

i m

ust b

e do

cu-

men

ted

and

eval

uate

d. R

esul

ts sh

ould

be

perio

dcay

pub

lishe

d in

acad

emic

and

pro

fess

iona

l, as

wel

l asp

opu

lar,

med

ia. E

valu

atio

n

of re

cons

truct

ion

and

haza

rd-r

emov

al a

ctiv

ities

shou

ld b

e un

der-

ta

ken

by in

depe

nden

t age

ncie

s th

at h

ave

acce

ss to

key

gov

ern-

m

enta

l dat

a an

d po

licie

s bu

t rem

ain

outs

ide

the

gove

rnm

ent's

sphe

re o

f dire

ct in

fluen

ce.

Impr

ovin

g re

cove

ry a

nd p

olic

y im

plic

atio

ns

Thi

s ch

apte

r has

ana

lyse

d th

e re

latio

nshi

p of

war

, com

mun

ity d

e-

stru

ctio

n, a

nd in

dust

rial

dis

aste

r in

term

s of

Ira

n's

expe

rien

ce. 177

176

A in

iralo

nadi

It ha

s sh

own

how

par

ticul

ar is

sues

of r

ecov

ery

from

indu

stri

al d

isas-

ters

bec

ame

caug

ht u

p in

bro

ader

con

cern

s of r

ecov

ery

from

mor

e en

com

pass

ing

dam

age t

o th

e com

mun

ity, a

nd it

has

hig

hlig

hted

the

role

of m

acro

econ

omic

pla

nnin

g iss

ues.

Furt

her,

the

chap

ter

has

expl

ored

inte

rcon

nect

ions

am

ong

loca

l-lev

el re

cons

truc

tion

prio

ritie

s an

d na

tiona

l-lev

el g

oals,

dem

onst

ratin

g ho

w —

in Ir

an's

case

— th

e la

tter b

ecam

e dom

inan

t in

the c

ours

e of p

ost-w

ar re

cons

truc

tion.

Thi

s tr

end,

in tu

rn, l

ed to

a lo

wer

pri

ority

for

haza

rd c

lean

-up

and

for

rebu

ildin

g in

dustr

ies w

ith lo

w va

lue-

adde

d at

trib

utes

. Int

erve

ntio

n by

th

e int

erna

tiona

l com

mun

ity in

the p

ost-w

ar p

eace

and

reco

nstr

uc-

tion

effo

rts w

as sh

own

to h

ave b

een

min

imal

bec

ause

of I

ran'

s fra

c-tu

red

imag

e in

the W

est.

This

may

not

, how

ever

, be t

he ca

se in

oth

er

situa

tions

whe

re th

e nat

iona

l lea

ders

hip

mai

ntai

ns g

ood

cont

acts

with

th

e int

erna

tiona

l com

mun

ity.

Iran

's ex

peri

ence

sugg

ests

that

the p

roce

ss o

f pla

nnin

g fo

r ind

us-

tria

l haz

ards

mus

t tak

e in

to c

onsid

erat

ion

the

cont

ext o

f war

time

econ

omic

dam

age.

Afte

r a w

ar, t

he k

now

ledg

e tha

t des

truc

tion

was

th

e int

ent o

f an

aggr

esso

r put

s rec

over

y an

d re

cons

truc

tion

initi

ativ

es

in a

spec

ial l

ight

. Per

cept

ions

of m

ilita

ry a

nd d

iplo

mat

ic se

curi

ty

beco

me c

ruci

al to

the p

roce

ss o

f nat

iona

l reh

abili

tatio

n. D

emor

aliz

a-

tion

that

acc

ompa

nies

war

has

the p

oten

tial t

o th

war

t the

indu

stri

al

rebu

ildin

g pr

oces

s, pa

rtic

ular

ly if

such

effo

rts a

re a

lrea

dy h

ampe

red

by a

n ab

senc

e of

suffi

cien

t res

ourc

es, o

r if

the

fron

tier

of im

pact

is

subj

ect t

o po

ssib

le r

epea

ted

atta

cks.

