NOAA Sandy Supplemental Program CIRA Grants 2 CIRA Fellows
Meeting May 6, 2015 HIWPP: High Impact Weather Prediction Project
SHOUT: Sensing Hazards with Operational Unmanned Technology
Slide 3
Sensing Hazards with Operational Unmanned Technology (SHOUT) -
Data Management and Visualization CIRA Principal Investigator: Sher
Schranz CIRA Co-PIJebb Stewart In partnership with: Robbie Hood
(NOAA/OAR/UAS) John Schneider (NOAA/OAR/ESRL) Activity Period: 1
July 2014 30 June 2017 CIRA Funding:$ 587,646 CIRA Management:Sher
Schranz
Slide 4
The development of a SHOUT information management strategic
plan will be performed by Cooperative Institute for Research in the
Atmosphere (CIRA). The team will also work collaboratively with
existing NOAA information management teams to develop and
demonstrate real-time data delivery, visualization, and archival
for the UAS observations. An emphasis will be placed on leveraging
current work, but providing additional resources so the UAS
observations will be managed and utilized in parallel with other
data sets and not sequentially after other data sets. These tasks
will include the development and implementation of the SHOUT
information management requirements. Project Summary
Slide 5
This project in a delayed start mode. UAS data are being
prepared by non-CIRA team members. Once received, the project tasks
will begin. Some preliminary work has been done: Participated in
planning and preparation meetings with NOAA, CIRES and CIRA team
members Identified three realms of real-time UAS data
visualization: 1-real time field data tracking and collection, 2
real time field data visualization for operational users and 3-
scientific visualization for data analysis, comparison and impacts
studies., Year 1, Milestone 2. Generated diagrams for initial
architecture for UAS data once it is received at ESRL.
Accomplishments
Slide 6
CIRA Contribution to MADIS (Meteorological Assimilation and
Data Ingest System) Transition to NWS Operations CIRA Principal
Investigator: Sher Schranz CIRA Co-PITom Kent In partnership with:
Greg Pratt (NOAA/OAR/ESRL) John Schneider (NOAA/OAR/ESRL) Activity
Period: 1 July 2014 30 June 2016 CIRA Funding:$ 391,996 CIRA
Management:Sher Schranz
Slide 7
Project Summary MADIS attained Initial Operating Capability
(IOC) at National Weather Service (NWS) in September 2010 with
backup systems running at the Earth System Research Laboratory. Due
to funding shortfalls, MADIS has failed to reach Final Operating
Capability (FOC) at NWS. MADIS FOC is defined as centralized MADIS
operational services being provided by the NWS Integrated
Dissemination Program (IDP) MADIS primary operational systems will
run at the IDPs College Park facility and backup operational
systems will run at the IDPs Boulder facility. Both facilities will
be hosted and maintained by NCEP NCO personnel. MADIS data will be
archived at the National Environmental Satellite, Data, and
Information Service (NESDIS) National Climate Data Center
(NCDC).
Slide 8
Accomplishments Moved MADIS primary ingest to NCO IDP blade
server at College Park. Moved MADIS primary distribution services
to NCO IDP blade server at College Park. Moved MADIS primary
processing to NCO IDP blade server at College Park. Moved MADIS
data recovery system to NCO blade server at College Park. Moved CAP
dialers to NCO IDP facility.
Slide 9
NOAAs Observing System Experiments (OSE) and Observing System
Simulation Experiments (OSSE) in support of the Sensing Hazards
with Operational Unmanned Technology (SHOUT) Program - Development
and Testing of Sampling Strategies for Unmanned Aerial Systems CIRA
Principal Investigator: Sher Schranz CIRA Co-PIHongli Wang In
partnership with: Lidia Cucurull (CIRES) Activity Period: 1 July
2014 30 June 2017 CIRA Funding:$ 435,107 CIRA Management:Sher
Schranz
Slide 10
Project Summary Under the SHOUT project, OSE and OSSE
experiments will be performed to evaluate the impact of current and
potential environmental observations on the Global Hawk to mitigate
a potential gap in satellite data. In support of these experiments,
strategies will be developed for flights of the Global Hawk that
will be directed to appropriate locations for execution of the OSSE
and OSE experiments
Slide 11
Accomplishments This project is not currently fully staffed.
