Southeast Michigan Council of Governments

SEMCOG 2040

Regional Forecast

SEMCOG General AssemblyMarch 22, 2012

Michigan Is Leading the RecoveryEmployment Change, 3rd Quarters, 2009-2011

Data Source: Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics, UM. Wage and salary employment only.

Michigan U.S. Michigan U.S.0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

2.5%

1.0%

4.2%

1.0%

Total Employment High-wage Industries(Average > 57,000 in 2010$)

Em

plo

ymen

t P

erce

nt

Ch

ange

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024

2026

2028

2030

2032

2034

2036

2038

2040

2000000

2200000

2400000

2600000

2800000

3000000

3200000

3400000

3600000

4,100,000.0

4,200,000.0

4,300,000.0

4,400,000.0

4,500,000.0

4,600,000.0

4,700,000.0

4,800,000.0

4,900,000.0

Empl

oym

ent (

Mill

ions

)

Employment and Population Southeast Michigan, 1990-2040

Source: SEMCOG 2040 Forecast

Employment

Population

2,786,082

4,742,083

2010 20401990

-60,000

-50,000

-40,000

-30,000

-20,000

-10,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

Natural Change Net Domestic MigrationNet International Migration Total Change Source: SEMCOG 2040 Forecast

Change of Population ComponentsAnnual Average, Southeast Michigan

2010-2020 2020-20402000-2010

=+

-

1990-2000

=

+

- =

+

-=+

-

1-4

5-17

18-1

9

20-2

4

25-2

9

30-3

4

35-3

9

40-4

4

45-4

9

50-5

4

55-5

9

60-6

4

65-6

9

70-7

4

75+

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

Michigan Has Less In-Migration2010

Dom

esti

c M

igra

tion

Rat

es U.S. Inter-State Migration Rates

Into Michigan

Source: State Demographer's Analysis of 2010 ACS Data

Out Migration from Michigan

Age

A More Diverse Region Southeast Michigan, 2010 and 2040

68%

22%

6%4%

60%

21%

11%

8%

HispanicWhite Black Asian, Multi-racial,AIAN, and Other

Source: Census 2010, SEMCOG 2040 Forecast

2010 2040

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85+

-150,000 -100,000 -50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000

Significant Aging Population Southeast Michigan, 2010 and 2040

Source: SEMCOG 2040 Forecast

Increase

Decrease

Knowledge-based, export-oriented services

We Must Grow Jobs in Knowledge-Based and Export-Oriented Industries

Jobs by Major Sector, SE Michigan, 1990-2040

Manufacturing

Government

Retail

Health/Social

services

Source: SEMCOG 2040 Forecast

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

2040

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

2010 20401990

Total Employment, Baseline,Higher and Lower Alternatives

Southeast Michigan, 1990-2040

Source: SEMCOG 2040 Forecast

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

20

19

20

20

20

21

20

22

20

23

20

24

20

25

20

26

20

27

20

28

20

29

20

30

20

31

20

32

20

33

20

34

20

35

20

36

20

37

20

38

20

39

20

40

2,000,000.00

2,100,000.00

2,200,000.00

2,300,000.00

2,400,000.00

2,500,000.00

2,600,000.00

2,700,000.00

2,800,000.00

2,900,000.00

3,000,000.00

3,100,000.00

2,675,296

2,786,082

2,940,935

20102,484,251

20002,835,170

19902,478,460

2010 20401990

Regional Forecast Summary

• The region is recovering from a decade-long deep recession.

• The recovery will be longer and slower than in the past.

• Growth will be modest, from 2010 to 2040:–Employment up 12% (302,000)–Population up 1% (37,000)–Households up 6% (110,000)

Regional Forecast SummaryCont’d

• An aging population and lack of in-migration will– limit labor force in the long run, and– reconfigure services

• Diversifying economy should continue by–developing knowledge-based and

export-oriented industries–maintaining a strong presence in our key

auto industry

SEMCOG 2040 Community Forecast

More than 3,000 loss

Loss, 501 to 3,000

Little change, 500 loss to 500 gain

Gain, 501 to 3,000

More than 3,000 gain

Source: Census , SEMCOG 2040 Forecast

Livingston

Oakland

Washtenaw

St. Clair

Macomb

Monroe

Wayne

Livingston

Oakland

Washtenaw

St. Clair

Macomb

Monroe

Wayne

2000-2010

2010-2020

Short-term Population Change Change in Population, 2000-2020

More than 3,000 loss

Loss, 501 to 3,000

Little change, 500 loss to 500 gain

Gain, 501 to 3,000

More than 3,000 gain

Livingston

Oakland

Washtenaw

St. Clair

Macomb

Monroe

Wayne

Long-term Population Change Change in Population, 2010-2040

Source: Census , SEMCOG 2040 Forecast

Less than 10%

10% to 14.9%

15% to 19.9%

20% to 24.9%

25% to 29.9%

30% or more

2010 2040

Senior Population Change Percent of Population Age 65+, 2010 and 2040

Source: SEMCOG 2040 Forecast

Continued Household Growth Change in Households, 2010-2040

More than 100 Loss

Little Change, -100 to 300

Gain, 301 to 1,000

Large Gain, 1,000 to 3,000

More than 3,000 Gain

SANILAC

LUCAS (Michigan/Ohio State Line)

LEN

AW

EE

LENAWEE

JAC

KS

ON

LAPEER

OA

KL

AN

D

MACOMB

MARINECITY

WIXOM

SOUTHFIELD

BIRMINGHAM

NOVI

WOODHAVEN

INKSTER

PARKALLEN

DEARBORN

GROSSEPOINTE

LUNAPIER

GROSSE POINTE

Beach

Holly

Franklin HillsBinghamFarms

Lake

SHORESGROSSE POINTE

WALES

FORT GRATIOT

COTTRELLVILLE

BLOOMFIELD

LIVINGSTON

LIVINGSTON

WASHTENAW

MONROE

MONROE

WAYNE

ST.