In c

ases

such

as t

hese

, the

di

sast

er c

ycle

of e

mer

genc

y re

lief,

rest

orat

ion,

rep

lace

men

t, an

d re

cons

truc

tion

is un

dert

aken

aga

in a

nd a

gain

, ea

ch ti

me p

rogr

essiv

ely

erod

ing

the r

esili

ence

and

reso

urce

s of t

he a

ffect

ed p

opul

atio

n.

Mor

eove

r, be

caus

e the

impa

ct o

f war

is m

ore c

ompl

ex a

nd p

erva

-siv

e tha

n th

at o

f nat

ural

disa

ster

s or p

eace

time i

ndus

tria

l disa

ster

s, po

st-w

ar re

cons

truc

tion

is an

espe

cial

ly ch

alle

ngin

g ta

sk. F

or ex

am-

ple,

afte

r an

indu

stri

al d

isast

er, a

ffect

ed fa

cilit

ies a

re u

sual

ly ei

ther

re

pair

ed a

nd r

eope

ned

— w

ith o

r w

ithou

t im

prov

emen

ts —

or

are

clos

ed d

own,

aba

ndon

ed, o

r re

mov

ed. I

n ei

ther

cas

e, e

xplic

it an

d sw

ift d

ecisi

ons a

bout

the f

utur

e of t

hese

faci

litie

s are

gen

eral

ly ta

ken

by o

wne

rs a

nd g

over

nmen

ts. D

urin

g w

ars,

the

sam

e fa

cilit

ies m

ay

cont

inue

to o

pera

te in

an

impa

ired

state

for l

ong

perio

ds, a

fter p

artia

l an

d te

mpo

rary

repa

irs h

ave b

een

mad

e, or

they

may

rem

ain

inop

er-

able

unt

il su

ch ti

mes

as f

orm

al d

ecisi

ons a

bout

thei

r fu

ture

can

be

take

n at

the c

oncl

usio

n of

hos

tiliti

es. I

n sh

ort,

the c

ours

e of r

ecov

ery

from

a w

ar-in

duce

d in

dust

rial

disa

ster

is li

kely

to d

iffer

from

that

wh

ich o

ccur

s in

peac

etim

e.

Indu

stria

l dev

asta

tion

in Ir

an

The p

roce

ss o

f mai

ntai

ning

a w

ar ef

fort

and

the p

roce

ss o

f pos

t-war

re

cons

truc

tion

are l

inks

in th

e sam

e cha

in, a

nd th

at ch

ain

is fo

rged

of

mat

eria

ls an

d m

oney

. War

s cos

t phe

nom

enal

am

ount

s of m

oney

, whi

le w

ar d

amag

e is p

reci

sely

calc

ulat

ed to

redu

ce a

n en

emy'

s cap

acity

to

finan

ce a

war

. The

war

effo

rt o

ften

abso

rbs s

o m

uch

gove

rnm

ent

reve

nue t

hat t

here

are

few

rese

rves

left

for r

econ

struc

tion

or cl

ean-

up

work

. Lac

k of

fund

ing

for r

elief

, haz

ard

redu

ctio

n, a

nd re

cons

truc

tion

beco

mes

par

ticul

arly

seve

re if

the n

atio

ns en

gage

d in

war

cont

inue

to

feel

thre

aten

ed a

nd su

bseq

uent

ly fe

el co

mpe

lled

to ch

anne

l the

few

re

mai

ning

fund

s int

o th

e mili

tary

. A g

over

nmen

t's ti

me a

nd la

bour

m

ay b

e sp

ent i

n ev

alua

ting

the

futu

re p

oten

tial o

f its

ow

n ar

med

fo

rces

, ins

tead

of f

irst

ana

lysin

g th

e im

pact

of w

ar d

estr

uctio

n an

d as

soci

ated

indu

stri

al h

azar

ds a

nd th

en d

eter

min

ing

the b

est p

lan

for

heal

ing

soci

ety

and

rein

vigo

ratin

g ec

onom

ic p

rodu

ctiv

ity.

