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TheGEWEXCoreProjectReporttoJSC-38
Co-chairsGraemeStephens,SoniaSeneviratnePetervanOevelen,DirectorIGPO
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1. (4)CorePanelhighlight
2. ThenewGASSandlinkingtoWWRP
3. TheGEWEXPROcess EvaluationStudies
4. Plansgoingforward
Outline
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GEWEXCoreefforts
GrandChallenges:ExtremesGCWaterGC
Plus,crossprojectactivitieswithothercoreprojects,e.g.extremes,monsoons,oceanheatcontent/energyimbalance(CLIVAR),L3SMIPWITHCLIC&othersdevelopingwithSPARC,CLIC
Coreeffortsarelargelyprocessesfocused
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1)Datarecords- GuideproductionandanalysisofglobaldatasetswithrespecttoGEWEXquestions,e.g.,energyandwaterbudgetclosure;• Surfacefluxes(Seaflux,Landflux),SurfaceRadiationBudget,clouds(ISCCP),precipitation
(GPCP),watervapor (Gvap),TOAfluxes,soilmoisture,aerosol(GCP,MAC)• Newdatainitiatives• Contributetoevaluationofclimatemodels– obs4mips,PROES2)Insitunetworks–guidance/oversight/developmentofsurfacenetworksthatsupporttheglobalproducts• BSRN,GPCC, Internationalsoilmoisturenetwork3)Dataqualityassessments- assurequalityandknowledgeaboutdatasetsincludingsuitabilityforapplications&improveuncertaintyestimationfordatarecords- InteractwithCEOS/CGMSWGClimate• Cloud,Water Vapor,Aerosol,Precipitation,SoilMoisture,ET4)Dataintegration• Energybalance,waterbalance,
Goals
GEWEXDataAssessmentPanelNewco-chairs(Nov2016)RemyRoca;Tristen L’Ecuyer
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Schroderetal.2016
ExamplehighlightofoneGDAPassessment:Watervapor
Examinationof‘longterm’trendsinglobalcolumnwatervapor
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BSRN– amajorsuccessstoryandonedevelopedtosupportenergybalancestudies
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CommentonEnergybalanceeffortsinGEWEX– alongstandingintegratedGDAPassessmentactivity
2009
2012
2015
Withoutuncertainties,balanceachievedbyentirelyadhoc,indefensibleadjustments
UsesGEWEX(GDAP)basedproductsprimarilywithassociatedbestuncertaintiestorationalizeadjustmentsbutsubjectivitywithinuncertaintyremains
Waterandenergydon’tbalance(O~15Wm-2)-balanceisforcedby‘adjustments’toourbestestimatefluxes.
Allmethodsconstraintoinputthenetenergyimbalance(O~0.5Wm-2).HopefullyimprovedestimatesofthisistobeprovidedbyacrosspaneleffortledbyCLIVAR
ThenewGEWEXassessment– fullyobjectiveusingoptimizationmethodsforadjustments,againbasedonassesseduncertainties- akeypointistheseadjustmentsaffectwaterbalanceestimation
Stephensetal.,2012
Trenberth etal,2009
L’Ecuyer etal,2015;newGDAPco-chair Rodell etal.,2015
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Addressing thewatercyclefromphysicaltohumanandsocioeconomicdimensionsrequiresaregionalperspective
TheRegionalHydroclimate Projects(RHPs)areanessentialtoolinthisendeavour astheybringtogethervariousdisciplinesonwaterissues.
NewBalticEarthProspective:PannexIndevelopment:NorthAmerican
Intense– subdailyprecipitationColdZone:NearzeroprecipitationMounterrain:MountainprecipitationWatermanagementinlargescalemodelsInarch– mountainclimate
GEWEXhydroclimatology Panel,GHPCo-chairs:JasonEvansandJoanCuxart
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Complexity of land-atmosphere Interactions
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GlobalLand/AtmosphereSystemStudy,GLASSCochairs:MichaelEk (NCEP/EMC),GabAbramowitz(UNSW)
Thelandatmosphericcouplingiscomplex,andeventhisviewmissesimportantprocesses(e.g soils,landcoveretc)
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GLASS Structure
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The aim of GLASS is to promote community activities that improve:
1. our best estimates and the model representation of land atmosphere interaction processes
1. our understanding of land/atmosphere feedbacks
1. our understanding of the role of land surface in predictability.