CL

AIR

ST. CLAIR

MO

NR

OE

WASHTENAW

WA

SH

TE

NA

WL

IVIN

GS

TO

N

OA

KLA

ND

LIV

ING

ST

ON

OAKLANDMACOMB

ST. CLAIR

MA

CO

MB

ST.

CL

AIR

WA

SH

TE

NA

W

WA

YN

E

SouthRockwood

Armada

Manchester

Maybee

New Haven

Milford

BERLIN

MUSSEY

LYNN

ADDISON

ST. CLAIR

LENOX CASCO

RAYWASHINGTONOAKLAND

SHELBY

CLAY

GREENWOODBURTCHVILLE

BROCKWAY

BRUCE

KENOCKEE

ARMADARICHMOND

COLUMBUS

EAST CHINA

CHESTERFIELD

CHINA

OXFORD

ORION

HARRISON

HOLLY GROVELAND BRANDON

WEST BLOOMFIELD

COMMERCE

LYON

INDEPENDENCESPRINGFIELDROSE

TYRONE

HARTLAND HIGHLANDWATERFORD

BRIGHTON MILFORD

GREEN OAK

WHITE LAKE

DEERFIELDCONWAY COHOCTAH

HOWELL OCEOLA

GENOA

HAMBURGUNADILLA PUTNAM

LYNDON DEXTER WEBSTER NORTHFIELD

SYLVAN LIMA SCIO

SHARON LODIFREEDOM YPSILANTI

MANCHESTERBRIDGEWATER SALINE AUGUSTA

SALEM

SUPERIOR

PITTSFIELD

SUMPTER

CANTON

HURON

BROWNSTOWN

GROSSE ILE

BROWNSTOWN

ASH

VAN BUREN

PLYMOUTH

NORTHVILLE

MONROE

LONDON EXETER

ERIEBEDFORDWHITEFORD

SUMMERFIELD

LASALLE

FRENCHTOWN

FRENCHTOWN

IDA

RAISINVILLE

BERLIN

GRANT

KIMBALL

ING

HA

M

SHIAWASSEE

GENESEE

GENESEE

OAKLAND

WAYNE

MA

CO

MB

LA

PE

ER

Orion

TAYLOR

AUBURN HILLS

ST. CLAIR

TROY

UTICA

PORTHURON

ALGONAC

MARYSVILLE

EASTPOINTE

ST. CLAIR SHORES

ROSEVILLE

WARREN

MADISONHEIGHTS

CENTER LINE

ROCHESTER HILLS

STERLING HEIGHTS

CLAWSON

PARKOAK

FERNDALE

PLEASANT RIDGE

HILLS

PONTIAC

BERKLEY

ROYALOAK

HUNTINGTONWOODS

HAZELPARK

VILLAGELATHRUP

FARMINGTON

FARMINGTON HILLS

LIVONIA

HIGHLAND PARK

HAMTRAMCK

FARMS

GROSSE

PARKPOINTE

DETROIT

DEARBORNHEIGHTS

RIVER ROUGE

ECORSE

SOUTHGATEWYANDOTTE

FLAT ROCK

WAYNE

ROMULUS

HARPERWOODS

GROSSE POINTEWOODS

WESTLAND

LINCOLNPARK

GARDENCITY

MELVINDALE

RIVERVIEW

TRENTON

ROCKWOOD

Leonard

Pinckney

Wolverine

Oxford

Romeo

Fowlerville

Barton

Ortonville

Capac

Estral

Dexter

Lake

CHELSEA

Beverly

Emmett

Hills

Carleton

Dundee

REDFORD

PORT HURON

YPSILANTI

WALLED LAKE

YALE

ROCHESTER

BLOOMFIELD

SALINE

HOWELL

NORTHVILLE

SOUTH LYON

LAKE VILLAGEORCHARD

ANGELUSLAKE

SYLVAN LAKE

KEEGO HARBOR

MEMPHIS

FRASER

MONROE

GIBRALTAR

PLYMOUTH

MILAN

NEW BALTIMORE

RICHMOND

BELLEVILLE

CLARKSTON

BRIGHTON

MOUNTCLEMENS

BROWNSTOWN

PETERSBURG

DUNDEE

ANN ARBOR

ANN ARBOR

ROYAL OAK

HANDY

IOSCO MARION

YORK

MILAN

RILEY

IRA

MACOMB

CLINTON

EMMETTCLYDE

More than 100 loss

Little Change, -100 to 100Gain, 100 to 1,000

Large Gain, 1,000 to 3,000More than 3,000 gainConfidential

Job Gains Most Everywhere Change in Employment, 2010-2040

Source: SEMCOG 2040 Forecast

More than 50 loss

Little Change, -50 to 50Gain, 51 to 500

Large Gain, 501 to 3,000More than 3,000 gainConfidential

Source: SEMCOG 2040 Forecast

Gain in Knowledge-Based Services Jobs Change in Sector Employment, 2010-2040

Little Change -10 to 50Small Gain, 51 to 500Moderate Gain, 501 to 2,000Large Gain, 2,001 to 4,000More than 4,000 gainConfidential

Source: SEMCOG 2040 Forecast

Gain in Private Education & Health Care Change in Sector Employment, 2010-2040

Southeast Michigan Council of Governments