Iran

's e

xper

ienc

e pr

ovid

es in

sigh

ts a

bout

the

com

pone

nts o

f a

mod

el o

f disa

ster

-impa

ct a

sses

smen

t and

reco

very

for w

ar-d

amag

ed

soci

etie

s, he

lps t

o sp

ecify

pos

sible

obs

tacl

es to

rec

onst

ruct

ion,

and

su

gges

ts w

ays o

f im

prov

ing

impl

emen

tatio

n. H

owev

er, i

f the

con

-ce

ptua

l fra

mew

ork

deve

lope

d in

this

chap

ter

wer

e to

be

appl

ied

to

Iran

, it w

ould

forc

e the

gov

ernm

ent t

o be

com

e mor

e con

cern

ed w

ith

indu

stri

al h

azar

ds a

nd w

ays o

f rec

over

ing

from

them

than

has

bee

n th

e ca

se so

far.

Unf

ortu

nate

ly, I

ran'

s rel

ativ

e ne

glec

t of i

ndus

tria

l ha

zard

s in

the

larg

er r

ecov

ery

proc

ess i

s not

at a

ll un

ique

. In

mos

t de

velo

ping

nat

ions

, whe

re re

sour

ces a

re sc

arce

and

mac

roec

onom

ic

dist

ortio

ns te

nd to

des

tabi

lize r

egim

es, e

cono

mic

mat

ters

take

pre

ce-

denc

e ov

er e

nvir

onm

enta

l con

cern

s. Th

is is

as tr

ue o

f nat

ions

that

ha

ve g

one t

hrou

gh a

war

as i

t is o

f nat

ions

that

hav

e bee

n at

pea

ce fo

r de

cade

s. Th

eref

ore,

the m

odel

pro

pose

d in

this

chap

ter m

ay b

e con

-sid

ered

equa

lly a

pplic

able

to m

any

deve

lopi

ng n

atio

ns th

at fa

ce ec

o-no

mic

decli

ne a

nd re

cove

ry fr

om m

an-m

ade o

r nat

ural

disa

sters

.

Not

es

I. S

ome

over

view

s of

the

war

pro

vide

ske

tchy

info

rmat

ion

abou

t the

war

's im

pact

on

Iraq

's

popu

lati

on a

nd e

nvir

onm

ent.

See,

for

exam

ple,

Kub

ba (1

993)

. 2.

Tha

t tre

aty

had

been

bas

ed o

n pr

inci

ples

of "

terr

itori

al in

tegr

ity, t

he in

viol

abili

ty o

f bor

ders

, an

d no

n-in

terf

eren

ce in

inte

rnal

aff

airs

." I

t was

inte

nded

to s

ettl

e po

litic

al a

nd te

rrit

oria

l di

sput

es b

etw

een

the

two

gove

rnm

ents

and

to e

nsur

e sh

ared

sov

erei

gnty

ove

r th

e Sh

att-

al-

Ara

b w

ater

way

, whi

ch p

rovi

des

both

cou

ntri

es w

ith

vita

l acc

ess

to th

e P

ersi

an G

ulf.

Pre

si-

dent

Hus

sein

pro

clai

med

that

he

had

ampl

e ju

stifi

catio

n fo

r an

nulli

ng th

e tr

eaty

bec

ause

Ira

n ha

d al

lege

dly

brok

en it

by

refu

sing

to r

elin

quis

h te

rrito

rial

rig

hts

and

by in

terf

erin

g in

Ira

q's

inte

rnal

aff

airs

. In

retr

ospe

ct, e

vide

nce

sugg

ests

that

Pre

side

nt H

usse

in w

as a

lso

mot

ivat

ed

by o

ther

inte

rest

s in

clud

ing

the

pros

pect

of g

aini

ng fu

ll so

vere

ignt

y ov

er th

e Sh

att-

al-A

rab,

178

179

A m

irah

mad

i

cont

rol o

f K

huze

stan

pro

vinc

e (w

here

ove

r 90

per

cen

t of

Iran

's o

il re

serv

es a

re lo

cate

d), t

he

poss

ibil

ity

of in

stal

ling

a p

ro-I

raq

gove

rnm

ent i

n Ir

an, a

nd th

e pr

ospe

ct o

f se

curi

ng a

re

gion

al le

ader

ship

rol

e fo

r Ir

aq in

the

afte

rmat

h of

the

Sha

h's

over

thro

w.