To best achieve these aims, GLASS has been re structured into three elements:
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GABLS/DICE
ILAMB
PLUMBER
LUMIP
LS3MIP
SoilWat
ALMIP2Water Mgmt
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• Initiative born of International Soil Modeling Consortium (ISMC) and GEWEX communities
• Aims to improve interactions and integration of soil and subsurface processes in present climate models
• Planning workshop June 2016 in Leipzig, 25-30 people, 2 days:
New project: GEWEX Soils Initiative (SoilWat)
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• Now drafting perspective paper to clarify needs, objectives, future directions of the SoilWat initiative (Dani Or, Sonia Seneviratne, Peter van Oevelen, and Gerritde Rooij)
• Initiative 1: survey already underway• Initiative 2 (SP-MIP): scoping document distributed• Initiative 3: discussion underway seeking a global groundwater database,
historical and current, with the aim of committing contributing countries/monitoring authorities to submit their data to the database and possibly create a global archive of historical groundwater data.
• Second SoilWat workshop planned in 2017 to report progress and discuss processes not addressed in this workshop (e.g. soil and plant processes, human interactions)
Outcomes
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• GLASS has a leading role in the CMIP6 experiment “Land Surface, Snow, and Soil moisture Model IntercomparisonProject” (LS3MIP) – co-chairs (B. van den Hurk, G. Krinner, H. Kim, S. Seneviratne, C. Derksen, T. Oki) / Collaboration with CliC
• Also a strong role within the Land Use Model IntercomparisonProject (LUMIP) – co-chairs (D. Lawrence, G. Hurtt)
Important step towards better consideration of land processes in climate projections (first-time experiments within CMIP)
GLASS contribution to CMIP6
LS3MIP
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1)QuantifytheroleoflandsurfaceprocessesinS2Sprediction?CouplesdirectlytoWWRPactivities/projectsandtolandmonsoonproject(TBD),YMC&interseasonalvariability,precipitationinitiativeandtheconvectivelypermittinghi-resolutionmodelingeffortalreadydevelopinginGEWEX.ContributestoAA1.,AA3andAA7ofWWRP
2)Advanceourabilitytoestimateandpredictprecipitationbyenhancingourunderstandingandrepresentationofprocesses(aerosol,cloudenvironmentalcouplings)fundamentaltoprecipitation.ActivitiesrelevanthereincludewarmrainPROES,UTCCPROES,GDAPprecipitationassessment,GAP–microphysicalinfluences(includingaerosol)onprecipitation,convectionviaYMC.ContributestoWWRPAA1andAA7,indirectlyAA2
3)Identifythemechanismsforthediurnalcycleofprecipitationoverdifferentregions andhowcanweimprovemodelrepresentationofthediurnalcycle.Precip initiativeandGDAPprecip assessment,Hires(convectivelyresolving/permittingmodeling,contributestoAA1,AA7
4)Assesstheextentthatresolved/permittedconvectionisnecessarytoadvanceourabilitytopredicthighimpactweather.Activitiesinclude:Greyzone project(thesecondphasebeingformulated),hi-resmodeling,YMC,precipitationinitiative
Acommonthreadisthenewstructurewillfocusoncloud,convectionandprecipitationprocessesandtheirrepresentationinmodels
Newco-chairs- Xubin Zeng,UArizona;DanielKlocke,DWR,MPI
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GEWEXPROES- ProcessEvaluationStudies
Thisgrewoutoftheobs4mipmeetingwheredataneedbeconstructed(ondifferenttime/spacescalesthanpannedforESGFandexpectedfromCMIP6)toprobeprocessunderstandingwascompletelymissingfromobs4mipIIplans
FiveGEWEX-relatedPROESactivitiesareindevelopment• UpperTroposphericClouds&Convection(UTCC)(Stubenrauch,
Stephens)withlinktoSPARC– integrateddataproductsdeveloped&beingassessed- green
• Co-leadNicoleSchlegel&EricLaroor,JPL),GEWEX(AORIS)connectstoCLiC – orange
• Radiative KernelsforClimate(leadSoden,UMiami)–orange• Mid-lat storms(leadTselioudis)- orange• Warmrainprocess(leadSuzuki,UTokyo)–green
