SOCIAL MEDIA CONTINUES ITS METEORIC RISE
248 MM UNIQUE MONTHLY
VISITORS TO TOP 8 SNS SITES
61% INTERNET USERS
WITH AN SNS PROFILE
23% ALL INTERNET TIME
SPENT ON SNS
41% YAG
48% YAG
50% YAG
Source: Nielsen NetView - June 2009-June 2010
CONSUMER DECISION MAKING IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY SOCIAL
I LIKE IT
“Do I look good? I really love this dress. I don’t think pictures do it
justice.”
84 %
LIKE IT
I HATE IT
Photo Credit: Kris Krüg
TRUST IN THE PEOPLE WE KNOW HAS ERODED
CREDIBILITY OF INFORMATION SOURCES ABOUT COMPANIES
TV NEWS
RADIO NEWS
NEWSPAPERS
FRIENDS/PEERS
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
2008 2010
Source: Edelman Trust Barometer, 2010
60% OF PEOPLE REPORT NEEDING TO HEAR SOMETHING ABOUT A SPECIFIC COMPANY 3-5X TO BELIEVE IT IS TRUE
AND WE REQUIRE MORE PROOF
Source: Edelman Trust Barometer, 2010
TRUST AND SOCIAL MEDIA OPINIONS ONLINE
MORE OPINIONS AND TRUST LESS
MORE OPINIONS AND TRUST MORE 40%
18%
UNSURE ABOUT THE NUMBER OF OPINIONS BUT IT’S GETTING HARDER TO TELL
41%
Source: Sapient Global Trust Survey March 2011
THREE POSSIBILITIES
ROCK THE VOTE! TWEET 1, 2 OR 3 TO #quest4trust NOW
1 NOT A PROBLEM: • TRUST IS NOT AS IMPORTANT AS IT USED TO BE
2 MAYBE A PROBLEM
3 YES, IT’S A PROBLEM: • TRUST HAS ERODED - QUESTION IS WHY & WHAT TO
DO
• IT’S TOO EARLY TO TELL
THE AUDIENCE HAS SPOKEN!
SOURCE: COMPILATION OF AUDIENCE VOTES VIA LIVE TWEETS DURING THE PRESENTATION
1 NOT A PROBLEM: • TRUST IS NOT AS IMPORTANT AS IT USED TO BE
2 MAYBE A PROBLEM
3 YES, IT’S A PROBLEM: • TRUST HAS ERODED - QUESTION IS WHY & WHAT TO
DO
• IT’S TOO EARLY TO TELL
6%
38%
56%
RISK SHAPES TRUST
SELF-ACTUALIZATION: achieving one’s full potential including creative activities
ESTEEM NEEDS: prestige and feeling of accomplishment
BELONGINGNESS AND LOVE NEEDS: intimate relationships, friends
SAFETY NEEDS: security, safety
PHYSIOLOGICAL NEEDS: food, water, warmth, rest
SELF-FULFILLMENT NEEDS
PSYCHOLOGICAL NEEDS
BASIC NEEDS
Source: A Theory of Human Motivation, 1943 - A. Maslow
TRUST IS AN AGGREGATE
COMPANY CONSUMER
EXPECTATIONS
PRODUCT PLACE SERVICE PRICE PROMOTION
CONNECTION BRAND
PR ADVERTISING FRIENDS SOCIAL MEDIA
EMOTIONAL RATIONAL
PSYCHOLOGICAL PHYSICAL
REPUTATION BELIEFS
ASSOCIATIONS
EXPERIENCE
SHOPPING CONSUMPTION
HOW TRUST WORKS
OWNERSHIP / EXPERIENCE EXPECTATION
TRUST
PUT IN $$$
PHYSICAL PSYCHIC
GET OUT RATIONAL
EMOTIONAL
AN ECONOMIC GALE OF DARWINIAN PROPORTIONS
ECONOMIC RISK EVER-PRESENT DESPITE BEST EFFORTS TO MANAGE IT. STANDING ON GUARD.
ERA OF READINESS
RISK THOUGHT TO BE MANAGEABLE WITH HIGH-TECH MACRO-ECONOMIC TOOLS. INDULGING RISK
ERA OF INDULGENCE
RISK ABRUPTLY RETURNS UNEXPECTEDLY CREATING UNCERTAINTY, REASSESSING EXTERNALITIES
ERA OF CONSEQUENCES
WW II ENDS
MID 1980s 2008
Source: A Darwinian Gale - The Futures Group 2010
“The new consumer psychology on the rise around the world is one of networks and
prioritization, of explicitly pricing in consequences and of giving more than lip service to being
resourceful and and vigilant to downside risks This is the global zeitgeist now aborning.”