3.T

he P

ersi

an G

ulf

is a

long

, sha

llow

, rel

ativ

ely

narr

ow, s

emi-

encl

osed

sea

that

rec

eive

s on

ly)

limite

d fr

eshw

ater

inpu

ts f

rom

riv

ers

and

poss

esse

s w

eak

flus

hing

cur

rent

s. T

he e

ntir

e sy

stem

is

rea

dily

dis

rupt

ed b

y po

llut

ants

. The

wea

k ti

dal c

urre

nts

prev

ent r

apid

dis

sipa

tion

of

con.

ta

min

ants

, whi

ch r

emai

n in

the

wat

er -

the

non-

vola

tile

com

pone

nts

of o

il f

alli

ng to

the

bott

om a

nd c

onti

nuin

g to

cau

se d

amag

e fo

r m

any

year

s. T

he f

ood

chai

n, w

hich

nor

mal

ly

sust

ains

250

spe

cies

of

fish

and

app

roxi

mat

ely

140

spec

ies

of m

igra

ting

bir

ds, i

s se

vere

ly

thre

aten

ed. H

igh

tem

pera

ture

s, s

hallo

w w

ater

s, a

nd h

igh

win

ds, w

hich

cha

ract

eriz

e th

e G

ulf,

ca

use

rapi

d ev

apor

atio

n, in

crea

sing

the

salin

ity o

f th

e w

ater

and

con

trib

utin

g to

the

stre

ss o

f or

gani

sms

livin

g th

ere.

Con

tam

inat

ion

by o

il an

d he

avy

met

als

stre

sses

the

ecos

yste

m e

ven

furt

her.

Cru

de o

il co

ntai

ns s

uch

heav

y m

etal

s as

mer

cury

, cad

miu

m, a

nd v

anad

ium

, as

wel

l as

othe

r ca

rcin

ogen

ic c

hem

ical

age

nts.

Com

mer

cial

fis

hing

in th

e ar

ea is

sev

erel

y re

stri

cted

, and

re

plen

ishm

ent o

f G

ulf

stoc

ks f

rom

the

ocea

n w

ill b

e ve

ry s

low

. For

Ira

n, a

s w

ell a

s fo

r ot

her

coun

trie

s th

at d

epen

d on

Gul

f fi

sh f

or d

aily

pro

tein

req

uire

men

ts, t

he d

estr

ucti

on o

f th

e fi

shin

g in

dust

ry m

eans

inc

reas

ed f

ood

impo

rts,

fur

ther

exa

cerb

atin

g fo

reig

n cu

rren

cy

rese

rves

and

fos

teri

ng d

epen

denc

ies

on o

ther

cou

ntri

es f

or b

asic

foo

dstu

ffs.

4.

The

tall

y of

dir

ect e

cono

mic

dam

age

may

be

slig

htly

infl

ated

bec

ause

the

gove

rnm

ent's

im

med

iate

con

cern

was

to p

rovi

de c

ompe

nsat

ion.

Any

infl

atio

n at

trib

utab

le to

this

cau

se is

lik

ely

to b

e of

fset

by

the

abse

nce

of s

ome

type

s of

rea

l eco

nom

ic c

osts

, suc

h as

env

iron

men

tal

cons

eque

nces

, con

cess

ions

giv

en to

reg

iona

l all

ies,

incr

ease

d in

sura

nce

cost

s, a

nd th

e ps

y-ch

olog

ical

and

soc

iocu

ltura

l cos

ts o

f th

e w

ar (

Am

irah

mad

i 199

2a: 6

9).