Blue:indicatesclouds,convectionandprecipitationprocessfocus
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Incoming Solar
185 ± 0.5
E10 ± 2
OLR196 ± 5
DLR228 ± 7
OSR103 ± 6
DSR97 ± 4
ULW257 ± 10
P27 ± 11
Net Import-128
(1.2 PW)
SH7 ± 3
USW50 ± 9
LW emissivity
refreeze
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2
3
ISSM
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10
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25
30
35
40
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Ice f
lux (
Gt/
yr)
December 31st 2012 ice flux (Gt / yr)
Control runLWU - 10 W/m2
1 2 3
IceFluxChangeControl
ΔR=10Wm-2
Schlegeletal.,2017
A10Wm-2changeinradiaion balancechangesmeltrateby10%
IcemassbalancePROESAnewGEWEXdataarchive- AORIS
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UTCCPROEShighlightM
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LNB maxMass (km)
LNB maxMass (km)
LNB CTH (km)
LNB CTH (km)
LNB CBH (km)
LNB CBH (km)
Thick Cirrus Thick Cirrus Thick Cirrus
Thin Cirrus Thin Cirrus Thin Cirrus
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LNB maxMass (km)
LNB maxMass (km)
LNB CTH (km)
LNB CTH (km)
LNB CBH (km)
LNB CBH (km)
Thick Cirrus Thick Cirrus Thick Cirrus
Thin Cirrus Thin Cirrus Thin Cirrus Differentmetricsofconvectiveintensityinferredfromradardiagnostics
Takahashietal.,2017
• Highcloudfeedbacksareimportantfactorsisdeterminingthehydrologicalandclimatesensitivities
• Animportantsourceofhighcloudsisfromconvectivedetrainment
• ThereareNOconstraintsonconvectivedetrainment
Wehavecreatednewdiagnosticanalysisofobservationswithagoaltotestdetrainmentparameterizations
Importantunanticipatedrobustfinding:highthickcloudsdecreasewithconvectiveintensity,highthincloudsincrease
IRobservations
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Lookingforward• GEWEXat30– retrospectiveassessmentofwhatGEWEX
hasachievedover30years
• RevisitingGEWEX20135-10yearscienceandimplementationplan.
• Precipitationinitiative– precip obs assessment,expandprocessdiagnosticstudies,advanceconvectivelypermittingmodeling
• WaterintheTPinitiativewithChina
• Soils,humandimension/watercycle
• GEWEXopenscienceconference,April2017
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PrecipitationObservationAssessment(POA)
WCRP/weatherandclimateextremehttps://www.wcrp-climate.org/gdis-wkshp-2014-climate-extremes
GDAPPrecip.assessment
ETCCDICCl/WCRP/JCOMMExpertTeamonClimateChangeDetectionandIndiceshttps://www.wcrp-climate.org/data-etccdi
GPM:moderateandintenseprecipitating(F,I,D,V),tropicsandextra-tropics
RecentObs./methodsOthergroups
CloudSat:lightrain,snowfall(F,I,V),highlatitude,mountains?
GRACE:waterbalance(V)highlatitude,mountains
IPWGInternationalprecipitationworkinggrouphttp://www.isac.cnr.it/~ipwg/
GPCPGPCC
GASS GDAP
GLASS
GHP
Frequency Intensity Duration Volume
• Scale:space&time
POA
• Gaugecorrection
Otherrelatedtopics
Watervaporconvergence
OneGEWEXinputintotheWCRPcrossPrecipitationInitiative
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GEWEX Open Science ConferenceLake Louise, Banff, AB, Canada
April 29 – May 4, 2018
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GEWEX Open Science Conference”Extremes and Water on the Edge”
• MainThemes:• ExtremesGC• WaterGC• GEWEXCoreScience
• ECSEvents• SpringSessions• IntegralPartofConference
• Participationlimitedto450
Venue: Chateau Lake LouiseBanff, AB, Canada
Wide range of sponsors
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Lookingforward
OSC
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Backups
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Mission
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Tomeasureandpredictglobalandregionalenergyandwatervariations,trends,andextremes(suchasheatwaves,floodsanddroughts),throughimprovedobservationsandmodelingofland,atmosphereandtheirinteractions;therebyprovidingthescientificunderpinningsofclimateservices.
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