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TheGEWEXCoreProjectReporttoJSC-38

Co-chairsGraemeStephens,SoniaSeneviratnePetervanOevelen,DirectorIGPO

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1. (4)CorePanelhighlight

2. ThenewGASSandlinkingtoWWRP

3. TheGEWEXPROcess EvaluationStudies

4. Plansgoingforward

Outline

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GEWEXCoreefforts

GrandChallenges:ExtremesGCWaterGC

Plus,crossprojectactivitieswithothercoreprojects,e.g.extremes,monsoons,oceanheatcontent/energyimbalance(CLIVAR),L3SMIPWITHCLIC&othersdevelopingwithSPARC,CLIC

Coreeffortsarelargelyprocessesfocused

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1)Datarecords- GuideproductionandanalysisofglobaldatasetswithrespecttoGEWEXquestions,e.g.,energyandwaterbudgetclosure;• Surfacefluxes(Seaflux,Landflux),SurfaceRadiationBudget,clouds(ISCCP),precipitation

(GPCP),watervapor (Gvap),TOAfluxes,soilmoisture,aerosol(GCP,MAC)• Newdatainitiatives• Contributetoevaluationofclimatemodels– obs4mips,PROES2)Insitunetworks–guidance/oversight/developmentofsurfacenetworksthatsupporttheglobalproducts• BSRN,GPCC, Internationalsoilmoisturenetwork3)Dataqualityassessments- assurequalityandknowledgeaboutdatasetsincludingsuitabilityforapplications&improveuncertaintyestimationfordatarecords- InteractwithCEOS/CGMSWGClimate• Cloud,Water Vapor,Aerosol,Precipitation,SoilMoisture,ET4)Dataintegration• Energybalance,waterbalance,

Goals

GEWEXDataAssessmentPanelNewco-chairs(Nov2016)RemyRoca;Tristen L’Ecuyer

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Schroderetal.2016

ExamplehighlightofoneGDAPassessment:Watervapor

Examinationof‘longterm’trendsinglobalcolumnwatervapor

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BSRN– amajorsuccessstoryandonedevelopedtosupportenergybalancestudies

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CommentonEnergybalanceeffortsinGEWEX– alongstandingintegratedGDAPassessmentactivity

2009

2012

2015

Withoutuncertainties,balanceachievedbyentirelyadhoc,indefensibleadjustments

UsesGEWEX(GDAP)basedproductsprimarilywithassociatedbestuncertaintiestorationalizeadjustmentsbutsubjectivitywithinuncertaintyremains

Waterandenergydon’tbalance(O~15Wm-2)-balanceisforcedby‘adjustments’toourbestestimatefluxes.

Allmethodsconstraintoinputthenetenergyimbalance(O~0.5Wm-2).HopefullyimprovedestimatesofthisistobeprovidedbyacrosspaneleffortledbyCLIVAR

ThenewGEWEXassessment– fullyobjectiveusingoptimizationmethodsforadjustments,againbasedonassesseduncertainties- akeypointistheseadjustmentsaffectwaterbalanceestimation

Stephensetal.,2012

Trenberth etal,2009

L’Ecuyer etal,2015;newGDAPco-chair Rodell etal.,2015

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Addressing thewatercyclefromphysicaltohumanandsocioeconomicdimensionsrequiresaregionalperspective

TheRegionalHydroclimate Projects(RHPs)areanessentialtoolinthisendeavour astheybringtogethervariousdisciplinesonwaterissues.

NewBalticEarthProspective:PannexIndevelopment:NorthAmerican

Intense– subdailyprecipitationColdZone:NearzeroprecipitationMounterrain:MountainprecipitationWatermanagementinlargescalemodelsInarch– mountainclimate

GEWEXhydroclimatology Panel,GHPCo-chairs:JasonEvansandJoanCuxart

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Complexity of land-atmosphere Interactions

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GlobalLand/AtmosphereSystemStudy,GLASSCochairs:MichaelEk (NCEP/EMC),GabAbramowitz(UNSW)

Thelandatmosphericcouplingiscomplex,andeventhisviewmissesimportantprocesses(e.g soils,landcoveretc)

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GLASS Structure

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The aim of GLASS is to promote community activities that improve:

1. our best estimates and the model representation of land atmosphere interaction processes

1. our understanding of land/atmosphere feedbacks

1. our understanding of the role of land surface in predictability.