5.T

he W

orld

Ban

k re

spon

ded

by g

ivin

g a

few

sm

all l

oans

to I

ran

for

reco

nstr

ucti

on o

f ea

rth-

quak

e-da

mag

ed a

reas

($2

50 m

illio

n) a

nd f

or im

prov

ing

urba

n in

fras

truc

ture

($6

7 m

illio

n). I

n 19

93, a

noth

er lo

an f

or $

162

mill

ion

was

app

rove

d fo

r th

e ex

pans

ion

of a

pow

er-g

ener

atin

g pl

ant i

n Q

um c

ity.

IM

F a

nd th

e B

ank

have

hel

ped

the

Iran

ian

gove

rnm

ent t

o fo

rmul

ate

an

econ

omic

sta

bili

zati

on p

rogr

amm

e bu

t ha

ve n

ot a

s ye

t res

pond

ed to

req

uest

s fo

r a

maj

or

loan

. Reg

iona

l aut

hori

ties

, suc

h as

the

Org

aniz

atio

n of

Isl

amic

Con

fere

nce,

the

Ara

b L

ea-

gue,

and

the

Gul

f C

oope

ratio

n C

ounc

il, h

ave

larg

ely

rem

aine

d in

activ

e (A

mir

ahm

adi 1

992a

: 27

7). B

y id

enti

fyin

g Ir

aq a

s th

e ag

gres

sor

stat

e, th

e U

nite

d N

atio

ns S

ecur

ity

Cou

ncil

has

pr

ovid

ed a

n im

plic

it ba

sis

for

rest

itutio

n by

the

Iraq

i gov

ernm

ent.

It is

like

ly th

at I

ran

wou

ld

have

reg

aine

d in

tern

atio

nal r

espe

ctab

ilit

y am

ong

the

com

mun

ity

of n

atio

ns a

nd b

een

the

bene

fici

ary

of in

crea

sed

inte

rnat

iona

l ass

ista

nce

if it

was

not

for

con

tinue

d op

posi

tion

by th

e U

nite

d St

ates

. 6.

Eco

logi

cal r

esto

rati

on s

houl

d gu

ide

the

othe

r go

als

and

take

pri

orit

y be

caus

e it

und

erpi

ns

hum

an h

ealt

h; in

oth

er w

ords

, res

tora

tion

of

hum

an h

ealt

h an

d lo

ng-t

erm

env

iron

men

tal

habi

tabi

lity

are

pre

cond

itio

ns f

or th

e ge

nera

l rev

ival

of

soci

ety.

Pla

ns a

nd p

roje

cts

mus

t be

draw

n up

for

env

iron

men

tal c

lean

-up

and

rem

oval

of

haza

rdou

s si

tuat

ions

in v

ario

us e

co-

nom

ic s

ecto

rs, i

ndus

trie

s in

par

ticul

ar,

whe

re s

uch

haza

rds

tend

to p

ose

heal

th p

robl

ems

and

crea

te o

bsta

cles

for

reb

uild

ing.

Ach

ievi

ng e

cono

mic

vit

alit

y is

a tw

o-pa

rt p

roce

ss w

hich

hi

nges

, fir

st, o

n m

akin

g th

e m

ost o

f av

aila

ble

reso

urce

s an

d re

mov

ing

supp

ly b

ottl

enec

ks

(e.g

. in

fore

ign

exch

ange

and

ski

lled

labo

ur)

and,

sec

ond,

on

achi

evin

g ec

onom

ic g

row

th.

Ref

eren

ces

Am

irah

mad

i, H

oosh

ang.

198

7. "

Des

truc

tion

and

reco

nstr

uctio

n: A

str

ateg

y fo

r th

e w

ar d

amag

ed a

reas

of I

ran.

" In

tern

atio

nal J

ourn

al o

f Dis

aste

r Stu

dies

and

Pra

ctic

e 11

(2):

134

-147

.

. 199

0a. "

Eco

nom

ic r

econ

stru

ctio

n of

Ira

n: C

ostin

g th

e w

ar

dam

age.

" Th

ird

Wor

ld Q

uarte

rly 1

2(1)

: 26-

47.

