Sher Schranz PI. NOAA Sandy Supplemental Program CIRA Grants 2 CIRA Fellows Meeting May 6, 2015...

Sher Schranz PI

NOAA Sandy Supplemental Program CIRA Grants 2 CIRA Fellows Meeting May 6, 2015 HIWPP: High Impact Weather Prediction Project SHOUT: Sensing Hazards with Operational Unmanned Technology

Sensing Hazards with Operational Unmanned Technology (SHOUT) - Data Management and Visualization CIRA Principal Investigator: Sher Schranz CIRA Co-PIJebb Stewart In partnership with: Robbie Hood (NOAA/OAR/UAS) John Schneider (NOAA/OAR/ESRL) Activity Period: 1 July 2014 30 June 2017 CIRA Funding:$ 587,646 CIRA Management:Sher Schranz

The development of a SHOUT information management strategic plan will be performed by Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA). The team will also work collaboratively with existing NOAA information management teams to develop and demonstrate real-time data delivery, visualization, and archival for the UAS observations. An emphasis will be placed on leveraging current work, but providing additional resources so the UAS observations will be managed and utilized in parallel with other data sets and not sequentially after other data sets. These tasks will include the development and implementation of the SHOUT information management requirements. Project Summary

This project in a delayed start mode. UAS data are being prepared by non-CIRA team members. Once received, the project tasks will begin. Some preliminary work has been done: Participated in planning and preparation meetings with NOAA, CIRES and CIRA team members Identified three realms of real-time UAS data visualization: 1-real time field data tracking and collection, 2 real time field data visualization for operational users and 3- scientific visualization for data analysis, comparison and impacts studies., Year 1, Milestone 2. Generated diagrams for initial architecture for UAS data once it is received at ESRL. Accomplishments

CIRA Contribution to MADIS (Meteorological Assimilation and Data Ingest System) Transition to NWS Operations CIRA Principal Investigator: Sher Schranz CIRA Co-PITom Kent In partnership with: Greg Pratt (NOAA/OAR/ESRL) John Schneider (NOAA/OAR/ESRL) Activity Period: 1 July 2014 30 June 2016 CIRA Funding:$ 391,996 CIRA Management:Sher Schranz

Project Summary MADIS attained Initial Operating Capability (IOC) at National Weather Service (NWS) in September 2010 with backup systems running at the Earth System Research Laboratory. Due to funding shortfalls, MADIS has failed to reach Final Operating Capability (FOC) at NWS. MADIS FOC is defined as centralized MADIS operational services being provided by the NWS Integrated Dissemination Program (IDP) MADIS primary operational systems will run at the IDPs College Park facility and backup operational systems will run at the IDPs Boulder facility. Both facilities will be hosted and maintained by NCEP NCO personnel. MADIS data will be archived at the National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS) National Climate Data Center (NCDC).

Accomplishments Moved MADIS primary ingest to NCO IDP blade server at College Park. Moved MADIS primary distribution services to NCO IDP blade server at College Park. Moved MADIS primary processing to NCO IDP blade server at College Park. Moved MADIS data recovery system to NCO blade server at College Park. Moved CAP dialers to NCO IDP facility.

NOAAs Observing System Experiments (OSE) and Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSE) in support of the Sensing Hazards with Operational Unmanned Technology (SHOUT) Program - Development and Testing of Sampling Strategies for Unmanned Aerial Systems CIRA Principal Investigator: Sher Schranz CIRA Co-PIHongli Wang In partnership with: Lidia Cucurull (CIRES) Activity Period: 1 July 2014 30 June 2017 CIRA Funding:$ 435,107 CIRA Management:Sher Schranz

Project Summary Under the SHOUT project, OSE and OSSE experiments will be performed to evaluate the impact of current and potential environmental observations on the Global Hawk to mitigate a potential gap in satellite data. In support of these experiments, strategies will be developed for flights of the Global Hawk that will be directed to appropriate locations for execution of the OSSE and OSE experiments

Accomplishments This project is not currently fully staffed. Staffing will increase in Feb. 2015. However, some work has been done on this project: For the quick OSSE, we had decided to use ECMWF (T511) nature run, and energy norm to estimate analysis error. We wrote scripts to plot analysis error patterns at pressure levels. We put more effort on another Sandy Supplementary project in this quarter, and will put more efforts on the SHOUT project in next performance period. We investigated the feasibility of a new targeting algorithm, nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent method (NLLE). We updated the method by introducing breeding vectors to estimate error growth rate. A typhoon/hurricane case during 02-05 Aug 2011 over the West Pacific Ocean was studied. Four breeding vectors were obtained using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in a regional domain. We found the NLLE method is a useful tool to capture the dynamical sensitive region with fast perturbation growth rate, which might be significantly influence the hurricane prediction. We also found this method has a limitation that it can only trace back perturbation signals back in certain verification regions

