Southeast Michigan Council of Governments
SEMCOG 2040
Regional Forecast
SEMCOG General AssemblyMarch 22, 2012
Michigan Is Leading the RecoveryEmployment Change, 3rd Quarters, 2009-2011
Data Source: Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics, UM. Wage and salary employment only.
Michigan U.S. Michigan U.S.0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
2.5%
1.0%
4.2%
1.0%
Total Employment High-wage Industries(Average > 57,000 in 2010$)
Em
plo
ymen
t P
erce
nt
Ch
ange
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2032
2034
2036
2038
2040
2000000
2200000
2400000
2600000
2800000
3000000
3200000
3400000
3600000
4,100,000.0
4,200,000.0
4,300,000.0
4,400,000.0
4,500,000.0
4,600,000.0
4,700,000.0
4,800,000.0
4,900,000.0
Empl
oym
ent (
Mill
ions
)
Employment and Population Southeast Michigan, 1990-2040
Source: SEMCOG 2040 Forecast
Employment
Population
2,786,082
4,742,083
2010 20401990
-60,000
-50,000
-40,000
-30,000
-20,000
-10,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
Natural Change Net Domestic MigrationNet International Migration Total Change Source: SEMCOG 2040 Forecast
Change of Population ComponentsAnnual Average, Southeast Michigan
2010-2020 2020-20402000-2010
=+
-
1990-2000
=
+
- =
+
-=+
-
1-4
5-17
18-1
9
20-2
4
25-2
9
30-3
4
35-3
9
40-4
4
45-4
9
50-5
4
55-5
9
60-6
4
65-6
9
70-7
4
75+
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
Michigan Has Less In-Migration2010
Dom
esti
c M
igra
tion
Rat
es U.S. Inter-State Migration Rates
Into Michigan
Source: State Demographer's Analysis of 2010 ACS Data
Out Migration from Michigan
Age
A More Diverse Region Southeast Michigan, 2010 and 2040
68%
22%
6%4%
60%
21%
11%
8%
HispanicWhite Black Asian, Multi-racial,AIAN, and Other
Source: Census 2010, SEMCOG 2040 Forecast
2010 2040
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85+
-150,000 -100,000 -50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000
Significant Aging Population Southeast Michigan, 2010 and 2040
Source: SEMCOG 2040 Forecast
Increase
Decrease
Knowledge-based, export-oriented services
We Must Grow Jobs in Knowledge-Based and Export-Oriented Industries
Jobs by Major Sector, SE Michigan, 1990-2040
Manufacturing
Government
Retail
Health/Social
services
Source: SEMCOG 2040 Forecast
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
2010 20401990
Total Employment, Baseline,Higher and Lower Alternatives
Southeast Michigan, 1990-2040
Source: SEMCOG 2040 Forecast
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
20
20
21
20
22
20
23
20
24
20
25
20
26
20
27
20
28
20
29
20
30
20
31
20
32
20
33
20
34
20
35
20
36
20
37
20
38
20
39
20
40
2,000,000.00
2,100,000.00
2,200,000.00
2,300,000.00
2,400,000.00
2,500,000.00
2,600,000.00
2,700,000.00
2,800,000.00
2,900,000.00
3,000,000.00
3,100,000.00
2,675,296
2,786,082
2,940,935
20102,484,251
20002,835,170
19902,478,460
2010 20401990
Regional Forecast Summary
• The region is recovering from a decade-long deep recession.
• The recovery will be longer and slower than in the past.
• Growth will be modest, from 2010 to 2040:–Employment up 12% (302,000)–Population up 1% (37,000)–Households up 6% (110,000)
Regional Forecast SummaryCont’d
• An aging population and lack of in-migration will– limit labor force in the long run, and– reconfigure services
• Diversifying economy should continue by–developing knowledge-based and
export-oriented industries–maintaining a strong presence in our key
auto industry
SEMCOG 2040 Community Forecast
More than 3,000 loss
Loss, 501 to 3,000
Little change, 500 loss to 500 gain
Gain, 501 to 3,000
More than 3,000 gain
Source: Census , SEMCOG 2040 Forecast
Livingston
Oakland
Washtenaw
St. Clair
Macomb
Monroe
Wayne
Livingston
Oakland
Washtenaw
St. Clair
Macomb
Monroe
Wayne
2000-2010
2010-2020
Short-term Population Change Change in Population, 2000-2020
More than 3,000 loss
Loss, 501 to 3,000
Little change, 500 loss to 500 gain
Gain, 501 to 3,000
More than 3,000 gain
Livingston
Oakland
Washtenaw
St. Clair
Macomb
Monroe
Wayne
Long-term Population Change Change in Population, 2010-2040
Source: Census , SEMCOG 2040 Forecast
Less than 10%
10% to 14.9%
15% to 19.9%
20% to 24.9%
25% to 29.9%
30% or more
2010 2040
Senior Population Change Percent of Population Age 65+, 2010 and 2040
Source: SEMCOG 2040 Forecast
Continued Household Growth Change in Households, 2010-2040
More than 100 Loss
Little Change, -100 to 300
Gain, 301 to 1,000
Large Gain, 1,000 to 3,000
More than 3,000 Gain
SANILAC
LUCAS (Michigan/Ohio State Line)
LEN
AW
EE
LENAWEE
JAC
KS
ON
LAPEER
OA
KL
AN
D
MACOMB
MARINECITY
WIXOM
SOUTHFIELD
BIRMINGHAM
NOVI
WOODHAVEN
INKSTER
PARKALLEN
DEARBORN
GROSSEPOINTE
LUNAPIER
GROSSE POINTE
Beach
Holly
Franklin HillsBinghamFarms
Lake
SHORESGROSSE POINTE
WALES
FORT GRATIOT
COTTRELLVILLE
BLOOMFIELD
LIVINGSTON
LIVINGSTON
WASHTENAW
MONROE
MONROE
WAYNE
ST.
