Scientific and Societal Challenges of the Next 20 Years
A presentation to: The National Science Foundation Facilities Workshop
Alexander E. MacDonald
Earth System Research Laboratory – Director
DAA – OAR LCI
September 24, 2007
Boulder, Colorado
Talk Summary
Scientific and Societal Challenges of the Next 20 Years
1. Climate Change is Driving Societal Change
2. Science for ADAPTATION
Example 1: Hurricanes
Example 2: Arctic ice melt
Example 3: Greenland melt
Example 4: Colorado river flow
3. Science for MITIGATION
Example 1: Ocean acidity
Example 2: Runaway release of Arctic carbon
The quality of a prediction depends first on scientific study to understand the physical processes. Then – and only then – it can be correctly incorporated into analysis and prediction models.
Approach
1. Take the right observations.
2. Understand the processes (physical or chemical).
3. Incorporate into prediction models.
4. Change policy based on better knowledge.
Talk Summary
Scientific and Societal Challenges of the Next 20 Years
1. Climate Change is Driving Societal Change
2. Science for ADAPTATION
Example 1: Hurricanes
Example 2: Arctic ice melt
Example 3: Greenland melt
Example 4: Colorado river flow
3. Science for MITIGATION
Example 1: Ocean acidity
Example 2: Runaway release of Arctic carbon
Talk Summary
Scientific and Societal Challenges of the Next 20 Years
1. Climate Change is Driving Societal Change
2. Science for ADAPTATION
Example 1: Hurricanes
Example 2: Arctic ice melt
Example 3: Greenland melt
Example 4: Colorado river flow
3. Science for MITIGATION
Example 1: Ocean acidity
Example 2: Runaway release of Arctic carbon
7
HWIND Aerosonde Plots/Ophelia 16 Aug, 2005
969696
Satellite image at time of second closest approach of Aerosonde to wind center and just after WP-3D SFMR penetration across the eye.
New NSF assets such as HIAPERcan improve our understanding of storm environments.
Talk Summary
Scientific and Societal Challenges of the Next 20 Years
1. Climate Change is Driving Societal Change
2. Science for ADAPTATION
Example 1: Hurricanes
Example 2: Arctic ice melt
Example 3: Greenland melt
Example 4: Colorado river flow
3. Science for MITIGATION
Example 1: Ocean acidity
Example 2: Runaway release of Arctic carbon
Determine the Fate of the Arctic Ocean Ice
ARCTIC ICE COLLAPSE?
In 2007, the Arctic ocean ice decreased to its lowest ever coverage – a full 15% less.
Permafrost (CCSM)Sept. sea-ice (CCSM)Sept. sea-ice (Observed)
The Community Climate Model shows the summer ice to be bistable, with a rapid transition from ice to ice-free in the 21st century.
(M. Holland et al, 2006)
SHEBA 1998: Scientists spend a year on the Arctic Ocean ice . . .
Arctic clouds may provide a warm blanket . . .
Detailed resolved cloud microphysics/opticalproperties
Aerosol Cloud Interactions
Satellite ValidationNine-year comparison of monthly cloud fractions form surface, TOVS and AVHRR on NOAA satellites And MODIS on NASA satellites over Barrow, Alaska
Cloud Forcing of Surface Radiation Budgets
In the NOAA Unmanned Aircraft Systems program, we propose to fly over the Arctic ice at low and high levels to measure the Arctic energy balance.
Talk Summary
Scientific and Societal Challenges of the Next 20 Years
1. Climate Change is Driving Societal Change
2. Science for ADAPTATION
Example 1: Hurricanes
Example 2: Arctic ice melt
Example 3: Greenland melt
Example 4: Colorado river flow
3. Science for MITIGATION
Example 1: Ocean acidity
Example 2: Runaway release of Arctic carbon
A rapid melt of Arctic ocean ice could increase the rate of Greenland ice melt. This chart from Overpeck shows a 2 meter sea level rise in red.
NOAA would like to work with NSF to make Summit Greenland a full year-round observatory for carbon and other science.