Staffing will increase in Feb. 2015. However, some work has been
done on this project: For the quick OSSE, we had decided to use
ECMWF (T511) nature run, and energy norm to estimate analysis
error. We wrote scripts to plot analysis error patterns at pressure
levels. We put more effort on another Sandy Supplementary project
in this quarter, and will put more efforts on the SHOUT project in
next performance period. We investigated the feasibility of a new
targeting algorithm, nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent method
(NLLE). We updated the method by introducing breeding vectors to
estimate error growth rate. A typhoon/hurricane case during 02-05
Aug 2011 over the West Pacific Ocean was studied. Four breeding
vectors were obtained using the Weather Research and Forecasting
(WRF) model in a regional domain. We found the NLLE method is a
useful tool to capture the dynamical sensitive region with fast
perturbation growth rate, which might be significantly influence
the hurricane prediction. We also found this method has a
limitation that it can only trace back perturbation signals back in
certain verification regions
Slide 12
CIRAs Participation in the Establishment of a NOAA Laboratory
Activity for Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) CIRA
Principal Investigator: Sher Schranz CIRA Co-PIHongli Wang In
partnership with: Lidia Cucurull (CIRES) Activity Period: 1 July
2014 30 June 2017 CIRA Funding:$ 98,253 CIRA Management:Sher
Schranz
Slide 13
The primary activity to be performed in this proposal with the
Sandy Supplemental funding will be the development of a new global
OSSE system capability to perform realistic quantitative
assessments related to NOAAs operational aircraft reconnaissance
missions. Project Summary
Slide 14
1) Comparison of Cyclone Track Statistics between the 7-km
Cubed-Sphere GEOS-5 Nature Run (G5NR) and the GDAS Analysis. 2)
Estimation of NCEP GFS model predictability using G5NR initial
conditions. A poster presentation of these results was submitted
and accepted by 2015 AMS annual meeting. Accomplishments
Slide 15
The National Weather Services Office of Science and Technologys
Hazardous Weather Testbed: Evaluation of Earth Networks Total
Lightning Products for NWS Warning Services in the Hazardous
Weather Testbed CIRA Principal Investigator: Sher Schranz CIRA
Co-PIJim Ramer In partnership with: Woody Roberts(NOAA/OAR/ESRL)
Activity Period: 1 July 2014 30 June 2016 CIRA Funding:$ 88,702
CIRA Management:Sher Schranz
Slide 16
Initial development and production of both the raw Earth
Networks flash locations and the ENI DTA system inside of the
AWIPS2 platform will be led by CIRA working at the OAR/Global
Systems Division (GSD) and coordinating with the HWT activities at
the National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL). Included in this
initial development is the implementation of point locations for
the ENI identified flashes, to be displayed as point locations at 1
min update rates. Secondarily, will be the inclusion of ENI total
lightning products associated with the DTA including the DTA
polygon, cluster identification and past track, plus associated
flash rate time series Following CIRA development and
implementation of the ENI products into AWIPS2, forecaster
evaluation of the ENI products will be completed in the HWT Project
Summary
Slide 17
AWIPS II Platform Development: Completed DTA polygon display
logic for the HWT AWIPS II system. This capability will enable the
use of a lightning cell time series display needed by forecasters
during high impact weather events that occur during severe
thunderstorms. Additional prototyping is planned using the
LAPS/MSAS workset which runs transparently in the AWIPS II
environment. Using this method, redbook data output is verified.
Evaluation: Meetings were held to plan the next phase of the
evaluation activity. A meeting with all collaborators from CIMMS,
NSSL and the NWS is planned for November, 2014.
Accomplishments
Slide 18
HIWPP Projects CIRA HIWPP Projects are integrated across HIWPP
and include multiple NOAA Labs and Cooperative Institutes
Slide 19
NOAAs High Impact Weather Prediction Project (HIWPP) Test
Program: Real-Time IT Operations CIRA Principal Investigator: Sher
Schranz CIRA Co-PIBonny Strong In partnership with: Tim Schneider
(NOAA/OAR/ESRL) Activity Period: 1 July 2014 30 June 2017 CIRA
Funding:$ 322,630 CIRA Management:Sher Schranz
Slide 20
Project Summary HIWPP is working to: Improve current global
weather models by increasing resolution to 10-13km Test
next-generation global weather models in a real-time running mode
Use a nested moving hurricane model that zeroes in on resolution
within a global model allowing for more detailed hurricane track
and intensity information Evaluate the National Multi-Model for
Ensembles' ability to improve forecasts out to months and use
cutting-edge visualization technology Partner with the broader
weather community to assess research models in real time See the
project website: http://hiwpp.noaa.gov/
Slide 21
HIWPP Test Program Management
Slide 22
Accomplishments HIWPP Storage System High Availability and
Failover for Model Data Delivery
Slide 23
Accomplishments o A policy has been developed and reviewed with
both NOAA legal and policy personnel and within the HIWPP project.
Components of the Open Data Initiative include: Announcing the
opportunity to the public Providing a mechanism for users to
register to receive model data and/or NEIS visualization tools
Identifying risks and mitigation strategies if expected demand for
data exceeds available capacity Designing a mechanism for users to
provide feedback about model performance Designing a test plan and
rollout process o The system, along with open access to available
HIWPP data feeds and NEIS via the Open Data Initiative went live in
Jan, 2015. The program counts CIRA as the first live data user.