CIRAs Participation in the Establishment of a NOAA Laboratory Activity for Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) CIRA Principal Investigator: Sher Schranz CIRA Co-PIHongli Wang In partnership with: Lidia Cucurull (CIRES) Activity Period: 1 July 2014 30 June 2017 CIRA Funding:$ 98,253 CIRA Management:Sher Schranz

The primary activity to be performed in this proposal with the Sandy Supplemental funding will be the development of a new global OSSE system capability to perform realistic quantitative assessments related to NOAAs operational aircraft reconnaissance missions. Project Summary

1) Comparison of Cyclone Track Statistics between the 7-km Cubed-Sphere GEOS-5 Nature Run (G5NR) and the GDAS Analysis. 2) Estimation of NCEP GFS model predictability using G5NR initial conditions. A poster presentation of these results was submitted and accepted by 2015 AMS annual meeting. Accomplishments

The National Weather Services Office of Science and Technologys Hazardous Weather Testbed: Evaluation of Earth Networks Total Lightning Products for NWS Warning Services in the Hazardous Weather Testbed CIRA Principal Investigator: Sher Schranz CIRA Co-PIJim Ramer In partnership with: Woody Roberts(NOAA/OAR/ESRL) Activity Period: 1 July 2014 30 June 2016 CIRA Funding:$ 88,702 CIRA Management:Sher Schranz

Initial development and production of both the raw Earth Networks flash locations and the ENI DTA system inside of the AWIPS2 platform will be led by CIRA working at the OAR/Global Systems Division (GSD) and coordinating with the HWT activities at the National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL). Included in this initial development is the implementation of point locations for the ENI identified flashes, to be displayed as point locations at 1 min update rates. Secondarily, will be the inclusion of ENI total lightning products associated with the DTA including the DTA polygon, cluster identification and past track, plus associated flash rate time series Following CIRA development and implementation of the ENI products into AWIPS2, forecaster evaluation of the ENI products will be completed in the HWT Project Summary

AWIPS II Platform Development: Completed DTA polygon display logic for the HWT AWIPS II system. This capability will enable the use of a lightning cell time series display needed by forecasters during high impact weather events that occur during severe thunderstorms. Additional prototyping is planned using the LAPS/MSAS workset which runs transparently in the AWIPS II environment. Using this method, redbook data output is verified. Evaluation: Meetings were held to plan the next phase of the evaluation activity. A meeting with all collaborators from CIMMS, NSSL and the NWS is planned for November, 2014. Accomplishments

HIWPP Projects CIRA HIWPP Projects are integrated across HIWPP and include multiple NOAA Labs and Cooperative Institutes

NOAAs High Impact Weather Prediction Project (HIWPP) Test Program: Real-Time IT Operations CIRA Principal Investigator: Sher Schranz CIRA Co-PIBonny Strong In partnership with: Tim Schneider (NOAA/OAR/ESRL) Activity Period: 1 July 2014 30 June 2017 CIRA Funding:$ 322,630 CIRA Management:Sher Schranz

Project Summary HIWPP is working to: Improve current global weather models by increasing resolution to 10-13km Test next-generation global weather models in a real-time running mode Use a nested moving hurricane model that zeroes in on resolution within a global model allowing for more detailed hurricane track and intensity information Evaluate the National Multi-Model for Ensembles' ability to improve forecasts out to months and use cutting-edge visualization technology Partner with the broader weather community to assess research models in real time See the project website: http://hiwpp.noaa.gov/

HIWPP Test Program Management

Accomplishments HIWPP Storage System High Availability and Failover for Model Data Delivery

Accomplishments o A policy has been developed and reviewed with both NOAA legal and policy personnel and within the HIWPP project. Components of the Open Data Initiative include: Announcing the opportunity to the public Providing a mechanism for users to register to receive model data and/or NEIS visualization tools Identifying risks and mitigation strategies if expected demand for data exceeds available capacity Designing a mechanism for users to provide feedback about model performance Designing a test plan and rollout process o The system, along with open access to available HIWPP data feeds and NEIS via the Open Data Initiative went live in Jan, 2015. The program counts CIRA as the first live data user. Additional timeline info: February March 2015 first virtual meeting of HIWPP data users took place June 2015 HIWPP Open Data Workshop January 2016 HIWPP Open Data Initiative concludes

CIRAs Support to NOAAs High Impact Weather Prediction Project (HIWPP) Test Program: Ensemble Statistical Post-Processing CIRA Principal Investigator: Sher Schranz CIRA Co-PIIsidora Jankov In partnership with: Tim Schneider (NOAA/OAR/ESRL) Activity Period: 1 July 2014 30 June 2017 CIRA Funding:$ 40,800 CIRA Management:Sher Schranz