180

Indu

stria

l dev

asta

tion

in Ir

an

1990

b. R

evol

utio

n an

d E

cono

mic

Tra

nsiti

on.

Alb

any,

New

Yor

k: S

tate

Uni

-

vers

ity o

f New

Yor

k Pr

ess.

-.

199

2a. "

Eco

nom

ic c

osts

of

the

war

and

the

reco

nstr

ucti

on in

Ira

n."

In: C

yrus

Bin

a an

d H

amid

Zan

gene

h, e

ds.

Mod

ern

Cap

italis

m a

nd Is

lam

ic Id

eolo

gy in

Iran

.

New

Yor

k: S

t. M

artin

's P

ress

. 19

92b.

"E

cono

mic

des

truc

tion

and

imba

lanc

es in

pos

t-re

volu

tion

ary

Iran

."

In: H

. Am

irah

mad

i and

N. E

ntes

sar,

eds

. Re

cons

truct

ion

and

Reg

iona

l Dip

lom

acy

in th

e Pe

rsia

n G

ulf.

Lon

don:

Rou

tledg

e.

Ath

ari,

Dja

mal

. 199

1. "

Rev

olut

iona

ry c

hang

es a

nd p

ost-

war

rec

onst

ruct

ion

in

Iran

."

In: R

eviv

ing

War

Dam

aged

Set

tlem

ents

. A

Rep

ort a

nd C

hart

er p

repa

red

in c

onne

c-

tion

with

the

Thi

rd I

nter

natio

nal Y

ork

Wor

ksho

p on

Set

tlem

ent R

econ

stru

ctio

n Po

st-W

ar, 2

2-24

Jul

y 19

91. Y

oika

lluve

rgity

of-Y

ork,

Ins

titut

e of

Adv

ance

d A

rchi

-q

tect

ural

Stu

dies

, Pos

t-W

ar R

econ

stru

ctio

n an

d D

evel

opm

ent U

nit,

p. 1

4.

Cor

desm

an, A

ntho

ny H

. 199

0.

The

Less

ons

of M

oder

n W

ar.

Bou

lder

: Wes

tvie

w

Pres

s. E

I-B

az, F

arou

k, a

nd R

.M. M

akha

rita

. 19

94.

The

Gul

f War

and

the

Env

ironm

ent.

New

Yor

k: G

ordo

n an

d B

reac

h Sc

ienc

e Pu

blis

hers

. -H

aas,

J. E

ugen

e, R

ober

t W. K

ates

, and

Mar

tyn

J. B

owde

n (e

ds.)

. 197

7.

Rec

on-

stru

ctio

n Fo

llow

ing

Dis

aste

r. C

ambr

idge

, Mas

s.: M

assa

chus

etts

Ins

titut

e of

Tec

h-

nolo

gy P

ress

. H

awle

y, T

.M.

1992

. A

gain

st th

e Fi

res

of H

ell:

The

Env

ironm

enta

l Dis

aste

r of t

he G

ulf

War

. New

Yor

k: H

arco

urt B

race

Jov

anov

ich.

Jo

chni

ck, C

hris

A.F

., an

d R

oger

Nor

man

d. "

A c

ritic

al lo

ok a

t the

law

of w

ar: L

esso

ns

from

the

Pers

ian

Gul

f war

." U

npub

lishe

d pa

per

in ti

le w

ith t

he a

utho

r. A

utho

rs o

f

the

arti

cle

are

Co-

Edi

tor

in C

hief

and

Exe

cuti

ve E

dito

r of

the

Har

vard

Hum

an

Righ

ts J

ourn

al.

Kub

ba, L

aith

. 199

3. "

The

war

's im

pact

on

Iraq

." I

n: F

arha

ng R

ajae

e, e

d.

The

Iran-

Iraq

War

: The

Pol

itics

of A

ggre

ssio

n.

Gai

nesv

ille:

Uni

vers

ity

of F

lori

da P

ress

,

pp. 4

7-54

. M

ofid

, Kam

ran.