CL
AIR
ST. CLAIR
MO
NR
OE
WASHTENAW
WA
SH
TE
NA
WL
IVIN
GS
TO
N
OA
KLA
ND
LIV
ING
ST
ON
OAKLANDMACOMB
ST. CLAIR
MA
CO
MB
ST.
CL
AIR
WA
SH
TE
NA
W
WA
YN
E
SouthRockwood
Armada
Manchester
Maybee
New Haven
Milford
BERLIN
MUSSEY
LYNN
ADDISON
ST. CLAIR
LENOX CASCO
RAYWASHINGTONOAKLAND
SHELBY
CLAY
GREENWOODBURTCHVILLE
BROCKWAY
BRUCE
KENOCKEE
ARMADARICHMOND
COLUMBUS
EAST CHINA
CHESTERFIELD
CHINA
OXFORD
ORION
HARRISON
HOLLY GROVELAND BRANDON
WEST BLOOMFIELD
COMMERCE
LYON
INDEPENDENCESPRINGFIELDROSE
TYRONE
HARTLAND HIGHLANDWATERFORD
BRIGHTON MILFORD
GREEN OAK
WHITE LAKE
DEERFIELDCONWAY COHOCTAH
HOWELL OCEOLA
GENOA
HAMBURGUNADILLA PUTNAM
LYNDON DEXTER WEBSTER NORTHFIELD
SYLVAN LIMA SCIO
SHARON LODIFREEDOM YPSILANTI
MANCHESTERBRIDGEWATER SALINE AUGUSTA
SALEM
SUPERIOR
PITTSFIELD
SUMPTER
CANTON
HURON
BROWNSTOWN
GROSSE ILE
BROWNSTOWN
ASH
VAN BUREN
PLYMOUTH
NORTHVILLE
MONROE
LONDON EXETER
ERIEBEDFORDWHITEFORD
SUMMERFIELD
LASALLE
FRENCHTOWN
FRENCHTOWN
IDA
RAISINVILLE
BERLIN
GRANT
KIMBALL
ING
HA
M
SHIAWASSEE
GENESEE
GENESEE
OAKLAND
WAYNE
MA
CO
MB
LA
PE
ER
Orion
TAYLOR
AUBURN HILLS
ST. CLAIR
TROY
UTICA
PORTHURON
ALGONAC
MARYSVILLE
EASTPOINTE
ST. CLAIR SHORES
ROSEVILLE
WARREN
MADISONHEIGHTS
CENTER LINE
ROCHESTER HILLS
STERLING HEIGHTS
CLAWSON
PARKOAK
FERNDALE
PLEASANT RIDGE
HILLS
PONTIAC
BERKLEY
ROYALOAK
HUNTINGTONWOODS
HAZELPARK
VILLAGELATHRUP
FARMINGTON
FARMINGTON HILLS
LIVONIA
HIGHLAND PARK
HAMTRAMCK
FARMS
GROSSE
PARKPOINTE
DETROIT
DEARBORNHEIGHTS
RIVER ROUGE
ECORSE
SOUTHGATEWYANDOTTE
FLAT ROCK
WAYNE
ROMULUS
HARPERWOODS
GROSSE POINTEWOODS
WESTLAND
LINCOLNPARK
GARDENCITY
MELVINDALE
RIVERVIEW
TRENTON
ROCKWOOD
Leonard
Pinckney
Wolverine
Oxford
Romeo
Fowlerville
Barton
Ortonville
Capac
Estral
Dexter
Lake
CHELSEA
Beverly
Emmett
Hills
Carleton
Dundee
REDFORD
PORT HURON
YPSILANTI
WALLED LAKE
YALE
ROCHESTER
BLOOMFIELD
SALINE
HOWELL
NORTHVILLE
SOUTH LYON
LAKE VILLAGEORCHARD
ANGELUSLAKE
SYLVAN LAKE
KEEGO HARBOR
MEMPHIS
FRASER
MONROE
GIBRALTAR
PLYMOUTH
MILAN
NEW BALTIMORE
RICHMOND
BELLEVILLE
CLARKSTON
BRIGHTON
MOUNTCLEMENS
BROWNSTOWN
PETERSBURG
DUNDEE
ANN ARBOR
ANN ARBOR
ROYAL OAK
HANDY
IOSCO MARION
YORK
MILAN
RILEY
IRA
MACOMB
CLINTON
EMMETTCLYDE
More than 100 loss
Little Change, -100 to 100Gain, 100 to 1,000
Large Gain, 1,000 to 3,000More than 3,000 gainConfidential
Job Gains Most Everywhere Change in Employment, 2010-2040
Source: SEMCOG 2040 Forecast
More than 50 loss
Little Change, -50 to 50Gain, 51 to 500
Large Gain, 501 to 3,000More than 3,000 gainConfidential
Source: SEMCOG 2040 Forecast
Gain in Knowledge-Based Services Jobs Change in Sector Employment, 2010-2040
Little Change -10 to 50Small Gain, 51 to 500Moderate Gain, 501 to 2,000Large Gain, 2,001 to 4,000More than 4,000 gainConfidential
Source: SEMCOG 2040 Forecast
Gain in Private Education & Health Care Change in Sector Employment, 2010-2040
Southeast Michigan Council of Governments
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