To best achieve these aims, GLASS has been re structured into three elements:

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GABLS/DICE

ILAMB

PLUMBER

LUMIP

LS3MIP

SoilWat

ALMIP2Water Mgmt

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• Initiative born of International Soil Modeling Consortium (ISMC) and GEWEX communities

• Aims to improve interactions and integration of soil and subsurface processes in present climate models

• Planning workshop June 2016 in Leipzig, 25-30 people, 2 days:

New project: GEWEX Soils Initiative (SoilWat)

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• Now drafting perspective paper to clarify needs, objectives, future directions of the SoilWat initiative (Dani Or, Sonia Seneviratne, Peter van Oevelen, and Gerritde Rooij)

• Initiative 1: survey already underway• Initiative 2 (SP-MIP): scoping document distributed• Initiative 3: discussion underway seeking a global groundwater database,

historical and current, with the aim of committing contributing countries/monitoring authorities to submit their data to the database and possibly create a global archive of historical groundwater data.

• Second SoilWat workshop planned in 2017 to report progress and discuss processes not addressed in this workshop (e.g. soil and plant processes, human interactions)

Outcomes

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• GLASS has a leading role in the CMIP6 experiment “Land Surface, Snow, and Soil moisture Model IntercomparisonProject” (LS3MIP) – co-chairs (B. van den Hurk, G. Krinner, H. Kim, S. Seneviratne, C. Derksen, T. Oki) / Collaboration with CliC

• Also a strong role within the Land Use Model IntercomparisonProject (LUMIP) – co-chairs (D. Lawrence, G. Hurtt)

Important step towards better consideration of land processes in climate projections (first-time experiments within CMIP)

GLASS contribution to CMIP6

LS3MIP

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1)QuantifytheroleoflandsurfaceprocessesinS2Sprediction?CouplesdirectlytoWWRPactivities/projectsandtolandmonsoonproject(TBD),YMC&interseasonalvariability,precipitationinitiativeandtheconvectivelypermittinghi-resolutionmodelingeffortalreadydevelopinginGEWEX.ContributestoAA1.,AA3andAA7ofWWRP

2)Advanceourabilitytoestimateandpredictprecipitationbyenhancingourunderstandingandrepresentationofprocesses(aerosol,cloudenvironmentalcouplings)fundamentaltoprecipitation.ActivitiesrelevanthereincludewarmrainPROES,UTCCPROES,GDAPprecipitationassessment,GAP–microphysicalinfluences(includingaerosol)onprecipitation,convectionviaYMC.ContributestoWWRPAA1andAA7,indirectlyAA2

3)Identifythemechanismsforthediurnalcycleofprecipitationoverdifferentregions andhowcanweimprovemodelrepresentationofthediurnalcycle.Precip initiativeandGDAPprecip assessment,Hires(convectivelyresolving/permittingmodeling,contributestoAA1,AA7

4)Assesstheextentthatresolved/permittedconvectionisnecessarytoadvanceourabilitytopredicthighimpactweather.Activitiesinclude:Greyzone project(thesecondphasebeingformulated),hi-resmodeling,YMC,precipitationinitiative

Acommonthreadisthenewstructurewillfocusoncloud,convectionandprecipitationprocessesandtheirrepresentationinmodels

Newco-chairs- Xubin Zeng,UArizona;DanielKlocke,DWR,MPI

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GEWEXPROES- ProcessEvaluationStudies

Thisgrewoutoftheobs4mipmeetingwheredataneedbeconstructed(ondifferenttime/spacescalesthanpannedforESGFandexpectedfromCMIP6)toprobeprocessunderstandingwascompletelymissingfromobs4mipIIplans

FiveGEWEX-relatedPROESactivitiesareindevelopment• UpperTroposphericClouds&Convection(UTCC)(Stubenrauch,