Additional timeline info: February March 2015 first virtual meeting
of HIWPP data users took place June 2015 HIWPP Open Data Workshop
January 2016 HIWPP Open Data Initiative concludes
Slide 24
CIRAs Support to NOAAs High Impact Weather Prediction Project
(HIWPP) Test Program: Ensemble Statistical Post-Processing CIRA
Principal Investigator: Sher Schranz CIRA Co-PIIsidora Jankov In
partnership with: Tim Schneider (NOAA/OAR/ESRL) Activity Period: 1
July 2014 30 June 2017 CIRA Funding:$ 40,800 CIRA Management:Sher
Schranz
Slide 25
The main goal of this task is to statistically combine
information from a mini-ensemble consisting of three deterministic,
hydrostatic, high-resolution global models and coarser resolution
global ensembles to produce the best estimate of surface
temperature, wind, precipitation, and 500-mb anomaly correlation.
The models of interest are the 13km, 15km, and 20 km deterministic
runs from the GFS, FIM, and NAVGEM global models, respectively, and
corresponding coarser resolution ensembles (10-20 members). For
this task, more sophisticated and innovative statistical approaches
will be explored. The goal is to provide the best estimate of model
skill, especially for the aforementioned variables. The product
will be produced in a real-time experimental mode and delivered to
HIWPP trusted partners for evaluation and feedback. Project
Summary
Slide 26
The first year milestone of delivering a real-time system for
producing the best estimate and associated probability and
distribution for surface temperature, wind, precipitation and 500mb
geopotential height at each grid point on the globe has been
accomplished. For baseline, arithmetic mean has been used. The real
time system is highly modular allowing inclusion of various models,
analyses, observations and post-processing methods as well as
expanding the set of variables processed. Accomplishments
Slide 27
CIRAs Support to NOAAs High Impact Weather Predict ( HIWPP)
Test Program: Visualization and Extraction via NEIS CIRA Principal
Investigator: Sher Schranz CIRA Co-PIJebb Stewart In partnership
with: Tim Schneider (NOAA/OAR/ESRL) John Schneider (NOAA/OAR/ESRL)
Activity Period: 1 July 2014 30 June 2017 CIRA Funding:$ 617,277
CIRA Management:Sher Schranz
Slide 28
Essential to the utility of the new modeling capability will be
a system that will enable real-time access to global-scale and
regionally sub-setted model data for a diverse community of users.
This system will build upon the prototype NOAA Earth Information
System (NEIS) developing advanced dynamic visualization and
analytics in addition to on-demand access and integration of
experimental global-scale models and other earth system data.
Project Summary
Slide 29
Demonstrated enhanced NEIS capabilities at HIWPP science team
meeting in College Park, MD September 18th- 19 2014. Delivered beta
NEIS visualization client to small subset of users to begin initial
testing and gather feedback on tools and capabilities. System went
live with the Open Data Initiative in January, 2015
Accomplishments
Slide 30
NEIS visualization software displaying global composite IR
satellite imagery on the left sphere with the forecasted derived IR
Imagery from the NOAA FIM model More information at:
http://esrl.noaa.gov/neis/
Slide 31
NEIS HIWPP Functional Architecture
Slide 32
NOAAs High Impact Weather Prediction Project (HIWPP) Test
Program: Fine-Grain Computing CIRA Principal Investigator: Sher
Schranz CIRA Co-PITom Henderson In partnership with: Tim Schneider
(NOAA/OAR/ESRL) John Schneider (NOAA/OAR/ESRL) Activity Period: 1
July 2014 30 June 2017 CIRA Funding:$ 946,256 CIRA Management:Sher
Schranz
Slide 33
First, code will be analyzed and modified as needed to expose
loop level parallelism and data organization will be improved to
optimize memory accesses, reduce branching, and other optimizations
Second, industry-standard openMP and openACC directives will be
inserted into the Fortran codes for MIC and GPU parallelization.
Third, model optimization and scaling to thousands of Fine-Grain
nodes will be the focus of the final stage in parallelization for
MPFG. Project Summary
Slide 34
Preliminary work to add a single OpenMP loop around the entire
physics was completed. Data structures for physics fields were
modified to allow each OpenMP thread to access small sets of
columns called chunks. CIRA researchers ported the FIM dynamics to
Intel Xeon Phi and tuned performance. CIRA researchers optimized
MPI communications in the Scalable Modeling System to improve
performance on both NVIDIA GPU and Intel Xeon Phi architectures.
This work has consistently improved performance on traditional CPUs
as well as on GPUs and Xeon Phi. CIRA researchers presented results
of these ongoing efforts at the 2014 Heterogeneous Multi-Core
Workshop. This yearly workshop, held at NCAR, focuses on MPFG
programming for weather and climate prediction. Workshop agenda and
presentations can be found online at
https://www2.cisl.ucar.edu/heterogeneous-multi-core-4-
workshop/2014/agenda. Results were also presented at the IXPUG
conference in Austin, TX in July, 2014.
https://www2.cisl.ucar.edu/heterogeneous-multi-core-4-
workshop/2014/agenda Accomplishments