WELCOME TO THE ERA OF CONSEQUENCES
Source: A Darwinian Gale - The Futures Group 2010
OTHER MACRO FORCES ADD TO THE ‘CONSEQUENCE’
UNDERCURRENT
• ECOLI IN FOOD SUPPLY • TOXIC DOG FOOD • LED PAINT IN TOYS • OBESITY
CONSUMPTION
• LAID OFF OR WORK SCALED BACK • HOMES WORTH LESS THAN DEBT • RETIREMENT FUNDS DECIMATED
ECONOMIC
• SEVERE WEATHER AND DAMAGE • BIRD FLU, SWINE FLU • GLOBAL WARMING • 9/11
ENVIRONMENT
• MORTGAGE COLLAPSE • INVESTMENT MELTDOWN • AUTO INDUSTRY BAILOUTS
INSTITUTIONS
EFFECTS ON CONSUMER BEHAVIOR
The decision calculus of consumer choice will be different. The process of arriving at decisions will be different, even when the outcomes are the same. Consumers are redefining what value means to them.
Source: A Darwinian Gale - The Futures Group 2010
HAS EVOLVED THE VALUE PROPOSITION
INGREDIENTS PROCESSING FOOTPRINT
HOW IT’S MADE
BENEFITS COSTS VALUE = VS.
GET OUT
TRUST
TAKEN AWAY
PUT IN
SKEWED CONTRIBUTIONS
NEGATIVE POSITIVE
NEUTRAL
MO
TIVA
TIO
N /
VO
LUM
E O
F C
OM
ME
NTS
SENTIMENT CHARACTER
OPAQUE INTEGRITY
NEGATIVE POSITIVE
SENTIMENT CHARACTER
NEUTRAL
MO
TIVA
TIO
N /
VO
LUM
E O
F C
OM
ME
NTS
TRUST IN SOCIAL MEDIA OPINIONS: MANY DRIVERS, CONTEXT SPECIFIC
AGGREGATE CONSENSUS
SOURCE FAMILIARITY
EXPERTISE INDEPENDENCE
OPINION ORIGIN
Source: Sapient Global Trust Survey March 2011
AGGREGATE CONSENSUS
SOURCE FAMILIARITY
EXPERTISE INDEPENDENCE
OPINION ORIGIN
SOMEONE YOU KNOW?
SOMEONE YOU
DON’T KNOW
VS
TRUST IN SOCIAL MEDIA OPINIONS: MANY DRIVERS, CONTEXT SPECIFIC
Source: Sapient Global Trust Survey March 2011
AGGREGATE CONSENSUS
SOURCE FAMILIARITY
EXPERTISE INDEPENDENCE
OPINION ORIGIN
SOMEONE YOU KNOW?
SOMEONE YOU
DON’T KNOW
VS
TRUST IN SOCIAL MEDIA OPINIONS: MANY DRIVERS, CONTEXT SPECIFIC
EXPERIENCE?
WHAT SOMEONE HAS SEEN OR
HEARD?
VS
Source: Sapient Global Trust Survey March 2011
WHICH RECOMMENDATION DO YOU TRUST MOST WHEN CHOOSING A
HOTEL IN A NEW CITY?
71 % CLOSEST FRIENDS OR FAMILY BASED ON WHAT THEY’VE HEARD
29 % A HIGH SCHOOL FRIEND ON FACEBOOK YOU HAVEN’T SEEN IN A WHILE, WHO’S STAYED THERE
Source: Sapient Global Trust Survey March 2011
SALIENCE IS SHAPED BY A CONTEXT THAT’S UNCLEAR
FAMILIARITY
UN
DE
RS
TAN
DIN
G EXPERT/
AUTHORITY
PEOPLE WHO UNDERSTAND
ME
PEOPLE I LIKE
WHAT LOTS OF PEOPLE
LIKE
PEOPLE LIKE ME
41 % IT’S GETTING HARDER TO TELL WHICH OPINIONS ARE RELIABLE AND WHICH ONES AREN’T.
Source: Sapient Global Trust Survey March 2011
CUMULATIVE EFFECT?
TRUST OR MISTRUST…
WHY NOT AFFINITY / LACK
THEREOF?
RESONANCE / DEAFNESS?
LOVE / HATE / INDIFFERENCE?
TRUST IS THE PRIME
• BEHAVIOR VS WORDS • DISINTERMEDIATION VS
INTERMEDIATION • USERS VS SPECULATORS
• OVER TIME VS POINT
SPEND LESS ON SUPERBOWL ADS
MORE ON SUPERBAD SUPPORT AND
• ONLINE REVIEWS AND BRAND FEEDBACK FIXED IN TIME
‘YOU RECENTLY PURCHASED / USED /
VISITED’
• FEEDBACK HAS TO BE DIRECTLY SOLICITED AND INCENTED OVER LIFETIME OF
RELATIONSHIP
‘HOW DO YOU FEEL NOW?’
OWNERSHIP / EXPERIENCE BASED SATISFACTION
People are finding social media opinion less reliable Trust depends on a interrelationship of contextual factors which determine content’s value Marketers have an opportunity to forge a true one-to-one connection to build lasting value and earn trust
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