199

0. "

Iran

: War

, des

truc

tion

and

rec

onst

ruct

ion.

" In

: Cha

rles

Dav

ies,

ed.

Afte

r the

War

: Ira

n, Ir

aq a

nd th

e A

rab

Gul

f. C

hich

este

r: C

arde

n Pu

b-

licat

ions

, pp.

117

-141

. Pl

an a

nd B

udge

t Org

aniz

atio

n, I

slam

ic R

epub

lic o

f Ira

n. 1

991.

Fi

nal R

epor

t on

the

Asse

ssm

ent of

the

Econ

omic

Dam

ages

of t

he W

ar Im

pose

d by

Iraq

on

the

Isla

mic

R

epub

lic o

f Ira

n (1

980-

1988

). T

eher

an: C

entr

e fo

r So

cio-

Eco

nom

ic D

ocum

enta

-

tion

and

Publ

icat

ions

. Sh

emir

ani,

Tah

eri.

1993

. "T

he w

ar o

f the

citi

es."

In:

Far

hang

Raj

aee,

ed.

The

Iran

-

Iraq

War

: The

Pol

itics

of A

ggre

ssio

n. G

aine

svill

e: U

nive

rsit

y of

Flo

rida

Pre

ss,

pp. 3

2-40

. SI

PRI

(Sto

ckho

lm I

nter

natio

nal P

eace

Res

earc

h In

stitu

te).

1977

. W

eapo

ns o

f Mas

s

Des

truct

ion

and

the

Envi

ronm

ent.

New

Yor

k: C

rane

, Rus

sak,

and

Com

pany

.

1980

. W

arfa

re in

a F

ragi

le W

orld

: Mili

tary

Impa

ct o

n th

e H

uman

Env

iron-

men

t. L

ondo

n: T

aylo

r an

d Fr

anci

s. U

nite

d N

atio

ns S

ecre

tary

-Gen

eral

. 199

1a. "

Rep

ort o

n Ir

an's

rec

onst

ruct

ion

effo

rts

in 't

he w

ake

of t

he c

onfl

ict

betw

een

the

Isla

mic

Rep

ublic

of

Iran

and

Ira

q."

24 D

ecem

ber.

19

91b.

"R

epor

t on

the

scop

e an

d na

ture

of d

amag

e in

flict

ed o

n th

e K

uwai

ti in

fras

truc

ture

dur

ing

the

Iraq

i occ

upat

ion.

" 26

Apr

il.

181

Am

irahm

adi

Wal

ker,

A.R

. 198

9. "

Rec

essi

onal

and

Gul

f War

impa

cts

on p

ort d

evel

opm

ent a

nd

ship

ping

in th

e G

ulf s

tate

s in

the

1980

s." G

eoJo

urna

l 18

(3):

273-

284.

W

inne

feld

, Jam

es A

., an

d M

ary

E. M

orris

. 199

4. W

here

Env

ironm

enta

l Con

cern

s an

d S

ecur

ity S

trate

gies

Mee

t: G

reen

Con

flict

in A

sia

and

the

Mid

dle

Eas

t. Sa

nta

Mon

ica:

Ra

nd.

Zarg

ar, A

kbar

, and

Moh

sen

Poor

. 199

1. "

City

reco

nstru

ctio

n: T

he

case

of K

hora

m-

shar

, Ira

n."

In:

Rev

ivin

g W

ar D

amag

ed S

ettle

men

ts.

A R

epor

t and

Cha

rter

pre

-pa

red

in c

onne

ctio

n w

ith th

e Th

ird In

tern

atio

nal Y

ork

Wor

ksho

p on

Set

tlem

ent

Rec

onst

ruct

ion

Post

-War

, 22-

24 Ju

ly 1

991.

Yor

k: U

nive

rsity

of Y

ork,

Inst

itute

of

Adv

ance

d A

rchi

tect

ural

Stu

dies

, Pos

t-W

ar R

econ

stru

ctio

n an

d D

evel

opm

ent

Uni

t, p.

10.

182