The main goal of this task is to statistically combine information from a mini-ensemble consisting of three deterministic, hydrostatic, high-resolution global models and coarser resolution global ensembles to produce the best estimate of surface temperature, wind, precipitation, and 500-mb anomaly correlation. The models of interest are the 13km, 15km, and 20 km deterministic runs from the GFS, FIM, and NAVGEM global models, respectively, and corresponding coarser resolution ensembles (10-20 members). For this task, more sophisticated and innovative statistical approaches will be explored. The goal is to provide the best estimate of model skill, especially for the aforementioned variables. The product will be produced in a real-time experimental mode and delivered to HIWPP trusted partners for evaluation and feedback. Project Summary

The first year milestone of delivering a real-time system for producing the best estimate and associated probability and distribution for surface temperature, wind, precipitation and 500mb geopotential height at each grid point on the globe has been accomplished. For baseline, arithmetic mean has been used. The real time system is highly modular allowing inclusion of various models, analyses, observations and post-processing methods as well as expanding the set of variables processed. Accomplishments

CIRAs Support to NOAAs High Impact Weather Predict ( HIWPP) Test Program: Visualization and Extraction via NEIS CIRA Principal Investigator: Sher Schranz CIRA Co-PIJebb Stewart In partnership with: Tim Schneider (NOAA/OAR/ESRL) John Schneider (NOAA/OAR/ESRL) Activity Period: 1 July 2014 30 June 2017 CIRA Funding:$ 617,277 CIRA Management:Sher Schranz

Essential to the utility of the new modeling capability will be a system that will enable real-time access to global-scale and regionally sub-setted model data for a diverse community of users. This system will build upon the prototype NOAA Earth Information System (NEIS) developing advanced dynamic visualization and analytics in addition to on-demand access and integration of experimental global-scale models and other earth system data. Project Summary

Demonstrated enhanced NEIS capabilities at HIWPP science team meeting in College Park, MD September 18th- 19 2014. Delivered beta NEIS visualization client to small subset of users to begin initial testing and gather feedback on tools and capabilities. System went live with the Open Data Initiative in January, 2015 Accomplishments

NEIS visualization software displaying global composite IR satellite imagery on the left sphere with the forecasted derived IR Imagery from the NOAA FIM model More information at: http://esrl.noaa.gov/neis/

NEIS HIWPP Functional Architecture

NOAAs High Impact Weather Prediction Project (HIWPP) Test Program: Fine-Grain Computing CIRA Principal Investigator: Sher Schranz CIRA Co-PITom Henderson In partnership with: Tim Schneider (NOAA/OAR/ESRL) John Schneider (NOAA/OAR/ESRL) Activity Period: 1 July 2014 30 June 2017 CIRA Funding:$ 946,256 CIRA Management:Sher Schranz

First, code will be analyzed and modified as needed to expose loop level parallelism and data organization will be improved to optimize memory accesses, reduce branching, and other optimizations Second, industry-standard openMP and openACC directives will be inserted into the Fortran codes for MIC and GPU parallelization. Third, model optimization and scaling to thousands of Fine-Grain nodes will be the focus of the final stage in parallelization for MPFG. Project Summary

Preliminary work to add a single OpenMP loop around the entire physics was completed. Data structures for physics fields were modified to allow each OpenMP thread to access small sets of columns called chunks. CIRA researchers ported the FIM dynamics to Intel Xeon Phi and tuned performance. CIRA researchers optimized MPI communications in the Scalable Modeling System to improve performance on both NVIDIA GPU and Intel Xeon Phi architectures. This work has consistently improved performance on traditional CPUs as well as on GPUs and Xeon Phi. CIRA researchers presented results of these ongoing efforts at the 2014 Heterogeneous Multi-Core Workshop. This yearly workshop, held at NCAR, focuses on MPFG programming for weather and climate prediction. Workshop agenda and presentations can be found online at https://www2.cisl.ucar.edu/heterogeneous-multi-core-4- workshop/2014/agenda. Results were also presented at the IXPUG conference in Austin, TX in July, 2014. https://www2.cisl.ucar.edu/heterogeneous-multi-core-4- workshop/2014/agenda Accomplishments

HIWPP Project Management CIRA/ESRL HIWPP Project Manager: Bonny Strong NOAA/ESRL HIWPP Project Manager: Tim Schneider CIRA Staffing and Spending Oversight: Sher Schranz

Sher Schranz PI. NOAA Sandy Supplemental Program CIRA Grants 2 CIRA Fellows Meeting May 6, 2015...

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