Talk Summary
Scientific and Societal Challenges of the Next 20 Years
1. Climate Change is Driving Societal Change
2. Science for ADAPTATION
Example 1: Hurricanes
Example 2: Arctic ice melt
Example 3: Greenland melt
Example 4: Colorado river flow
3. Science for MITIGATION
Example 1: Ocean acidity
Example 2: Runaway release of Arctic carbon
Colorado River Basin Overview• 7 States, 2 Nations• Fastest Growing Part of
the U.S.• Over 1,450 miles in length• Basin makes up about 8%
of total U.S. lands• Highly variable Natural
Flow which averages 15 MAF
• Irrigates 3.5 million acres• Very Complicated Legal
EnvironmentSource:Reclamation
Population Growth in the Colorado River Basin: 1900 – 2000
Population Growth of Colorado River Basin States1900-2000
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Po
pu
lati
on
in M
illio
ns
Other 6 Basin States Combined
California
1905-1924: 2nd Wettest 20-Year Period in last ~450 Years (Woodhouse et al.)
1978 to 1997: 4th Wettest 20-Year Period in last ~450 Years (Woodhouse et al.)
Population Data Source: www.census.gov
1922: Colorado River Compact Negotiated
California
AZ, CO, NM, NV, UT, WY
Currently: 50+ Million
Trends in Temperature
Mote, et. al, 2005Regonda, et. al, 2005
Stuff and m
Units in Days
Hoerling and Eischeid Eye-Opening Results
Article at: wwa.colorado.edu/resources/climate_change.htmlChristensen et al and Wolter/Doesken Colorado Temps as well
1° C since 1970
Another 2° C Projected to 2050
Average Flow = ~5maf by 2050
Talk Summary
Scientific and Societal Challenges of the Next 20 Years
1. Climate Change is Driving Societal Change
2. Science for ADAPTATION
Example 1: Hurricanes
Example 2: Arctic ice melt
Example 3: Greenland melt
Example 4: Colorado river flow
3. Science for MITIGATION
Example 1: Ocean acidity
Example 2: Runaway release of Arctic carbon
Talk Summary
Scientific and Societal Challenges of the Next 20 Years
1. Climate Change is Driving Societal Change
2. Science for ADAPTATION
Example 1: Hurricanes
Example 2: Arctic ice melt
Example 3: Greenland melt
Example 4: Colorado river flow
3. Science for MITIGATION
Example 1: Ocean acidity
Example 2: Runaway release of Arctic carbon
Past and present variability of marine pH. Future predictions for years shown on the right-hand side of the figure are model-derived values based on IPCC mean scenarios. From Pearson and Palmer adapted by Turley et al. and from the Eur-Oceans Fact Sheet No. 7, "Ocean Acidification - the other half of the CO2 problem", May 2007 .
A new generation of moored buoys is proposed:
Platform and Instrumentation for Continuous Ocean Observation
“PICO”
• Inexpensive
• Moored (Eulerian)
• Low Maintenance (3 year service)
• Easy deployment
• Durable
• Industrial design plan
• Multipurpose ( Crawlers with a variety of sensors that go up and down the taut line that extends to the bottom of the ocean)
• Concept from PMEL
System Description:
NSF’s Ocean Observatories are a crucial part of IOOS and the observational basis for understanding and predicting a changing ocean.
Talk Summary
Scientific and Societal Challenges of the Next 20 Years
1. Climate Change is Driving Societal Change
2. Science for ADAPTATION
Example 1: Hurricanes
Example 2: Arctic ice melt
Example 3: Greenland melt
Example 4: Colorado river flow
3. Science for MITIGATION
Example 1: Ocean acidity
Example 2: Runaway release of Arctic carbon
Will rising temperatures release large
stores of high-latitude carbon?
CARBON: Humankind’s great 21st century challenge.
CARBON TRACKER Developed by ESRL/GMD
"The struggle of today, is not altogether for today -- it is for a vast future also. "
--From the December 3, 1861 Message to Congress
Earth Systems Research Laboratory
Mission: “To observe and understand the earth system and to . . . advance NOAA’s environmental information and service on global-to-local scale.”
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