Stephens)withlinktoSPARC– integrateddataproductsdeveloped&beingassessed- green

• Co-leadNicoleSchlegel&EricLaroor,JPL),GEWEX(AORIS)connectstoCLiC – orange

• Radiative KernelsforClimate(leadSoden,UMiami)–orange• Mid-lat storms(leadTselioudis)- orange• Warmrainprocess(leadSuzuki,UTokyo)–green

Blue:indicatesclouds,convectionandprecipitationprocessfocus

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Incoming Solar

185 ± 0.5

E10 ± 2

OLR196 ± 5

DLR228 ± 7

OSR103 ± 6

DSR97 ± 4

ULW257 ± 10

P27 ± 11

Net Import-128

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SH7 ± 3

USW50 ± 9

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December 31st 2012 ice flux (Gt / yr)

Control runLWU - 10 W/m2

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IceFluxChangeControl

ΔR=10Wm-2

Schlegeletal.,2017

A10Wm-2changeinradiaion balancechangesmeltrateby10%

IcemassbalancePROESAnewGEWEXdataarchive- AORIS

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UTCCPROEShighlightM

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Thick Cirrus Thick Cirrus Thick Cirrus

Thin Cirrus Thin Cirrus Thin Cirrus Differentmetricsofconvectiveintensityinferredfromradardiagnostics

Takahashietal.,2017

• Highcloudfeedbacksareimportantfactorsisdeterminingthehydrologicalandclimatesensitivities

• Animportantsourceofhighcloudsisfromconvectivedetrainment

• ThereareNOconstraintsonconvectivedetrainment

Wehavecreatednewdiagnosticanalysisofobservationswithagoaltotestdetrainmentparameterizations

Importantunanticipatedrobustfinding:highthickcloudsdecreasewithconvectiveintensity,highthincloudsincrease

IRobservations

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Lookingforward• GEWEXat30– retrospectiveassessmentofwhatGEWEX

hasachievedover30years

• RevisitingGEWEX20135-10yearscienceandimplementationplan.

• Precipitationinitiative– precip obs assessment,expandprocessdiagnosticstudies,advanceconvectivelypermittingmodeling

• WaterintheTPinitiativewithChina

• Soils,humandimension/watercycle

• GEWEXopenscienceconference,April2017

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PrecipitationObservationAssessment(POA)

WCRP/weatherandclimateextremehttps://www.wcrp-climate.org/gdis-wkshp-2014-climate-extremes

GDAPPrecip.assessment

ETCCDICCl/WCRP/JCOMMExpertTeamonClimateChangeDetectionandIndiceshttps://www.wcrp-climate.org/data-etccdi

GPM:moderateandintenseprecipitating(F,I,D,V),tropicsandextra-tropics

RecentObs./methodsOthergroups

CloudSat:lightrain,snowfall(F,I,V),highlatitude,mountains?

GRACE:waterbalance(V)highlatitude,mountains

IPWGInternationalprecipitationworkinggrouphttp://www.isac.cnr.it/~ipwg/

GPCPGPCC

GASS GDAP

GLASS

GHP

Frequency Intensity Duration Volume

• Scale:space&time

POA

• Gaugecorrection

Otherrelatedtopics

Watervaporconvergence

OneGEWEXinputintotheWCRPcrossPrecipitationInitiative

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GEWEX Open Science ConferenceLake Louise, Banff, AB, Canada

April 29 – May 4, 2018

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GEWEX Open Science Conference”Extremes and Water on the Edge”

• MainThemes:• ExtremesGC• WaterGC• GEWEXCoreScience

• ECSEvents• SpringSessions• IntegralPartofConference

• Participationlimitedto450

Venue: Chateau Lake LouiseBanff, AB, Canada

Wide range of sponsors

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Lookingforward

OSC

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Backups

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Mission

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Tomeasureandpredictglobalandregionalenergyandwatervariations,trends,andextremes(suchasheatwaves,floodsanddroughts),throughimprovedobservationsandmodelingofland,atmosphereandtheirinteractions;therebyprovidingthescientificunderpinningsofclimateservices.